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Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems
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Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems

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The research service provides an analysis of the European urban rail rolling stock market and focuses on the trends and technologies to be used. The study segments the market by metro, light rail and …

The research service provides an analysis of the European urban rail rolling stock market and focuses on the trends and technologies to be used. The study segments the market by metro, light rail and APM systems and identifies the opportunities for new rolling stock in each of these segments. It further provides an in-depth trend and scenario based forecast by segment .

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  • 1. Strategic Analysis of Growth Opportunities in the Western European Urban Rail Market for Rolling Stock Systems Strong Orders in Light Rail and Automated People Mover Systems is Driving Growth M77E-18 May 2013
  • 2. 2M77E-18 Shyam Raman Research Analyst-Rail Automotive & Transportation +1-4164952686 shyam.raman@frost.com Contact the Research Team Lead Analyst
  • 3. 3M77E-18 Contents Section Slide Numbers Executive Summary 4 Research Scope, Objectives, Background and Methodology 15 Definitions and Segmentation 22 Overview of Trends in the Urban Rail Market 27 Mega Trends and Industry Convergence Implications 43 Urban Rail Market • External Challenges: Drivers and Restraints 57 Light Rail Rolling Stock 66 • Forecast and Trends 78 • Market Share and Competitive Analysis 87 Metro Rail Rolling Stock 96 • Forecast and Trends 104 • Market Share and Competitive Analysis 112 Automated People Mover (APM)Systems 121 • Forecast and Trends 128 • Market Share and Competitive Analysis 132 Conclusions 138 Appendix 145
  • 4. 4M77E-18 Executive Summary
  • 5. 5M77E-18 Executive Summary—Key Findings Automated people movers (APMs) are the fastest growing urban rail segment while light rail has the majority of infrastructure projects. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. After a decade of flurried development, growth in light rail systems are stabilizing as most municipalities have installed light rails. Though the number of light rail projects is decreasing as compared to the previous decade, light rail still has the maximum number of greenfield projects. 1 2 APMs represent the fastest growing segment and will have increased their presence by more than three times in 2021. 3 A total of 406 urban areas have urban rail in active service in countries considered in this study. The size of the urban rail network expanded by 2,843 km between 2003 and 2012. Metro rail has higher opportunities in track upgrades, extensions, and signaling systems. 4 63.4 percent of all urban rail projects installed in the last 10 years were light rail systems. A total of 46 new light rail systems have been developed over the last 20 years (1993‒2012) while 30 new systems are expected to come up in the next 10 years (2013‒2022). 5 European metro rail systems are more active in purchasing new rolling stock as compared to light rail. No metro fleet operator currently operating has any fleet that is more than 35 years old (on an average). Italy, France, and the United Kingdom are expected to place rolling stock orders to replace 1,268 metro rolling stock by 2015. 6 Alstom, Siemens, and Bombardier face threats from Ansaldo, CAF, and Vossloh, which are significantly increasing their market presence with strong orders for rolling stock.
  • 6. 6M77E-18 Executive Summary—Key Trends and Predictions A total of 46 new light rail systems have been developed over the last 20 years (1993‒2012) and 30 new systems are expected to be built over the next 10 years (2013‒2022). France continues to be the hot spot for light rail, with four projects coming to be operational by the end of the forecast period. Light rail is likely to witness a resurgence in Sweden and Denmark. APMs are the fastest growing segment and will have increased their presence by more than three times in 2021. Although APMs are guideway-based systems, heavy APMs are now seen as a transition between light rail and metro rail systems. Dutch and Italian orders are expected to re-launch heavy APMs back into the mainstream urban transport category from automated airport systems. Italy is the largest market for APMs. Six of the seven greenfield APM projects are in Italy. The cities of Brescia, Milan, and Rome are all expected to have operational APM systems by 2015. European metro rail systems are relatively more active in purchasing new rolling stock as compared to light rail. No fleet operator currently operating has any fleet that is more than 35 years old. Italy, France, and the United Kingdom are expected to place rolling stock orders to replace 1,268 rolling stock by 2015. The metro rail rolling stock is moderately aging, with 42.4 percent of the fleet being more than 20 years old. More than 790 rolling stock are expected to be retired by the end of 2015. Stiff competition is expected between Alstom’s Metropolis, Bombardier’s Movia, and Siemens’s Inspiro Product lines. LightRailMetroAPM Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  • 7. 7M77E-18 Executive Summary—Urban Rail has Evolved to Newer Application Formats Conventional tramway and metro rail systems are giving way to systems such as tram-trains and APM systems. Urban Rail Market: No. of Greenfield Urban Rail Projects, Western Europe, 2011 • France is still a major driving force for tram development. • Tram on tyres is looked upon as an ideal solution for operating feeder routes or for upgrading significant bus routes to urban rail. • Translohr has single handedly carved its dominance in a niche market. • Tram trains are replacing commuter rail systems with connecting city centers with sub-urban or other urban areas • Light rail systems with segregated rights of way are seen as being ideal for mid-sized cities (Area: 120 sq km/Population of 300,000) that are witnessing explosive growth and will become megacities in the future. • Italy and Spain each have three light rail projects that have been approved. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Tramway LRT APM Tram on Tyres Tram-Train Monorail No.ofGreenfieldProjects 42.5% 17.5% 17.5% 15.0% 5.0% 2.5% • Tramways are witnessing high favorability among municipalities. • Quick installation times with low cost are the major drivers for rapid growth. • Cities like Sevilla have successfully implemented a city-wide tram system. • Ansaldo dominates the APM systems market with almost seven projects at the end of the planning phase. Six of these projects are for Italian cities. Note: % values in chart show respective market shares of the new projects. Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  • 8. 8M77E-18 • After a decade of flurried development, growth in light rail systems is stabilizing as most municipalities have installed light rails. • Further expansion depends on passenger adoption and demand. • By 2021, France, Italy, and Spain will have a total of 41 greenfield light rail systems constructed since 2000. (93.2 percent of the total market). Executive Summary—Light Rail is the Top Urban Rail Choice Although the number of light rail projects has reduced as compared to the previous decade, the maximum number of greenfield projects are still light rail projects. APM systems constitute the second fastest growing market. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1980–1989 1990–1999 2000–2009 2010–2019 No.ofGreenfieldProjects APM Light Rail Metro Monorail PRT “Metro and its costs are unjustified and unwarranted unless you are talking about city sizes comparable to London, Paris, and Berlin. When we upgrade, we will choose an APM systems/light metro solution and complement it with new tram/Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) lines.” – EU Operator & City Council Urban Rail Market: Trend of Greenfield Urban Rail Projects, Western Europe, 1980‒2019 • APMs represent the fastest growing segment and will have increased their presence by more than three times in 2021. Though the number of projects is decreasing as compared to the previous decade, light rail still has the maximum number of greenfield projects. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  • 9. 9M77E-18 Executive Summary—Urban Rail Technology Roadmap Energy efficiency is a top priority in urban rail systems. Automatic driverless operation and maximized power regeneration are the key technology targets. Urban Rail Market: Metro Rail Technology Roadmap, Western Europe, 2011‒2021 Control& Signalling TractionRollingStock 2011 2013 2017 2021 Communications-Based Train Control + Global Positioning SystemRadio infrastructure in wayside GPS-based control of traffic signals Aluminium and stainless steel bodies. Composites to reduce weight Broadband wireless connectivity to control centre. Real-time CCTV and monitoring Electro-pneumatic friction brakes blended with electric regenerative braking. Anti-skid valves. Brushless 3 phase induction motors. VVVF control AC Induction Motors Catenary-free, induction-based power transmission Automatic coupler Completely bi-directional trams Super-capacitors enabled pantograph-less inter-stop tram propulsion (for example, the Alstom STEEM project) IGBT Control Permanent magnet motors PWM Rectifiers Lead Acid Batteries Lithium Ion/Sodium Halide/Super-capacitor Line of sight for trams Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  • 10. 10M77E-18 Executive Summary—Forecast of Light Rail Rolling Stock Deliveries France continues to be the hot spot for light rail rolling stock, with four projects likely to be completed by the end of the forecast period. Light rail systems are likely to witness a resurgence in Sweden and Denmark. 2011 2021 Urban Rail Market: Total Expected Deliveries of Light Rail Rolling Stock, Western Europe, 2011–2021 21.5% 57.8% 11.5% 4.5% 1.8% 2.9% 23.9% 51.5% 12.0% 6.5% 2.2% 3.2% 0.6%16.5% 2.9% 0.7% 2.3% 5.7% 4.1% 2.8% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Denmark France Germany Italy Spain Sweden UK ExpectedDeliveriesofLightRailRolling Stock Expected Deliveries of Light Rail Rolling Stock, 2011-2021 Denmark France Germany Italy Spain Sweden The United Kingdom The 12 km long Swedish Aarhus light rail project will link two existing rail lines north and south of the city, enabling the creation of a 103 km tram train network. • Tramways in the cities of Tours and Besançon are expected to commence operations by 2015. Lines 3b,5,6,7 and 8 (planned total of 48.3 km served by 107 train-sets) of the Tramway in Île-de-France are likely to be completed by 2015. • The highest number of deliveries is expected to take place in France followed by Germany and Spain. • Denmark and Sweden are expected to invest in new light rail infrastructure towards the mid-term of the forecast period. Note: % values in the bars on the left and right side show the market share. Note: % values in the center chart show a CAGR (2011-2021) of rolling stock deliveries for each country CAGR 1.8% Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  • 11. 11M77E-18 Executive Summary—Forecast of Metro Rail Rolling Stock Deliveries The highest number of deliveries is expected to be in France followed by the United Kingdom and Spain. Germany is expected to experience growth towards the mid-term of the forecast period. 2011 2021 Urban Rail Market: Total Expected Deliveries of Metro Rail Rolling Stock, Western Europe, 2011–2021 7..% 16.8% 3.4% 27.6% 18.8% 5.8% 20.6% 6.8% 17.1% 3.4% 28.7% 18.5% 5.9% 19.6% CAGR 1.3% 0.7% 1.7% 1.1% 1.5% 0.7% 1.5% 1.4% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Denmark France Germany Italy Spain Sweden The United Kingdom ExpectedDeliveriesofMetroRailRolling Stock Expected Deliveries of Metro Rail Rolling Stock,2011-2021 Denmark France Germany Italy Spain Sweden The United Kingdom Germany: The Kleinprofil G and A3L92 rolling stock series from Berlin U-Bahn are expected to be replaced by the end of the forecast period. Spain: The forecast period is expected to witness the completion of several urban rail projects sanctioned in the late 2000s. For example, Line 3 of Metro Bilbao, Lines 9 and 10 of Barcelona Metro, and Malaga Metro. France and the United Kingdom: The forecast period is expected to witness the retirement and replacement of the 1973 Stock used in the London Underground Piccadilly Line (528 units) and the Z5300 and MS61 series (717 units) from the Paris RER. Note: % values in the center chart show CAGR (2011‒2021) of rolling stock deliveries for each country Note: % values in the bars on the left and right side show the market share. Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  • 12. 12M77E-18 Executive Summary—Forecast of APM Systems Rolling Stock Deliveries The highest number of deliveries likely to be in Italy and Denmark. As A relatively newer system with few rolling stock in the installed base, any change in the numbers reflects higher growth rate values. 2011 2021 Urban Rail Market: Total Expected Deliveries of APM Rolling Stock, Western Europe, 2011–2021 CAGR 6.7% 6.5% 0.9% 13.3% 20.2% 13.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Denmark France Germany Italy Spain Sweden The United Kingdom ExpectedDeliveriesofAPMRollingStock Expected Deliveries of APM Rolling Stock, 2011-2021 Denmark France Germany Italy Spain Sweden UK 18.5% 3.5% 32.4% 9.8% 34.4% 18.2% 19.8% 2.1% 18.5% Denmark: Copenhagen’s Cityringen lines are expected to be completed by 2018, marking the end of the second stage of the city’s metro. Italy: Cities are expected to expand their metros with new lines and almost all systems are likely to be Ansaldo’s Driverless Metro solutions. Germany and France: Siemens NeoVAL is expected to find a launch partner by the end of the forecast period. Note: % values in the center chart show the CAGR (2011- 2021) of rolling stock deliveries for each country. Note: % values in the bars on the left and right side show the market share. 1.5% 2.7% 32.3% 6.5% Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  • 13. 13M77E-18 Executive Summary—Light Rail is the Most Contested Segment Monorail has been almost abandoned in the European context. After the metro, the APM segment has been receiving the highest attention. Manufacturer Metro Light Rail Monorail APM PRT Alstom Ansaldo Bombardier CAF Firema Leitner Siemens Skoda Solaris Stadler Talgo Translohr Ultra Vossloh Urban Rail Market: Rolling Stock OEM Focus Areas, Western Europe, 2011 Note: Focus area strength for each original equipment manufacturer (OEM) is calculated based on the percentage of its rolling stock present in each segment; PRT: Personal Rapid Transit , CAF: Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles < 10% ~ 25% ~ 50% ~ 100% ~ 75% Legend: Siemens is expected to increase its focus on the metro and APM segments. Bombardier is expected to launch a new APM platform to compete with Ansaldo. Alstom is the fiercest competitor in both the light rail and metro segments. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  • 14. 14M77E-18 Executive Summary—Light Rail Rolling Stock Segment Witnesses Higher Interest Levels CAF, Alstom, Ansaldo, and Translohr are likely to be the top performers in rolling stock deliveries up till 2015. Metro APM Light Rail 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAF Urbos 2 CAF Urbos 3 CAF A35 Alstom Citadis Siemens NF8U Stadler Variotram SSB DT8:12 Bombardier Flexity 2 Translohr STE6CAF Urbos 2 CAF Urbos 3 Alstom/Bombardier HHA Type DT5 Ansaldo Breda Driverless Metro Ansaldo to supply railcars to Copenhagen’s Metro lines M3 and M4 to carry 240,000 passengers daily CAF is Alstom’s new threat: Entering three new markets: France, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, with a 29.5 share of all the light rail orders. Translohr STE3 By 2014, Lines T5 and T6 in Paris will be served by 213 Translohr Railcars. Translohr has a 12.4 percent share of all light rail orders. Urban Rail Market: Overview of Rolling Stock Orders, Western Europe, 2012‒2015 Image source: Alstom, Ansaldo, Bombardier, CAF, Siemens, Stadler, Solaris, Translohr. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. SolarisTramino
  • 15. 15M77E-18 Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
  • 16. 16M77E-18 Research Scope France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom are regarded as the key centers of urban rail development, often setting standards for the urban rail market. Urban Rail Rolling Stock: Light rail systems, metro rail systems, and APMs (Guide way based train system) Topics Covered 2012 to 2021Forecast Period 2011 to 2021Study Period 2011Base Year Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom Geographical Scope 49.2% 48.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% Metro Light Rail APM Monorail Personal Rapid Transit RollingStockinActive Service Monorail and PRT systems are not covered in this study Urban Rail Market: Percent of Rolling Stock in Service, Western Europe, 2011 Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011 Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  • 17. 17M77E-18 Research Aims and Objectives Aim The objective of this study is to evaluate the revenue growth opportunities available for rolling stock manufacturers. The study offers strategic market sizing Forecast for the rolling stock segment, including the market drivers and restraints as well as the market share analysis in the metro, light rail, and APM segments. Objectives • The study provides a strategic overview of the urban rail market in Western Europe. It includes the key technology trends as well as market drivers and restraints for rolling stock. • It provides the market size and Forecast of rolling stock deliveries for the light rail, metro, and guide way segments as well as the regional breakdown from 2011 to 2021. • The study discusses the revenue Forecast of the urban rail rolling stock market by segment and the regional breakdown from 2011 to 2021. • The competitor analysis sections analyzes the competitive factors, competitor market shares, and product portfolio analysis and capabilities. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  • 18. 18M77E-18 Key Questions This Study Will Answer Who are the leading rolling stock suppliers in the metro, light rail, and guide way segments in Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Sweden? What are the new opportunities in rolling stock for urban rail? Which way is the urban rail signalling technology headed? Will radio-based signalling witness a rapid uptake in the urban rail environment? If so, in which environment and segment will it witness the uptake? What is the market share of the rolling stock in urban rail applications? Who is the market leader in each rolling stock segment in each country? What is the business environment of the Western European urban rail market? What are its market dynamics, and its impact on mobility and urbanization? Urban Rail Market: Key Questions This Study Will Answer, Western Europe, 2011 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  • 19. 19M77E-18 Year Research Study Title Title 2012 M77D-18 Strategic Insight on Global Rail Market Global 2011 M4DD-18 Strategic Analysis of the Global High Speed Rail Market Global 2011 M64A-18 North American Locomotive Market: A strategic Analysis of Powertrain Technologies and Auxiliary Systems Considered by OEMs for EPA Emission Compliance North America 2011 M6DB-18 Strategic Analysis of Alternative Powertrain Technologies in the European Diesel Locomotive and Railcar Market Europe 2011 N92D-18 An Executive Analysis on Passenger Rail Rolling Stock and Seating Systems Market in the U.S. USA 2011 P488-18 Green Technologies and Developments in Rail Transportation APAC 2010 M649-18 European Rail Catenary Systems – Executive Analysis of Copper Requirement for Electrification across Strategic European Markets Europe 2009 M3F5-18 Strategic Analysis of the European Rail Electrification Market Europe 2009 M1B6-18 Strategic Analysis of the European Light Rail and Underground Market - Part 2: Market Engineering Measurements Europe 2009 P2A3-18 Strategic Analysis of the Growth Opportunities in the Indian Rail Industry India 2009 M363-18 Strategic Opportunity Analysis of the Russian Rail Market: Implication for the Global Supply Chain Russia 2008 P391-18 360 Degree CEO Perspective on Green Transportation: Focus on Rail, Automotive and Procurement Global Research Background This research study strengthens our coverage of the rail industry. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  • 20. 20M77E-18 Company Designation Centro Media Manager Thales Managing Director, Market Analyst Invensys Rail Ltd Head of Innovation RATP External Business Development Manager Vectus Ltd. CTO, MD ULTra PRT Financial Controller 2getthere Commercial Director Rock Project Project Manager TFL UK Project Manager Siemens plc Project Manager Thales Market Analyst Ansaldo STS VP (Investor Relations) Bombardier Chief Innovation Officer Ansaldo STS Director Worldwide of Signaling BU Siemens Partner ALSTOM TRANSPORT Deputy Vice-President Investor Relations, Director, Urban Strategy Research Methodology: Frost & Sullivan’s research services are based on secondary and primary research data. Secondary Research: Extraction of information from existing research studies and project material within the Frost & Sullivan database, to include data and information gathered form technical papers, specialized magazines, seminars and internet research. Primary Research: More than 10 interviews have been conducted over the phone by senior consultants/industry analysts with original equipment suppliers, regulation authorities, and distributors. Primary research has accounted for 80.0 percent of the total research. Research Methodology Company Designation Skoda Transportation Vice-President, Sales Keolis Nordic AB Chairman of the Board AB Stockholms Spårvägar Chairman Urban Rail Market: Key Industry Participants, Western Europe, 2011 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  • 21. 21M77E-18 Key OEM/Participant Groups Compared in this Study Group OEMs/Divisions Alstom Alstom Transportation Bombardier Bombardier Transportation Siemens Siemens Mobility Thales Thales Transportation Invensys Invensys Rail Finmeccanica Ansaldo STS, Ansaldo Breda Group OEMs/Divisions Vossloh Vossloh Kiepe CAF CAF Stadler Stadler The OEM groups and companies compared in this study are as follows: Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

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