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Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia
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Changing Roles of Agriculture and Food Sector in Asia

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On June 28, 2011, Dr. Shenggen Fan - Director General of IFPRI was invited to give a presentation at the Asian Development Bank in Manila, Philippines, on the new role of the agriculture and food …

On June 28, 2011, Dr. Shenggen Fan - Director General of IFPRI was invited to give a presentation at the Asian Development Bank in Manila, Philippines, on the new role of the agriculture and food sectors in Asia.

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  • Definitions and indicators• Little or no water scarcity. Abundant water resources relative to use, with less than 25% of water from rivers withdrawn for human purposes.• Physical water scarcity (water resources development is approaching or has exceeded sustainable limits). More than 75% of river flows are withdrawn for agriculture, industry, and domestic purposes (accounting for recycling of return flows). This definition—relating water availability to water demand—implies that dry areas are not necessarily water scarce.• Approaching physical water scarcity. More than 60% of river flows are withdrawn. These basins will experience physical water scarcity in the near future.• Economic water scarcity (human, institutional, and financial capital limit access to water even though water in nature is available locally to meet human demands). Water resources are abundant relative to water use, with less than 25% of water from rivers withdrawn for human purposes, but malnutrition exists.
  • A 1 meter rise is expected by the end of this century.Note that the Vietnam effect doesn’t take into increased salinization. Vietnamese scientists report that this is already becoming a problem, even before much sea level rise has taken place.
  • Scenario 1 — based on the actual biofuel plans of countries and biofuel expansion foridentified high-potential countries. Under this scenario prices increase ceteris paribus by 18percent for oilseeds and 26 percent for corn by 2020.Scenario 2 — based on a more drastic expansion of biofuels, assuming a doubling of theproduction expansion rate over Scenario 1 levels. Under this drastic biofuel expansionscenario (Scenario 2), the price of corn rises by 72 percent and of oilseeds by 44 percent.Under the two IMPACT scenarios, the increase in crop prices resulting from expanded biofuelproduction is also accompanied by a net decrease in availability and access to food. Calorieconsumption is estimated to decrease across regions under all scenarios compared to baselineLevels.
  • Data for developing S and E Asia countries
  • The Bangladesh study examined two components of the Vulnerable Group Development (VGD) program: (1) Income-Generating VGD (IGVGD) and (2) Food Security VGD (FSVGD). Both target poor women. IGVGD has a built-in mechanism to provide credit and training on income-generating activities in agriculture; The FSVGD program provides a combination of food and cash to program participants.
  • Transcript

    • 1. Changing roles of agriculture and food sector in Asia
      Shenggen FanDirector General
      International Food Policy Research Institute
      Asian Development Bank
      June 28, 2011
    • 2. Key messages
      Food security in Asia is under stress
      Agriculture needs to be adapted to dynamic changes and emerging trends
      Policies and investments must be redesigned to promote agricultural growth for broader development outcome
      Regional coordination is crucial to achieve goals efficiently and effectively
    • 3. 13 countries in Asia have serious/alarminglevels of hunger (2010 GHI)
      GHI components:
      • Proportion of undernourished
      • 4. Prevalence of underweight in children
      • 5. Under-five mortality rate
      Source: von Grebmer et al. 2010
    • 6. Significant variability in hunger within countries
      India State Hunger Index, 2008
      State-level hunger
      in India
      • 4 states: “serious”
      • 7. 12 states: “alarming”
      • 8. 1 state: “extremely alarming”
      Source: IFPRI 2009
    • 9. Food Insecurity: “Missing middle” in Asia
      Share of Asia’s undernourished population, 2007
      Large percentage of Asia’s undernourished are in middle income countries
      Source: World Bank 2010
    • 10. Food security is under stress from a complex web of factors
      Population growth and urbanization
      Land and water constraints
      Climate change
      High and volatile food prices
      Rising energy prices/biofuel expansion
    • 11. Population and demographic trends
      Developing South and East Asia’s rural and urban population
      Source: World Bank 2011
      Larger and more urban population = increased demand for more and better food
    • 12. Global and domestic food price hikes and volatility
      GLOBAL
      DOMESTIC
      Retail prices in Indonesia, national average
      Retail prices in Dong Thap, Vietnam
      Global hikes since June 2010
      Maize: 105%
      Wheat: 88%
      Source: Data from FAO 2011
    • 13. Land and water constraints are high
      Land degradation, 1981-2003
      Areas of physical and economic water scarcity, 2007
      Source: Bai et al. 2007 (LADA, FAO/ISRIC)
      Source: IWMI 2007
    • 14. Climate change will affect agriculture and food security
      Lower agricultural yields, production, and land availability due to
      Higher temps. and changes in precipitation patterns
      Sea-level rise
      Extreme events: soil erosion, droughts, floods, landslides, etc.
      Forest fires in Indonesia
      Salt water intrusion in Vietnam
      Floods in Pakistan
      Higher food prices
    • 15. Climate change impact: Crop yields, 2050
      Source: IFPRI 2011.
    • 16. Climate change impact: Crop yields, 2050
      Rainfed Wheat
      Rainfed Rice
      Source: IFPRI 2011
      Variation in impact across crops, countries, and regions
    • 17. Climate change impact: Agric. land
      30 percent of Vietnam’s rice growing area
      Source: Nelson 2010
    • 18. Strong link between oil and food prices influences food security
      Rising oil prices cause food prices to increase, rather than the reverse (Heady and Fan 2010)
      Rising oil prices make biofuels more profitable, rather than agricultural production more expensive (Abbott, Hurt, and Tyner 2008)
      Source: IMF 2011
      Note: Oil = Average crude oil price of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate
      Rise in oil prices particularly severe for Asian countries as many are net oil importers
    • 19. Biofuel expansion
      Increased biofuel production due to rising oil costs, etc.
      Source: OECD-FAO 2011
      • Increased demand for biofuel feedstock crops
      • 20. Increased competition for resources
      Calorie availability changes in 2020 compared to baseline (%)
      • Increased global food prices
      • 21. Biofuels account for 30% of increase in weighted average grain prices, 2000-2007 (Rosegrant 2008)
      Source: IFPRI IMPACT 2008
    • 22. Changing Role of Agriculture
    • 23. Agricultural GDP declining but employment remains important
      Number of economically active people in developing South and East Asia, millions
      Agricultural GDP as share of total GDP, %
      Source: FAO 2011
      Source: World Bank 2011
      About 70% of poor in Asia live in rural areas and depend on agriculture for their livelihood (IFAD 2010)
    • 24. Smallholder agriculture will continue
      Estimated 87% of world’s 500 million small farms (<2 ha) are in Asia (Thapa and Gaiha 2011)
      • China and India home to 193 mil. and 93 mil. small farms, respectively
      Declining trends in farm size:
      Source: Hazell 2011; Headey, Bezemer and Hazell 2010
    • 25. Growth in Crop Yields Declining
      Crop yield, hg/ha (millions)
      Growth in crop yield, %
      Source: FAO 2011
      Recent yield growth of staple crops in Asia has either modestly increased or been on the decline
    • 26. Consumption and production is more diversified
      Production
      Annual Growth, 1990-2009 (%)
      Consumption
      Annual Growth, 1990-2007 (%)
      Source: FAO 2011
    • 27. Large Gender Equality in Agriculture
      Women make up large share of ag. workforce but have less access to resources and services
      Closing gender gap in agriculture (FAO 2011):
      Increases ag. production by 2.5–4%
      Reduces number of undernourished people by 12–17%
    • 28. Conflict and Agriculture
      Conflicts are directly/indirectly related to agriculture:
      Poverty and underemployment of young men
      Inequalities in land, water, and other natural resources
      Recent uprisings in Arab region driven partially by food insecurity and high unemployment (Breisinger et al. 2011)
    • 29. Actions needed to enhance Asia’s food security
    • 30. Invest in productive social safety nets
      Better-targeted and more productive social protection policies need to:
      Secure basic livelihoods
      Protect poor people from risk and vulnerability
      Bangladesh Vulnerable Group Development Program
      Combines income-generating and food security interventions
      Increased per capita food consumption by 45-66 kcal per taka transfer (Ahmed et al. 2009)
      Programs depend on needs, capacities, and resources
    • 31. 2. Support transparent, fair, and open trade
      Eliminate harmful trade restrictions and prevent new ones to:
      increase market efficiency
      reduce price fluctuations
      Potential costs of failed Doha Round could be high (Bouet and Laborde 2009):
      • 11.5% loss of developing country exports
      • 32. US$353 billion loss in world welfare
      Quick completion of the Doha Round is crucial
    • 33. 3. Establish regional strategic grain reserves
      Create regional emergency reserve with grain donations from large food exporters
      Located in these countries, and also in poor food importing countries, e.g. Bangladesh
      Some regional initiatives are emerging e.g.
      Asean+3 Emergency Rice Reserve
      SADC Regional Food Reserve Facility
      Can address food crises, but need to
      lower operating costs
      overcome moral hazard and other challenges
    • 34. 4. Prevent biofuel expansion
      Halt expansion of biofuels from food crops to end competition between biofuel and food crop production
      Develop biofuel technologies that
      Convert crop residue into biofuels
      Enable use of land not suitable for food crops
      Curtail biofuel subsidies
      Flexible mandates and biofuel call options
      Divert agricultural products from biofuels to human consumption during food crises
    • 35. 5. Improve smallholder productivity
      Invest in smallholder-friendly ag. R&D and infrastructure
      Access to technology, high-quality seeds, and fertilizer
      Rural infrastructure
      Link smallholders to markets, esp. high-value
      Increase vertical and horizontal coordination
      Strengthen private sector participation
      Reform laws and reduce corruption
      Promote public-private partnerships
      Indian Rural Business Hubs -> public-private-panchayat (village council) partnership
    • 36. 5. Improve smallholder productivity
      Link smallholder production w/ health and nutrition outcomes
      Develop more nutritious varieties of staple food crops
      Improve safety regulations and postharvest handling
      Use agriculture to resolve conflicts: e.g. Pakistan, Afghanistan and Addressing Gender Gaps
      Invest in climate change mitigation & adaptation
      Win-win-win: agricultural investments should provide mitigation, adaptation, and productivity benefits for smallholders
    • 37. Establish regional framework for knowledge sharing
      Current cooperation within Asia is weak
      Need appropriate mechanisms based on countries’ capacities
      Other regions have surpassed Asia
      RESAKSS (Regional Strategic Analysis And Knowledge Support System)
      Africa-wide network established to provide analysis, data, and tools
      Promotes evidence-based decisionmaking

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