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    Harry markowitz Harry markowitz Document Transcript

    • Harry MarkowitzFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaJump to: navigation, search Harry Markowitz Chicago School of Economics August 24, 1927 (age 84) Born Chicago, Illinois, USA Nationality United States Harry Markowitz Company Rady School of Management at the University of California at San Diego Institution Baruch College of the City University of New York RAND Corporation
    • Cowles Commission Field Financial economics Alma mater University of Chicago (PhD) Opposed John Burr Williams Milton Friedman Tjalling Koopmans Jacob Marschak Influences Oskar Morgenstern Leonard Savage John von Neumann Modern Portfolio Theory Efficient/ Markowitz Frontier Contributions Sparse Matrix Methods SIMSCRIPT John von Neumann Theory Prize (1989) The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Awards Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (1990) Information at IDEAS/RePEcHarry Max Markowitz (born August 24, 1927) is an American economist and a recipient of theJohn von Neumann Theory Prize and the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.Markowitz is a professor of finance at the Rady School of Management at the University ofCalifornia, San Diego (UCSD). He is best known for his pioneering work in Modern PortfolioTheory, studying the effects of asset risk, return, correlation and diversification on probableinvestment portfolio returns.
    • Contents[hide] 1 Autobiography 2 Biography 3 Research 4 Harry Markowitz Model o 4.1 Introduction o 4.2 Determining the Efficient Set o 4.3 Choosing the best Portfolio o 4.4 Demerits of the HM Model 5 Further Reading 6 Selected publications 7 See also 8 References 9 External links[edit] Autobiography"Autobiography of Harry M. Marchoviz, The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences inMemory of Alfred Nobel 1990" can be viewed on the official website of The NobelFoundation.[1][edit] BiographyHarry Markowitz was born on August 24, 1927 in Chicago, to his Jewish parents Morris andMildred Markowitz.[1] During high school, Markowitz developed an interest in physics andphilosophy, in particular the ideas of David Hume, an interest he continued to follow during hisundergraduate years at the University of Chicago. After receiving his B.A., Markowitz decidedto continue his studies at the University of Chicago, choosing to specialize in economics. Therehe had the opportunity to study under important economists, including Milton Friedman, TjallingKoopmans, Jacob Marschak and Leonard Savage. While still a student, he was invited to becomea member of the Cowles Commission for Research in Economics, which was in Chicago at thetime.Markowitz chose to apply mathematics to the analysis of the stock market as the topic for hisdissertation. Jacob Marschak, who was the thesis advisor, encouraged him to pursue the topic,noting that it had also been a favorite interest of Alfred Cowles, the founder of the CowlesCommission. While researching the then current understanding of stock prices, which at the timeconsisted in the present value model of John Burr Williams, Markowitz realized that the theorylacks an analysis of the impact of risk. This insight led to the development of his seminal theoryof portfolio allocation under uncertainty, published in 1952 by the Journal of Finance.[2]
    • In 1952, Harry Markowitz went to work for the RAND Corporation, where he met GeorgeDantzig. With Dantzigs help, Markowitz continued to research optimization techniques, furtherdeveloping the critical line algorithm for the identification of the optimal mean-varianceportfolios, relying on what was later named the Markowitz frontier. In 1955, he received a PhDfrom the University of Chicago with a thesis on the portfolio theory. The topic was so novel that,while Markowitz was defending his dissertation, Milton Friedman argued his contribution wasnot economics.[3] During 1955–1956 Markowitz spent a year at the Cowles Foundation,[1] whichhad moved to Yale University, at the invitation of James Tobin. He published the critical linealgorithm in a 1956 paper and used this time at the foundation to write a book on portfolioallocation which was published in 1959.[4]Markowitz won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1990 while a professor offinance at Baruch College of the City University of New York. In the preceding year, he receivedthe John von Neumann Theory Prize from the Operations Research Society of America (nowInstitute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, INFORMS) for hiscontributions in the theory of three fields: portfolio theory; sparse matrix methods; andsimulation language programming (SIMSCRIPT). Sparse matrix methods are now widely usedto solve very large systems of simultaneous equations whose coefficients are mostly zero.SIMSCRIPT has been widely used to program computer simulations of manufacturing,transportation, and computer systems as well as war games. SIMSCRIPT (I) included the Buddymemory allocation method, which was also developed by Markowitz.The company that would become CACI International was founded by Herb Karr and HarryMarkowitz on July 17, 1962 as California Analysis Center, Inc. They helped developSIMSCRIPT, the first simulation programming language, at RAND and after it was released tothe public domain, CACI was founded to provide support and training for SIMSCRIPT.In 1968, Markowitz joined Arbitrage Management company founded by Michael Goodkin.Working with Paul Samuelson and Robert Merton he created a hedge fund that represents thefirst known attempt at computerized arbitrage trading. He took over as chief executive in 1970.After a successful run as a private hedge fund, AMC was sold to Stuart & Co. in 1971. A yearlater, Markowitz left the company.[5]Markowitz now divides his time between teaching (he is an adjunct professor at the Rady Schoolof Management at the University of California at San Diego, UCSD); video casting lectures; andconsulting (out of his Harry Markowitz Company offices). He currently serves on the AdvisoryBoard of SkyView Investment Advisors, an alternative investment advisory firm and fund ofhedge funds. Markowitz also serves on the Investment Committee of LWI Financial Inc.("Loring Ward"), a San Jose, California-based investment advisor; on the advisory panel ofRobert D. Arnotts Newport Beach, California based investment management firm, ResearchAffiliates; on the Advisory Board of Mark Hebners Irvine, California and internet basedinvestment advisory firm, Index Funds Advisors; and as an advisor to the Investment Committeeof 1st Global, a Dallas, Texas-based wealth management and investment advisory firm.Dr. Markowitz is co-founder and Chief Architect of GuidedChoice, a 401(k) managed accountsprovider and investment advisor. Dr. Markowitz’s more recent work has included designing the
    • backbone software analytics for the GuidedChoice investment solution and heading theGuidedChoice Investment Committee. He is actively involved in designing the next step in theretirement process: assisting retirees with wealth distribution through GuidedSpending.[edit] ResearchA Markowitz Efficient Portfolio is one where no added diversification can lower the portfoliosrisk for a given return expectation (alternately, no additional expected return can be gainedwithout increasing the risk of the portfolio). The Markowitz Efficient Frontier is the set of allportfolios that will give the highest expected return for each given level of risk. These conceptsof efficiency were essential to the development of the Capital Asset Pricing Model.Markowitz also co-edited the textbook The Theory and Practice of Investment Management withFrank J. Fabozzi of Yale School of Management.[edit] Harry Markowitz Model[edit] IntroductionHarry Markowitz put forward this model in 1952. It assists in the selection of the most efficientby analyzing various possible portfolios of the given securities. By choosing securities that donot move exactly together, the HM model shows investors how to reduce their risk. The HMmodel is also called Mean-Variance Model due to the fact that it is based on expected returns(mean) and the standard deviation (variance) of the various portfolios. Harry Markowitz madethe following assumption while developing the HM model, which were :[6] [7]1. Risk of a portfolio is based on the variability of returns from the said portfolio.2. An investor is risk averse.3. An investor prefers to increase consumption.4. The investors utility function is concave and increasing, due to his risk aversion andconsumption preference.[7]5. Analysis is based on single period model of investment.[7]6. An investor either maximizes his portfolio return for a given level of risk or maximum returnfor minimum risk. [8]7. An investor is rational in nature.[7]To choose the best portfolio from a number of possible portfolios, each with different return andrisk, two separate decisions are to be made :
    • 1. Determination a set of efficient portfolios.2. Selection of best portfolio out of the efficient set.[edit] Determining the Efficient SetA portfolio that gives maximum return for a given risk, or minimum risk for given return is anefficient portfolio. Thus, portfolios are selected as follows:(a) From the portfolios that have the same return, the investor will prefer the portfolio with lowerrisk, and [6](b) From the portfolios that have the same risk level, an investor will prefer the portfolio withhigher rate of return.Figure 1: Risk-Return of Possible PortfoliosAs the investor is rational, they would like to have higher return. And as he is risk averse, hewants to have lower risk.[6] In Figure 1, the shaded area PVWP includes all the possiblesecurities an investor can invest in. The efficient portfolios are the ones that lie on the boundaryof PQVW. For example, at risk level x2, there are three portfolios S, T, U. But portfolio S iscalled the efficient portfolio as it has the highest return, y2, compared to T and U. All theportfolios that lie on the boundary of PQVW are efficient portfolios for a given risk level.The boundary PQVW is called the Efficient Frontier. All portfolios that lie below the EfficientFrontier are not good enough because the return would be lower for the given risk. Portfolios thatlie to the right of the Efficient Frontier would not be good enough, as there is higher risk for agiven rate of return. All portfolios lying on the boundary of PQVW are called Efficient
    • Portfolios. The Efficient Frontier is the same for all investors, as all investors want maximumreturn with the lowest possible risk and they are risk averse ()()[edit] Choosing the best PortfolioFor selection of the optimal portfolio or the best portfolio, the risk-return preferences areanalyzed. An investor who is highly risk averse will hold a portfolio on the lower left hand of thefrontier, and an investor who isn’t too risk averse will choose a portfolio on the upper portion ofthe frontier.Figure 2: Risk-Return Indifference CurvesFigure 2 shows the risk-return indifference curve for the investors. Indifference curves C1, C2and C3 are shown. Each of the different points on a particular indifference curve shows adifferent combination of risk and return, which provide the same satisfaction to the investors.Each curve to the left represents higher utility or satisfaction. The goal of the investor would beto maximize his satisfaction by moving to a curve that is higher. An investor might havesatisfaction represented by C2, but if his satisfaction/utility increases, he/she then moves to curveC3 Thus, at any point of time, an investor will be indifferent between combinations S1 and S2, orS5 and S6.
    • Figure 3: The Efficient PortfolioThe investors optimal portfolio is found at the point of tangency of the efficient frontier with theindifference curve. This point marks the highest level of satisfaction the investor can obtain. Thisis shown in Figure 3. R is the point where the efficient frontier is tangent to indifference curveC3, and is also an efficient portfolio. With this portfolio, the investor will get highest satisfactionas well as best risk-return combination. Any other portfolio, say X, isnt the optimal portfolioeven though it lies on the same indifference curve as it is outside the efficient frontier. PortfolioY is also not optimal as it does not lie on the indifference curve, even though it lies in theportfolio region. Another investor having other sets of indifference curves might have somedifferent portfolio as his best/optimal portfolio.All portfolios so far have been evaluated in terms of risky securities only, and it is possible toinclued risk-free securities in a portfolio as well. A portfolio with risk-free securities will enablean investor to achieve a higher level of satisfaction. This has been explained in Figure 4.
    • Figure 4: The Combination of Risk-Free Securities with the Efficient Frontier and CMLR1 is the risk-free return, or the return from government securities, as government securities haveno risk. R1PX is drawn so that it is tangent to the efficient frontier. Any point on the line R1PXshows a combination of different proportions of risk-free securities and efficient portfolios. Thesatisfaction an investor obtains from portfolios on the line R1PX is more than the satisfactionobtained from the portfolio P. All portfolio combinations to the left of P show combinations ofrisky and risk-free assets, and all those to the right of P represent purchases of risky assets madewith funds borrowed at the risk-free rate.In the case that an investor has invested all his funds, additional funds can be borrowed at risk-free rate and a portfolio combination that lies on R1PX can be obtained. R1PX is known as theCapital Market Line (CML). this line represents the risk-return trade off in the capital market.The CML is an upward sloping curve, which means that the investor will take higher risk if thereturn of the portfolio is also higher. The portfolio P is the most efficient portfolio, as it lies onboth the CML and Efficient Frontier, and every investor would prefer to attain this portfolio, P.The P portfolio is known as the Market Portfolio and is also the most diversified portfolio. Itconsists of all shares and other securities in the capital market.In the market for portfolios that consists of risky and risk-free securities, the CML represents theequilibrium condition. The Capital Market Line says that the return from a portfolio is the risk-free rate plus risk premium. Risk premium is the product of the market price of risk and thequantity of risk, and the risk is the standard deviation of the portfolio.The CML equation is :RP = IRF + (RM - IRF)σP/σMWhere,
    • RP = Expected Return of PortfolioRM = Return on the Market PortfolioIRF = Risk-Free rate of interestσM = Standard Deviation of the market portfolioσP = Standard Deviation of portfolio(RM - IRF)/σM is the slope of CML. (RM - IRF) is a measure of the risk premium, or the reward forholding risky portfolio instead of risk-free portfolio. σM is the risk of the market portfolio.Therefore, the slope measures the reward per unit of market risk.The characteristic features of CML are:1. At the tangent point, i.e. Portfolio P, is the optimum combination of risky investments and themarket portfolio.2. Only efficient portfolios that consist of risk free investments and the market portfolio P lie onthe CML.3. CML is always upward sloping as the price of risk has to be positive. A rational investor willnot invest unless he knows he will be compensated for that risk.Figure 5: CML and Risk-Free Lending and BorrowingFigure 5 shows that an investor will choose a portfolio on the efficient frontier, in the absence ofrisk-free investments. But when risk-free investments are introduced, the investor can can choose
    • the portfolio on the CML (which represents the combination of risky and risk-free investments).This can be done with borrowing or lending at the risk-free rate of interest (IRF) and the purchaseof efficient portfolio P. The portfolio an investor will choose depends on his preference of risk.The portion from IRF to P, is investment in risk-free assets and is called Lending Portfolio. Inthis portion, the investor will lend a portion at risk-free rate. The portion beyond P is calledBorrowing Portfolio, where the investor borrows some funds at risk-free rate to buy more ofportfolio P.[edit] Demerits of the HM Model1. It requires lots of data to be included. An investor must obtain variances of return, covarianceof returns and estimates of return for all the securities in a portfolio.2. There are numerous calculations involved that are complicated because from a given set ofsecurities, a very large number of portfolio combinations can be made.3. The expected return and variance will also have to computed for each securities. [9][edit] Further Readinghttp://people.orie.cornell.edu/~leventhal/Markowitz.pdfhttp://people.maths.ox.ac.uk/~zhouxy/download/mvjump_part2.pdfhttp://home.dacor.net/norton/finance-math/problems_w_Markowitz.pdf[edit] Selected publications Markowitz, H.M. (March 1952). "Portfolio Selection". The Journal of Finance 7 (1): 77– 91. DOI:10.2307/2975974. JSTOR 2975974. Markowitz, H.M. (April 1952). "The Utility of Wealth". The Journal of Political Economy (Cowles Foundation Paper 57) LX (2): 151–158. DOI:10.1086/257177. http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cp/p00b/p0057.pdf. Markowitz, H.M. (April 1957). "The Elimination Form of the Inverse and Its Application to Linear Programming". Management Science 3 (3): 255–269. DOI:10.1287/mnsc.3.3.255. Markowitz, H.M. (1959). Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments. New York: John Wiley & Sons. http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cm/m16/index.htm. (reprinted by Yale University Press, 1970, ISBN 978-0-300-01372-6; 2nd ed. Basil Blackwell, 1991, ISBN 978-1-55786-108-5) Markowitz, H.M. (October 1, 1979). Belzer, Jack; Holzman, Albert G.; Kent, Allen. eds. "SIMSCRIPT", Encyclopedia of Computer Science and Technology. 13. New York and Basel: Marcel Dekker. pp. 516. ISBN 978-0-8247-2263-0.
    • Markowitz, H.M. and E. van Dijk (March/April 2003). "Single-Period Mean-Variance Analysis in a Changing World". Financial Analysts Journal 59 (2): 30–44. DOI:10.2469/faj.v59.n2.2512. Markowitz, H.M. (September/October 2005). "Market Efficiency: A Theoretical Distinction and So What?". Financial Analysts Journal 61 (5): 17–30. DOI:10.2469/faj.v61.n5.2752. http://www.researchaffiliates.com/ideas/pdf/marketEfficiency.pdf. Markowitz, H.M. (2009). Harry Markowitz: Selected Works. World Scientific-Nobel Laureate Series: Vol. 1. Hackensack, New Jersey: World Scientific. pp. 716. ISBN 978- 981-283-364-8. http://www.worldscibooks.com/economics/6967.html.[edit] See also List of economists List of Jewish Nobel laureates Modern Portfolio Theory Capital asset pricing model Risk management tools Risk[edit] References 1. ^ a b c Harry M. Markowitz – Autobiography, The Nobel Prizes 1990, Editor Tore Frängsmyr, [Nobel Foundation], Stockholm, 1991 2. ^ Markowitz, H.M. (March 1952). "Portfolio Selection". The Journal of Finance 7 (1): 77–91. DOI:10.2307/2975974. JSTOR 2975974. 3. ^ Harry M. Markowitz – Nobel Prize Lecture: Foundations of Portfolio Theory, December 7, 1990 ( PDF format) 4. ^ Markowitz, H.M. (1959). Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments. New York: John Wiley & Sons. http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cm/m16/index.htm. (reprinted by Yale University Press, 1970, ISBN 978-0-300-01372-6; 2nd ed. Basil Blackwell, 1991, ISBN 978-1-55786-108-5) 5. ^ Goodkin, Michael. The Wrong Answer Faster: The Inside Story of Making the Machine that Trades Trillions. John Wiley & Sons, 2012 6. ^ a b c Rustagi, R.P.. Financial Management. India: Taxmann Publications (P.) Ltd.. ISBN 978-81-7194- 786-7. 7. ^ a b c d "Markowitz Model". http://corporate.morningstar.com/cf/documents/MethodologyDocuments/IBBAssociates/MarkowitzApproa ch.pdf. 8. ^ "Markowitz". http://dybfin.wustl.edu/teaching/inv/slides/invl3.html. 9. ^ "limitations". http://knowledgebase.abcquant.com/index.php?option=com_kb&task=article&article=59.[edit] External links An Hour with Harry Markowitz: Interviewed by Mark Hebner The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, 1990 o Autobiography, The Nobel Prizes 1990, Editor Tore Frängsmyr, [Nobel Foundation], Stockholm, 1991 o Banquet Speech, December 10, 1990
    • o Nobel Prize Lecture: Foundations of Portfolio Theory, December 7, 1990 ( PDF format)Oral history interview with Harry M. Markowitz, Charles Babbage Institute, Universityof Minnesota – Markowitz discusses his development of portfolio theory, sparsematrices, and his work at the RAND Corporation and elsewhere on simulation softwaredevelopment (including computer language SIMSCRIPT), modeling, and operationsresearch.History of Finance, interviews, The American Finance AssociationAdjunct Professor of Finance, bio, Rady School of Management, University of Californiaat San Diego1st Global Engages Dr. Harry M. Markowitz, 1st Global [show] v t e Chicago school of economics [show] v t e Nobel Memorial Laureates in Economics (1976–2000)
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