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Workplace Economy Slides September 2011 9.7.2011
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Workplace Economy Slides September 2011 9.7.2011

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  • Source: WhiteHouse.GovThe Employment Situation in AugustBy: Katharine Abraham Today’s employment report shows that private sector payrolls increased by 17,000 and overall payroll employment was flat in August. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1 percent, a level that remains unacceptably high. Despite a slowdown in economic growth from substantial headwinds experienced throughout the year, the economy has added private sector jobs for 18 straight months, for a total of 2.4 million jobs over that period.Clearly, faster growth is needed to replace the jobs lost in the downturn. Today’s report underscores the President’s call for Congress to pass a clean extension of the transportation bill to keep workers on the job and keep critical highway construction, bridge repair, mass transit and other important projects moving forward. Next week, the President will lay out a series of additional bipartisan steps that Congress can take immediately to put more money in the paychecks of working and middle class families; to make it easier for small businesses to hire workers; to put construction crews to work rebuilding our nation’s infrastructure; and other measures that will help the economy grow while still reducing our deficit and getting our fiscal house in order.Sectors with employment increases in August included health care and social assistance (+35,500) and professional and business services (+28,000). Sectors with employment declines included information (-48,000, which includes striking Verizon workers), construction (-5,000), and manufacturing (-3,000). Local government lost 20,000 jobs and has shed 398,000 jobs since February 2010. State government added 5,000 jobs as an estimated 22,000 furloughed Minnesota state workers returned to work. The monthly employment and unemployment numbers are volatile and employment estimates are subject to substantial revision. Therefore, as the Administration always stresses, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.
  • Source: BLS
  • Source: Economix.Blogs.NYTimes.comComparing Recessions and Recoveries: Job ChangesBy: Catharine RampellToday’s jobs report is nothing but bad news.The United States economy showed no net gain in jobs in August, the Labor Department reported, after having added an average of 53,000 in each of the three prior months. This was the worst jobs number since last September.Hiring was essentially unchanged in almost every private industry. The biggest gain was in health care, which added 30,000 jobs, but health care has been growing steadily despite what happens to the rest of the economy. Government employment continued to fall.The chart above shows economy wide job changes in this last recession and recovery compared with other recent ones, with the black line representing the most recent downturn. Since the downturn began in December 2007, the economy has shed, on balance, about 5 percent of its nonfarm payroll jobs. And that does not even account for the fact that the working-age population has continued to grow, meaning that if the economy were healthy we should have more jobs today than we had before the recession.The unemployment rate — measured by a different government survey, and based on how many people are without jobs but are actively looking for work — was unchanged in August, at 9.1 percent.There are now 14 million workers who are looking for work and cannot find it; the figure nearly doubles if you include workers who are in part-time jobs but want to be employed full time, and those who want to work but have stopped looking. A broader measure of the unemployment rate that includes these underemployed workers is 16.2 percent.
  • Source: Moody’s Analytics/DismalScientist.comThe number of unemployed people is declining as the Argentinean economy advances at a solid, although moderate pace. The unemployment rate was reported at 7.3% in the second quarter, after 7.4% in the previous period and 7.9% one year before.
  • Source: Moody’s Analytics/DismalScientist.comThe national unemployment rate averaged 7.5% in the May-July period, up from 7.2% in the previous moving quarter but down from 8.3% a year earlier. July’s labor market report implies a clear deterioration in the last month of the moving quarter (July), though conditions remain good. Recent strikes and massive student protests had a negative impact on July’s job creation figures. Yet the labor market remains in good shape and continues to generate a solid number of jobs. Expect the unemployment rate to remain close to current levels for the remainder of the year, as job creation slows compared with the first half.
  • Source: Moody’s Analytics/DismalScientist.comAnnual producer price growth in the euro zone picked up slightly in July. Producer prices grew 6.1% y/y, up from 5.9% in June. The sole driver was stronger growth of energy prices. Producer price growth will start to weaken again in the coming months but remain elevated.
  • Source: Moody’s Analytics/DismalScientist.comSouth Korean consumer prices accelerated to 5.3% on a year-ago basis in August, from 4.7% in July. Higher food prices led the acceleration in August after floods and landslides around Seoul in July caused significant damage to crops.
  • Source: Moody’s Analytics/DismalScientist.comSpanish real retail sales fell 6% in year-ago terms in July, following a 7.6% drop in the previous month. Retail sales will be weak in the coming months on elevated unemployment and the ongoing downward correction in property prices.
  • Source: Moody’s Analytics/DismalScientist.comU.K. consumer confidence fell further in August. The headline GfK NOP measure slipped to -31, from -30 in July. Household consumer spending will remain subdued through 2011 amid sharp fiscal tightening and lingering job security concerns. Combined with expectations of slowing exports and weaker industrial activity, the outlook for the economy this year is downbeat.

Transcript

  • 1. U.S. Economic Data
    As of September 2011
    Reflective of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation – August 2011
  • 2. JOBS GAINED IN AUGUST
    0
    UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
    9.1%
    WORST UNEMPLOYMENT
    RATE SINCE
    1983
    *Current recession excluded
    August employment figures surprise government officials and economists
  • 3. Unemployment rate remains at 9.1%
    Source: BLS
  • 4. For the first time since 1945, the government reports
    a monthly net job change of zero
    Source: CNNMoney.com
  • 5. Private payroll employment figures
    Source: WhiteHouse.Gov
  • 6. United States jobless claims
    ere
    Source: DismalScientist.com
  • 7. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index continues to decrease
    Source: DismalScientist.com
  • 8. Sector changes observed in August
    Source: BLS
  • 9. Education remains a job search differentiator in August…
    Source: BLS
  • 10. A Snapshot of Metropolitan Unemployment Figures
    Source: BLS
  • 11. United States Consumer Price Index percentage changes
    Source: DismalScientist.com
  • 12. A comparison between United States recessions and recoveries: nonfarm payroll job changes
    Horizontal axis shows months. Vertical axis shows the ratio of that month’s nonfarm payrolls to the nonfarm payrolls at the start of recession. Note: Because employment is a lagging indicator, the dates for these employment trends are not exactly synchronized with National Bureau of Economic Research’s official business cycle dates.
    Source: Economix.Blogs.NYTimes.com
  • 13. In summary
    Job growth stalls, unemployment rate remains the same…
    Opportunities
    • The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1%.
    • 14. The healthcare industry continued to hire; employment within the industry rose by 30,000 in August.
    • 15. The mining industry continued to hire as well while adding 6,000 new jobs in August alone.
    Weaknesses
    • The government reported a monthly net job change of zero for the first time since 1945.
    • 16. 13.9 million Americans are currently unemployed – 42.9 percent of such individuals have been without work for more than six months.
    • 17. The nation’s Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate remains low; it is currently 64%.
  • Global Economic Data
    As of July and August 2011
  • 18. Argentina’s employment situation
    Source: DismalScientist.com
  • 19. Brazil’s GDP
    Source: DismalScientist.com
  • 20. Chile’s employment situation
    Source: DismalScientist.com
  • 21. Euro Zone’s Producer Price Index
    Source: DismalScientist.com
  • 22. France’s employment situation
    Source: DismalScientist.com
  • 23. Germany’s GDP
    Source: DismalScientist.com
  • 24. India’s foreign trade
    Source: DismalScientist.com
  • 25. Peru’s Consumer Price Index
    Source: DismalScientist.com
  • 26. Philippines GDP
    Source: DismalScientist.com
  • 27. South Korea's Consumer Price Index
    Source: DismalScientist.com
  • 28. Spain's retail sales
    Source: DismalScientist.com
  • 29. United Kingdom's consumer confidence
    Source: DismalScientist.com