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Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options
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Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options

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Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options

Addressing Vulnerability To Climate Variability & Change Through An Assessment Of Issues & Options

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  1. Addressing vulnerability to climate variability and change through an assessment of issues and options TERI study Supported by The World Bank December 2006
  2. Study highlights • Rationale: – agriculture an important sector, sensitive to climate, millions dependent • Overall goal: – Identify issues and opportunities that enhance the coping capacities of communities in dealing effectively with climatic extremes including droughts and floods • Timeframe: started May 2005 (still continuing)
  3. Broad objectives • Reviewing coping strategies being employed by communities in India and assessing issues and opportunities for adaptation » study focus on drought and flood affected regions » distinguish between reactive temporary mechanisms and measures for strengthening the adaptive capacities » links with developmental aspects will be explored • Assessing the effectiveness with which coping measures are being employed and the factors influencing their implementation • Identifying/ suggesting measures to enhance adaptive capacities » Incremental in nature than those currently being employed to cope during with such circumstances
  4. Basin selection and mapping of vulnerability Preliminary discussions and consultations Pennar in Andhra Pradesh, Mahanadi in Orissa, Godavari in Maharashtra
  5. GIS based quantitative analysis for selection of districts within sites Quantitative Indicators Physical vulnerability Social vulnerability Economic & technological vulnerability 1) Soil severity 1) Labourer/ 1) Infrastructure 2) Soil cover Cultivator Ratio Development 3) Groundwater 2) Land under 2) Irrigated area exploitation cultivation 3) Presence of 3) Population agricultural credit density societies Principles, Criteria and Indicators Approach to quantitatively assess the vulnerability aspects
  6. AP Vulnerability Index Focus: Chittoor and Anantapur 1991: Anantapur – ADILABAD V IZIA NAG ARAM very high vul & SRIK AKULAM NIZAMABAD KARIMNAGAR WA RANGAL VISAKHAPATNAM Chittoor – high vul MEDA K KHAMMA M EAS T GODAVARI HYDERABAD RANGAREDDI WEST G ODAVARI NA LGONDA KRISHNA 2001: Shift to high vul GUNTUR MAHBUBNAGA R in Anantapur PRAKASAM KURNOOL ANANTAPUR CUDDAPAH NELLO RE CHITTOOR
  7. Selection of villages State Districts Villages Andhra Chittoor and Katherapalli, Pathpalayam Pradesh Anantapur Harijanwada, Chinnapongapalle, Neramatla, Manesamudram, and Brahmanapalle Maharashtra Ahmednagar and Karanji, Malewadi, Nasik Hiwrebazaar, Karegaon, Korhate Orissa Puri and Gada Sampat, Deipur, Jagatsinghpur Raibaidar, Tarasahi, Naugaon, Sunadia Kanda
  8. Case study: Andhra Pradesh • In all 23 districts, 13 declared drought prone • Three regions: Coastal, Telangana and Rayalseema • FOCUS REGION: Rayalseema, • Lies in the Pennar River Basin • Comprises districts of Chittoor, Anantapur, Kurnool & Cuddapah. • FOCUS DISTRICTS: Chittoor &Anantapur • SURVEYS: 6 villages, 2 per district
  9. Agro-climatic conditions of the Pennar • Rainfed; lies in the rain shadow of W. Ghats, lowest rainfall among the three regions (650 mm/year). • Predominantly covered by red and black soil, poor nutrient quality. • Chittoor: dry-sub-humid zone, 700-1000 mm/year average rainfall, red loamy soils, cultivation of paddy and sugarcane possible. • Anantapur: scarce rainfall zone, 500-700 mm/yr average rainfall, red sandy soils, cultivation of coarse millets, pulses, groundnut • Chittoor more favourable agro-climatically, irrigation (31 % as opposed to 12 % in Anantapur)
  10. Defining the baseline • Focus largely on agricultural dependent communities and households. • Unit of investigation: land categories (LC) • Households chosen based on stratified random sampling, and classified into four LCs: large (> 4 acres), medium (1-3 acres), small/marginal (< 1 acres) and landless. • Number of households surveyed: 570 • Concentration of households in the medium (47%) and landless categories (30%)
  11. Baseline contd…. • Information on incomes of households collected for a ‘normal year’ and an ‘impact (drought) year’. • Incomes classified as Agricultural (cultivation and agricultural labour AL) and Non Agricultural (Non Agricultural Labour NAL, Petty Business, Dairy and Remittances). • Agriculture (climate-sensitive) main source of income (82% in Chittoor, 95% in Anantapur). This means that vulnerability to climatic stress is congruously high. • However, differential vulnerabilities exist given a. geographical location, agro-climatic conditions b. degree of dependence on agriculture, safety nets, infrastructural facilities, institutions/social networks etc
  12. Sources of Income • Average annual NY incomes higher in Chittoor (Rs 32650), than Anantapur (Rs 22300). • LC 1: 81% of income from cultivation. Second largest source is NAL (higher incomes obtained, as education allows for taking up jobs as teachers, doctors, in government etc). Income diversification (income apart from agriculture) limited, as reliant on safety nets built up in a normal year. • LC 2: little more than half of their income from cultivation, with the rest divided between AL and NAL. • LC3 and LC 4: AL is major source of income. • LC1 and LC 4: extreme cases.
  13. Impacts, Coping and Adaptive Strategies • Terms cannot be clubbed into water-tight compartments, define for each case study. E.g., distress sale as an impact or as a coping measure. • Impacts: drops in agricultural production/productivity, water scarcity, food intake, consumption expenditure, drop out of school and health status. • Coping : short-term/proactive: distress sale, shift in occupation, temp migration, availing of credit/loan, changes in cropping pattern • Adaptive: long-term/reactive/boosts resilience: income diversification (one main activity, with a cluster of activities supplementing it).
  14. Impact indicators • Fall in acreage, water availability and crop production – 44 to 100 % (acreage) – Production only 4 % on comparison with normal year – Depth of water 300 to 400 feet • Health and education, varies across landholdings – 12 % reported ill-health and 10 % fall-out on education • Sharp decline in incomes – Highest impact on cultivators (large landholders) • Monotonic relationship between large landholdings and proportion of incomes
  15. Impact on Incomes • A vast drop in total average incomes of 65% • Drop in incomes decreasing from larger to smaller land categories • Drops in income from cultivation are 92 %. All land owning categories experience similar drops • Drops in income from dairy activities are 40% • Labour incomes increases by 46% for households that fall in the large land category • Remittance income registers a marginal increase of 3%
  16. World Bank Study – droughts in AP • Income proxy of well Income Impact Index Mean income = (Normal+Impact being. income)/2 Variance = • Income Impact Index across land categories Standard deviation = square root (variance) and villages Coefficient of Variation = (Standard deviation/mean)*100 • Coping Variables: Distinguish b/w ‘reactive 9LOODJHV ,,, temporary’ & ‘long-term’ /DQG ,,, &DW .DWKHUDSDOOL measures. 3DWKSDODDP + KLQQDSRQJDSDOOH • Identifying significant 1HUDPDWOD variables that help 0DQHVDPXGUDP households ‘maintain’ 7RWDO %UDKPDQDSDOOH income levels, i.e., cope.
  17. Income Impact Index • Quantitative Assessment of vulnerability. • Assumption: households undertaking ‘income- smoothening activities’ (coping/adaptive), exhibit lower deviation in incomes from normal year. • Values obtained maybe incongruous with perception (e.g., Brahmanapalle). But, credibility in facts, since perceptions may be misleading! • Significant strategies: availing credit/loans (68%), distress sale (33%, mainly jewellery), and shift in occupation (28%)
  18. Community responses • Strategies deployed/developed by communities – Change in cropping intensity – Income diversification – Distress sale of cattle, land and jewellery – Credits/ loans • External factors that aid response to climatic stress – Infrastructure development • Village Neramatla and its dependence on agriculture • Village Mansamudram and connectivities – Income diversification • Proximity to a town/ city; village Katherapalli – Ability to diversify cropping patterns
  19. Institutional/ non-institutional factors • Role of government departments in enhancing adaptive capacities through implementation of plans and programmes • Policies of the government to help communities cope with current climatic variability and drought and flood mitigation • Role of local institutions in strengthening capacities: SHGs, banks and agricultural credit societies • Role of community institutions and their strengths • Role of private sector
  20. Issues for consideration • Obtained from the simultaneous regression equation. • Identifies variables that can lower the III (deviations between NY and DY incomes), and hence can feed into policy interventions. • Significant variables: • Education(formal/skillsets): increases ability to diversify. a. No. of working members in the family (especially for LC4): more helping hands, brings in more income. b. Indebtedness ratio (credit/loan:NY income): higher the ratio, the lesser the gap, as this amount is used to tide over the stress period.
  21. Thank you

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