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General Assembly, Product Management Final Project - Pebble App Store and Wearable Devices (December 2013)
 

General Assembly, Product Management Final Project - Pebble App Store and Wearable Devices (December 2013)

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Final project for Product Management class at General Assembly (https://generalassemb.ly/education/product-management/new-york-city) in December 2013. ...

Final project for Product Management class at General Assembly (https://generalassemb.ly/education/product-management/new-york-city) in December 2013.

My project was focused on doing a post evaluation (future scenario of review in July 2014) of a scenario where Pebble launched an app store for Pebble watch apps, and an application to connect other wearable devices through Pebble.

Areas covered include: product life cycle, market analysis, inference ladder, MVPs, stakeholder analysis, business case, milestones, OKRs, business justifications, forecast, product page, storyboard, wireframes, user persona, feature prioritization - stack rank and MoSCoW, objective tree, metrics / KPIs

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  • DevelopmentPrototypeProof of ConceptMarket ResearchIntroductionLaunched!Low SalesHigh Cost / CustomerNegative ProfitsProduct = CoreFocus = AwarenessGrowthRapid Growing SalesModerate Cost / CustomerRising ProfitsProduct = Quality, Add-onsFocus = Market ShareMaturityPeak SalesLow Cost / CustomerHigh ProfitsProduct = DiversityFocus = Profit & Market ShareDeclineDeclining SalesLow Cost / CustomerDeclining ProfitsProduct = Phase Out All or PartFocus = EOL or Stretch
  • Introduction:The Pebble team created today’s smart watch industry and is looking to launch a universal platform of an app store and a wearable devices system to launch Pebble into mainstream use.Background:Smart watches were pioneered by Casio and Seiko in the 1980’s, but never took off into mainstream use. Popular culture references like Dick Tracy have lived on in popular mindset, but have never come to fruition. Pebble found incipient market need with its groundbreaking $10 million Kickstarter campaign, wooing almost 69,000 backers.Recently multiple players have entered the smart watch industry, smaller Kickstarter campaigns, most notably tech giants like Samsung and Qualcomm, and most recently Google. The market is becoming increasingly crowded, but Pebble still holds the first mover advantage. There are weaknesses in competitors that can be exploited – for example Samsung has limited the pairing of its Galaxy Gear smart watch to one specific Samsung Galaxy Note model and high return rates are being reported. However an app store and wearable devices infrastructure system was not set up initially, and left much of the details of downloading apps and customizations to early adopters to figure out. Scenario:The Pebble smart watch will achieve rapid uptake of its platform with mainstream users beyond the initial early adopter user base with the launch of an app store and wearable devices system. Pebble will create a whole new industry sector with partnerships across multiple wearable devices solidifying its market dominance where other tech giants fight for scraps of the remaining market.

General Assembly, Product Management Final Project - Pebble App Store and Wearable Devices (December 2013) General Assembly, Product Management Final Project - Pebble App Store and Wearable Devices (December 2013) Presentation Transcript

  • Wearable Device Internet App Store Shawn Dimantha General Assembly, Product Management, Final Project 12/4/2013
  • We have to make a tough decision today Identify Plan Develop Evaluate Launch Assess Maintain or Kill
  • But before we make the decision, let’s see how we got here…
  • Where we hypothesize we are now in the product lifecycle Development Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
  • Identify Plan Develop Evaluate Launch Assess Maintain or Kill
  • We started off with a brainstorming session with our working team, and identified a focus Apps Wearable Devices Smartwatches Smart clothing Medical sensors Pet Pebbles
  • Identify Plan Develop Evaluate Launch Assess Maintain or Kill
  • We identified a target market, market size, market value, and competition Category Description Technologically savvy and fitness conscious young adults, 20-34 years old, earning >$60,000/year in the United States Target Market 24 million people Market Size $5.3 Billion ($150 watch, $50 wearable device kickbacks, $20 in app purchases) Market Value / Penetration  Target Penetration of 50% of this market, $2.6 Billion, CAGR of 20% (so $7.8 Billion by 2020) $62.2 Billion for overall smartwatch market (Generator Research) by 2018 Competition Demographics  Sony SmartWatch, Samsung Galaxy Gear, Qualcomm Toq, Cookoo Watch, I’m Watch, Basis, Nike Sportswatch, Adidas runner’s watch, Google (tbd), Apple (tbd) US based , Smartphone owner, Email / text user, 20-34 years old, Male skewed, though females will definitely use the product, Above average income ($60K+), Likely to be urban dwelling, Tech savvy, Fitness/health conscious
  • Let’s take a step back and look at my Inference Ladder Raw Data News articles, customer discovery, market research Filtering Hone in on specific data points around fitness/health applications Assign meaning Customers must need a solution to manage health/wellness, wearable tech can fill gap Develop assumptions Assume that small observable trend in customer discovery can extend to broader population Develop conclusions There has been rapid adoption of smartphones, the same will happen for wearable tech Adjust beliefs to world around us A wearable device platform could connect all these devices, along with an app store Action: Let’s prioritize the app store and wearable devices internet for Pebble
  • Just to make sure we tested out some MVPs… Wearable Devices Internet App Store (consumers) App Store (developers) Hypotheses: Customers = Gen X Problem = no place for apps Hypotheses: Customers = 20-39 devs Problem = no $, no app market Hypotheses: Customers = Fit Gen X Problem = many dev., no insights Largest Risk Largest Risk Largest Risk Consumers (current owners) do not want apps for the Pebble Watch Developers or potential developers will not want to develop for the Pebble platform Current and future Pebble customers do not own other wearable devices Experiment Experiment Experiment Facebook post linked to existing mypebbelefaces.com Twitter / Stack Overflwo post linked to existing developer API/SDK documentation Facebook poll with existing wearable devices Success Criteria Success Criteria Success Criteria 6,000 people out of 62K click Results: 15,000 clicks 1,000 people out of 30 K followers click Results: 10,000 clicks 1,000 people out of 62K answer poll   Results: 8,000 people answer poll 
  • Ready for development, we pitched our key stakeholders next…
  • Who are our key stakeholders? Keep Satisfied (Low Interest, High Power) CEO / founders Board of directors Government International trade associations CFO CTO Wearable device manufacturers Manage Closely (High Interest, High Power) VC investors COO Operations Legal team Monitor (Low Interest, Low Power) Finance team Accounting Retail store partners Keep Informed (High Interest, Low Power) Supply chain distributors Customer support App developers Marketing people Business development / sales Creative director Working team Product manager Project manager Developers UX designers QA engineers
  • Who was in the room for our pitch? Development Kickoff • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • CEO / founders Board of directors CFO Finance team Accounting CTO COO Operations App developers Legal team Customer support Marketing people Business development Creative director QA engineers UX designers • • • • • QA engineers UX designers App developers Wearable device manufacturers Supply chain distributors Launch Prep Building • • • • • • • Wearable device manufacturers Pebble Watch manufacturers Supply chain distributors Retail store partners App developers QA engineers UX designers • • • • • • • • • • • Wearable device manufacturers Pebble Watch manufacturers Supply chain distributors Retail store partners Marketing people Business development / sales App developers Wearable device manufacturers Customer support Legal team Operations Approvals • • • • • • • • • CEO / founders CFO Finance team Accounting CTO COO Wearable device manufacturers VC investors Legal team Launch • • • • • • • • • • • • Wearable device manufacturers Pebble Watch manufacturers Supply chain distributors Retail store partners Marketing people Business development / sales Government International trade associations App developers Customer support Legal team Operations
  • Executive Summary Introduction: The Pebble team created today’s smart watch industry and is looking to launch a universal platform of an app store and a wearable devices system to launch Pebble into mainstream use. Background / Scenario: Then (1980’s) Now (2012-2013) Future (2014-2015)
  • Roadmap / Timeline Q3 2014: Achieve 60% of fitness tracking market Q1 2014: Launch app store, 1,000 devs Q2 2014: Launch beta WDI app, integrate Nike, FitBit Q1 2015: Medical partnerships achieved for WDI Q4 2014: 70,000 apps available in App store Q2 2015: 100,000 apps available in App Store Q4 2015: 200,000 apps available in App Store
  • Objectives / Key Results Q1 2014 Objective 1  80% Move Pebble from a primarily hardware-focused company to a primarily software-focused Key Results Initial app store created by using existing mypebblefaces.com and adding five new categories of products (games, fitness, lifestyle, schedule, news) 100 app developers signed up and have created apps for fitness, games, lifestyle functions Why? Software is a long game, builds distribution channels Objective 2  75% Transform Pebble into main wearable tech interface for 15% of wearable tech users Why? Need to start gaining market share as an interface Developer-ready SDK added to app store with documentation, existing Pebble API tool links added to app store homepage Key Results Data standard for Pebble created compatible with Nike FuelBand and FitBit data, all activity tracked in this new data standard Tab built into current mobile app to allow for WDI sign ups (email, name, devices owned) and display data in bar chart format from current Pebble device 100% of Pebble watch data connected to and compatible WDI system API
  • Objectives / Key Results Q2 2014 Objective 1  55% Key Results 5,000 developers signed up for Pebble App Store, and 100,000 users signed up for using apps with referral links Grow Pebble into smartwatch app hub Enable all Bluetooth LTE and motion sensor functionalities on Pebble store front Why? Smartwatch will be a $62 billion industry, need to become main software Approve and publish 5,000 developer created Pebble apps in quarter Objective 2  40% Become the main fitness tech platform for non-running activities Why? Fitness is the first step to wearable tech dominance Key Results Compatibility with WDI for swimming, cycling, and biking tracked activity built within Pebble watch and on other fitness devices that do such tracking including smartwatches and simple activity trackers Sleep tracking device compatibility added with Jawbone UP as a pilot for future data integration
  • Objectives / Key Results Q3 2014 Objective 1 Key Results Product integrations with Misfit Wearables, Jawbone UP, BodyMedia devices established Achieve accessible reach to at least 60% of fitness tracking market RunKeeper and MapMyFitness app APIs incorporated into Pebble WDI Why? Fitness tech moves fast, but if we can get majority, we will win Apple iPhone 5 m7 processor incorporated into Pebble hardware sensing technology Objective 2 Key Results Become go-to market platform for activity tracking across task-based activities and fitness Why? Need to start hacking away at higher growth wearable tech markets Nike Fuel made into standard base tracker of all activity enabled by partnership with Nike, Fuel converted into Pebbles, which become new standard of tracking for Pebble WDI users FitBit integration added to full line of FitBit products including API linkup with Pebble WDI 10,000 beta testers signed up through Nike+ platform
  • Objectives / Key Results Q4 2014 Objective 1 Achieve market leadership in accessible apps created across all smart devices (inclusive of smartwatches) Key Results Android marketplace integration with Pebble App store established to increase worldwide reach (Android has 80% of global smart device market) Why? Smartwatch will be a $62 billion industry, need to become main software iOS App store market integration established with apps fully compatible with Pebble and iOS hardware Objective 2 Key Results WDI app added as standalone interface accessible from multiple platforms and devices, priority on smartphones and tablets Become market leader in wearable device related apps created, used, and revenue generated Why? Need to own all categories to keep footprint in market look at iOS app store Developer monetization program integrated into wearable tech devices to track revenue achieved through Pebble WDI In app and homepage advertising content added to Pebble properties to increase monetization opportunities
  • Business Justifications Benefits: • App Store: Increased functionality • App Store: More revenue streams • WDI: Network reach, platform strategy locks in customers Assumptions (highest sensitivity assumptions in red): •  Sufficient number of app users / downloaders • Sufficient number of developers  Wearable tech market will grow to $60 billion by 2018 • • Wearable tech makers will want to plug into system Alternatives considered (green options were most feasible considered options): Building a Pebble watch with LCD Acquire an app store from existing entity like FitBit Acquire existing HumanAPI / Open mHealth platform Partner with Cisco to gain access to distribution chann. Grow existing business focused on UX improvements
  • 2014 Cost, Sales Forecast (Benefits) 2014 Costs: Total 2014 Revenues: Categories $400K = 4 full stack engineers x 100K $100K = 1 UX designer $1.2 M $300K = AWS server burn $200K = Online advertising Worst ($2 M) Worst Case Assumptions $600K in App store revenue (30% * 1,000 paid apps * $2 average cost * 1000 average downloads) No partner revenue $2M if we take 0.1% of $2B of the healthcare market costs Most Likely ($60 M) Dec-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 $200K = Sales reps / biz dev Best ($110 M) Best Case Assumptions $60M in App store revenue (30% * 100,000 paid apps * $2 average cost * 1000 average downloads) $30M in partner revenue $20M in if we take 1% of $2B of the healthcare market costs
  • Identify Plan Develop Evaluate Launch Assess Maintain or Kill
  • Product Page, in Brief Elevator Pitch Provide users with a simple interface for their smartphone, on their wrist, without requiring the physical use of their smartphone. Core Objectives • Create and grow smartwatch category • Enable hands-free activities • Synchronize experience Strategic Insights Secret sauce: Disrupt smartphones, we provide interface to smartphones, with readable/non-glare e-ink screen; we’re locking in partners to bar others from entry Competitors Sony SmartWatch, Samsung Galaxy Gear, Qualcomm Toq, Cookoo Watch, I’m Watch, Basis, Nike Sportswatch, Adidas runner’s watch, Google (tbd), Apple (tbd) Challenges/Risks Supply Chain Foreign IP Competition Adapting to new tech Market stagnation Commoditization
  • Storyboard for Wearable Devices Internet (WDI): Site Map Home (Avatar screen) Device 11 Device 1 Device summary summary summary pop-up pop-up pop-up Goals details Goals edit
  • Storyboard WDI – Part 1 1 7 2 4 Description: The home screen displays all devices connected on user’s body. The pop-up displays daily progress 1 Title 5 3 2 Avatar 6 3 Connected devices (highlighted) 4 Pop-up when click on device 5 Total activity listed with units for the day 6 % Progress of activity for the day 7 Close window button (x)
  • Storyboard WDI – Part 2 5 3 2 1 4 Description: When user closes pop-up, home screen displayed with device name abbreviations. If user clicks on goals in pop-up more detailed window with all goals for device listed. 1 Device abbrevaitions 2 Avatar 6 8 7 3 Total daily activity 4 Total daily activity progress 5 Name of device 6 Monthly goals, if daily goal hit, day 7 highlighted if Social activity user friends like activity 8 Daily streaks listed
  • Storyboard WDI – Part 3 3 1 4 6 2 5 Description: User can edit goals if click on monthly goals. Numbers can be edited by spinning up (like slot machine). Progress bars update automatically. 1 Edit goals numbers 2 Ok to confirm, cancel to not change 3 Daily activity progress updates 4 Change goals by swiping up 5 Click ok to confirm 6 Confirmation message that goals changed
  • User Persona for WDI Ray White A/R/G/S: 38 years old, White, Male, In a Relationship Location: San Francisco, CA Education: College graduate from UC Berkley Job: Business Development Lead, Path Ray’s Story Everyday Ray wakes up to his Clocky’s incessant rolling and beeping around his bedroom floor at 6 am. His girlfriend Sandy is still asleep because she is not a fitness addict like Ray. Ray scarfs down a bowl of cereal while reading the latest headlines from the Times. He immediately puts on his Brooks running shoes, already having suited up in his gym clothes. He is training for a half-marathon in Sausalito at the end of the month, so is slowly working up his pace, keeping track of his run with RunKeeper app on his iPhone. After finishing his 6 mile run in Golden Gate Park, he declines to share to Facebook. He gets back to his apartment in the Mission and takes a shower before throwing on a suit for work, today is a big day trying to land a partnership with Instagram to tie Path’s feed to Instagram. He bikes to Path’s SOMA office and steps into several meetings with junior folks trying to learn the trade of deal-making. After clocking in his ride on his Moves app, he starts to teach these rookies the tricks of the trade. Ray likes not having to enter anything into his phone as he tracks his workouts. Ray calls up an Uber cab and is whisked away to Instagram’s office. This is the 7th straight day of negotiations, Ray constantly checks his iPhone for updates on his internal deadlines. He gets an email from Sandy setting up plans for dinner at the new locally sourced restaurant down the street. How we would change features based on Ray’s Persona: • Add automatic tracking as a default to WDI platform • Incorporate notifications into WDI platform and existing email structure if user wants (email still stronger than app notifications) • Add race schedules of major events so users can sign up
  • User Stories Help Tech Team Develop with User in Mind Sprint 1: Plug in other devices into platform ID: 1 Title: Build API bridge to Nike FuelBand Description: As a Nike+ FuelBand enthusiast I want to be able to access my Nike+ data alongside my Pebble data so that I can keep track of all my activity levels. User Acceptance: Nike+ FuelBand push notifications allow data push to server. Data received on server and matches Nike Fuel Band data. On / off buttons under each device can be toggled without error. If button is off, device data cannot be accessed, if button is on device data is displayed to user. If both toggle buttons off, display pop-up message notifying user no devices are connected. Notes/Wireframes 
  • We prioritized WDI features using MoSCoW and Stack Rank for Q1 2014 Musts • (WDI) Username sign in box • (WDI) Password entry box • (WDI) Sign up button • (WDI) Wearable device data numbers Shoulds • (WDI) Devices tab image Coulds • (WDI) Wearable device icons • (WDI) Wearable device description text • (WDI) Scatter Plot chart customizable displaying data Wants • (WDI) Cover flow style wearable device icons • (WDI) Cover flow wearable devices location indicator (circles filled in or empty) • (WDI) Sign in progress screen • (WDI) Scatter Plot chart x-axis values • (WDI) Scatter Plot chart x-axis units • (WDI) Scatter Plot chart y-axis values • (WDI) Scatter Plot chart y-axis units • (WDI) Scatter Plot chart: Drop down for time period of data • (WDI) Scatter Plot chart: Drop down for units of data Key: Red text indicates can be completed in 3 months per stacked rank list
  • The Tech Team Wanted to Understand Why…So We Built an Objective Tree Make Pebble the leader in the smart / connected device market Make Pebble the leader in the wearable tech market Become go-to market platform for activity tracking across taskbased activities and fitness *Nike + FitBit *Sleep + swimming Make Pebble the leader in the applications marketplace Become market leader in wearable device related apps created, used, and revenue generated Grow Pebble into smartwatch app hub Move Pebble from a primarily hardwarefocused company to a primarily softwarefocused *1,000+ wearable developers *100,000 apps developed *Create app store
  • Identify Plan Develop Evaluate Launch Assess Maintain or Kill
  • Q2 2014 Key Metrics Dashboard App Store (Consumer-facing) Acquire Engage Retain Grow Revenue Wearable Devices Internet App Store (Developer-facing)  $0.02 Goal: <$0.05 Cost/click  $0.15 Goal: <$0.20 Cost/click  $0.10 Goal: <$0.25 Cost/click   0.4 Goal: >0.2 Registrations/visit  0.3 Goal: >0.2 Registrations/visit  0.5 Goal: >0.25 Registrations/visit   8.7 Goal: >5 Apps downl./mo  2.5 Goal: >1 Apps created/3 mo  4,568 Goal: >2,000 Activities / week   5 Goal: >0.5 Apps shared/user  3.5 Goal: >2 Referrals / user  4,568 Goal: >2,000 Activities / week  ? 0.2 Goal: >0.3 Paid apps:All apps - 0.3 Goal: >0.5 Paid apps:Total apps - 1.5 Goal: >2 Devices/user -
  • We vote to maintain and grow – do you? Maintain and Grow or Kill