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Strategic analysis of communications based train control systems in the western european urban rail market
 

Strategic analysis of communications based train control systems in the western european urban rail market

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The study provides a strategic analysis of the Communications-Based Train Control Systems in the Western European Urban Rail Market, primarily covering Semi Automatic Train Operation (STO), Driverless ...

The study provides a strategic analysis of the Communications-Based Train Control Systems in the Western European Urban Rail Market, primarily covering Semi Automatic Train Operation (STO), Driverless Train Operation (DTO) and Unattended Train Operation (UTO) enabled by radio-based CBTC. The business environment of the Western European rail market and its dynamics has been discussed in great detail. The study provides drivers and restraints, market share analysis, competitor analysis, strategic market sizing forecasts for urban rail networks. Revenue growth opportunities in the communications-based train control industry and revenue forecasts of the European CBTC stock market has been provided by segment and region from 2011 to 2021.

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    Strategic analysis of communications based train control systems in the western european urban rail market Strategic analysis of communications based train control systems in the western european urban rail market Presentation Transcript

    • Strategic Analysis of Communication Based Train Control Systems in the Western European Urban Rail Market Standardization, Modularity and Capacity Demands Driving Growth M92D-13 June 2013
    • 2M92D-13 Shyam Raman Research Analyst Automotive & Transportation +1 416 495 2686 Shyam.raman@frost.com Contact The Research Team Lead Analyst
    • 3M92D-13 Contents Section Slide Numbers Executive Summary 5 Research Scope, Objectives, Methodology, and Background 18 Definitions and Segmentation 24 Overview of Urban Rail Signaling 29 Overcoming Challenges in Implementing CBTC 38 Cost Breakdown of Urban Rail Signaling Systems 46 Grades of Automation 51 Communications Based Train Control as Defined by the IEEE 1474 Standard 57 Platform and Track Protection (PTP) Systems 65 Mega Trends and Industry Convergence Implications 75
    • 4M92D-13 Contents (continued) Section Slide Numbers Total Market - • External Challenges: Drivers and Restraints 84 Urban Rail CBTC Market - • Forecasts and Trends—Communications Based Train Control 92 • Market Share and Competitive Analysis—Communications Based Train Control 102 Case Studies - • The MODURBAN Project: European Rail Industry's Initiative to Standardize CBTC 108 • CBTC Migration Strategy of RATP, Paris and London Underground 115 • Full System Approach of Ansaldo STS 123 Competitor Profiles 128 Conclusions and Future Outlook 141 Appendix 145
    • 5M92D-13 Executive Summary
    • 6M92D-13 Executive Summary—Key Findings Operational length of CBTC systems in Western Europe is growing at a CAGR of 14.4%. Denmark and United Kingdom are expected to be the biggest markets for implementing radio-based CBTC in the forecast period. 1 2 Invensys is going to be acquired by Siemens Mobility. Siemens is expected to deploy its Trainguard MT CBTC product to 21 lines exceeding 360 km by end of forecast period. 3 Western Europe is expected to have 726.2 km of Semi Automatic Train Operation (STO), 440.1 km of Driverless Train Operation (DTO), and 174 km of Unattended Train Operation (UTO) enabled by radio-based CBTC by end of forecast period. 4 Ansaldo STS’s future is uncertain and it could either be spun off or acquired. Although it has an excellent product line and a strong customer base, its parent company, Finmeccanica is in the midst of a financial crisis and its credit rating has slumped to the lowest possible BBB-. 5 Top 3 competitors are Bombardier, Siemens, and Thales, with a total market share of 78.3% of all operational network length in 2011. The market value is expected to increase by €2.17 billion during 2011–2021. Source: Frost & Sullivan
    • 7M92D-13 Executive Summary—Market Engineering Measurements The market value is expected to increase by €1.37 billion during 2011-2021. There is no clear trend on cost per kilometer as it is highly dependent on several factors existing at the intended installation environment. Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan Compound Annual Growth Rate 14.4% Total Operational Network Length (CAGR, 2011-2021) Market Stage Growth Market Value €993 Million 2011 Market Volume (Total Length Operational) 350 km 2011 Average Price per km* €2.4 Million Market Value for Last Year of Study Period €3.59 Billion 2021 Base Year Market Growth Rate N/A Urban Rail Market: Market Engineering Measurements, Western Europe, 2011 Market Overview Stable IncreasingDecreasing Market Concentration 78.3% (% of market share held by top 3 companies) Number of Competitors 6 (active market competitors in base year) Average R&D Spend by Product N/A *Signaling has a very custom approach. Each contract has to be tailored accounting for various factors. CBTC prices vary from €1.2 to €4.7 Million per km. Hence we assume average cost of €2.4 Million per km. For a tabular version, click here.
    • 8M92D-13 Executive Summary—Communication in Automated Urban Rail The Communication subsystem does not perform any vital functions and is used for data transmission alone. Therefore, commercial off-the-shelf systems can be used to lower CAPEX Telecommunication • SCADA • Maintenance/Emergency Control • Train Traffic Control • Instant online radio communication • Mobile monitoring and control for engineers and conductors Passenger Services • Automatic Fare Collection • Passenger Information System • Emergency / Stop request • Mobile access • Surveillance Signaling and Train control • Train Protection Distance to Go ATP and ATS • Computerized Interlocking • Track Circuits • Radio-based balises The urban rail environment has assimilated and integrated heavily with IT Source: Frost & Sullivan Urban Rail Market: Simplified Schematic of Automated Urban Rail System, Western Europe, 2011 Image Sources: PESA; railway technical; telecomseva.com; evoc.com
    • 9M92D-13 Executive Summary—CBTC Technology Roadmap Commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) Wi-Fi and WiMax solutions are expected to become backbone of the CBTC train to wayside communication system. Urban Rail Market: CBTC Technology Roadmap, Western Europe, 2011-2021 TrainNetwork TrainTo Wayside Communication 2011 2013 2017 2021 IEEE 802.11n 60Mbit/s Source: Frost & Sullivan IEEE 1473 L/T Wire Train Bus MVB –Standard Vehicle Bus IEEE 802.3bj 100 Gbit/s IEEE 802.11ag 3.5 Gbit/s IEEE 802.16e Rev2 35 Mbit/s Induction Loop The use of COTS enables frequent upgrading, allowing networks to keep up with technology while staying relevant to economic situations - Operator IEEE 802.11n 60Mbit/s for equipment that are non vital
    • 10M92D-13 Executive Summary—Grades of Automation Automatic train operation is segmented by grades of operation from semi automatic to unattended train operation. Automatic Train Protection (ATP) Automatic Train Operation (ATO) Automatic Train Supervision (ATS) ATP is the first step towards automation. All primary safety functions are automated. Driving functions of the train can be automated through the ATO (basic driving to zero staff). Real time automation of train management and operations regulation through ATS. Grades of Automation (GOA) • Only ATP with no ATOGOA 1 • STO–Semi Automatic Train Operation • Trains run automatically between stations under driver supervision • Driver operates doors, provides input for train to leave station and monitors operations GOA 2: • DTO–Driverless Train Operation • Driver does not need to be at the front of the train or at the driving cab / controls • Doors can be controlled automatically or from a separate location than the front cab GOA 3 • UTO–Unattended Train Operation • No need of crew on board. • Automation of doors is mandatory GOA 4 Urban Rail Market: Introduction to Grades of Automation, Western Europe, 2011 Source: Frost & Sullivan CBTC is used to enable ATO
    • 11M92D-13 Executive Summary—Lines Capable of Automatic Train Operation A total of 83 lines are currently capable of automatic operation, of which only 13 can be classified as radio- based CBTC. Therefore, around 48 lines have the possibility of upgrading to CBTC in future. France CBTC: 10 UTO: 9 STO: 12 Germany CBTC: 2 UTO: 2 STO: 1 9 Spain CBTC: 4 UTO: 3 STO: 17 7 Switzerland CBTC: 1 UTO: 1 1 UK CBTC: 4 UTO: 2 | DTO: 1 STO: 5 Denmark CBTC: 2 UTO: 2 Finland CBTC: 0 STO: 1 1 Netherlands CBTC: 0 STO: 0 5 It is important to keep in mind that all driverless systems are not CBTC. Automation is possible even with low level ATO systems. Also, all radio based systems are not CBTC either. Finally, all CBTC systems are not true moving block, they can also be virtual block based –OEM Urban Rail Market: Number of Lines Capable of Automatic Operation, Western Europe, 2011 and 2021 Sweden CBTC: 0 STO: 5 1 Italy CBTC: 2 UTO:1 6 Greece CBTC: 0 1 1410 10 Legend: All numbers inside boxes denote signaling status of urban lines that are capable of ATO as of 2011. denotes total number of lines operational with CBTC at end of forecast period (2021). Note: All ATO systems are not CBTC. A line can have STO, DTO or UTO functionality without CBTC. Source: Frost & Sullivan
    • 12M92D-13 STO 54.2% DTO 32.8% UTO 13.0% Executive Summary—Brownfield Projects Prefer STO Operators on existing lines choose STO to gain familiarity with CBTC technology, to upgrade the system at a modest CAPEX, and to allow the workforce such as train drivers to move into other responsibilities. 30 1 9 13 1 10 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Brownfield Greenfield NumberofProjects Land Type STO DTO UTO Urban Rail Market: Number of Projects by Land Type and GOA, Western Europe, 2021 Source: Frost & Sullivan Most operators upgrading existing lines prefer to choose STO as the first level of CBTC implementation. Scaling to DTO or UTO is a relatively simpler upgrade once the CBTC framework is set up. As the workforce in most transit operators are unionized, there certainly will be difficulties to implement UTO and completely take away existing jobs. Once CBTC is installed, operators can slowly start the transition of train drivers/engineers towards administrative, executive and technical roles. –OEM Urban Rail Market: Market Share by GOA, Western Europe, 2021
    • 13M92D-13 1 1 5 1 3 6 4 7 4 5 2 2 4 9 1 1 2 1 2 3 1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 NumberofLineswithCBTC STO DTO UTO Executive Summary—Converting towards Automatic Operation Priority Out of 34 identified projects, 23 are brownfield conversions; less than 30% of projects are new lines under construction. Brownfield 69.8% Greenfield 27.9% Both 2.3% Urban Rail Market: Number of Lines Expected to Operate with CBTC, Western Europe, 2021 Source: Frost & Sullivan • These 3 cities are expected to have majority automated metro systems: • Copenhagen–Copenhagen Metro (Ansaldo) and Copenhagen S-Bane (Siemens) • Paris–OCTYS + OURAGAN Project involving Ansaldo, Areva, Siemens and Thales • London–Bombardier CityFlo 650 CBTC on SSR Lines and Thales Seltrac S40 on 3 lines. Urban Rail Market: Market Share by Number of Projects in Different Land Types, Western Europe, 2012- 2021 Rail Automation and IT integration allow for remote monitoring on mobile devices for track-side workers with applications that are on the cloud and independent of hardware requirements.“ – Operator • 54.2% of all CBTC systems expected to be STO by end of forecast period
    • 14M92D-13 Alstom Ansaldo STS Bombardier Invensys Siemens Thales 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland UK Radio-based CBTC Systems Installed 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland UK Radio-based CBTC Systems Installed Executive Summary—Competitive Positioning of CBTC Systems For completion within 2011-2021, a total of 1,077.8 km of projects have been confirmed and construction is underway. This is a significant increase over the previous with 188.9 km installed from 2001–2010. Urban Rail Market: Competitive Environment of CBTC Systems, Western Europe, 2011 and 2021 Type of Block Alstom Ansaldo Bombardier Invensys Siemens Thales CBTC Virtual Block Urbalis 200 Ansaldo CBTC CityFlo 450 SIRIUS Trainguard MT Seltrac MS CBTC Moving Block Urbalis 300 Urbalis Evolution - CityFlo 650 - - Seltrac IS Urban Rail Market: CBTC Products Categorised by Type of Block, Western Europe, 2011 Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan 2011 2021
    • 15M92D-13 2011 2021 16.3% 3.1% 10.0% 15.7% 2.9% 8.7% 4.7% 8.4% 3.6% 26.6% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland UK TrackLengthofCBTC Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland UK Executive Summary—Operational CBTC Forecast London and Copenhagen aim to have fully automatic metro systems. Paris is expected to start automation of other lines when CBTC projects in line 5 and 13 complete in 2013. Urban Rail Market: Country-wise Market Share by Length of Operational CBTC, Western Europe, 2011-2021 Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan 5.9% 37.0% 5.8% 11.5% 2.3% 16.9% 20.6% 13.8% 2.3% 16.4% 13.2% 9.3% 2.2% 10.4% 2.7% 0.5% 25.7% 3.5% • Siemens with Trainguard MT is expected to be market leader with 39.5% of market share of total CBTC network operational in 2021. Thales is expected to follow with a share of 19.8%. • Germany is expected to order CBTC upgrades for it’s urban rail systems post 2015. Nuremberg metro is expected to upgrade it’s U1 line only after the extension of U3 line completes in 2018. • Metro Systems in Denmark and United Kingdom (UK) are expected to contribute towards 52.6% of CBTC implementation during the forecast period. Note: The center chart shows the market share by length of CBTC network that is expected to be operational in the forecast period (2012-2021) in each country.
    • 16M92D-13 Parameters Current Future Market Status • The potential size of the market is vast and not fully penetrated. The total length of metro and light rail systems in Western Europe is over 8,100km. Only 1,340 km is expected to have operational CBTC by 2021. • Market is placed in the launch pad for robust growth in implementation of CBTC. • CBTC is expected to become industry standard in urban rail signaling. Its scalability allows for various levels of automation. Competition • 78.3% of the market is consolidated by 3 participants (Siemens, Bombardier and Thales). • Standardization is going to increase competition. Orders for green field projects are expected to be won by participants providing a holistic solution of rolling stock + signaling. Solutions • Moving block and virtual moving block systems offer comparable performance. • Moving block systems expected to become standard as they will provide higher response times that virtual moving block systems cannot match. Technology • Induction-based and radio-based systems • Induction-based communication systems to become obsolete • Multi modal communication platforms (Wi-fi + Cellular + Satellite) Barriers to Entry in Western European Market • Handful of global suppliers are capable of providing CBTC. • Highly expensive technology platform deters new participants from entering the market • Unlikely to change. Executive Summary—Key Conclusions and Future Outlook CBTC systems are expected to become standard signaling solutions for urban rail systems. Source: Frost & Sullivan
    • 17M92D-13 Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
    • 18M92D-13 Research Scope Communications Based Train Control Systems, Urban Rail SignalingTopics Covered 2012 to 2021Forecast Period 2011 to 2021Study Period 2011Base Year Western Europe - Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and The United Kingdom Geographical Scope Source: Frost & Sullivan 5.9% 37.0% 5.8% 11.5% 16.9% 2.3% 20.6% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% MarketSharebyLengthof OperationalCBTC Urban Rail Market: Country-wise Market Share by Length of Operational CBTC, Western Europe, 2011
    • 19M92D-13 Research Aims and Objectives Aim The aim of this study is to evaluate the revenue growth opportunities available in the communications- based train control industry. The study defines drivers and restraints to the market, market share analysis, and strategic market sizing forecasts for urban rail networks that are automated. Objectives • Provide a strategic overview of the urban rail CBTC market in Western Europe, including key technology trends, market drivers and restraints for the CBTC market. • Provide market size and forecasts of future implementation of CBTC systems in new and existing urban rail systems • Provide revenue forecasts of the Western European CBTC stock market by segment and breakdown by region from 2011–2021 • Competitor analysis: Analyze competitive factors, competitor market shares, and product portfolio analysis and capabilities Source: Frost & Sullivan
    • 20M92D-13 Key Questions This Study Will Answer Who are the leading suppliers of CBTC systems in Western Europe? Where are the new opportunities in signaling for urban rail systems? In which direction is the urban rail signaling technology heading? Will radio-based signaling see rapid uptake in urban rail environment? If so, then in which environment and segment? What is the market share of participants in the CBTC market? Who is expected to be the market leader in CBTC in each country in Western Europe by 2021? Source: Frost & Sullivan What is the business environment of the Western European CBTC market, the dynamics and its impact on mobility and urbanization? Urban Rail Market: Key Questions This Study Will Answer, Western Europe, 2011
    • 21M92D-13 Year RS Code Research Service Title Regional Scope 2012 M77E-18 Growth Opportunities In Urban Rail Rolling Stock Systems In Europe Europe 2012 M77D-18 Strategic Insight on Global Rail Market Global 2011 M4DD-18 Strategic Analysis of the Global High Speed Rail Market Global 2011 M64A-18 North American Locomotive Market: A Strategic Analysis of Powertrain Technologies and Auxiliary Systems Considered by OEMs for EPA Emission Compliance North America 2011 M6DB-18 Strategic Analysis of Alternative Powertrain Technologies in the European Diesel Locomotive and Railcar Market Europe 2011 N92D-18 An Executive Analysis on Passenger Rail Rolling Stock and Seating Systems Market in the U.S. United States 2011 P488-18 Green Technologies and Developments in Rail Transportation APAC 2010 M649-18 European Rail Catenary Systems – Executive Analysis of Copper Requirement for Electrification across Strategic European Markets Europe 2009 M3F5-18 Strategic Analysis of the European Rail Electrification Market Europe 2009 M1B6-18 Strategic Analysis of the European Light Rail and Underground Market - Part 2: Market Engineering Measurements Europe 2009 P2A3-18 Strategic Analysis of the Growth Opportunities in the Indian Rail Industry India 2009 M363-18 Strategic Opportunity Analysis of the Russian Rail Market: Implication for the Global Supply Chain Russia 2008 P391-18 360 Degree CEO Perspective on Green Transportation: Focus on Rail, Automotive and Procurement Global Research Background This research service strengthens our coverage of the rail industry. Source: Frost & Sullivan
    • 22M92D-13 Company Designation Centro Media Manager Thales Managing Director, Market Analyst Invensys Rail Ltd Head of Innovation RATP External Business Development Manager Vectus Ltd. CTO, MD ULTra PRT Financial Controller 2getthere Commercial Director Rock Project Project Manager TFL UK Project Manager Siemens plc Project Manager Thales Market Analyst Ansaldo STS VP (Investor Relations) Bombardier Chief Innovation Officer Ansaldo STS Director Global – Signaling Siemens Partner ALSTOM TRANSPORT Deputy Vice President Investor Relations, Director Urban Strategy Research Methodology: Frost & Sullivan’s research services are based on secondary and primary research data. Secondary Research: Extraction of information from existing reports and project material within the Frost & Sullivan database, to include data and information gathered form technical papers, specialized magazines, seminars and internet research. Primary Research: More than 10 interviews have been conducted over the phone by senior consultants/industry analysts with original equipment suppliers, regulation authorities and distributors. Primary research has accounted for 80% of the total research. Research Methodology Company Designation Skoda Transportation Vice President Sales Keolis Nordic AB Chairman of the Board AB Stockholms Spårvägar Chairman Barcelona Metro Project Manager Roma Metro Technical Director Milan Metro Technical Manager Copenhagen Metro Project Engineer Source: Frost & Sullivan Urban Rail Market: Key Industry Participants, Western Europe, 2011
    • 23M92D-13 Key OEM Groups/Participants Compared in this Study Group OEMs / Divisions Alstom Alstom Transportation Bombardier Bombardier Transportation Finmeccanica Ansaldo STS Invensys Invensys Rail Siemens Siemens Mobility Thales Thales Transportation The OEM groups and companies compared in this study are as follows: Source: Frost & Sullivan