7 perception decision_web
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7 perception decision_web Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Perception and Decision-Making
  • 2. The Issues Perceptual Process and phenomena Choice making, decision making, & problem solving Optimizing, maximizing, & satisficing Decision models Individual v. group decisions Decision-Making Phenomena Decision-making tools
  • 3. PERCEPTION Process through which a person senses, selects, organizes, and interprets stimuli Sensation Selection Organization Interpretation
  • 4. Person Perception: Making Judgments About Others Attribution theory When individuals observe behavior, they attempt to determine whether it is internally or externally caused Distinctiveness: shows different behaviors in different situations. Distinctiveness: shows different behaviors in different situations. Consensus: response is the same as others to same situation. Consensus: response is the same as others to same situation. Consistency: responds in the same way over time. Consistency: responds in the same way over time.
  • 5. Attribution Process
  • 6. COMMON PERCEPTUAL PHENOMENA Fundamental attribution errors Self serving bias Selective perception Halo effect Contrast effect Stereotypes
  • 7. Errors and Biases in Attributions Fundamental attribution error The tendency to underestimate the influence of external factors and overestimate the influence of internal factors when making judgments about the behavior of others. Self-serving bias The tendency for individuals to attribute their own success to internal factors while putting blame for failures on external factors.
  • 8. Frequently Used Shortcuts in Judging Others Selective perception People selectively interpret what they see on the basis of their interests, background, experience, and attitudes. Stereotyping Judging someone on the basis of one’s perception of the group to which that person belongs.
  • 9. Frequently Used Shortcuts in Judging Others Contrast effect Evaluation of a person’s characteristics that are affected by comparisons with other people recently encountered who rank higher or lower on the same characteristics. Halo effect Drawing a general impression about an individual on the basis of a single characteristic.
  • 10. Choice Making The narrow set of activities associated with choosing one option from among already identified alternatives
  • 11. Decision Making The process of specifying a problem or opportunity, identifying alternatives & criteria, evaluating alternatives, and selecting from among the alternatives Site 1 Pros/Cons Site 2 Pros/Cons
  • 12. Problem Solving Includes decision-making process Implementation of decision Monitoring of impact Revising action Achieving objectives
  • 13. Decision Making, Choice Making, and Problem Solving Decision Making Choice Making Step 1 Recognizing the need for a decision Step 2 Generating alternative solutions Step 3 Evaluating the alternatives Problem Solving Step 4 Choosing an alternative Step 5 Implementing the chosen alternative Step 6 Monitoring and maintaining the solution
  • 14. Decision Standards Optimize Find the best possible decision Maximize Find decision that meets maximum number of criteria Satisfice Find the first satisfactory solution
  • 15. Decision Models The rational/economic person Person is rational and deals with objective facts Person is economically motivated Decisions are driven by objective rationality and a search for the best possible alternative (optimizing) The administrative person (Herbert Simon) Person is limited by restricted cognitive capacity Person is aware of only certain alternatives Person considers only certain criteria Decisions are driven by desire to identify and select the first acceptable alternative (satisficing)
  • 16. Groups vs. Individuals? Advantages Greater knowledge and facts Broader perspectives on issues More alternatives considered Greater satisfaction with and support of decisions Better problem comprehension Disadvantages Less speed Compromise may damage decision quality Premature decisions Negative social pressure Individual domination Interference of personal goals
  • 17. Decision-Making Phenomena Group shift (risky, cautious) Groupthink Escalation of commitment
  • 18. Group Shift The risky shift Group discussion makes decision situation more familiar Diffusion of responsibility Risk persuaders Cultural values and desire for approval from others in the group The cautious shift Far less common than risky shift Group discussion makes decision risks more clear Personal acceptance of responsibility Cautious persuaders Cultural values and desire for approval from others in the group
  • 19. Groupthink A group drive for consensus so strong that dissent is (intentionally and unintentionally) suppressed
  • 20. Escalation of Commitment Adhering to an unsuccessful course of action with increasing commitment of resources
  • 21. Factors That Drive Escalation Motivation to justify previous decisions Norms for consistency Perceived probability of future outcomes Perceived value of future outcomes Retrospective Rationality Modeling Commitment to a Course of Action Prospective Rationality Based on Staw, B.M. (1981). The escalation of commitment to a course of action. Academy of Management Review, 6 (4), p. 582.
  • 22. Other Escalation Considerations What about the following? Involvement in original decision Individual vs. group decision Organization culture differences Recommendation for managers?
  • 23. Some Valuable Tools Brainstorming Nominal Group Technique Delphi Technique
  • 24. Brainstorming Stimulate people to develop alternatives during the planning and decision-making process. Focus on identifying alternatives.
  • 25. Nominal Group Technique (NGT) Generate a large number of creative potential solutions to a problem or opportunity, evaluate these solutions, and rank them from most to least promising 4-stops Generation of ideas in writing Round-robin recording of ideas Serial discussion of ideas Ranking of ideas 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
  • 26. Delphi Technique Gathers and evaluates information from a group without physically assembling its members Steps Develop the Delphi question and the first inquiry Collect first response Analyze first response, provide feedback, and develop second inquiry Collect second response Continue process until a clear solution emerges
  • 27. The Issues Perceptual Process and phenomena Choice making, decision making, & problem solving Optimizing, maximizing, & satisficing Decision models Individual v. group decisions Decision-Making Phenomena Decision-making tools