from digital home to mobile universe: the technological outlook Shane Williamson Senior Consultant DRC [email_address]

State of the Blogosphere, February 2006 Technorati now tracks over 27.2 Million Blogs. The Blogosphere is doubling in size every 5 and a half months It is now over 60 times bigger than it was 3 years ago On average, a new weblog is created every second of every day 13.7 million Bloggers are still posting 3 months after their Blogs are created Technorati tracks about 1.2 million new Blog posts each day, about 50,000 per hour Over 81 million posts with tags since January 2005, increasing by 400,000 per day Some facts in summary from Dave Sifry, Blogging on the Technorati Blog about the state of the Blogosphere: http://www.technorati.com/weblog/2006/02/81.html

Technorati now tracks over 27.2 Million Blogs.

The Blogosphere is doubling in size every 5 and a half months

It is now over 60 times bigger than it was 3 years ago

On average, a new weblog is created every second of every day

13.7 million Bloggers are still posting 3 months after their Blogs are created

Technorati tracks about 1.2 million new Blog posts each day, about 50,000 per hour

Over 81 million posts with tags since January 2005, increasing by 400,000 per day

http://www.destinationcrm.com/articles/default.asp?ArticleID=5672

2 Lifetimes of Technology 1844 Telegraph 1876 Telephone 1877 Phonograph 1887 “ Platter” Record 1888 Kodak Camera 1906 Radio Broadast 1927 TV 1936 Programmable Computers 1947 Polaroid Camera 1981 PC 1979 Cellular Phone 1910 Talking motion picture 1921 1 st Robot built 1942 Isaac Asimov’s 4 Robotic laws 1929 Car Radio 1932 Polaroid Photography 1940 Colour TV 1951 Video Tape Recorder 1962 Audio Cassette 1963 Video Disc 1965 Compact Disc 1971 Microprocessor 1971 VCR + Liquid Crystal Display 1973 Ethernet 1979 “ Walkman” Audio Cassette tape 1984 CD-ROM 1988 Digital Cellular Phone 1989 HDTV 1990 WWW 1995 DVD 1950 Turing “Test” For AI 1956 1 st Robotic Company 1961 Industrial Robots 1979 Seeing Robots 2001 MOBILE WEB 2001 Video mobile 2001 iPods AUDIO TELEPHONY VIDEO COMPUTER ROBOTS (AI) 2003 Pet Robots 1800 1900 2000 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

the 3G mobile landscape

3G Telecommunication Person-to-person audio/video & Fax (ISDN) Mobility Roaming Mailbox Services (SMS, voice) Call centre services Internet/ Intranet E-Mail WWW Video & voice over IP E-Commerce Information - Data Audio & video on demand Infotainment/ Education TV & radio distribution

Telecommunication

Person-to-person audio/video & Fax (ISDN)

Mobility Roaming

Mailbox Services (SMS, voice)

Call centre services

Internet/ Intranet

E-Mail

WWW

Video & voice over IP

E-Commerce

Information - Data

Audio & video on demand

Infotainment/ Education

TV & radio distribution

why 3G is a new category - broadband speeds

mobile ubiquity business.three.com.au Sharp SH2101V (FOMA) Touch-panel screen Keyboard Panasonic P2402 (FOMA) Type II CompactFlash™ card Video conferencing enabled Novatel Wireless Merlin U530 PCMCIA data card Fujitsu F2611 (FOMA) 4 10BASE-T Ethernet ports 7 meter range Bluetooth handset Dialogue Flybook Notebook/Tablet PC Windows XP 3G/WiFi/LAN/Bluetooth Mobile phone functionality Sierra Wireless MP 555 Integrated GPS module for vehicle tracking Telson TWC-1150 VeriFone Omni 3600 Triple track magnetic card reader Smartcard reader Integrated printer

mobiles are becoming the new media gateway

3G Vs 2G 3G users use more data services than 2G users. The demand for mobile content will need to grow to fill this demand. http://www.160characters.org/news.php?action=view&nid=1932

3G users use more data services than 2G users.

The demand for mobile content will need to grow to fill this demand.

technology and the media in 2006

Internet is a richer experience

Converging Media Technologies Radio TV Internet Tivo BitTorrent MobileTV IPTV MP3 Analogue Age The Digital Era Commercial media controlled viewing experience user controlled viewing experience

Device Case Study: Nokia N90

Device Case Study: Nokia N90 mo Movie & still digital camera (Carl Zeiss optics) Voice & video calls Quickoffice software (spreadsheet, word, PPT & PDF) E-mail USB drive Symbian operating system Video editing

Device Case Study: Nokia N90 Movie & still digital camera (Carl Zeiss optics) Voice & video calls E-mail

Device Case Study: TiVo Series2 with TiVoToGo

Device Case Study: TiVo Series2 with TiVoToGo

Mobile TV Trials A recent trial (2005) in the UK by O2 & Nokia (400 people) 83% of the trail users were satisfied with the service 76% said that they would take it up within 12 months. According to O2, the accepted monthly price for the service is around the £8 Service will not be called MobileTV but PersonalTV

A recent trial (2005) in the UK by O2 & Nokia (400 people)

83% of the trail users were satisfied with the service

76% said that they would take it up within 12 months.

According to O2, the accepted monthly price for the service is around the £8

Service will not be called MobileTV but PersonalTV

The Generation Gap 48% of those ages 13 to 17 said they are interested in watching a feature-length film on their cell phones, compared with 23% among those 55+, according to Parks Associates. http://blogs.zdnet.com/ITFacts/?p=10168&part=rss&tag=feed&subj=zdblog

48% of those ages 13 to 17 said they are interested in watching a feature-length film on their cell phones, compared with 23% among those 55+, according to Parks Associates.

Report: Nearly 18 Billion Videos Streamed Online in 2005 Monterey, Calif. - The number of Internet video streams served in 2005 was up 50% over 2004 , to 17.95 billion, with 85% of these streamed at broadband rates , according to a report from market research firm AccuStream Research. Surfers also tuned into more streaming Web radio stations, as aggregate tuning hours for 2005 were 43% higher than the previous year. Music was the top video category online again in 2005, accounting for 45% of all video streams served . In addition to traffic generated by new independent streaming video sites, like Break.com, StupidVideos.com, Roo and Video Detective, the largest streaming video networks remained part of large portals like AOL, Yahoo and Real Networks, AccuStream said. "Syndication agreements between large content brands such as Fox Sports and MSN Video, CBS and ABC with AOL, along with ESPN and high-speed network providers suggests streaming media is following a maturation path carved out by major broadcast, cable and satellite distribution platforms," said AccuStream research director Paul A. Palumbo. ht tp://www.accustreamresearch.com

Monterey, Calif. - The number of Internet video streams served in 2005 was up 50% over 2004 , to 17.95 billion, with 85% of these streamed at broadband rates , according to a report from market research firm AccuStream Research. Surfers also tuned into more streaming Web radio stations, as aggregate tuning hours for 2005 were 43% higher than the previous year. Music was the top video category online again in 2005, accounting for 45% of all video streams served . In addition to traffic generated by new independent streaming video sites, like Break.com, StupidVideos.com, Roo and Video Detective, the largest streaming video networks remained part of large portals like AOL, Yahoo and Real Networks, AccuStream said. "Syndication agreements between large content brands such as Fox Sports and MSN Video, CBS and ABC with AOL, along with ESPN and high-speed network providers suggests streaming media is following a maturation path carved out by major broadcast, cable and satellite distribution platforms," said AccuStream research director Paul A. Palumbo.

ht tp://www.accustreamresearch.com

the road ahead

Media consumption trends Time shifted - ability to watch your content at any time Space shifted - ability to watch your content anywhere. Cross device enablement - record on my STB then watch on my mobile. User Producers - people creating/ sharing/ selling their own content.

Time shifted - ability to watch your content at any time

Space shifted - ability to watch your content anywhere.

Cross device enablement - record on my STB then watch on my mobile.

User Producers - people creating/ sharing/ selling their own content.

Introducing the new competition…. your customers

user producers

It’s about them! To understand the future trends of technology one must understand the future user Know today’s youth as they are, watching multiple sources of media at the same time easily distracted. brand loyal - (but only due to social & cultural icon pulls) extremely technologically savvy

To understand the future trends of technology one must understand the future user

Know today’s youth as they are,

watching multiple sources of media at the same time

easily distracted.

brand loyal - (but only due to social & cultural icon pulls)

extremely technologically savvy

Massive Passives, Gadgetiers & Kool Kids!?!? (from IBM “The end of TV as we know it”) http://www-1.ibm.com/services/us/index.wss/ibvstudy/imc/a1023172?cntxt=a1000062

MASS MEDIA CONTENT PERSONALISED RELEVANT CONTENT TIME & SPACE SHIFTED

New markets

TV content in a mobile world

What’s in a SIM? SIM = Subscriber Identity Module Z-SIM - contact less authentication will be able to turn lights on or off, start washing machines, program the heater and buy television programs from a pay TV service. The appliances would have their own SIM cards that would allow them to "recognize" the Z-SIM and carry out the function Once the two SIM cards have been "paired", the phone can be used to control household appliances (turn on the heating, change the temperature, manage sprinkler systems, turn household lights on and off, manage computer files, etc.). Commonly used set-top box smartcards equipped with the new technology will also be able to "communicate" with mobile phones, turning mobile phones into a method for purchasing TV content instead of connecting a set-top box to a telephone socket. Mobile phones can be used to interact with a TV set-top box and order pay-per-view football matches or films, or recharge a prepaid smartcard without going to a sales outlet. TIM is developing new methods of payment that enable customers to pay for content using the new SIM card.

SIM = Subscriber Identity Module

Z-SIM - contact less authentication

will be able to turn lights on or off, start washing machines, program the heater and buy television programs from a pay TV service.

The appliances would have their own SIM cards that would allow them to "recognize" the Z-SIM and carry out the function

The “leapfrog effect” A recent survey of how the Internet is being used in Europe shows that “….in some key areas the east is ahead. It's a symptom of the "leapfrog effect," in which technology laggards skip a couple of middle steps that mature markets take”, according to Alex Burmaster,European Internet analyst at Nielsen/Net Ratings. For instance,a higher percentage of Internet users in Lithuania, 42 percent, access the Web from portable devices like mobile phones than in Britain,where the figure is 25 percent, the Net Ratings survey showed. The same is true for instant messaging,looking for a job online and a handful of other tasks that the industry considers advanced use of the Internet, Burmaster said. "The average percent of the online population likely to use IM across the Eastern European countries is 19 percent, compared to 10 percent for the Western European countries,"he said. In Internet job searches,the percentages are 12 in the East and 7 in the West. “ More startling, perhaps, are the survey results for online news. Eastern European surfers are more likely to be reading the Internet version of newspapers than the print version” , he said, and far more likely to get news off the Net than Western Europeans. Ukraine, Hungary, Poland and Latvia are the four European markets whose online users are most likely to read an online newspaper,” the survey showed. http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/01/11/business/ptend12.php

A recent survey of how the Internet is being used in Europe shows that “….in some key areas the east is ahead. It's a symptom of the "leapfrog effect," in which technology laggards skip a couple of middle steps that mature markets take”, according to Alex Burmaster,European Internet analyst at Nielsen/Net Ratings.

For instance,a higher percentage of Internet users in Lithuania, 42 percent, access the Web from portable devices like mobile phones than in Britain,where the figure is 25 percent, the Net Ratings survey showed. The same is true for instant messaging,looking for a job online and a handful of other tasks that the industry considers advanced use of the Internet, Burmaster said. "The average percent of the online population likely to use IM across the Eastern European countries is 19 percent, compared to 10 percent for the Western European countries,"he said. In Internet job searches,the percentages are 12 in the East and 7 in the West.

“ More startling, perhaps, are the survey results for online news. Eastern European surfers are more likely to be reading the Internet version of newspapers than the print version” , he said, and far more likely to get news off the Net than Western Europeans. Ukraine, Hungary, Poland and Latvia are the four European markets whose online users are most likely to read an online newspaper,” the survey showed.

New ways to watch http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20050606/105475/?ST=english Olympus has created a prototype head mountable display (HMD) that is designed to be worn all the time (only 27 grams in weight) and display information without hindering the vision. They give an example of train timetables that are projected onto the users glasses. From a mobile perspective the user will be able to see: Call & alert notifications Caller ID display Walking/driving directions Location based information Virtual info booth Emergency info

Olympus has created a prototype head mountable display (HMD) that is designed to be worn all the time (only 27 grams in weight) and display information without hindering the vision.

They give an example of train timetables that are projected onto the users glasses.

From a mobile perspective the user will be able to see:

Call & alert notifications

Caller ID display

Walking/driving directions

Location based information

Virtual info booth

Emergency info

Other’s watching for you Korea to introduce household bots to watch the kids, clean and order pizza South Korea's Ministry of Information and Communications hopes to introduce a series of internet-connected household robots this October. The bots, according to the Ministry, will be able to perform such household tasks as cleaning, monitoring homes, reading to children, and ordering pizza via the Internet. The Korean government also plans to roll out robo-cops that can pursue suspects, and multi-legged or wheeled combat bots within the next five years. The bots will receive most of their commands via a wireless Internet connection , keeping costs down to as little as $1,000, and allowing a malevolent AI or evil scientist to completely take over the nation's network of robots at will. http://engadget.com/2006/01/17/korea-to-introduce-household-bots-to-watch-the-kids-clean-and-o/

“ Consumer is an industrial-age word, a broadcast-age word. It implies that we are all tied to our chairs, head back, eating ‘content’ and crapping cash.” Doc Searls http://doc.weblogs.com/ Co-author of “ The Cluetrain Manifesto”

Thank you Shane Williamson DRC [email_address] http://spaces.msn.com/shanewilliamson