Early Warning System for Flood Risk Management

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  • 1. International Program Civil Engineering for Risk ManagementAn end to end Early Warning System- Lessons Learned from Recent Floods S.H.M. Fakhruddin Team Leader- Hydrology fakhruddin@rimes.int 08 March 2012 Politecnico di Milano, Dipartimento di Templates Pianificazione Free Powerpoint Architettura e
  • 2. Discussion Topics• An end to end EWS• About RIMES• Case Study- Bangladesh Flood• Lessons Learned from Thailand Flood 2011 Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 3. EW System Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 4. EW System Structure Detection SubsystemMonitoring, detection, data Assessment,data analysis, prediction Management Subsystem Risk Assessment, interpretation, communication Response Subsystem Interpretation, confirmation and response Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 5. Reasons for Warning Failure Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 6. Gaps  Regulatory framework for warning  Stakeholders involvement and rolesObservation/ monitoring  Aging and insufficient observation and data communication facilities Data analysis  Data sharing among agencies  Numerical prediction capability Prediction Risk assessment  Skilled human resource  Capacity to make use of new generation forecasts Potential impact assessment  Local level potential impact assessment not done  Language Warning formulation  Localized, relevant Preparation of response options  Institutional mechanism, linkages  SOPs  Redundant communication systems Dissemination to at-risk communities  Reach to special groups  Public awareness  Communication of forecast limitations Emergency response plans Community response Public education/ awareness  Lack of trainers/ facilitators Free Powerpoint Templates Mitigation programs  Resources to respond to warning
  • 7. Factors to Consider in choosing a Warning Communication Technology• Targeting populations-at-risk, communication for warning must take into account – Who are the recipients – Where they are located – What they are doing – Time of day. – Season (e.g., peak tourist season) – what they rely upon to receive local news and information – what special needs they may have, and – how well they understand and accept the warning in order to take action. Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 8. Warning Technology Parameters• Reliability• Coverage• Messaging• Emergency Issues Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 9. Decision Support Framework Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 10. DSS Development Process Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 11. Risk Assessment Risk Scoping Feedback Risk Characterization• Establish target andcriteria throughconsultation with Risk Evaluationstakeholders • Estimate for risk• Identify possible event and receptor: •Risk event •Likelihood of •Source of stress exposure to stressors Risk Management •Stress receptors •Relationship •Consequences •Compare event between sources of exposure to and total risks with stress targets and criteria •Evaluate and receptor •Develop risk •Assess existing treatment options profile risk management •Develop strategy practices against based on option risk profile Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 12. Flood Risk Characterization flood characteristics with respect to onset, peak, recession and duration for the selected major river stations. Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 13. 1 Need/ capacity assessments Assessment of available2 technology Capacity building through3 partnerships Climate Institutionalization of end-to- Forecast4 end system: pilot demonstrations, replication Application Apply information to enable Methodology:5 pro-active decision making Six step Monitor and evaluate6 applicability of information process Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 14. End-to-end climate informationgeneration and application system Providing climate outlook Interpreting global climate outlook into local outlook Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios Communication of response options/ feedback Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 15. Focused Intervention National institutions Global climate End-users information providers Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 16. About RIMES Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 17. RIMES Member States Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 18. Purpose and objectivesPurpose: Provide early warning services for enhanced preparedness, response, and mitigation of natural hazards, according to differing needs and demands of its Member StatesObjectives: Facilitate establishment and maintenance of core regional observation and monitoring networks and ensure data availability for early warning Provide regional tsunami watch within the framework of UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) Support National Meteorological and Hydrological services for providing localized hydro-meteorological risk information within the framework of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Enhance warning response capacities at all levels (national to Free Powerpoint Templates community) within each national early warning framework
  • 19. GovernanceCouncil Heads of NMHSs/ national scientific and technical agencies generating multi- hazard early warning information, empowered to make policy decisions, on behalf of governments, concerning regional early warning arrangements for enhanced preparedness for, response to, and mitigation of natural hazards Chair: Government of IndiaSecretariat Carries out the decisions and tasks assigned by the Council, and provides support to the Program Unit in managing the regional early warning center Government of Maldives (Presidential Task Force led by the H.E. Vice President of Maldives) serves as Administrative Secretariat; Government of Mongolia (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) as Program SecretariatProgram Unit Responsible for the day-to-day operation and management of the regional early warning center and the implementation of programs and activities Free Powerpoint Templates Co-located with the RIMES regional early warning Center
  • 20. Organizational Chart Council Secretariat Director, Program UnitTsunami Watch Provision Support to Hydro-Met Services Societal Applications Program Management Chief Scientist Chief Scientist Team Leader Chief Tsunami Early Warning Climate Change Climate Risk Management Program Management Seismologist Chief Scientist Climate Impact ICKM Specialist Seasonal Forecasting Assessment Team Oceanographer Finance Officer Chief Scientist Climate Forecast Severe Weather Application Team Seconded Scientists (6) Human Resource and Administration Officer Project Teams Telecommunications Synoptician Specialist Hydrologist Team Leader System Analysts (2) Early Warning Seconded Scientists (2) Warning Coordination Earthquake Hazard and Scientist Risk Assessment Expert System Analyst Tsunami Hazard and Risk Assessment Expert Decision-support Tool Development Specialist GIS and Survey Specialist Free Powerpoint Templates Project Teams Capacity Building Specialist
  • 21. RIMES- Facilities for Water Hazard Risk Management• Long lead Probabilistic flood forecasting and community level application• River Basin Outlook for the Region• Drought early warning system• Decision Support System for IWRM• Ensemble Forecast Verification System• Urban Flood Modelling• Infrastructure Management using Flood forecasting• Climate Change and Hydrological impacts• Storm surge modelling• Water Quality & Ground water• Early Warning Audits Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 22. Case Study- Long Lead FloodForecasting for Societal Benefits Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 23. Long Lead Flood Forecasting and Applications• Research Project initiated since 2000 and completed in 2007• GoB requested RIMES to continue to support• RIMES provides 10 days lead time flood forecast to GoB and build capacity Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 24. Institutional Collaboration For Sustainable End-to-end Flood Forecasts System Climate (rainfall and discharge) forecasting technology RIMES- CFAN BMD RIMES Flood forecast RIMES FFWC Discharge Agro met translation translation Interpretation DMB, DAE RIMES, Local Partners Communication RIMES, Local Partners End users Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 25. Discharge Forecast Schemes (I). Initial Data (II). Statistical (III). (IV). Generation of (V). Input Rendering Hydrological Probabilistic Q Forecast Modeling Product Discharge data • Accounting for Hydrological uncertainties Model • Final errorHydrologic model parameters • Lumped correction • Generation of • Distributed discharge • Multi-Model forecast PDF NOAA and NASA (i.e.CMORPH and GPCP) Discharge • Critical levelsatellite precipitation & GTS Forecasting probability rain gauge data forecast ECMWFOperational ensemble Downscaling of forecasts forecast Statistical correction Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 26. 2007 Flood- Brahmaputra Ensemble Forecasts and Danger Level Probabilities 7-10 day Ensemble Forecasts 7-10 day Danger Levels 7 day 8 day 7 day 8 day 9 day 10 day 9 day 10 day Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 27. Distribution of H combined with DEM --> probabilities of flood classesDEM Distribution of H values Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 28. Vulnerability & Flood Risk Assessment• Development of flood risk map which will include: – low probability Social Map – medium probability – high probability Flood Vulnerable area Map Flood Risk Map Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 29. USER MATRIX on Disasters, Impacts andManagement Plan for Crop, Livestock and Fisheries Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 30. DSSHigh flood J F M A M J J A S O N DT.Aman 1 1 3T.Aus 2 2 2 3Jute 3S.Vegetables 4 4 4Cattle 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5…Recommendations1. Delayed seedling raising, gapfilling, skipping early fertilizer application2. Advance harvest3. Early harvest4. Pot culture (homestead), Use resistant variety5. Food storage, flood shelter, vaccination de-warming Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 31. Risk Communication of flood forecasts Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 32. Risk Communication for Flood Forecasts Mobile phoneSending SMS to Mobile Flag hoisting Free Powerpoint Templates 32
  • 33. Community responses to flood forecasts Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 34. Economic- Benefits• In 2008 Flood, Economic Benefits on average per household at pilot areas – Livestocks = TK. 33,000 ($485) per household – HH assets = TK. 18,500 ( $270) per household – Agriculture = TK 12,500 ($180) per household Average Amount of Saving per Household – Fisheries = TK. 8,800 ( $120) per households Save Fishereis Save Livestock• Experiment showed that every Save HH assets USD 1 invested, a return of USD Save agriculture 40.85 in benefits over a ten-year period may be realized (WB). 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 Free Powerpoint Templates Amount (TK.)
  • 35. Analytical tools which can be used Free Powerpoint Templates interventions for subsequent to assist in preparing preferred decision making
  • 36. Recent Floods- Thailand Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 37. Thailand Flood 2011• There were 5 typhoons in 2011 that affected Thailand- – HAIM, NOCK‐ 21-25 June – TEN- 26-31 July – NESAT- 24-30 Sep – HAITANG 25-27 Sep – NALGAE- 27 Sep-05 Oct Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 38. Precipitation Scenariotable 1. Evaluation of Runoff Volume in Ping, Vang, Yom and Nan River Basin from storm during June to August 2011 Average Rainfall - mm Runoff Volume -Mmillion Cubic meterSTORM/DEPRESSION Duration Ping Wang Yom Nan Ping Wang Yom Nan Haima 24 - 26/06/2011 64.5 56.5 90.7 234 890 245 870 3,270 Nokten 30 - 31/07/2011 97.1 117.7 126.2 46.9 1,000 370 900 1,100 Depression 18 - 20/08/2011 37.6 24 45 56.2 260 65 325 590 2,150 680 2,095 4,960 9,885 The rainfall amount since 1 Jan to 31 Oct 2011 was 1822.4 millimeters, about 28 % above normal and only Oct rainfall was 201.8 millimeters, 10 % above normal. Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 39. Rainfall-Runoff30 yrs average at Sukhothai observatory(1971‐2000) Free Powerpoint Templates Source: Daisuke KOMORI, Impact-T
  • 40. Chao Phraya River Basin• There is no reservoir in Yom river, Sirikit Bhumibol and during Aug- Sep Bhumibal and Dam Dam Sirikit Dam can’t release much water• Thus this region frequently experiences floods in Aug-Sep Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 41. Lessons Learned & Recommendations• RIMES 1-15 days forecasts model well captured North Western Pacific storm reaching Thailand. Similar model integrating reservoir component could provide a well decision support system for water management authorities.• Authority should stop seeing floods as ad-hoc disasters in need of short-term relief, but as serious threats to both economic and social development Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 42. Lessons Learned & Recommendations• A decision Support system for Integrated Water Resources Management should be developed providing priority on water supply, Reducing flood damages, hydropower generation, Securing navigation, environment etc. Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 43. Lessons Learned & Recommendations• Water Saving Technology: updates water rule curve• Integrated Reservoir modelling for robust monitoring system Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 44. Flash Flood Forecasts Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 45. Produce reliable and skillful ensembles for awide spectrum of hydrology and waterresources services in Thailand Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 46. Lessons Learned & Recommendations• Floods shouldn’t be look as ad- hoc disasters in need of short- term relief, but as serious threats to both economic and social development• Improved data acquisition from upstream dams regarding flood water release decisions and flood inundation and impacts scenarios (modelling)• Improve coordination of inter- Governmental institutions.• Disaster Diplomacy! Powerpoint Templates Free
  • 47. Lessons Learned & Recommendations• No matter how state-of-the-art they are, engineering solutions do not last forever. They become obsolete as the environment and living conditions change.• Capacity building of communities on newly generated forecasts products, interpretation and response to flood disaster. Free Powerpoint Templates
  • 48. Thank youFree Powerpoint Templates