UNWTO Tourism Report 20100

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  • 1. 2010 International TourismResults and Prospects for 2011 UNWTO News Conference HQ, Madrid, Spain 17 January 2011 John G.C. Kester Tourism Trends and Marketing Strategies Programme
  • 2. 2010: Multi-speed recovery International tourist arrivals, 1995-2010* 1000 935 913 894 900 877 839 795 800 755million 695 684 700 675 675 626 602 586 600 561 528 500 400 1995 2000 2005 2010*
  • 3. International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolutionWorld (% change) 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 +2.1% -4.0% +6.7% -15 2008 2009 2010*Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
  • 4. International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolutionAdvanced economies & Emerging economies (% change) 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 Advanced economies -15 Emerging economies -20 2008 2009 2010*Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
  • 5. Growth driven by emerging destinations 550 International tourist arrivals by country of destination 500million 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 advanced economies emerging economies 100 50 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010* Source: World Tourism Organization
  • 6. Growth driven by emerging destinations 100 International tourist arrivals by country of destination 90 advanced economiesshare (%) 80 emerging economies 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010* Source: World Tourism Organization
  • 7. No r th -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 e rn Eu -5 ro p W e es -0.1 te r Ce nE n tr u ro -3 a l/ 09*/08 Ea pe International Tourist Arrivals 5 s te So rn Eu u th -10 ro p e rn e /M 4 2010* ed ite -4 r. E No uSource: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) © 2 r th -E as tA -3 So s ia 14 u th -E as tA 1 s ia 12 Oc ea -2 n ia 6 So u th -3 As No ia 10 r th Am -6 e ri ca 8 Ca rib be -3 Ce an 4 n tr al Am Multi-speed recovery -7 e ri So ca 8 u th Am -2 e ri ca 10 No rth Af 3 Su ric bs a 6 ah a ra nA 4 fr i c a 7 Mi dd le -6 Ea st 14 (% change over same period of the previous year)
  • 8. Is it just a ‘dead cat bounce’ or a real new up-trend?
  • 9. International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolutionWorld (million) 120 2007 110 2008 100 2009 90 2010* 80 70 2010: 935 mn 60 2009: 877 mn => 2010: +58 mn 50 2008: 913 mn => 2010: +22 mn 40 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov decSource: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
  • 10. 2010 compared to pre-crisis peak year 2008International Tourist Arrivals (% change 2010 over pre-crisis peak year 2008) 15 10.6 12.7 10.7 7.5 7.8 8.4 7.5 10 2.5 4.2 5 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0 -5 -1.6-10 -5.5 -6.3 sia ica sia ld ia st nia a e ica ica . an a e Eu op ric ric op .. As Ea or be E. tA tA er er er ea Af Af W ur ur r. Am Am Am uth rib le rn ite Oc as as nE nE rth an dd ste Ca ed -E -E So uth rth ar al No r ter Mi the rth uth n/M Ea ntr ah No es So No r al/ Ce So bs No er W ntr Su uth Ce SoSource: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©International Tourist Arrivals (absolute change 2010 over pre-crisis peak year 2008, million) 30 22.4 25 20 15 10.8 7.9 10 2.9 1.5 1.7 1.4 2.9 4.2 5 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0 -5-10 -3.1 -2.8 -6.3 sia sia ld ica nia ia a st ica . e an ica a e Eu op op ric ric .. As Ea or be E. tA tA er er er ea Af Af W r ur r. Eu Am Am Am uth rib le rn ite Oc as as nE rth an dd ste Ca ed n -E -E So rth uth ar al No ter er Mi rth uth n/M Ea ntr ah rth No es So No al/ Ce So bs No er W ntr Su uth Ce SoSource: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
  • 11. Confidence confirmed UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts 175Better 150 125Equal 100 75 Prospects 50Worse Evaluation 25 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
  • 12. Confidence confirmed UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts 175 150144 144140 140 Better 150 136 137143 132 140 138 131 119 125 98 Equal 100 71 72 75 Prospects (before) Worse 50 Evaluation (after) 25 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
  • 13. Outlook 2011 International Tourist Arrivals Forecast 2011: 4% to 5% 12 10.3 10 8.0 8 6.6 6.7 change (%) 6 5.4 5.5 4 3.0 2.1 2 -0.1 0 -2 -1.6 -4 -4.0 -6 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010* 2011*Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
  • 14. International Tourism 2011 –Forecast 2010 Forecast 2011 World +6.7% 4% to 5% Europe +3.2% 2% to 4% Asia and the Pacific +12.6% 7% to 9% Americas +7.7% 4% to 6% Africa +6.4% 4% to 7% Middle East +13.9% 7% to 10%Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
  • 15. Actual Trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision Forecast World International Tourist Arrivals 1,600 Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Actual 1995-2010* 1,400 1.6 bn 1,200 1.0 bn 1,000million 800 935 mn 600 877 mn 400 534 mn 200 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
  • 16. Thank you very much for your attention! World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) www.unwto.org John Kester Tourism Trends and Marketing Strategies Programme