National India


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National India

  1. 2. Characteristics of AES
  2. 3. <ul><li>Few Drivers… </li></ul><ul><li>Foodgrains have gone up from 51 m t to 212 m t </li></ul><ul><li>NCA as a % of GA has increased from 42 to 47 - intensification </li></ul><ul><li>Foodgrains occupy 65% of the area, oilseeds 15% </li></ul><ul><li>Share of wheat increased from 7.6% to 13%, </li></ul><ul><li>share of oilseeds increased from 8.3% to 15%, </li></ul><ul><li>share of pulses has fallen 16% to 13%, </li></ul><ul><li>share of horticulture increased from 1.3% to 4% </li></ul><ul><li>Total livestock increased from 293m to 480m </li></ul>
  3. 4. <ul><li>Few Drivers … </li></ul><ul><li>92% of available runoff is used for irrigation. Irrigation efficiency amongst the poorest in the world (25-30%) </li></ul><ul><li>NIA covers 57 M ha and has increased from 18% to 40% of NCA - Canals – 31%; wells – 58%; share of wells has shot up; tank irrigation has decreased </li></ul><ul><li>Total NPK risen from 70 K t to 17500 k t; consumption of pesticides 24 k t (1971) to 85 k in 1994-95 </li></ul><ul><li>Tractors have increased from 8600 to 2.2m </li></ul>
  4. 5. AES wise drivers … <ul><li>Arid System (AES) </li></ul><ul><li>Large Irrigation Projects </li></ul><ul><li>Grazing and common lands being put under crops </li></ul><ul><li>Cropping pattern towards water intensive crops </li></ul><ul><li>Growth in livestock </li></ul><ul><li>Mechanization of agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>Coastal System (AES) </li></ul><ul><li>Conversion of forestland to agricultural land/aquaculture </li></ul><ul><li>Growth of modern/intensive aquaculture </li></ul><ul><li>Low level of fertilizer use </li></ul><ul><li>Coir production </li></ul><ul><li>Hill & Mountainous System (AES) </li></ul><ul><li>Shifting cultivation </li></ul><ul><li>Conversion of forest land to agricultural land </li></ul><ul><li>Mono cropping </li></ul><ul><li>Overgrazing </li></ul>
  5. 6. Drivers … <ul><li>Irrigated System (AES) </li></ul><ul><li>Predominance of rice-wheat sequence </li></ul><ul><li>Expansion of irrigation </li></ul><ul><li>Use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides </li></ul><ul><li>Burning of rice-wheat straw </li></ul><ul><li>Rainfed System (AES) </li></ul><ul><li>Spread of agriculture into marginal lands </li></ul><ul><li>Changes in mixed systems </li></ul><ul><li>Inability to invest in adequate inputs/technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Limited scientific progress & infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Spread of irrigation </li></ul><ul><li>Rainy season fallow </li></ul>
  6. 7. <ul><li>Environmental Impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Soil </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Wind erosion in arid systems due to tillage 756-1180 t/ha and due to disc ploughing 2630-3160 t/ha (during a sand storm) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Erosion due to shifting cultivation in H&M systems 30 to 170 t/ha/yr and upto 763 t/ha in hill cultivation of Doon Valley </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Soil salinization is significant in irrigated, arid and rainfed systems due to introduction of canal irrigation – 2.7 mill ha in the 5 states of the Indo gangetic plain, 1.2 mill ha in Rajasthan and 1.4 mill ha in the semi-arid states </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Waterlogging due to rise in groundwater table upto 0.2 to 2 m in arid systems and 1-3 m in irrigated systems </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>1.7 mill ha under waterlogging in the semi-arid states, 2.1 mill ha under the 5 states of Indo-gangetic plain </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  7. 8. <ul><li>Water </li></ul><ul><li>In Arid and Irrigated systems a fall of 30-100 cms in groundwater, annually </li></ul><ul><li>Ground water pollution - About 20-25% of the samples had NO 3 >45 mg L -1 in Bihar and Haryana, while in rainfed states, the 10-50% of them were above NO 3 >45 mg L -1 in the semi-arid areas </li></ul><ul><li>Fertilizer residue of 5*10 6 tons, pesticides residue of 65,000 tons and sediments of 1600 m tons enters the coastal waters of India annually. </li></ul><ul><li>Fall in reservoir capacities and flooding in the plains </li></ul><ul><li>Air </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon emissions due to burning of rice wheat straw in irrigated systems 22,000 Gg/year </li></ul><ul><li>Methane emissions from R-W system </li></ul>
  8. 9. Sample Information
  9. 11. <ul><li>Poverty Module </li></ul><ul><li>Total no. of poor in India: 260 million in 1999-2000 </li></ul><ul><li>About three-quarters of poor live in rural areas and depend mostly on agriculture for their livelihood </li></ul><ul><li>GR: instrumental in improving rural livelihood opportunities since early 1970s </li></ul><ul><li>Trends in Poverty </li></ul><ul><li>Fluctuations till 1973; declining trend after that </li></ul><ul><li>The falling poverty trend: a general feature in almost all the states in India; rates of fall differ substantially </li></ul><ul><li>Issues:Relationship between Agri. growth and poverty reduction extensively studied in India </li></ul>
  10. 12. <ul><li>Does trickle down process operate in India? </li></ul><ul><li>Role of relative food prices, wage rate and dev. expenditure emphasized in several studies </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>   </li></ul><ul><li>NSSO data 1960 onwards and official Poverty line </li></ul><ul><li>Concentration in 7 states: Orissa, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Assam, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, – about 75% of the India’s poor </li></ul><ul><li>High incidence of poverty among the scheduled tribe (46%) and scheduled caste (36%) </li></ul>
  11. 13. <ul><li>Determinants </li></ul><ul><li>Panel data used for 14 major Indian States since 1960 with 20 rounds of NSS surveys. </li></ul><ul><li>State dummies introduced in order to capture state specific effects. </li></ul>
  12. 14. <ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural developments have strong influence on poverty through several channels: income/yield, wage, relative prices. </li></ul><ul><li>Yld channel likely to operate through irrigation whose effect is evident among all social groups </li></ul><ul><li>Evidence indicates concentration of poor in the seven states in North, East and Central parts of India where agri. growth has been rather slow. </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural growth be extended to these regions. </li></ul><ul><li>Poverty is highly prevalent among certain social groups such as ST and SC. </li></ul><ul><li>Efforts must be made to integrate them with mainstream economic activities and strengthen linkage with agri. growth </li></ul><ul><li>SCs spread all over India, STs concentrated in the above region. Regional and social group focus needed in poverty reduction strategy in India </li></ul>
  13. 15. <ul><li>Food Security Concerns in India </li></ul><ul><li>GR and supportive government policies helped national food security and self -sufficiency  </li></ul><ul><li>There is concern about self- sufficiency given falling public investment in agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>Do we need to be self- sufficient in food production?   </li></ul><ul><li>Crop mix to be decided by market forces and re-distributive policies to take care of problems of poverty and food insecurity? </li></ul><ul><li>Given weaknesses in various re-distributive programs this strategy may not work. Besides self-sufficiency provides insurance against disruptions.   </li></ul>
  14. 16. <ul><li>Large country intervention in thin foodgrains market argument </li></ul><ul><li>Aggregate and Household level Food security </li></ul><ul><li>Despite national FS, household FS remains </li></ul><ul><li>Although subsidy programs like PDS and other income generating schemes exist, HH food security concerns remain </li></ul><ul><li>Poor in rural areas are mostly agricultural labour and self employed in agriculture  </li></ul>
  15. 17. <ul><li>Large percentage of children in both rural and urban areas are stunted and wasted </li></ul><ul><li>Per capita nutrient intake of HH have not improved much. Calorie and protein intake of HH remain below corresponding RDA  </li></ul><ul><li>Observed trend fall in Cereal consumption in India   </li></ul><ul><li>Reasoning of diversification of food basket countered by the existing nutritional deficiency, especially among the poorest sections. </li></ul>
  16. 18. <ul><li>Buffer: Kerala Migrants Survey, 2001 </li></ul><ul><li>Gulf emigrant stock 1.32 mil, one in every 5 Hhs; 0.7 m return migrants </li></ul><ul><li>Relative magnitude of Gulf remittances 23% of SDP </li></ul><ul><li>Typical emigrant Ag. worker, works 6yrs abroad, earns 9 times more </li></ul><ul><li>Migrant numbers invested in Ag.---52.46 % </li></ul><ul><li>Gulf savings invested in Ag.---28.7 % </li></ul><ul><li>Ag.workers among Gulf emigrants---22.3 % </li></ul><ul><li>Return migrants settled in Ag.---24.8 % </li></ul><ul><li>Former Ag.workers settled back in Ag.---68.9 % </li></ul><ul><li>Former non-Ag.workers settled in Ag.---3.2 % </li></ul>
  17. 19. <ul><li>Migrant plumbers of Orissa </li></ul><ul><li>2 Field Surveys on plumbers: 413 source, 511 in Delhi </li></ul><ul><li>90 % literate, 70 % from Ag. background, 85 % peasant communities </li></ul><ul><li>Unmarried, aged around 20s, stays around 2 decades in the urban areas </li></ul><ul><li>2/3 rds visit at least once a year, stays 1-3 weeks, 1/4 th participate in Ag. Activities </li></ul><ul><li>2/3 rds of 309 return plumbers settled in Ag. </li></ul><ul><li>82 % make regular remittances back home </li></ul><ul><li>2/3 rds remit for family maintenance, 15 % for land purchase 9 % for house construction, 4 % for repairs, 1 % for irri.well, 1 % for livestock </li></ul>
  18. 20. <ul><li>Social Viability and Agrarian Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Sluggish Growth in production, and productivity and high regional disparity </li></ul><ul><li>Growth of rural NFE less than that in urban. </li></ul><ul><li>Growth of rural NFE in 90’s less than preceding decade </li></ul><ul><li>High rural unemployment rate </li></ul>
  19. 21. <ul><li>High rural NFE in a state or a region does not necessarily imply healthy economic development </li></ul><ul><li>NFE growth around few large cities or industrial corridors </li></ul><ul><li>Large parts of NFE growth induced by poverty </li></ul><ul><li>Rural absorption of low yield surplus labour </li></ul>
  20. 22. <ul><li>Urban economies growing fast but do not absorb labour force </li></ul><ul><li>Inter state migration on decline </li></ul><ul><li>RU migration on decline, putting pressure on rural economy and its infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Prosperous states becoming less hospitable and in-migrating </li></ul><ul><li>Poorer states less out-migrating. </li></ul>
  21. 23. <ul><li>Degenerated peripheralisation </li></ul><ul><li>Urban centres pushing out their problems to their peripheries </li></ul><ul><li>High unemployment, low income, low literacy high IMR and low health indicators in the immediate peripheries </li></ul><ul><li>Low socio-economic indicators in periphery underscoring costs of RU adjustment </li></ul><ul><li>Case Studies from Punjab and TN peasant risk sharing in labour markets to absorb market shocks and burden sharing by region and caste based groups </li></ul>
  22. 24. <ul><li>Culture Module </li></ul><ul><li>Agriculture as an Unrewarding Occupation </li></ul><ul><li>Falling growth rate in agriculture. National Agriculture Policy 2000 says “Agriculture is unrewarding” for cultivators </li></ul><ul><li>Rural agriculture employment prospects limited </li></ul><ul><li>Frequent complaints about soil fertility and agr. infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Increased Rural Non Farm Employment (RNFE) </li></ul><ul><li>45.5% of Rural NDP from RNFE in India </li></ul><ul><li>RNFE not always distress diversification – present among all classes in north India </li></ul>
  23. 25. <ul><li>Variations in North Indian Villages </li></ul><ul><li>Collapse of jajmani system: organic caste division of labour </li></ul><ul><li>In Punjab and west UP, RNFE spread across a variety of occupations from beauty parlours to football stitching </li></ul><ul><li>In Punjab and west UP upper castes present in a variety of RNFE </li></ul><ul><li>In east UP upper caste hardly present in RNFE </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusion: Caste and occup. rigidity stronger in east UP </li></ul>
  24. 26. <ul><li>Caste and Family Relations </li></ul><ul><li>Scheduled Castes become militant, resist performing degrading work </li></ul><ul><li>Agrarian politics not centred around landowner-landless relations </li></ul><ul><li>Now farmers’ movements – against state </li></ul><ul><li>Joint family under duress in all villages studied – more among lower classes </li></ul>
  25. 27. <ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul><ul><li>There is national FS but not sub-national - regional, household, individual </li></ul><ul><li>Agriculture delivered prosperity, but endemic poverty persists: NI, RF, SA regions, East, Central India They envelop STs and SCs, mostly in these regions </li></ul><ul><li>Agri. brought prosperity with environ damage. Focus should shift from large dams, seed-fertilizer strategy </li></ul>
  26. 28. <ul><li>Focus on technology which mitigate neg. ext.; focus in the small - irri, poor farmer/region & HH </li></ul><ul><li>These will bring higher and dispersed prosperity, preserve env, reduce poverty & social excl. </li></ul><ul><li>Refocusing will preserve rural economy and social viability </li></ul><ul><li>Refocusing will retain village society with culture and ambience with modernity </li></ul><ul><li>Plenty more care and attention to agriculture, rural education and primary healthcare </li></ul>