European Diesel Locomotive And Railcar Market: Strategic Analysis Of Rail Alternative Powertrain Technologies

  • 2,952 views
Uploaded on

The research service provides an analysis of the European diesel locomotive and diesel railcar market and focuses on powertrain technologies to be used. Many technologies will see immediate …

The research service provides an analysis of the European diesel locomotive and diesel railcar market and focuses on powertrain technologies to be used. Many technologies will see immediate application to cope with stringent emission norms stipulated by the European Union. The study segments the market by engine power and identifies the opportunities for new locomotives/railcars in each of these segments. It further provides an in-depth trend, forecast and penetration analysis of various powertrain technologies. The study also throws light on the various alternative technologies that will see increased adoption and their impact on the overall diesel locomotive/railcar market from 2010 to 2020.

Full report at : http://www.frost.com/m6db

For Additional Information

Katja Feick,
Corporate Communications, Automotive & Transportation
Ph: +49 (0) 69 7703343
e-mail: katja.feick@frost.com

Cyril Cromier,
Sales Director, Automotive & Transportation Europe
Ph: +33 1 42 81 22 44
e-mail: cyril.cromier@frost.com

Franck Leveque,
Vice President - Growth Consulting, Automotive & Transportation Europe
Ph: +49 (0)69 770 33 21 Bb: +49 (0)151 27 67 08 24
e-mail: franck.leveque@frost.com

More in: Business
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
  • Dear engineers of railway workers!

    Currently, European and Russian Railways are used on electric locomotives from powerful alkaline batteries.
    I suggest you translate traction locomotive pneumatic using compressed to thousands of atmospheres of air. Then you will need to install on locomotives receivers and decompression engines. They are easier and much cheaper with the same efficiency thrust.
    The question is, where to get compressed air with a pressure?
    My method is so simple and so effective that you will long to think how such a magnificent thing came up to you and no one else in the world! High air pressure will be created by railway trains with slight upgrade paths.
    And compressed air will be generated so much that will be enough for the production of additional megawatts of electrical energy and the implementation of compressed air needy consumers.
    From the point of view of ecology, this technology will make you the most advanced in the world in alternative energy technology in the world.

    I offer you mutually advantageous cooperation in the development of this technology.
    Engineer from Tashkent - Babamuratov Marat Akhmedovich.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
2,952
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2

Actions

Shares
Downloads
150
Comments
1
Likes
0

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. European Diesel Locomotive And Railcar Market: Strategic Analysis Of Rail Alternative Powertrain Technologies M6DB-18 February 2011© 2011 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan.
  • 2. Disclaimer Frost & Sullivan takes no responsibility for any incorrect information supplied to us by manufacturers or users. Quantitative market information is based primarily on interviews and therefore is subject to fluctuation. Frost & Sullivan research services are limited publications containing valuable market information provided to a select group of customers in response to orders. Our customers acknowledge when ordering that Frost & Sullivan research services are for our customers’ internal use and not for general publication or disclosure to third parties. No part of this research service may be given, lent, resold or disclosed to non-customers without written permission. Furthermore, no part may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the permission of the publisher. For information regarding permission, write: Frost & Sullivan 4 Grosvenor Gardens Sullivan House London SW1W 0DH United KingdomM6DB-18 2
  • 3. Certificate We hereby certify that the views expressed in this research service accurately reflect our views based on primary and secondary research with industry participants, industry experts, end users, regulatory organisations, financial and investment community and other related sources. In addition to the above, our robust in-house forecast and benchmarking models along with the Frost & Sullivan Decision Support Databases have been instrumental in the completion and publishing of this research service. We also certify that no part of our analyst compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or view expressed in this research service.M6DB-18 3
  • 4. Table Of ContentsChapter Content Slide Geographic Definitions and Research Timeline 19 Definitions 20 List of Units, Abbreviations and Acronyms 22 List of Industry participants 25 1 Executive Summary 27 2 Introduction to European Diesel Locomotive and Railcar Overview of European Rail Traffic 37 Segmentation of Diesel Locomotives and Railcars 38 Present Infrastructure 39 Passenger Demand 40 Utilization of Rail Infrastructure 41 Investment in Rail Infrastructure 42 Investment Patterns in Transport Infrastructure 43 3 Emission Norms and Regulations Rail Contribution to NOX and Particulate Matter Emissions 45 CO2 Emissions as per mode of transport 46M64A-18 4
  • 5. Table Of ContentsChapter Content Slide 3 Emission Norms and Regulations Emission Directive 2004/26/EC 47 Emission Control: Reduction in emissions through the stages 48 Emission Directive Pushing for Control In Rail Applications 49 PM VS NOX Level Analysis for Locomotives : Stage IIIB 50 PM VS NOX Level Analysis for Railcars : Stage IIIB 51 Need of Newer Fuel for Stage IIIB Engines 52 4 European Diesel Locomotive Market Overview of European Diesel Locomotive Market 54 Drivers and Restraints 55 Forecast 2010-2020 : Diesel Locomotives 57 Market Positioning of Locomotive Manufacturers by Power Rating 58 5 European Diesel Railcar Market Overview of European Diesel Multiple unit Market 60 Drivers and Restraints 61 Forecast 2010-2020 : Diesel Multiple Units 63M64A-18 5
  • 6. Table Of ContentsChapter Content Slide 5 European Diesel Railcar Market Market Positioning of Locomotive Manufacturers by Power Rating 64 6 Diesel Locomotive and Railcar Market Challenges 65 7 Modern Direct Injection Technologies Introduction to Injection Technologies 74 Impact of Common Rail on Emissions 75 Product Attractiveness and Penetration: Common Rail 76 Forecast 2010-2020 : Modern Injection Technologies in Diesel Locomotives 77 Forecast 2010-2020 : Modern Injection Technologies in Diesel Multiple Units 78 8 Boosting Technologies Introduction to Boosting 80 Variable Geometry Turbochargers 81 Product Attractiveness and Penetration: Variable Geometry Turbochargers 82 Forecast 2010-2020 : Variable Geometry Turbochargers in Diesel Locomotives 83 Forecast 2010-2020 : Variable Geometry Turbochargers in Diesel Multiple Units 84M64A-18 6
  • 7. Table Of ContentsChapter Content Slide 9 Energy Storage / Battery Technologies Introduction 86 Number of cycles Vs Energy Density 87 Comparison of Battery Technologies 88 Product Attractiveness and Penetration: Nickel Cadmium Batteries 89 Forecast 2010-2020 : Nickel Cadmium Batteries in Diesel Locomotives 90 Forecast 2010-2020 : Nickel Cadmium Batteries in Diesel Multiple Units 91 10 Power Control Technologies Product Attractiveness and Penetration: IGBT and PWM Rectifiers 94 Forecast 2010-2020 : IGBT systems in Diesel Locomotives and Railcars 95 Forecast 2010-2020 : PWM Rectifiers in Diesel Locomotives and Railcars 96 11 Hybrid Powertrain Product Attractiveness and Penetration: Hybrid Shunters 99 Forecast 2010-2020 : Hybrid Shunter Locomotives 100 12 Traction Motor Technologies Product Attractiveness and Penetration: Permanent Magnet Traction Motors 103M64A-18 7
  • 8. Table Of ContentsChapter Content Slide 12 Traction Motor Technologies Forecast 2010-2020 : Permanent Magnet Motors in Diesel Locomotives 104 Forecast 2010-2020 : Permanent Magnet Motors in Diesel Multiple Units 105 13 Exhaust Gas Recirculation and Other NOX Emission Control Technologies Exhaust Gas Recirculation 107 Selective Catalytic Reduction 109 Product Attractiveness and Penetration: Exhaust Gas Recirculation 111 Forecast 2010-2020 : EGR systems in Diesel Locomotives and Multiple Units 112 14 Diesel Particulate Filters Product Attractiveness and Penetration: Diesel Particulate Filters 115 Forecast 2010-2020 : DPF systems in Diesel Locomotives and Multiple Units 116 15 Idle Reduction Technologies: Auxiliary Power Units and Automatic Engine Start Stop APU and AESS Cost Savings 120 Product Attractiveness and Penetration: APU 122 Forecast 2010-2020 : APU systems in Diesel Locomotives and Multiple Units 123 Product Attractiveness and Penetration: AESS 124M64A-18 8
  • 9. Table Of ContentsChapter Content Slide 15 Idle Reduction Technologies: Auxiliary Power Units and Automatic Engine Start Stop Forecast 2010-2020 : AESS systems in Diesel Locomotives and Multiple Units 125 16 Conclusion and Recommendations Snapshot and Overview of Forecasts 127 Key Trends, Observations and Strategic Recommendations 130 17 About Frost & Sullivan 132M64A-18 9
  • 10. List of FiguresChapter Content Slide 1 Locomotive & Railcar Market: Number of Diesel Locomotives & Railcars Nearing Retirement Age (Europe), 2010 29 2 Rail Market: Segmentation & Number of Diesel Locomotives & Railcars by Engine Size (Europe), 2010 38 3 Locomotive & Railcar Market: Emission Standards for Engines 130KW ≤ Power ≤ 560KW in g/kWh (Europe), 2010 47 Locomotive & Railcar Market: Emission Standards for Engines of Locomotives & Railcars in g/kWh (Europe), 2010 47 Locomotive & Railcar Market: PM Vs NOX for Stage III B Locomotives (Europe) 2010 50 Locomotive & Railcar Market: PM Vs NOX for Stage IIIB Railcars (Europe) 2010 51 52 Locomotive & Railcar Market: Stage IIIB Fuel Specifications (Europe) 2010 4 Locomotive Market: Diesel Locomotive Forecast (Europe), 2010-2020 57 5 Railcar Market: Diesel Multiple Unit Forecast (Europe), 2010 63 9 Diesel Powertrain Market : Benchmarking of Key Battery Technologies (Europe), 2010 88 13 Diesel Powertrain Market : After Exhaust NOX Reduction (Europe), 2010 107 14 Diesel Powertrain Market: Effectiveness of the Diesel Oxidation Catalyst in Removing Emissions (Europe), 2010-2020 114 15 Diesel Powertrain Market: Cost Analysis with Break Even Time For APU & AESS Systems (Europe), 2010 120M64A-18 10
  • 11. List of ChartsChapter Content Slide 1 Locomotive Market & Railcar : Regional Split of Diesel Locomotives in Key Countries (Europe), 2010 27 Locomotive Market & Railcar : Regional Split of Diesel Multiple Units in Key Countries (Europe), 2010 27 Locomotive & Railcar Market: Overview of fleet installed in key countries (Europe), 2010 28 Locomotive & Railcar Market: Number of Diesel Locomotives & Railcars Nearing Retirement Age (Europe), 2010 29 Locomotive & Railcar Market: Total Diesel Locomotive Requirement (Europe), 2010-2020 30 Locomotive & Railcar Market: Total Diesel Railcar Requirement (Europe), 2010-2020 31 Locomotive & Railcar Market: Technology Roadmap (Europe), 2010-2020 32 Locomotive & Railcar Market : Penetration of APU Systems in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars (Europe), 2010-2020 33 Locomotive & Railcar Market : Comparison of Key Battery Technologies (Europe), 2010 33 Locomotive & Railcar Market : Technology Impact Vs Implementation (Europe), 2010-2020 34 Locomotive & Railcar Market : Key Findings (Europe), 2010 35 2 Rail Market : Passenger and Freight Traffic (Europe), 2010 37 Rail Market: Segmentation of Diesel Locomotives & Railcars by Application (Europe), 2010 38 Rail Market: Total Length of Railway Network & Electrification (Europe), 2010 39 Rail Market: Passenger Demand for Rail (Europe), 2010 40 Rail Market: Utilization of Rail Infrastructure for Freight Transport (Europe), 2010 41 Rail Market: Investment in transport infrastructure (Europe), 2010 42 Rail Market: Investment in Transportation Infrastructure in Billion Euros (Europe), 2000-2008 43M64A-18 11
  • 12. List of ChartsChapter Content Slide 3 Locomotive & Railcar Market : Oxides of Nitrogen, Sulfur and Particulate Matter Emission by Sector (Europe), 2010 45 Locomotive & Railcar Market: Specific CO2 emissions per tonne-km and per mode of transport, (Europe) 1995 - 2009 46 Locomotive & Railcar Market: Reduction in Emissions for Engines 130KW ≤ Power ≤ 560KW in g/kWh(Europe),2010 48 Locomotive & Railcar Market: Emissions for Engines in Rail Application - Stage IIIA & IIIB (Europe), 2010 49 Locomotive & Railcar Market: PM Vs NOX for Stage III B Locomotives (Europe) 2010 50 Locomotive & Railcar Market: PM Vs NOX for Stage IIIB Railcars (Europe) 2010 51 4 Locomotive Market: Regional Split of Diesel Locomotives in Key Countries (Europe), 2010 54 Locomotive Market: Overview of Diesel Locomotive Fleets Installed (Europe), 2010 54 Locomotive Market : Key Market Drivers (Europe), 2010-2020 55 Locomotive Market : Key Market Restraints (Europe), 2010-2020 56 Locomotive Market: Diesel Locomotive Forecast (Europe), 2010-2020 57 Locomotive Market: Market Positioning of Locomotive Manufacturers by Power Rating (Europe), 2010 58 5 Railcar Market: Regional Split of Diesel Multiple Units in Key Countries (Europe), 2010 60 Railcar Market: Overview of Diesel Multiple Unit Fleets Installed (Europe), 2010 60 Railcar Market : Key Market Drivers (Europe), 2010-2020 61 Railcar : Key Market Restraints (Europe), 2010-2020 62 Railcar Market: Diesel Multiple Unit Forecast (Europe), 2010 63 Railcar Market: Market Positioning of Railcar Manufacturers by Power Rating (Europe), 2010 64M64A-18 12
  • 13. List of ChartsChapter Content Slide 6 Locomotive & Railcar Market : Identification of Market Challenges (Europe), 2010 66 Locomotive & Railcar Market : Identifying Market Size (Europe), 2010 67 Locomotive & Railcar Market : Challenge Faced by Electrification (Europe), 2010 68 Locomotive & Railcar Market : Challenge of implementing New Technologies (Europe), 2010 69 Locomotive & Railcar Market : Challenge of Meeting Emission Norms (Europe), 2010 70 Locomotive & Railcar Market: OPEC Basket Prices of Diesel (Europe), 2010 71 Locomotive & Railcar Market: Country wise Comparison of Diesel Prices (Europe), 2010 72 Locomotive & Railcar Market: Diesel Consumption by Industry (Europe), 2010 72 7 Diesel Powertrain Market : Key Engine Technologies (Europe), 2010-2020 74 Diesel Powertrain Market : Drivers & Restraints for New Engine Technologies (Europe), 2010-2020 74 Diesel Powertrain Market : Impact of Common Rail, Electronic Injectors & Engine Management Systems on NOX & 75 PM Emissions for Diesel Locomotives & Railcars (Europe), 2010-2020 Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Common Rail, Electronic Injectors & Engine management 76 Systems (Europe), 2010-2020 Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Common Rail, Electronic Injectors & Engine management Systems in 76 Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Common Rail, Electronic Injectors & Engine management Systems in Diesel 77 Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020M64A-18 13
  • 14. List of ChartsChapter Content Slide 7 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Common Rail, Electronic Injectors & Engine management Systems in Diesel 78 Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-2020 8 Diesel Powertrain Market : Key Boosting Technologies (Europe), 2010-2020 80 Diesel Powertrain Market: Advantages of Variable Geometry Turbochargers (Europe), 2010 81 Diesel Powertrain Market: Drivers for Implementing Turbochargers (Europe), 2010 81 Diesel Powertrain Market: Variable Geometry Turbocharger (Europe), 2010 82 Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Variable Geometry Turbochargers (Europe), 2010-2020 82 Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Variable Geometry Turbochargers in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars 82 (Europe), 2010-2020 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Variable Geometry Turbochargers in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020 83 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Variable Geometry Turbochargers in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-2020 84 9 Diesel Powertrain Market: Drivers & Restraints for Implementing New Batteries (Europe), 2010 86 Diesel Powertrain Market : Key Battery Technologies (Europe), 2010-2020 86 Diesel Powertrain Market : Comparison of Key Battery Technologies (Europe), 2010 87 Diesel Powertrain Market : Benchmarking of Key Battery Technologies (Europe), 2010 88 Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Nickel Cadmium Battery Systems (Europe), 2010-2020 89 Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Nickel Cadmium Battery Systems in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars 89 (Europe), 2010-2020M64A-18 14
  • 15. List of ChartsChapter Content Slide 9 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Nickel Cadmium Battery Systems in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020 90 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Nickel Cadmium Battery Systems in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-2020 91 10 Diesel Powertrain Market: Drivers for Implementing next generation Electronic Power Control (Europe), 2010 93 Diesel Powertrain Market : Key Power Control Technologies (Europe), 2010-2020 93 Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of IGBT & PWM Rectifier Systems (Europe), 2010-2020 94 Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of IGBT & PWM Rectifier Systems in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars (Europe), 94 2010-2020 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of IGBT Systems in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020 95 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of IGBT Systems in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-2020 95 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of PWM Rectifier Systems in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-2020 96 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of PWM Rectifier Systems in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-2020 96 11 Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Hybrid Shunter Units (Europe), 2010-2020 99 Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Hybrid Shunter Units (Europe), 2010-2020 99 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Hybrid Battery based Shunter Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020 100 12 Diesel Powertrain Market: Drivers for Implementing Permanent Magnet Traction Motors (Europe), 2010 102 Diesel Powertrain Market : Key Traction Motor Technologies (Europe), 2010-2020 102 Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Permanent Magnet Motor Systems (Europe), 2010-2020 103M64A-18 15
  • 16. List of ChartsChapter Content Slide 12 Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Permanent Magnet Motor Systems in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars 103 (Europe), 2010-2020 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Permanent Magnet Motor Systems in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020 104 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Permanent Magnet Motor Systems in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010- 105 2020 13 Diesel Powertrain Market : Selective Catalytic Reduction (Europe), 2010-2020 109 Diesel Powertrain Market : Advantages and Disadvantages of Selective Catalytic Reduction (Europe), 2010-2020 109 Diesel Powertrain Market : Exhaust Gas Recirculation Mechanism of action (Europe), 2010-2020 110 Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Exhaust Gas Recirculation Systems (Europe), 2010-2020 111 Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Exhaust Gas Recirculation Systems in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars 111 (Europe), 2010-2020 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Exhaust Gas Recirculation Systems in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010- 112 2020 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Exhaust Gas Recirculation Systems in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010- 112 2020 14 Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Diesel Particulate Filters (Europe), 2010-2020 115 Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Diesel Particulate Filters in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars (Europe), 2010- 115 2020M64A-18 16
  • 17. List of ChartsChapter Content Slide 14 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Diesel Particulate Filters in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020 116 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Diesel Particulate Filters in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-2020 116 15 Diesel Powertrain Market: Calculation of Fuel savings by Auxiliary Power Units (Europe), 2010 118 Diesel Powertrain Market: Drivers for Implementing APU / AESS Systems (Europe), 2010 119 Diesel Powertrain Market : Key Engine Idle Reduction Technologies (Europe), 2010-2020 119 Diesel Powertrain Market: Cost Analysis with Break Even Time For APU & AESS Systems (Europe), 2010 120 Diesel Powertrain Market: Comparison Between APU, AESS & Hybrid Locomotives (Europe), 2010 121 Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Auxiliary Power Units (Europe), 2010-2020 122 Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Auxiliary Power Units in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars (Europe), 2010- 122 2020 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Auxiliary Power Units in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020 123 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Auxiliary Power Units in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-2020 123 Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Automatic Engine Start Stop Systems (Europe), 2010-2020 124 Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Automatic Engine Start Stop Systems in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars 124 (Europe), 2010-2020 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Automatic Engine Start Stop Systems in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010- 125 2020 16 Diesel Powertrain Market : Snapshot of Diesel Locomotives & Multiple Units (Sales) Forecast (Europe), 2010 – 2020 127M64A-18 17
  • 18. List of ChartsChapter Content Slide 16 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Alternate Powertrain Technologies in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020 128 Diesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Alternate Powertrain Technologies in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe),2010-2020 129 Diesel Powertrain Market: Trends and Performance Indicators (Europe),2010-2020 130 Diesel Powertrain Market: Recommendations for Locomotive & Railcar Manufacturers (Europe),2010-2020 131M64A-18 18
  • 19. Geographic Definitions and Research Timeline Base Base Forecast Forecast Year Year Period Period Time Time Short Term Short Term Medium Term Medium Term Long Term Long Term Line Line 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Geographic Regions Geographic Regions Objectives of the studyThis study aims to identify and analyze:•Diesel Locomotive & Railcar Market in key European States•Country Focus: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UnitedKingdom Study and analysis is focused in France,•Segment the Locomotives Market and identify the Market Size•Forecast Locomotive requirements by different segment Germany, Italy, Spain and United Kingdom•Analyze emission regulations•Provide an in-depth insight into powertrain technologies usedand considered for future emission compliance•Identify complimentary technologies that help reduce emissionsand save fuel and benchmark their potentials•Provide key finding and recommendation for the variousparticipants in the supply chain.M6DB-18 19
  • 20. Definitions A a vehicle for providing the motive power for a train. Has no Locomotive payload capacity of its own Railcar / Multiple A self propelled vehicle designed for transportation of Unit Passengers that can be used in multiples to form train sets Freight Locomotive that is designed for propelling freight cars or Locomotive wagons.. Passenger Locomotives designed and constructed primarily for the Locomotive purpose of propelling passenger coaches Switcher / Shunter Typically 4 axle locomotives that are primarily used to push and Locomotive compile railcars together to form trains within rail yards. Refers to the set of components that generate power and deliver it Powertrain to the rails through the wheelsM6DB-18 20
  • 21. Definitions Supplies electric energy to locomotives and multiple units so that Electrification they can operate without the need of an engineM6DB-18 21
  • 22. List of Units, Abbreviations and Acronyms APU Auxiliary power unit CAGR Compound annual growth rate CO Carbon monoxide DMU Diesel Multiple Unit DPF Diesel Particulate Filters EGR Exhaust Gas Recirculation EMU Electric Multiple Unit ERTMS European Rail Traffic Management system EU European Union FGT Fixed Geometry Turbocharger G/kWh The amount of pollutant exhausted in grams per kilowatt per hour by the engine HC Hydrocarbons HVAC Heating, Ventilating and Air conditioning IGBT Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor Li-ion Lithium Ion BatteryM6DB-18 22
  • 23. List of Units, Abbreviations and Acronyms mboe Million Barrels of Oil Equivalent Mpass/km Millions of passengers per kilometre Mt/km Millions of Tonnes per kilometre Ni-CD Nicked Cadmium Battery NI-MH Nickel Metal Hydride Battery NOX Oxides of Nitrogen Passenger Km (pkm) Passenger volume obtained by multiplying number of passengers by the distance travelled Pb Acid Lead Acid battery PM Particulate matter PM Motor Permanent magnet motor Power (kW) The rate at which energy is converted / work is performed Ppm Parts per million PWM Pulse width Modulated SCR Selective Catalytic Reduction SOX Oxides of Sulfur TEN-t Trans-European Transport Networks in EuropeM6DB-18 23
  • 24. List of Units, Abbreviations and Acronyms Tonne Km (tkm) The service of moving one tonne of payload a distance of one kilometre VGT Variable Geometry Turbocharger Watt hours/Litre (Wh/L) Measure of how much Energy can be stored in a battery per unit volumeM6DB-18 24
  • 25. List of Industry Participants Rail Locomotive Market: Indicative List of Interviewed Companies (Europe), 2010 Companies Interviewed GE Transportation Bombardier Transportation Clayton Equipment European Environmental RailPower Schoma Agency Vossloh AHL Tech Voith Siemens Mobility Stadler Enersys Fuel Cell Propulsion Institute HOTSTART Saft Batteries JM Exhaust MTU Tognum Source: Frost & Sullivan Extensive telephonic interviews were conducted with regulators, locomotive manufacturers and system suppliers, Primary research has accounted for 80% of the total research. Multiple interviews with senior level executives were conducted with some companies to obtain a holistic view of the market. 25
  • 26. Chapter 1: Executive Summary 26
  • 27. Overview of European Rail Market: Snapshot of Diesel Locomotive and Railcar Fleets Locomotive Market & Railcar : Regional Split of Diesel Locomotives in Key Countries (Europe), 2010 UK • Germany and France are the biggest diesel 8% locomotive markets. Together they have a combined France share of 65% with 6198 locomotives 34% Germany • UK has the smallest locomotive fleet, but it is expected 31% to have the highest freight traffic growth rate. UK Germany • Aging fleet and increased traffic to boost locomotive Spain 4% sales with a CAGR of 4.13% Italy Spain Total Volume: Italy 19% 8% 9172 Locomotives France Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan Locomotive Market & Railcar : Regional Split of Diesel Multiple Units in Key Countries (Europe), 2010 UK, France, Italy • Germany is the largest markets for diesel railcars and France set to become big UK will continue to be the biggest consumer for new 14% markets 18% railcars through to 2020. • Dual mode railcars are set to become a major trend as Italy the percentage of electrified lines is steadily increasing 19% UK across countries. Germany Spain Germany 8% Spain Total Volume: 41% Italy 6149 DMUs FranceNote: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan 27 27
  • 28. Defining the Universe: France and Germany together constitute 61% of the overall diesel locomotive and railcar market Locomotive & Railcar Market: Overview of fleet installed in key countries (Europe), 2010 United Kingdom has a mandate pushing Germany is the biggest market for more electrification which is expected 4574 for diesel locomotives with Power to result in shift of numbers from diesel to > 2000 kW electric locomotives by 2020 969 1150 Higherelectrification 8751 13613 levels on passenger United Kingdom routes has 3280 dampened 2918 2577 DMU 831 presence France 103051 Germany Despite high 25717 electrification levels, 17568 DMUs are still used to For immediate 3216 6554 service low traffic interoperability routes purposes Spain is Europe(Estimate)expected to procure more diesel 1264 553 355 Total locomotives by 1765 2020. Diesel Locomotives Diesel Multiple Units Note: All figures are rounded; Spain Italy Total= Diesel + Electric units (locomotives & railcars) the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan 28 28
  • 29. Locomotive fleet Age Analysis: 10298 Locomotives & 1860 Railcars likelyto be replaced starting 2015 Locomotive & Railcar Market: Number of Diesel Locomotives & Railcars Nearing Retirement Age (Europe), 2010 Power Average Number • France and Germany will be the biggest and first Country Operator Class Rating Age of Units market to pursue replacements (kW) DB 232 2200 38 709 SchenkerGermany DB 290 810 47 408 Key identified operators Schenker with massive locomotive DB Regio 218 2061 40 398 replacement potential SNCF Y 8000 220 34 374 France SNCF Y7400 129 48 437 • The Average age of all diesel locomotive fleets in 5501 countries listed below is 36.69 years. 6000 24% • The Average age of all diesel railcar fleets in 6% Number of Units countries listed below is 26.93 years. 4000 6% 2327 2000 1548 930 202 289 424 160 498 279 0 France Germany Italy Spain United KingdomNote: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010.Source: Frost & Sullivan Locmotives (Age >30) Railcars (Age >25) 29 29
  • 30. Sales by 2020: The European diesel locomotive market is concentrated heavily in the 560kW – 2000kW power range and is expected to grow by 54% Locomotive & Railcar Market: Total Diesel Locomotive Requirement (Europe), 2010-2020 Total number of Total Parked:Diesel locomotives For power > 2000kW in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK (1980-2010): 36153 expected to be Total Diesel units sold: 386 | Total Electric units sold: 4302 CAGR sold by 2020 : 10862 1.83% 7328 Diesel units have limited proliferation in this Diesel units are most attractive to operators power segment. with un-electrified lines and freight companies Total Parked: 25291 France has a total of 965 and Germany has 632 identified units with age greater than 40 UK has a relatively younger fleet in this segment and is expected to have lowered 5540 2000-2010 saw massive orders in UK for 221 demand (521 units delivered in 1990-2010) CAGR 17109 units, in France for 315 and in Germany for 5.85% 265 units. France has 498 diesel units that have are reaching retirement age ( classes BB 67400, BB Electric presence in this power category is 66000, BB 67200 and BB 69200 ) 11071 virtually non existent Italy, France & Germany have a total of 1767 UK has 92 Diesel units currently operating locomotives with age greater than 40 years. (classes 08,09 & 20) Average age: 58.45 11721 CAGR 8680 Electric alternatives are virtually non existent Although requirements of shunting duty have 2.05% in this segment reduced in UK, there is still strong demand. Locomotives in the power range 560-2000kW can be used as medium shunters as 2010 2020 well as for line haul 130 kW< Power < 560 kW 560 kW< Power < 2000 kW Power > 2000 kW Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan 30 30
  • 31. Sales by 2020: The European diesel railcar market is concentrated heavily in the 130kW – 560kW power range and is expected to grow by 45% Locomotive & Railcar Market: Total Diesel Railcar Requirement (Europe), 2010-2020 Total number of Total Parked: Diesel Multiple Units are virtually non Italy, Germany & Spain took deliveries of 1553DMUs expected to 26820 existent in this category EMUs in 2000-2010 be sold by 2020 : 185 9314 For this category in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK (1980-2010): Total DMUs sold: 1823 | Total EMUs: 4805 9306Total Parked: This is the fastest growing DMU segment. Factors with biggest impact: CAGR 17506 •Increased connectivity Power 130 -2000 kW : By 2020, 717 units are 9.73% 149 •Passenger volumes expected to reach retirement age •Increased government interest 5440 For this category in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK (1980-2010): Total DMUs sold: 3168 | Total EMUs: 780 17329 Germany & UK have had a combined delivery Factors with biggest impact: 11917 CAGR of 1719 DMUs in 1990-2010 •Lower cost of utilizing infrastructure 7.65% •Ease of adaptability to demand This segment is largest market for the DMUs •Funding aid for municipalities from government for the move towards mass transportation As railcars have power generated from multiple sources, the power range 130-560kW 2010 2020 is more attractive for light to medium density passenger loads 130 kW< Power < 560 kW 560 kW< Power < 2000 kW Power > 2000 kW Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan 31 31
  • 32. European Locomotive & Railcar Technology Roadmap 2010-2025: PowertrainDownsizing, Transmission Automation and Digitized Controls Emerging as the KeyR&D Focal Points Locomotive & Railcar Market: Technology Roadmap (Europe), 2010-2020 Idle Auxiliary Power Systems Reduction Automatic Start Stop Systems Energy Dynamic Braking Regenerative Braking Locomotive recovery Systems Energy Lead Acid Batteries Lithium Ion / Nickel Cadmium Storage Ultra capacitors Traction Motors AC Induction AC Permanent Magnet Electronic PWM Rectifiers Adaptive Control Power Control IGBT Control Exhaust Gas Intercoolers & Turbochargers Advanced Variable Geometry Turbochargers Utilization Locomotive Engines Fuel Injection Common Rail Direct Ignition & Advanced Combustion Homogeneous Charge Variable Valve Timing . Source: Frost & Sullivan Compression Ignition Exhaust After Exhaust Gas Recirculation Treatment Selective Catalytic Reduction Diesel Oxidation Catalyst + Diesel Particulate Filters Alternate Hydrogen Fuel Hydrogen Fuel Cell Hybrid Fuels Cell Hybrid Full Hybrid – Li-ion Battery electric Locomotive Lead acid battery Mild Hybrid Locomotive locomotive 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025M6DB-18 32
  • 33. 2020 Diesel Powertrain Market: Penetration of APU systems in locomotives rises to 61%; Locomotives and railcars to utilize newer battery technologies Locomotive & Railcar Market : Penetration of APU Systems in Locomotive & Railcar Market : Comparison of Key Battery Diesel Locomotives & Railcars (Europe), 2010-2020 Technologies (Europe), 2010 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 1600 Stage IIIB emission deadlines will not cause drastic 80% implementation of APU systems in locomotives. However Number of CyclesImplementation (%) due to its significant contribution to fuel savings, Operators 1200 will gradually adopt APU systems. Manufacturers are likely 60% to slowly offer it as standard to remain competitive 61% 800 55% 55% 54% 40% Shift in focus towards newer battery 43% Railcars have Head End 400 technologies in rail applications power units that double as 32% 20% APU systems when engine is 9% 23% not operating. 0 19% 13% 16% 0% 0 50 100 150 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Energy Density Locomotives Railcars Pb Acid Ni-Cd Ni Mh Li Ion Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan • Over 1408 diesel locomotives are expected to have APU • Pb Acid is expected to lose favour towards newer battery systems installed by 2020. technologies. • Will see highest rates of implementation in the 560- • Ni-Cd and Li-ion batteries seem to have greatest levels of 2000kW power category. interest and research for rail applications. • Fuel Savings of up to 29000 litres in one working year. • Li-ion batteries have greatest energy densities and are • It is expected to achieve 61% implementation in all perfectly suited for hybrid locomotives. locomotives by 2020. • Ni-Cd batteries are slowly replacing Pb Acid batteries. • Product attractiveness is expected to reach greater than • Ni-Cd batteries are expected to capture 35% of the market 80% on the desirability scale. share by 2020. 33 33
  • 34. By 2020 Diesel Locomotives in Europe are expected to be far more fuelefficient (by 16- 20%) than they were in 2010: Advanced Alternative Power-trainTechnologies are Likely to be the Key Enablers Newer battery technology Auxiliary Power Unit that Proliferation of cam-less Near Future leading to more efficient, keeps locomotive running high energy, high capacity when engine is shut down engines with HCCI solutions during idling Robust electronics that Increased Energy Advances in power are an integral part of the Regeneration from as transmission electronics, ReducedImplementation engine. Air cooled many sources as possible drives and motors running inverters more efficient Increased costs Profits Lightweight materials with Advanced Microprocessor Optimized Air higher strengths reduce Control, Increased management Systems. problems of creep, Software control Of Power With controlled turbo- repeated stress strain Distribution charging. cycles Immediate Exhaust After treatment Smaller Cleaner Engines Newer Aerodynamic that reduces particulate with improvements in Fuel modeling solutions for matter and NOX become injection, Valve Actuation, chassis that aim to reduce standard Friction Losses Induced drag. Very High Impact HighM6DB-18 34
  • 35. Key Takeaways : Europe Diesel Powertrain Markets Locomotive & Railcar Market : Key Findings (Europe), 201010,298 Locomotives & 1,860 Railcars Diesel Locomotive Market in the Common rail injection systems tolikely to be replaced starting 2015 560-2,000 kW range expected to become standard for all diesel grow at 5.85% CAGR powertrainsBattery based hybrid locomotives Permanent magnet traction motorsideal for shunter / switcher to have tremendous marketapplications. Expected to be gain penetration from current levels, 2%prominence by 2020 to 27% by 2020Alternate fuels and Fuel cell OEMs to expand portfolio to havetechnologies still in research phase. Key Findings presence in all power segments Variable geometry turbochargersLow Sulfur diesel is to become likely to have 100% implementationstandard supply in all railcars by 2020By 2020, Battery technologies likeLi-ion are expected to have A total of 7313 units (both dieselincreased presence and be locomotives and railcars) areeconomically feasible. Current expected to utilise at least one formgeneration NiCD set to replace lead of idle reduction (example APU) Strong demand for passenger railacid cars : 3247 Units expected to be delivered by 2020 Source: Frost & Sullivan 35 35
  • 36. Chapter 12: Traction Motor Technologies 36
  • 37. Traction Motors:AC motors with permanent magnetsThree phase asynchronous motors have seen increased Diesel Powertrain Market : Key Traction Motormarket presence in the last 10 years as they have Technologies (Europe), 2010-2020greater efficiency and very efficient at brake energyrecovery. Permanent Magnet MotorConventionally used for wind turbines, permanent Three Phase Asynchronousmagnet motors are seeing increased usage in rail Motorapplications. Diesel Powertrain Market: Drivers for Implementing Permanent Magnet Traction Motors (Europe), 2010 Source: Frost & Sullivan Reduced Optimized Larger portion volume & energy of braking can Permanent Magnet Motor: weight efficiency be done Bombardier Mitrac electrically •Reduced energyDrivers consumption •Less requirements for motor cooling •Higher performance Source: Bombardier Source: Frost & Sullivan 37 37
  • 38. Permanent Magnet Traction Motors : Very high desirability and is poisedto replace conventional traction motor technologies Diesel Powertrain Market :Product Attractiveness of Permanent Magnet Motor Systems (Europe), 2010-20202010 Product Attractiveness • Over 2-5% savings in energy potential throughout fleet2020 • Enhanced brake energy 0 20 40 60 80 100 regeneration • Increased friction brake life Disirability in % Diesel Powertrain Market : Penetration of Permanent Magnet Motor Systems in Diesel Locomotives & Railcars (Europe), 2010-2020 Expected to become industry standard by 27% 30% 2017 24%Implementation (%) 25% 21% 20% 17% 18% 15% 12% 13% 10% 10% 7% 5% 2% 3% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PM Motor 38 38
  • 39. Permanent Magnet Traction Motor Forecast : Diesel LocomotivesBy 2020, 430 diesel locomotives are likely to use PM motorsDiesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Permanent Magnet Motor Systems in Diesel Locomotives (Europe), 2010-2020 • Operators are currently upgrading DC traction motors to AC traction motors for increased savings and reduced operating costs. • At present, permanent magnet motors are being used in a blended mode (out of 6 total motors:4 induction and 2 permanent magnet motors) for trial and testing purposes. • So far the PM motor has been extremely successful and is undergoing further testing. 100 90 • Diesel locomotives tend to have the option of having hydraulic transmissions 12 80 • Dual mode diesel and electric locomotives are having increased 70 presence as rail operators demand interoperability. It is this 11 Number of Units locomotive market that PM motors will have greatest penetration in 60 10 50 8 57 40 6 44 36 6 29 30 4 24 20 3 16 2 12 10 1 8 17 19 20 22 1 6 12 13 3 9 0 2 1 3 4 7 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 130<Power<560 560<Power<2000 Power>2000 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan 39 39
  • 40. Permanent Magnet Traction Motor Forecast : Diesel RailcarsBy 2020, 517 diesel multiple units are likely to use PM motorsDiesel Powertrain Market: Forecast of Permanent Magnet Motor Systems in Diesel Multiple Units (Europe), 2010-2020 • PM motors have greatest significance for railcars : increased motor life, reduced railcar weight and availability of torque in a wide speed range • Reduction in size of up to 25% coupled with quiet vibration free operation makes it ideal for multiple unit applications. 120 • Demand in 2010 is at 1% of total traction motor market. PM motors 100 have high efficiencies and are expected to have tremendous penetration of 27% by start of 2017. 48 • After which PM motors are expected to become industry standard Number of Units 80 39 60 35 26 40 21 17 65 13 55 20 45 8 31 36 4 18 22 2 10 14 0 2 1 4 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 130<Power<560 560<Power<2000 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan 40 40
  • 41. Chapter 17: About Frost & Sullivan 41
  • 42. Who is Frost & Sullivan• The Growth Consulting Company • Founded in 1961, Frost & Sullivan has over 45 years of assisting clients with their decision-making and growth issues • Over 1,700 Growth Consultants and Industry Analysts across 32 global locations. • Over 10,000 clients worldwide - emerging companies, the global 1000 and the investment community. • Developers of the Growth Excellence Matrix – industry leading growth positioning tool for corporate executives. o • Developers of T.E.A.M. Methodology, proprietary process to ensure that clients receive a 360 perspective of technology, markets and growth opportunities. • Three core services: Growth Partnership Services, Growth Consulting and Career Best Practices. 42 42
  • 43. What Makes Us Unique o• Exclusively Focused on Growth • 360 Perspective TM Global thought leader exclusively focused on Proprietary T.E.A.M. Methodology integrates addressing client growth strategies and plans – all 6 critical research methodologies to Team actively engaged in researching and significantly enhance the accuracy of decision developing of growth models that enable clients making and lower the risk of implementing to achieve aggressive growth objectives. growth strategies.• Industry Breadth • Growth Monitoring Cover the broad spectrum of industries and Continuously monitor changing technology, technologies to provide clients with the ability to markets and economics and proactively address look outside the box and discover new and clients growth initiatives and position. innovative ideas. • Trusted Partner• Global Perspective Working closely with client Growth Teams – 32 global offices ensure that clients receive a helping them generate new growth initiatives global coverage/perspective based on regional and leverage all of expertise. Frost & Sullivan assets to accelerate their growth. 43 43
  • 44. T.E.A.M. Methodology • Frost & Sullivan’s proprietary T.E.A.M. methodology, ensures that clients have complete “360 Degree Perspective” from which to drive decision-making. Technical, Econometric, Application, and Market information ensures that clients have a comprehensive view of industries, markets and technology. Technical Real-time intelligence on technology, including emerging technologies, new R&D breakthroughs, technology forecasting, impact analysis, groundbreaking research, and licensing opportunities. Econometric In-depth qualitative and quantitative research focused on timely and critical global, regional, and country specific trends, including the political, demographic, and socioeconomic landscapes. Application Insightful strategies, networking opportunities, and best practices that can be applied for enhanced market growth; interactions between the client, peers, and Frost & Sullivan representatives that result in added value and effectiveness. Market Global and regional market analysis, including drivers and restraints, market trends, regulatory changes, competitive insights, growth forecasts, industry challenges, strategic recommendations, and end-user perspectives. 44 44
  • 45. Global Perspective • 1,700 staff across every major market worldwide • Over 10,000 clients worldwide from emerging to global 1000 companies 45 45