Fertility in India - Government Society and Business

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This is a presentation which was prepared and presented by my study group as a part of course in our Core MBA curriculum.
It related with the fertility in India. Describes various measures of fertility - ASFR, TFR, Replacement level fertility and more. Also shows the trends in fertility from 1992 to 2005 across 3 NFHS.
Also helps to understand the effect of population on economic growth, environment and human development by using some data regression.

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Fertility in India - Government Society and Business

  1. 1. Indian School of Business Group F13 Kyungmin Park Rahul Gupta Shikhar Angra Sriram Govindrajan Yasharth Mishra
  2. 2. • Key Terms– TFR, ASFR, CEB, CBR, etc. • Statistics as per NFHS 3. • Fertility trends in India from 1991-92 to 2005-06. • Variations in fertility parameters across states and urban-rural differentials. • Factors affecting fertility rates. • World view - association between population and economic growth, poverty, environment, human development.
  3. 3. • divide the number of births to women in that age group during the period 1-36 months preceding the survey by the number of woman years lived by women in that age group during the same three-year time period. Age Specific Fertility Rates (ASFR) • Average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through her lifetime, and she were to survive from birth through the end of her reproductive life. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) • The replacement rate is the number of children each woman needs to have to maintain current population levels or what is known as zero population growth. Replacement Level Fertility Rate • the annual number of births per 1,000 populationCrude Birth Rate (CBR) • the number of children a woman has ever borneChild Ever Born (CEB) • percentage of currently married women age 15-49 years who are currently using a contraceptive method or whose husbands are using a contraceptive method Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR)
  4. 4. Objective of National Population Policy, 2000: • “to address the unmet needs for contraception, health care infrastructure, and health personnel, and to provide integrated service delivery for basic reproductive and child health care. The medium-term objective is to bring the TFR to replacement levels by 2010” • Achieve population stabilization by 2045 i.e. population to stabilize into a stationary population, with no year-to-year changes in age-specific rates or in total population. Age Urban Rural Total 15-19 0.057 0.105 0.09 20-24 0.166 0.231 0.209 25-39 0.184 0.246 0.226 40-49 0.005 0.013 0.01 Urban Rural Total TFR 15-49 2.06 2.98 2.68 Urban Rural Total CBR 18.8 25 23.1 Mean No. of CEB Mean No. of living children Age -- -- 15-19 0.15 0.14 20-24 1.15 1.06 25-39 2.95 2.65 40-49 4 3.41
  5. 5. Source: http://www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2012/world-population-data-sheet/world-map.aspx#/map/births
  6. 6. 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total NFHS3 NFHS2 NFHS1 2.06 2.98 2.68 2.27 3.06 2.84 2.68 3.64 3.36 TFR Trends in TFR NFHS3 – 2003-05, NFHS2 – 1996-98, NFHS1 – 1990-92.
  7. 7. 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 15-19 20-24 25-39 40-49 Trends in Total ASFR NFHS3 NFHS2 NFHS1 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 15-19 20-24 25-39 40-49 ASFR Trends - Urban and Rural NFHS3-Urban NFHS3-Rural NFHS2-Urban NFHS2-Rural NFHS1-Urban NFHS1-Rural
  8. 8. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total NFHS3 NFHS2 NFHS1 18.8 25 23.1 20.9 26.2 24.8 24.1 30.4 28.7 CBR Trends in CBR NFHS3 – 2003-05, NFHS2 – 1996-98, NFHS1 – 1990-92.
  9. 9. Kerala Tamil Nadu India Urban Rural Uttar Pradesh Bihar TFR 1.93 1.8 2.06 2.98 3.82 4.0 CBR 16.4 16.4 18.8 25 29.1 32.4 Median number of months since preceding birth 41.2 31.4 31.1 29.8 29.9 %of women age 15-19 who have had a live birth or who are pregnant with their first child 5.8 7.7 16.0 14.3 25.0 Wanted Fertility Rate Actual Fertility Rate 1.8/1.9 1.4/1.8 1.9/2.7 2.3/3.8 2.4/4.0 Percentage who want more sons than Daughters (Women/Men) 11/11.8 5.7/7.9 22.4/20.0 33.5/27.8 39.2/38.5
  10. 10. Five key proximate determinants Marriage Sexual Intercourse Postpartum Amenorrhea Postpartum Abstinence Menopause Contraceptive Use
  11. 11. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Never married Currently Married Married gauna not performed Widowed Divorced Separated %age Married 0 5 10 15 20 25 Median Age at First Marriage 0 5 10 15 20 25 Median Age at first sexual intercourse
  12. 12. 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 Knowledge of at least one contraceptive method 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 % Ever use of contraception CURRENTLY MARRIED WOMEN - TOTAL UNMARRIED WOMEN WHO EVER HAD SEX - TOTAL 0.00 500.00 1,000.00 1,500.00 2,000.00 2,500.00 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 FemaleSterilization FemalePill FemaleIUD FemaleInjectables Female Condom/Nirodh MaleSterilization MaleCondom/Nirodh Cost of Modern Methods Percentage free Percentage who donot know cost Median cost ($)
  13. 13. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Not having sex/infrequent sex Menopausal/had hysterectomy Subfecund/infecund Fatalistic Wants as many children as possible Respondent opposed Husband opposed Others opposed Religious prohibition Knows no method Knows no source Health concerns Fear of side effects Lack of access/too far Costs too much Inconvenient to use Interferes with body’s normal processes Other Don’t know Missing % Reason for not intending to use contraceptive in future
  14. 14. 68.2, 3.9 Bihar 54.9, 3.9 Uttar Pradesh 24.5, 1.5 A & N 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 TFR Percentage of women between age 20-24 married before the age of 18(by state) TFR v/s Early marriage4 3.6 Bihar 1.7 T.N. 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 TFR Literacy rate (in %) TFR v/s Literacy Rate (2011)5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 TFR Any method of contraceptive use (%) TFR v/s Use of contraceptives
  15. 15. R² = 0.003 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 0.5 1 1.5 Billions Poverty head count ratio below $1.5 R² = 0.476 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 0.5 1 1.5 Billions CO2 emissions (million tones) R² = 0.013 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0.5 1 1.5 Billions HDI R² = 0.127 0 4 8 12 16 0 0.5 1 1.5 Billions GDP, PPP (current international tn $) • Top 10 populous countries in decreasing order: •China •India •United States •Indonesia •Brazil •Pakistan •Nigeria •Bangladesh •Russian Federation •Japan •Little or no correlation exists between population with poverty head count ratio, and HDI •Strong correlations between population with GDP (PPP adjusted) and CO2 emissions • Population and per capita income are the major contributors of CO2 emissions (but vary across time and region)– research paper by R. Shanthini •Source: World Bank databases6
  16. 16. • Here are the statistics are per the SRS Statistical Report 2011 3 – TFR: 2.4, Urban: 1.9, Rural: 2.7 – CBR: 21.8, Urban: 17.6, Rural: 23.3 – Proportion of females getting married before legal age of marriage: 3.7% – Sex Ratio: 906, Urban: 900, Rural: 907
  17. 17. • NPP, 2000 stated that if its strategies are followed then India’s population could be capped at 1.1 billion in 2010. • In reality India’s population in 2010 was 1.15 billion and approximately 1.24 billion today. • Union Health and Family Welfare Ministry has pushed back the target date for achieving population stabilization to 2070 from 2045. Projected population in 2070 - 170 crore1
  18. 18. • Should government rethink its population control policy? • At the time when most of the developed world and even developing world countries such as China and Korea are starting to age should India really try and drastically control its population growth? • What is the real problem - population or the underlying factors? • Demographic dividend – All hype or is there some substance in it?
  19. 19. 1. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/population-stabilisation-target-date-pushed-back-to- 2070/article843432.ece 2. All statistics sourced from - http://www.measuredhs.com/pubs/pdf/FRIND3/00FrontMatter00.pdf 3. http://www.censusindia.gov.in/vital_statistics/SRS_Reports.html 4. http://www.unicef.org/india/Child_Marriage_Fact_Sheet_Nov2011_final.pdf 5. http://censusindia.gov.in/2011-Common/srs.html 6. World Bank databases - http://datacatalog.worldbank.org/
  20. 20. • In the 1950s, TFR exceeded six children per woman. • In 1962, South Korea began its national family planning campaign to reduce women's unwanted births through a program of information and the provision of family planning supplies and services. • The program was seen as essential if the goals of economic growth and modernization were to be achieved. -> The public responded well to the idea of a “small and prosperous family.” • By 1970, the TFR had fallen to 4.5
  21. 21. • A 1974 poster (see figure's top image) exhorted, “Sons or daughters, let's have two children and raise them well.” • In 1981, the government, buoyed by its success up to that point, set a target of a two-child, "replacement" level fertility by 1988 with a program of economic incentives. • There was even some mention of a one- child family: "Even two children per family are too many for our crowded country" (see bottom image). • The TFR was down to 1.74 by 1984.

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