Virtual Worlds Conference 2008 Keynote

Slide 1: Where are we? a path from where we’ve just been to the metaverse

Slide 3: Robots on the Job Where are we? a path from where we’ve just been to the metaverse

Slide 4: We think we know what the metaverse looks like.

Slide 5: What does this vision really mean? A space shown on a screen that allows you to: • have a more human interaction with other people than via any other communication medium • share experiences • easily navigate in 3D & 2D environments • use many applications: entertainment, shopping, real social networking, events • innovate new applications that we haven’t thought of yet • millions of publishers creating compatible environments • intertwined with the Web and audio devices Primary Value: Remote presence with other people. Scale: more user time than today’s Web.

Slide 6: PROBLEM: Vision: As close as we can get to teleporting and the technology to build valuable applications. REQUIRES Technology VISION WE HAVE Techn ology TODAY

Slide 7: BIGGER PROBLEM: While lots of technology can be created when there is continuous economic incentive... Metaverse Economic Reward Technology

Slide 8: BIGGER PROBLEM: While lots of technology can be created when there is continuous economic incentive... Metaverse Economic Reward Technology

Slide 9: BIGGER PROBLEM: ...directly building the 3D Metaverse has a very unrewarding development path. Metaverse Economic Reward Technology

Slide 10: BIGGER PROBLEM: ...directly building the 3D Metaverse has a very unrewarding development path. Metaverse Economic Reward Technology

Slide 11: What IS all this mysterious missing technology? (it’s complicated...)

Slide 12: Software and feature requirements for a successful Metaverse fall into several categories: Architecture Content System Communication Navigation Adoption Other

Slide 13: Content Open and Architecture Optimized Server Protocols load balancing Viewer Could be Web browser interface accounts ... communication rendering UGC tools Apps Services ... Communication, Search...

Slide 14: • Content distribution separate from all other systems • Publish any 0 to 2D content via existing Web infrastructure (video to images to text to data parameters, etc.) • Deliver content via network, local disk, caching, and edge Content System networks • Make improved use of hardware acceleration and any rendering engines • Use of content definition standards • Separate creation from publishing of content - WYSIWYG, real-time content creation tools - As-needed content streaming - Publishing step converting content to an efficient format from editing format

Slide 15: • Competitively created, embedded communication tools - similar to Web interfaces to e-mail or chat, the Metaverse will need embedded interfaces to audio, video, and chat Communication - hardware input for non-verbal communication (expressions; perhaps 3D cameras) • Interoperate if not embed directly existing systems - phone, skype, IM networks, etc. • Next generation social networking features - integration with existing systems - real-time common interest notification in social surroundings

Slide 16: • Semi-automated generation of point-and-click choices for multi-step navigation - more semantic-level navigation - MMOs and existing kids worlds could improve in this regard Navigation • Easier navigation of spaces via mouse and possibly other input devices • Search for places, events, applications using - ontological knowledge - wisdom of the crowd: tags, learning, collaborative filtering, etc.

Slide 17: Today’s entry experiences into VWs are largely very poor... • Competitive on-ramp experiences created for specific applications/audiences as well as for use by many content publishers Adoption • Move registration into the world - provide more pre-registration experience - create a VW version of CAPTCHA • Quest and help style orientations with NPC’s - make more open ended what has been done well in the video game industry

Slide 18: • Simple use on living room HD TVs • Integration with consoles • Video streams with DRM rendered Other • NPCs (non-player characters) controlled via 3rd party services • Thorough permission tools using age verification, geo-location systems available today • Recording features and (a)synchronous publication on the Web • Name space coordination for public spaces (URLs and IDs) • Data recording and access for commerce, advertising, and reporting • Integration with many payment methods for virtual & real currencies • Natural Language content creation, manipulation • Competitively developed tools for everything from content creation to load balancing to advertising models to event management, etc. • etc.

Slide 19: Example: Kids’ Virtual Worlds Cu rre nc y Digital Constant + + es Kids Content Compulsion Gam re s ) ion Games Updates Loop p d ex o ss Go al lf- rtu /se Vi us at (st = Metaverse = + physical product + Special Sauce (presence) + known brand + retail stores

Slide 20: PROBLEM: 1. With so many virtual worlds, attention will be divided and hard to get. 2. Competition will rapidly ramp up production costs: - 3d with better graphics - more sophisticated interfaces - content beyond the same flash games 3. Major brands will create VWs as a marketing cost, all but eliminating subscription revenue 4. Advertising revenue will be limited

Slide 21: PROBLEM: The Big Squeeze Less user time and higher marketing costs Much Higher Production Costs Less Revenue Per User 2008 Big Budgets Occasional Huge Hits Movie Industry Dynamic Most hits leverage a brand by 2010: Many brands will choose to participate within other successful VWs.

Slide 22: Architecture Content System Communication Navigation Adoption Other Some of the innovation toward Metaverse technology will be driven by competition among kids virtual worlds. Open Question: Beyond 2008, how much of this new technology will be available for use in other applications?

Slide 23: Kids’ Worlds are starting to generate significant new Metaverse technology in 2008. Metaverse Economic Reward 2009 2008 lds or ’W 2007 K ids s ful es u cc t S Mos Technology

Slide 24: Companies with long-term focus are starting to fund the direct-build approach. Metaverse Economic Reward OpenSim Technology

Slide 25: Linden Lab created a profitable MMO with a few key innovations on the path to the Metaverse (e.g. in-world UGC and streamed content). Metaverse Economic Reward Technology

Slide 26: The Opportunity is to find minimal technology sets that will serve one Metaverse application completely... Architecture Content System Communication Navigation Adoption Other Use pieces that exist, that are being created by vendors & open source projects for kids’ worlds, and add to them...

Slide 27: Most Killer Apps require too much progress to be successful in 2008-9. e.g. Consumer Shopping in virtual environments will eventually be larger than it is on the Web today, but many barriers remain to creating a great experience.

Slide 28: What will realistically bring about the Metaverse? Answer: An evolution of the Web from A Platform for: A Platform for: Data publishing and to also Shared experiences and Data-driven application Simulated spaces

Slide 29: Biggest spending across many companies... 2006-7 Second Life 2007-9 Kids’ Worlds 2009-? Community Web sites: Social Networking Dating Fantasy Sports TV Show sites Celebrity Gossip Education Anything with lots of fans etc.

Slide 30: To Be Continued... Monday, April 7th, in search of a technical and business roadmap to the Metaverse: http://blogs.electricsheepcompany.com/sibley/