Part Ii   Gold Standard Redux
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Part Ii Gold Standard Redux

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On gold investments and gold standards

On gold investments and gold standards

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Part Ii   Gold Standard Redux Part Ii Gold Standard Redux Document Transcript

  • Shamik Bhose Executive Director Commodity & Currency & Interest rate futures Markets Microsec Commerze Limited11 Reasons plus, Gold Could Go to 5,000$ -- $10,000. In the Next 24-48 Months! Bonds –debtmarket could collapse! Interest rates could double from here..........We may reach levels for gold previously thought of as crazy – $5,000 an ounce or even $10,000 –with plenty of volatility and pullbacks along the way… and in my opinion there are 10 reasons itcould happen within the next48 odd months and, if not by then, then soon after. Why? As PatrickKerr argues, because, in short, there is way too much fiat currency chasing way too little gold.1. ReflationAs the world looks to “reflate” their economies, fiat currencies (dollar, euro etc) are being deliberatelydevalued by governments worldwide as a way to get out from massive debt burdens that were run upduring “credit bubble” and continue at ever higher levels with “stimulus” plans. The U.S. very muchwants and needs a weaker dollar and low interest rates as deficits and unemployment continue to soar.Fiat currencies will likely continue to be aggressively devalued over the next decade.2. Increase in Chinese Gold ReservesChina has $2 Trillion in foreign currency reserves (fiat currency) and only 2% in gold, vs. 75% for USand 10% worldwide average. With every .5% drop in the dollar the value of China’s foreign currencyreserves drop by $10 billion dollars (a move happening daily recently). If China wisely decides toincrease its gold reserves and reduce it fiat currency exposure to even just the worldwide average, goldprices could move substantially higher and stay at higher price levels.3. Lack of Gold SupplyThe gold industry has not replaced gold reserves mined in over a decade. Gold is simply too scarce andscarcity means shortages on the near term horizon. Shortages in gold means there is not enough physicalgold available to cover the massive quantities of gold that has been “lent”, “leased” or “pledged”. Thissituation will only be exasperated going forward opening the real possibility of a major gold short squeezeand possible price spike pushing gold to the stratosphere (and keeping it there).4. Scarcity of GoldThroughout history only 160,000 tons of gold has ever been mined. For folks who might not know, all thegold that’s ever been found would fit into two olympic-size swimming pools! At today’s prices thatequates to $9 trillion dollars vs $60 trillion in outstanding fiat currency. As fiat currency continues to bedeliberately debased look for this price relationship to invert. http://www.slideshare.net/shamikbhose http://in.linkedin.com/pub/shamik-bhose/4/159/700Shamik Bhosesbhose@microsec.in ; shamikbhose@yahoo.com
  • Shamik Bhose Executive Director Commodity & Currency & Interest rate futures Markets Microsec Commerze Limited5. Repatriation of GoldHong Kong recently pulled all its gold holdings and deposits from London. Hong Kong wants tophysically possess and control its gold and now does. Look for other countries to follow.6. Central Banks Becoming Net Buyers of GoldCentral banks are in the process of switching from net sellers of gold to net buyers, this is a major secularchange and is likely to continue as other central banks look to follow suit diversify reserves away fromheavy fiat currency exposure.7. Major Insurance Companies Now Buying GoldNorthwestern Mutual, considered a conservatively run yet savvy company, recently purchased $400million worth of gold, its first purchase in 152 years. Its CEO Edward Zore believes gold could increasefive fold. Look for other insurance companies to follow.8. Sovereign Wealth Funds Buying GoldThe sovereign wealth funds of China, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have begun heavily investing incommodities world-wide to diversify out of fiat currency (dollar, euro). Look for more SWFs to follow.9. Major Fund Managers Buying GoldRespected and widely followed fund managers are publicly piling into gold and/or out of the dollar andother fiat currencies including John Paulson, Bill Gross, Paul Tudor Jones, Kyle Bass, Andrew Hall,David Einhorn, Paolo Pellegrini, John Burbank, Sri Kumar, David Rosenberg (economist), JohnHasenstab, Evy Hambro, Donald Coxe, John Brynjolfsson, Henry McVey, Eric Sprott, Steve Leutholdand David Tice. Look for other major mutual funds, hedge funds and pension funds to follow the leaders.10. Gold Hedging ConcludingTraditional gold hedgers (producers, miners etc) such as Barrick, the world’s largest gold company, areeliminating their hedge books…essentially taking the cap of the market…as gold supplies dry upproducers are no longer locking in prices by selling massive quantities of futures contracts…this takesselling pressure off and indicates producers believe prices will be going much higher. Look for allproducers to unwind their hedge books.ConclusionThe world is changing rapidly. Old world powers, like the US, are making room on the stage for newworld powers like China. Previous deep pockets are being displaced by new even deeper pockets: CentralBanks. All of the above indicates the possibility much higher prices to come. The first movers in all thecategories above (central banks, insurance companies, funds, sovereign wealth funds) will have theadvantage of getting in at lower prices.Late movers will be forced to buy at higher prices….. 11th and more reasons to be continued inPart-3Shamik Bhosesbhose@microsec.in ; shamikbhose@yahoo.com
  • Shamik Bhose Executive Director Commodity & Currency & Interest rate futures Markets Microsec Commerze LimitedUpdating: Analysts Who Foresee $3,000 to 5,000/oz or More Gold ;I am there towards the end as a conservative voice(apparently),predicting sometime in late 2010that gold hits 3000$ by 2014 Who would have believed that 133 distinguished analysts would maintain that gold and byimplication, silver, are likely to achieve such lofty levels as a result of the effects of our currentfinancially troubled and volatile times? Their rationale is varied but each is sound in its own right.This updates an article published a by ResourceInvestor.com last summer when 72 analystsforesaw parabolic gold...by lorimer WilsonOf the 133 analysts who have now gone public in maintaining that gold will eventually go to a parabolicpeak price of $2,500/ozt.+ before the bubble bursts, 90 – yes 90 – currently maintain that gold willreach at least $5,000 per ozt. Take a look here at who is projecting what, by when.Three Analysts See Gold Reaching its Parabolic Peak Sometime in 2011: 1. Bob Kirtley $10,000 2. Patrick Kerr $5,000-$10,000 3. Taran Marwah $3,00010 Analysts See Gold Reaching its Peak By the End of 2012: 1. Arnold Bock $10,000 2. Porter Stansberry $10,000 3. Taran Marwah $6,000+ 4. Greg McCoach $5,000+ 5. Robert McEwen $5,000 6. Mary Anne and Pamela Aden $3,000-$5,000; 7. John Paulson $2,400-$4,000 8. Ian McAvity $2,500-$3,000 9. Peter Hambro $2,500 10. Charles Nenner $2,50011 Analysts See Gold Going Parabolic to +$10,000 1. Doctor RX $20,000 (by 2020) 2. Mike Maloney $15,000 3. Ben Davies $10,000-$15,000 4. Howard Katz $14,000 5. Jeffrey Lewis $7,000-$14,000 6. Jim Sinclair $12,455Shamik Bhosesbhose@microsec.in ; shamikbhose@yahoo.com
  • Shamik Bhose Executive Director Commodity & Currency & Interest rate futures Markets Microsec Commerze Limited 7. Goldrunner $10,000–$12,000 8. Martin Armstrong $5,000-$12,000 (by 2015/16) 9. Robin Griffiths $3,000-$12,000 (by 2015) 10. Jim Rickards $4,000-$11,000 11. Roland Watson $10,80046 Analysts See Gold Price Peaking Between $5,001 and $10,000 1. Bob Kirtley $10,000 (by 2011) 2. Arnold Bock $10,000 (by 2012) 3. Porter Stansberry $10,000 (by 2012) 4. Peter George $10,000 (by 2015) 5. Tom Fischer $10,000 6. Shayne McGuire $10,000 7. Eric Hommelberg $10,000 8. David Petch $6,000-$10,000 9. Gerald Celente $6,000-$10,000 10. Egon von Greyerz $6,000-$10,000 11. Peter Schiff $5,000-$10,000 (in 5 to 10 years) 12. Patrick Kerr $5,000-$10,000 (by 2011) 13. Peter Millar $5,000-$10,000 14. Roger Wiegand $5,000-$10,000 15. Alf Field $4,250-$10,000 16. Jeff Nielson $3,000-$10,000 17. Dennis van Ek $9,000 (by 2015) 18. Dominic Frisby $8,000 19. Paul Brodsky $8,000 20. James Turk $8,000 (by 2015) 21. Joseph Russo $7,000-$8,000 22. Bob Chapman $7,700 23. Michael Rozeff $2,865-$7,151 24. Jim Willie $7,000 25. Greg McCoach $6,500 26. Dylan Grice $6,300 27. Chris Mack $6,241.64 (by 2015) 28. Chuck DiFalco $6,214 (by 2018) 29. Jeff Clark $6,214 30. Aubie Baltin $6,200 (by 2017) 31. Murray Sabrin $6,153 32. Adam Hamilton $6,000+ 33. Samuel “Bud” Kress $6,000 (by 2014) 34. Robert Kientz $6,000 35. Harry Schultz $6,000 36. John Bougearel $6,000 37. David Tice $5,000-$6,000 38. Laurence Hunt $5,000-$6,000 (by 2019) 39. Taran Marwah $3,000-$6,000+ (by Dec. 2011 and Dec.2012, respectively) 40. Martin Hutchinson $3,100-$5,700 41. Stephen Leeb $5,500 (by 2015)Shamik Bhosesbhose@microsec.in ; shamikbhose@yahoo.com
  • Shamik Bhose Executive Director Commodity & Currency & Interest rate futures Markets Microsec Commerze Limited 42. Louise Yamada $5,200 43. Jeremy Charlesworth $5,000+ 44. Przemyslaw Radomski $5,000+ 45. Jason Hamlin $5,000+ 46. David McAlvany $5,000+Cumulative sub-total: 5733 Analysts Believe Gold Price Could Go As High As $5,000 1. David Rosenberg $5,000 2. James West $5,000 3. Doug Casey $5,000 4. Peter Cooper $5,000 5. Robert McEwen $5,000 (by 2012-2014) 6. Peter Krauth $5,000 7. Tim Iacono $5,000 (by 2017) 8. Christopher Wyke $5,000 9. Frank Barbera $5,000 10. John Lee $5,000 11. Barry Dawes $5,000 12. Bob Lenzer $5,000 (by 2015) 13. Steve Betts $5,000 14. Stewart Thomson $5,000 15. Charles Morris $5,000 (by 2015) 16. Marvin Clark $5,000 (by 2015) 17. Eric Sprott $5,000 18. Nathan Narusis $5,000 19. Bud Conrad $4,000-$5,000 20. Paul Mylchreest $4,000-$5,000 21. Pierre Lassonde $4,000$5,000 22. Willem Middelkoop $4,000-$5,000 23. Mary Anne and Pamela Aden $3,000-$5,000 (by February 2012) 24. James Dines $3,000-$5,000 25. Bill Murphy $3,000-$5,000 26. Bill Bonner $3,000-$5,000 27. Peter Degraaf $2,500-$5,000 28. Eric Janszen $2,500-$5,000 29. Larry Jeddeloh $2,300-$5,000 (by 2013) 30. Larry Edelson: $2,300-$5,000 (by 2015) 31. Luke Burgess $2,000-$5,000 32. Marc Faber $1,500-$5,000 33. Robert Lloyd-George $5,000 (by 2014) http://www.slideshare.net/shamikbhose http://in.linkedin.com/pub/shamik-bhose/4/159/700Shamik Bhosesbhose@microsec.in ; shamikbhose@yahoo.com
  • Shamik Bhose Executive Director Commodity & Currency & Interest rate futures Markets Microsec Commerze LimitedCumulative sub-total: 9031 Analysts Believe Gold Will Go Up to Between $3,000 and $4,999 1. David Moenning $4,525 2. Larry Reaugh $4,000+ 3. Ernest Kepper $4,000 4. Mike Knowles $4,000 5. Ian Gordon/Christopher Funston $4,000 6. Barry Elias $4,000 (by 2020) 7. Jay Taylor $3,000-$4,000 8. Christian Barnard $2,500-$4,000 9. John Paulson $2,400-$4,000 (by 2012) 10. Paul Tustain $3,844 11. Myles Zyblock $3,800 12. Eric Roseman $2,500-$3,500 (by 2015) 13. Christopher Wood $3,360 14. Franklin Sanders $3,130 15. John Henderson $3,000+ (by 2015-17) 16. Michael Berry $3,000+ (by 2015) 17. Hans Goetti $3,000 18. Michael Yorba $3,000 19. David Urban $3,000 20. Mitchell Langbert $3,000 21. Brett Arends $3,000 22. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard $3,000 23. John Williams $3,000 24. Byron King $3,000 25. Ron Paul $3,000 (by 2020) 26. Chris Weber $3,000 (by 2020) 27. Mark Leibovit $3,000 28. Mark O’Byrne $3,000 29. Kevin Kerr $3,000 30. Frank Holmes $3,000 31. Shamik Bhose $3,000 (by 2014)Cumulative sub-total: 12112 Analysts Believe Gold Will Go to Between $2,500 and $3,000 1. Ian McAvity $2,500-$3,000 (by 2012) 2. Jeff Nichols $2,000-$3,000 3. Graham French $2,000-$3,000 4. Bank of America Merrill Lynch $2,000-$3,000 5. Joe Foster $2,000-$3,000 (by 2019) 6. David Morgan $2,900 7. Sascha Opel $2,500+Shamik Bhosesbhose@microsec.in ; shamikbhose@yahoo.com
  • Shamik Bhose Executive Director Commodity & Currency & Interest rate futures Markets Microsec Commerze Limited 8. Rick Rule $2,500 (by 2013) 9. Daniel Brebner $2,500 10. James DiGeorgia $2,500 11. Peter Hambro $2,500 (by 2012) 12. Charles Nenner $2,500 (by 2012-13) Grand Total: 133 Conclusion There you have it. Who would have believed that 133 distinguished analysts would maintain that gold and by implication, silver, are likely to achieve such lofty levels as a result of the effects of our current financially troubled and volatile times? Their rationale is varied but each is sound in its own right. If we are to put any credence whatsoever into the rationale presented by the above analysts then it seems prudent to seriously consider owning some physical gold and silver and/or the stocks and/or long-term warrants of those companies that mine these precious metals. Gold Holdings by Exchange-Traded Funds as of Sept. 14’2011 – in troy ounces @ US$ Following is a table detailing known gold holdings by exchange-traded funds Current --Daily Change-- --Monthly Change-- Last Ounces Ounces % Ounces % Update================================================================================Worldwide 69,107,913 14,952 0.0% -953,200 -1.4% n/a--------------------------------------------------------------------------------SPDR 39,909,403 0 0.0% -606,427 -1.5% 9/14/2011ETF Securities 9,834,562 -2,124 0.0% -70,627 -0.7% 9/14/2011ZKB 6,564,991 0 0.0% -2,499 0.0% 9/2/2011iShares 5,420,349 17,076 0.3% 68,204 1.3% 9/13/2011Swiss & Global 3,263,792 0 0.0% -277,839 -7.8% 9/12/2011Central Fund CA 1,694,644 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 9/14/2011NewGold 1,455,747 0 0.0% -66,672 -4.4% 9/12/2011Central GoldTrust 610,832 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 9/14/2011Claymore 348,593 0 0.0% 2,660 0.8% 9/13/2011Dubai 5,000 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 9/14/2011 http://www.slideshare.net/shamikbhose http://in.linkedin.com/pub/shamik-bhose/4/159/700 Shamik Bhose sbhose@microsec.in ; shamikbhose@yahoo.com
  • Shamik Bhose Executive Director Commodity & Currency & Interest rate futures Markets Microsec Commerze Limited================================================================================ ----Yearly Change---- Fund holdings as a percent Ounces % of total gold held in ETFs:================================================================================Worldwide 2,259,710 3.4% 100.0%--------------------------------------------------------------------------------SPDR -1,845,027 -4.4% 57.7%ETF Securities 327,072 3.4% 14.2%ZKB 807,478 14.0% 9.5%iShares 2,293,366 73.3% 7.8%Swiss & Global 587,396 21.9% 4.7%Central Fund CA 190,410 12.7% 2.5%NewGold -99,650 -6.4% 2.1%Central GoldTrust 0 0.0% 0.9%Claymore -1,335 -0.4% 0.5%Dubai 0 0.0% 0.0%================================================================================NOTE: Figures are in troy ounces. Shamik Bhose Executive Director Commodity & Currency & Interest rate futures Markets Microsec Commerze Limited Www.microsec.in ; www.commoditylive.in Phones 009133-30512100 / 30512139 -40 Fax 009133 -30512020 http://www.slideshare.net/shamikbhose http://in.linkedin.com/pub/shamik-bhose/4/159/700 Shamik Bhose sbhose@microsec.in ; shamikbhose@yahoo.com