Why Agriculture Has Grown Differently?
   Lessons from Asia and Latin America


        Shenggen Fan, Ashok Gulati and Joa...
Outline

 Growth performance and impact on poverty &
  inequality
 Growth strategies (economic and agricultural)
 Key c...
Overall Growth higher than Ag Growth

              Overall GDP                                            Agricultural GD...
GDP per capita, PPP
(constant 2005 international $)




                      Source: World Bank 2009.
Agriculture, value added (% of GDP)
  35                                       East Asia & Pacific

  30                  ...
% Share of trade in total GDP




                Source: World Bank 2009.
Poverty: % share of people living below
$1.25 a day
  80
                                                   East Asia & Pa...
Inequality Trends
~Gini coefficients
      LAC                 Year       Gini    Asia          Year    Gini
      Argenti...
Economic Development Pathways
 EAP & South Asia
  • Explaining an “Asian model” is complicated
  • For “Asian-Tigers” it ...
Economic Development Pathways
• China – “firing from the bottom”
• India – “trickle down from the top”




               ...
Economic Development Pathways
 LAC
  • Starting in 1960s, industrialization thru government intervention
    & barriers t...
Agricultural Development Pathways

 EAP & South Asia
  Ag in Asia is unimodal: dominated by smallholders, role of ag in
 ...
Agricultural Development Pathways

 LAC
 Dual ag sys (large scale commercial sector alongside small farms)
  • Resources ...
Key Challenges and Opportunities
 Modern supply chains…LAC ahead of Asia, though Asia
  catching up fast: Mainstreaming s...
Key Challenges & Opportunities:
~ Modern supply chains of Food & Grocery
(Growth of Top 5 retailers in each country)
   Co...
Key Challenges & Opportunities
~Social Protection Programs
                               Asia                 Latin Ameri...
Key Challenges & Opportunities
~Asset Distribution (land ownership)
    LAC
      • Inequality is partially a reflection ...
Key Challenges & Opportunities
~Rural Non-farm Economy
  Non farm income accounts for 47% of rural income in LAC &
   51%...
Key Challenges & Opportunities
~Broad based growth
  EAP & South Asia
   • Growth in EA focused on “shared growth” (Birds...
Lessons for & from LAC & Asia

 Asia stands to benefit from LAC’s experience in
  • Supply chain innovations
  • Targetin...
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Why Agriculture Has Grown Differently? Lessons from Asia and Latin America

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Fostering Growth and Reducing Poverty and Hunger in Asia and Latin America: Opportunities for Mutual Learning
March 22-24, 2010
Lima, Peru

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Why Agriculture Has Grown Differently? Lessons from Asia and Latin America

  1. 1. Why Agriculture Has Grown Differently? Lessons from Asia and Latin America Shenggen Fan, Ashok Gulati and Joanna Brzeska Presentation at Fostering Growth and Reducing Poverty and Hunger in Asia and Latin America: Opportunities for Mutual Learning March 22-24, 2010 Lima, Peru
  2. 2. Outline  Growth performance and impact on poverty & inequality  Growth strategies (economic and agricultural)  Key challenges & opportunities for development • supply chains; social protection; asset distribution; rural non-farm economy; trade liberalization  Lessons for & from LAC & Asia
  3. 3. Overall Growth higher than Ag Growth Overall GDP Agricultural GDP 10 East Asia & Pacific 10 East Asia & Pacific South Asia 8 LAC South Asia 8 LAC 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Source: World Bank 2009.
  4. 4. GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 international $) Source: World Bank 2009.
  5. 5. Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) 35 East Asia & Pacific 30 South Asia LAC 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: World Bank 2009.
  6. 6. % Share of trade in total GDP Source: World Bank 2009.
  7. 7. Poverty: % share of people living below $1.25 a day 80 East Asia & Pacific South Asia 60 LAC 40 20 0 Source: Chen and Ravallion 2008 • 1 bil. people in Asia and 45 mil. people in LAC live below $1.25/day • Rural poverty continues to pose problems: • Large segment of poor live in rural areas • Rural areas have larger poverty rates than urban areas
  8. 8. Inequality Trends ~Gini coefficients LAC Year Gini Asia Year Gini Argentina 1996 0.486 Cambodia 1994 0.383 2003 0.513 2004 0.429 Brazil 1995 0.615 China 2004 0.470 2004 0.570 India 2004 0.368 Bolivia 2002 0.602 Indonesia 2002 0.343 Chile 1994 0.552 Nepal 1996 0.377 2003 0.549 2003 0.473 Mexico 1995 0.537 Philippines 1994 0.429 2004 0.461 2003 0.455 Peru 1994 0.449 Sri Lanka 1996 0.344 2003 0.520 2002 0.402 Venezuela 1995 0.468 Vietnam 1993 0.357 2003 0.482 2004 0.371 Source: Ferreira and Ravallion 2008.
  9. 9. Economic Development Pathways  EAP & South Asia • Explaining an “Asian model” is complicated • For “Asian-Tigers” it is “East Asian Miracle” – Short period of IM substitution in early 1960s followed by export-led growth in labor-intensive consumer goods (Adelman, 1999) – Mkt-friendly institutional & policy reforms alongside investments in infra. & human capital – Certain mkt distorting export subsidies existed but were removed – Lately, China’s exchange rate “under debate” – - India corrected “over-valued” exchange rate in 1991, and gradually opened the system to market forces
  10. 10. Economic Development Pathways • China – “firing from the bottom” • India – “trickle down from the top” Source: Gulati & Fan 2007
  11. 11. Economic Development Pathways  LAC • Starting in 1960s, industrialization thru government intervention & barriers to trade • Continued with IM substitution policies until the debt crisis in 1980s • Reforms centered on macroeconomic stabilization, trade liberalization, & deregulation • Considerable re-assessment of the role of gov’t. in econ. dev. • Trade policy~ remove QRs on EX&IM, elimination of export taxes & reduction in import tariffs (implicit taxation on agri. emanating from overvalued ex.rate removed) (Anderson & Valdes 2008)
  12. 12. Agricultural Development Pathways  EAP & South Asia Ag in Asia is unimodal: dominated by smallholders, role of ag in dev has varied (ex: China & India) • China (1978) & later Vietnam commenced economic liberalization with ag & land reforms • Including decentralization of ag production sys, liberalizing pricing & marketing sys. • Investments in agri R&D and rural infrastructure were crucial • Indian agri policy getting tilted towards input subsidies at the cost of investments
  13. 13. Agricultural Development Pathways  LAC Dual ag sys (large scale commercial sector alongside small farms) • Resources squeezed out of ag (Birdsall et.al. 2008) • Industrial protection & overvalued exchange rate posed as an indirect taxation on ag • Decline is distortions to ag incentives thru cuts in non-ag protection & ag policy reforms since early 1990s • Also, reduction of assistance to non-farm tradable sector induced growth in ag exports (Source: Anderson and Valdes, 2007)
  14. 14. Key Challenges and Opportunities  Modern supply chains…LAC ahead of Asia, though Asia catching up fast: Mainstreaming small holders and vendors a challenge ;  Social Protection: LAC spending much higher % of public expenditure than Asia, more targeted and towards conditional cash transfers (Asia to catch up)  Asset distribution: LAC highly unequal land holdings, Asia dominated by small holders  Non-farm income: 51% in LAC and 47% in Asia, investment in education and infrastructure key for off-farm employment  Broad based growth: Asia doing better than LAC
  15. 15. Key Challenges & Opportunities: ~ Modern supply chains of Food & Grocery (Growth of Top 5 retailers in each country) Comparing selected Asian & LAC countries 2001 to 2008 Source: Planet Retail Note: Categories as defined by Planet Retail for Banner Food sales
  16. 16. Key Challenges & Opportunities ~Social Protection Programs Asia Latin America 1980 1990 2000 2005 1980 1990 2000 2005 Agriculture 14.9 12.3 6.3 6.5 7.8 2.1 2.5 2.6 14.4 9.3 6.9 5.5 6.1 4.5 3.1 2.5 Education 13.8 17.4 16.9 17.9 10.4 7.9 14.8 14.3 13.7 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.0 14.5 17.8 16.3 Health 5.3 4.3 4.3 5.4 5.9 6.1 7.6 8.4 5.9 4.6 5.5 5.4 8.8 9.3 16.0 11.4 T&C 11.7 5.2 3.8 4.5 6.8 2.7 2.6 2.4 14.1 7.3 7.7 7.2 9.0 7.0 6.1 7.3 Social Security 1.9 2.4 6.4 8.7 23.7 21.8 36.4 36.6 3.5 4.3 6.3 8.7 13.7 16.8 22.4 15.8 Defense 17.6 12.9 8.3 7.9 6.1 5.0 4.6 3.8 16.0 12.7 10.6 9.8 9.3 9.7 5.7 7.4 Other 34.8 45.5 54.0 49.1 39.5 54.4 31.6 32.0 32.4 46.3 46.9 46.5 36.1 38.2 28.9 33.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
  17. 17. Key Challenges & Opportunities ~Asset Distribution (land ownership)  LAC • Inequality is partially a reflection of unequal land ownership (legacy of region’s colonial past) • Large farm owners make up less than 7% of all farms but occupy 82% of ag land; lack of land titles (Todaro, 2008; Birdsall et al, 2008) • Abundance of land & failure to implement agrarian reforms partially explain diff in growth between LAC and EAP (Kay 2001).  EAP & South Asia • In China, egalitarian access to land was ensured by early land reforms, help distribute benefits from ag price & mkt reforms (Yao, 2008)
  18. 18. Key Challenges & Opportunities ~Rural Non-farm Economy  Non farm income accounts for 47% of rural income in LAC & 51% in Asia (approx.)  Pressure on China & India to find viable exit & absorption strategies  In China, an estimated 5-7 million worker per year expected to exit ag b/w 2000 & 2015, up from 0.4 million per year in 1990s  Rural manuf. a/c for only 20% of total RNF employment in Asia, rest being service, trade & construction  China’s rapid growth centered on small pvt firms specializing in these sectors
  19. 19. Key Challenges & Opportunities ~Broad based growth  EAP & South Asia • Growth in EA focused on “shared growth” (Birdsall & Sabot, 1994) – Credit & export assist. for SME in South Korea & Taiwan – Massive investments in rural infra in Indonesia, China  LAC • Growth has not been pro-poor despite – Brazil: ag led by exports grew faster than industry since 1990 (Byerlee et al., 2005). – Land reforms in Chile, Peru, etc (not supported by dev. programs & policies to build capacity, access to tech., etc.)
  20. 20. Lessons for & from LAC & Asia  Asia stands to benefit from LAC’s experience in • Supply chain innovations • Targeting of social protection • Trade liberalization  Lessons for LAC from Asia • Equitable asset distribution • Rural non-farm economy • Institutional framework & Broad-based growth
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