Global Food Security Challenges and opportunities:The New Role of Agriculture<br />Shenggen FanDirector General<br />Inter...
Key messages<br />Global food security challenges remain large and complex<br />A comprehensive strategy is needed to addr...
Global food security challenges remain large and complex<br />
Challenges to global food security include<br />Food price volatility<br />Energy/Biofuels<br />Population growth and demo...
Global food price hikes and volatility<br />Global hikes since June 2010<br />Maize: 100%<br />Wheat: 98%<br />Source: Dat...
Domestic prices are also rising rapidly<br />Retail prices in China, national average<br />Wholesale prices in Ethiopia, A...
High and volatile food prices affect food security, but outcomes vary<br />Self-reported food insecurity in select countri...
Stronger link between oil and food prices influence food security<br />Rising oil prices make biofuels more profitable, an...
Rapidly growing population and demographic change<br />World population reaches 9 billion by 2050<br />All growth to come ...
Climate change will affect average crop yields<br />NCAR A2a<br />Source:  Nelson et al. 2009.<br />
Conflicts affect food security and development<br />Incidence ratio of undernourishment, poverty and other ills for fragil...
A comprehensive strategy is needed to address challenges, harness opportunities, and protect poor people<br />
Actions needed to reduce food price volatility and protect the poor<br />
Invest in productive social safety nets<br />Bangladesh Vulnerable Group Development program<br />Increased per capita foo...
Establish global and regional strategic grain reserves <br />Global emergency reserve:<br />created with grain donations f...
Support transparent, fair, and open global trade<br />Eliminate harmful trade restrictions and prevent new ones to:<br />i...
US$353 billion loss in world welfare</li></ul>Quick completion of the Doha Round is crucial<br />
Promote smallholder productivity<br />Invest in agricultural R&D and infrastructure<br />Agricultural research and new tec...
The new role of agriculture, especially small-scale farming, must be leveraged<br />
Agric-led growth is still important for poverty reduction…<br />Poverty-growth elasticities <br />Source: Diao et al. 2010...
…agric-led growth is still important for hunger reduction<br />Poverty-growth and calorie-growth elasticities, Tanzania (2...
…but a new role of agriculture is emerging<br />Smallholder agriculture can, especially, be leveraged for: <br /><ul><li>i...
promoting climate change adaptation and mitigation
building conflict resilience
narrowing gender gaps</li></li></ul><li>Improving nutrition and health <br />Improved productivity and competitiveness of ...
improved nutritional content of main staple foods
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Global Food Security Challenges and Opportunities: the new role of agriculture

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Global Food Security Challenges and Opportunities, USAID Agriculture Course, Washington DC, June 6, 2011

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  • In Asia, self-reported food insecurity declined sharply in 2007/08, especially in China and India and more modestly in Indonesia before rising again in 2009. This is consistent with the fact that food inflation was modest in all three countries whilst economic growth was rapid. Self-reported food insecurity is estimated from the World Gallup Poll on whether a household has experienced difficulties affording food over the previous 12 months. The Gallup Poll was conducted over the period 2005-2010 and it covered almost 90 percent of the developing world population. While such data may not be ideal, it offers a useful barometer for gauging the welfare impacts of the global food crisis.
  • The Bangladesh study examined two components of the Vulnerable Group Development (VGD) program: (1) Income-Generating VGD (IGVGD) and (2) Food Security VGD (FSVGD). Both target poor women. IGVGD has a built-in mechanism to provide credit and training on income-generating activities in agriculture; The FSVGD program provides a combination of food and cash to program participants.
  • Global Food Security Challenges and Opportunities: the new role of agriculture

    1. 1. Global Food Security Challenges and opportunities:The New Role of Agriculture<br />Shenggen FanDirector General<br />International Food Policy Research Institute<br />USAID Agriculture Core Course, Washington, DC, June 6, 2011 <br />
    2. 2. Key messages<br />Global food security challenges remain large and complex<br />A comprehensive strategy is needed to address challenges, harness opportunities, and protect poor people<br />The new role of agriculture, especially small-scale farming, must be leveraged for achieving broad development outcomes<br />
    3. 3. Global food security challenges remain large and complex<br />
    4. 4. Challenges to global food security include<br />Food price volatility<br />Energy/Biofuels<br />Population growth and demographic changes<br />Land and water constraints<br />Climate change<br />Conflicts<br />
    5. 5. Global food price hikes and volatility<br />Global hikes since June 2010<br />Maize: 100%<br />Wheat: 98%<br />Source: Data from FAO 2011<br />
    6. 6. Domestic prices are also rising rapidly<br />Retail prices in China, national average<br />Wholesale prices in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa <br />Retail prices in Vietnam, Dong Thap<br />Retail prices in Indonesia, national average<br />Source: Data from FAO 2011<br />
    7. 7. High and volatile food prices affect food security, but outcomes vary<br />Self-reported food insecurity in select countries<br />Source: Headey 2011<br />
    8. 8. Stronger link between oil and food prices influence food security<br />Rising oil prices make biofuels more profitable, and agricultural production more expensive <br />Correlation between oil and food prices have increased overtime (correlation coefficient 0.93 since 2000) <br />Source: Data from IMF 2011<br />Note: Oil = Average crude oil price of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate <br />
    9. 9. Rapidly growing population and demographic change<br />World population reaches 9 billion by 2050<br />All growth to come from urban areas<br />Most growth to come from developing countries<br />Source: FAO 2009<br />Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food<br />
    10. 10. Climate change will affect average crop yields<br />NCAR A2a<br />Source: Nelson et al. 2009.<br />
    11. 11. Conflicts affect food security and development<br />Incidence ratio of undernourishment, poverty and other ills for fragile, recovering, and non-fragile developing countries<br />Source: World Bank 2011<br />
    12. 12. A comprehensive strategy is needed to address challenges, harness opportunities, and protect poor people<br />
    13. 13. Actions needed to reduce food price volatility and protect the poor<br />
    14. 14. Invest in productive social safety nets<br />Bangladesh Vulnerable Group Development program<br />Increased per capita food consumption by 45-66 kcal per taka transfer (Ahmed et al. 2009)<br />Ethiopia Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP)<br /> With access to both safety nets and agric. support, beneficiaries are more food secure and productive (Gilligan, Hoddinott, and Taffesse 2009)<br />Nigeria Fadama II Development Project<br />Increased the value of individual productive assets by about 50% (Nkonya et al. 2008)<br />
    15. 15. Establish global and regional strategic grain reserves <br />Global emergency reserve:<br />created with grain donations from large food exporters and producers, e.g. US, France, China, India <br />located also in poor food importing countries, e.g. Horn of Africa<br />owned and managed by an institution such as WFP <br />Some regional initiatives are emerging e.g. Asean+3 Emergency Rice Reserve, Sahel and West Africa Regional Food Stocks (RESOGEST) etc.<br />Properly managed reserves can address food crises, but operating costs must be low and challenges must be overcome <br />
    16. 16. Support transparent, fair, and open global trade<br />Eliminate harmful trade restrictions and prevent new ones to:<br />increase market efficiency<br />reduce price fluctuations<br />Potential costs of a failed Doha Round could be high (Bouet and Laborde 2009):<br /><ul><li>11.5% loss of developing country exports
    17. 17. US$353 billion loss in world welfare</li></ul>Quick completion of the Doha Round is crucial<br />
    18. 18. Promote smallholder productivity<br />Invest in agricultural R&D and infrastructure<br />Agricultural research and new technologies tailored to smallholders<br />Access to high-quality seeds and fertilizer<br />Rural infrastructure (electricity and feeder roads in particular)<br />Promote innovations for smallholders <br />Financial services e.g. community banking <br />Risk-management mechanisms e.g. weather-based index insurance <br />Institutional arrangements e.g. producer cooperatives<br />
    19. 19. The new role of agriculture, especially small-scale farming, must be leveraged<br />
    20. 20. Agric-led growth is still important for poverty reduction…<br />Poverty-growth elasticities <br />Source: Diao et al. 2010<br />
    21. 21. …agric-led growth is still important for hunger reduction<br />Poverty-growth and calorie-growth elasticities, Tanzania (2000-07) <br />Source: Pauw and Thurlow 2010<br />
    22. 22. …but a new role of agriculture is emerging<br />Smallholder agriculture can, especially, be leveraged for: <br /><ul><li>improving nutrition and health
    23. 23. promoting climate change adaptation and mitigation
    24. 24. building conflict resilience
    25. 25. narrowing gender gaps</li></li></ul><li>Improving nutrition and health <br />Improved productivity and competitiveness of small farmers can lead to:<br /><ul><li>more nutritious, less expensive food, and increased incomes
    26. 26. improved nutritional content of main staple foods
    27. 27. production of more diverse foods of higher nutritional content
    28. 28. improved agricultural practices to decrease the risks of agriculture-associated diseases</li></li></ul><li>Promoting climate change adaptation and mitigation<br />By 2030 the cost of adaptation has been projected to be US$40 - 170 billion (UNFCC, 2007)<br />Adaptation-driven actions can have positive mitigation consequences -> residue returned to fields to improve water-holding capacity also sequester carbon<br />Mitigation potential in agriculture is estimated to be worth US$32 - 420 billion* (IFPRI, 2009)<br />Mitigation-driven actions in agriculture can have positive adaptation consequences -> carbon sequestration projects with positive drought preparedness aspects<br />* at carbon prices between US$20 and US$100 (t CO2-eq.-1)<br />
    29. 29. Building conflict resilience<br />Agriculture, especially small-scale farming, is the largest source of jobs in many conflict-prone countries (World Bank, 2011)<br />Agriculture has the potential to reduce the main causes of conflict e.g.poverty, underemployment, and inequalities in natural resources (Collier et al. 2003)<br />Agriculture can help to re-establish livelihoods and build resilience in conflict-prone countries (World Bank, 2011)<br />
    30. 30. Narrowing gender gaps<br />Women make up a majority of small farmers <br />Lower productivity persists in female-owned plots and female-headed households (Peterman et al. 2010)<br />If women had the same access to productive resources as men (FAO 2011)<br /> -> total agricultural output could increase by 2.5 to 4% <br /> -> global number of undernourished people could reduce by 12 to 17%<br />
    31. 31. Investments and policies must leverage the new role of smallholder agriculture for development<br />

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