1. Geography, Income, and Voters
Explanations and Implications
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
Why Americans Vote the Way They Do
Andrew Gelman
Dept of Statistics and Dept of Political Science, Columbia University
8 June 2009
1/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

2. Geography, Income, and Voters
Explanations and Implications
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
The Book
2/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

3. Geography, Income, and Voters
Explanations and Implications
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Polarization: The Red and the Blue
3/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

4. Geography, Income, and Voters
Explanations and Implications
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Polarization: The Haves and Have-Nots
4/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

5. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
The New Upscale Democratic Party?
5/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

6. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Red and Blue States
2004 election
6/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

7. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Rich States are More Democratic . . .
Republican vote by state in 2004
UT
70% WY
ID
NE
OK
Vote share for George Bush
ND KS AK
AL
SD IN TX
MS MT SCKY
GA
WV LA TN NC
AR AZ
MO VA
FL CO
50%
NV
NM IA OH WI PA NH
OR MI MN
DE WA NJ
ME HI IL CA CT
MD
VT RI NY
MA
30%
$20,000 $30,000
Average income within state
7/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

8. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
. . . But Rich People are More Republican!
Bush vote in 2004 by income 2006 House exit polls
70%
70%
South
Vote share for Bush
Republican vote share
Midwest
50%
50%
West
Northeast
30%
30%
0 $100,000 $200,000 low middle high
Individual income Income
8/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

9. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
David Brooks and Maryland
“Like upscale areas everywhere, from
Silicon Valley to Chicago’s North Income and voting in Maryland counties
100%
Shore to suburban Connecticut,
Montgomery County supported
Vote share for George Bush
75%
the Democratic ticket by a margin
of 63 percent to 34 percent.”
50%
“In Red America churches are
everywhere. In Blue America
25%
Montgomery
Thai restaurants are everywhere.
In Red America they have QVC, Baltimore
0%
the Pro Bowlers Tour, and hunting. $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000
In Blue America we have NPR, Median household income within county
Doris Kearns Goodwin, and socially
conscious investing.”
9/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

10. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Starbucks and Walmart
Wal−Marts per capita Starbucks per capita
10/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

11. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Counterexample: Texas
Income and voting in Texas counties
100%
Vote share for George Bush
75%
Collin
50%
Austin
25%
Zavala
0%
$20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000
Median household income within county
11/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

12. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
The Key to the Answer: Context Matters
How wealthy you are is associated with how you vote (and
think)
But how much it does depends on where you live — context
matters
In some states the rich are very different from the poor but not
in other states
Texas and Maryland
12/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

13. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Anna Karenina and the Paradox Resolved
McCain vote by income in a poor, middle−income, and rich state
75%
Miss.
Probability of voting for McCain
Ohio
50%
Conn.
25%
(poor) (rich)
Voter's income
13/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

14. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
What if Only X Voted?
14/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

15. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
How Some Journalists See the Country
“One of the Republican Party’s major successes over the last
few decades has been to persuade many of the working poor
to vote for tax breaks for billionaires.” — Nicholas Kristof,
New York Times columnist
“Who are the trustfunders? People with enough money not to
have to work for a living, or not to have to work very hard.
These people tend to be very liberal politically. . . . ” —
Michael Barone, author of the Almanac of American Politics
15/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

16. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
The New Working-Class Republicans?
16/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

17. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Whassup with Kansas?
Kansas
80% 2004
Kansas
2000
Vote for Bush
60%
40%
low mid high
Individual income
17/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

18. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Pauline Kael and Availability Bias
“I can’t believe Nixon won. I don’t
know anybody who voted for him.”
— attributed to Pauline Kael,
movie critic for the New Yorker
Availability bias: the tendency to
generalize based on nearby
information
18/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

19. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Michael Barone and Availability Bias
“It evidently irritates many liberal
liberals to point out that their
People
party gets heavy support from you know
superaffluent ‘people of fashion’
and does not run very well
among ‘the common people.’”
The average poor
— Michael Barone rich
American
Second-order availability bias:
generalizing from observed
correlations People you
don't know ??
The people you know are
high-income and vote conservative
Democratic. Therefore . . .
19/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

20. Geography, Income, and Voters
The Paradox
Explanations and Implications
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
Polarization is real
Entire U.S. Voters House
Senate
(liberal) (conservative)
Ideological Position
20/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

21. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
30 Years Ago, Things Were Different
Republican vote by state in 1976
1976 election
70%
Vote share for Gerald Ford
UT
ID NE WY
AZ
VT NH CO
MT
ND IN KS MI NVCT
50%
NM ME WA NJ
IL CA
SD OK VA OHOR
IA
MS TX
MO WIPA HI
KYLA FL DENY
MD
NC
AL TN
SC RI MN
WV MA
AR
GA
30%
$15,000 $20,000
Average income within state
21/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

22. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Incomplete Explanations for the Change in State Vote
Is it rich people who are changing?
No. We showed that in the beginning.
Is it race?
Mostly no. Excluding blacks from the analysis diminishes the
effects we see only partly.
Is it the South?
No. We see the effects in the South and outside of it.
Is it inequality?
No. Interstate income inequality has changed little, and
intrastate income inequality is more tied to immigration trends.
22/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

23. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Our Explanation I
The poor are similar in Red and Blue America, but the rich are
different.
We’ve looked at voting.
Now look at attitudes on economic and social issues.
23/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

24. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Economic and Social Attitudes of Rich and Poor
Average ideologies of different groups of voters
conservative
Middle
Republican States
Poor voters
Rich voters
Average score on social issues
Middle
Poor voters
Battleground States
moderate
Poor voters Rich voters
Middle
Democratic States
liberal
Rich voters
liberal moderate conservative
Average score on economic issues 24/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

25. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Our Explanation II
Voters haven’t changed within states—and states haven’t
changed much either, but parties have.
Parties are more polarized than they’ve ever been.
Democratic and Republican voters are (slightly) more
ideologically distinct
Positions by elites are more uniform than they’ve been in the
past. The end of Rockefeller Republicans and Blue Dog
Democrats.
Wealthy people in rich, blue states are conflicted in their party
choice; hence the flat slope. Wealthy people in poor, red states
are not conflicted in their party choice; hence the high slope.
25/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

26. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Culture Wars and Polarization
“Sometimes I think this country
would be better off if we could just
saw off the Eastern Seaboard and
let it float out to sea.” — Barry
Goldwater
“People, I just want to say, you
know, can we all get along?” —
Rodney King
26/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

27. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
“Opiate of the Masses” vs. “Postmaterialism”
“I don’t know that atheists should be considered citizens, nor
should they be considered patriots. This is one nation under
God.” — George H. W. Bush
“Very few of us . . . could name even five NASCAR drivers,
although stock-car races are the best-attended sporting events
in the country.” — David Brooks
Two theories:
Opiate of the masses: Rich people vote their interests, poor
people vote “Gods, guns, and gays.”
Postmaterialism: Poor people vote based on economics, rich
people have the luxury to vote on social issues.
27/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

28. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
“Opiate” No, “Postmaterialism” Yes
Bush vote in 2004 by income and religious attendance
70%
if you attend church more
Probability of voting for Bush
than once/week
60%
if you attend once
or twice/month
50%
if you never
attend church
40%
poor middle−income rich
28/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

29. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Similar Patterns in Red and Blue America
Republican States Battleground States Democratic States
regular church
0.75
regular church
occasional regular church
church
Pr(Bush)
occasional
0.50
church
occasional
never church church
never church
0.25
never church
Low Middle High Low Middle High Low Middle High
Income Income Income 29/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

30. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Economic/Social Ideology and Income/Relig Attend, by State
Economic ideology and income Economic ideology and religious attendance
MS
0.2
AR AL
LAOK
Within−state correlation
WV UT SDNC
SC TN GA
KY TX
NM ND IANE MI
KS
MO
IN FL
OH
MTID AZ WY DE ILCO
WI
RI MN
ME OR PAVACA MD
0.1
WA
VT NV NHNY MA CT VT NH WA
MEMT
OR
NV AZ ID NM
CA WYFLWI WV OK
MA CO RIDE IANE SDTNAR MS
NY OH ND UT
MI INKS KYLAAL
PA MOGANC
CT MDMN TX SC
ILVA
−0.1 0.0
Social ideology and income Social ideology and religious attendance
VT MT
OR
NH WA CO ID
ME
NV CAAZ RI
WYFL
MA NY NMMIA
0.2
WI ND
OH WV
Within−state correlation
MI IN UT
DE N KSOK
PA MOTX
IL
CT MD VANEGASDTNAR
NCSC
KYLAAL
MS
0.1
MS
AR
WV AL
LA
UT
OK
SC TN
KY
NM ID SDNC
0.0
ND IAKS
MO
INTX
GA
OH
MT ME NE MI
FL
WI
WY VA
AZ OR NVMN
VT RI DE ILCO
PA WANH
CA MD
−0.1
MA
NY CT
$25,000 $35,000 2.5 3.0 3.5
State income State religious attendance 30/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

31. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Takeaway Points
Polarization, stereotyping, and the red-blue divide
Statistics is too important to be left to the statisticians!
What’s the matter with Connecticut?
If you want to understand the differences between states, study
the wealthy.
The culture war is real but is concentrated among
upper-income voters.
It’s easy to get confused: “media center” states don’t look like
the rest of the country.
31/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

32. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
End—Time for Your Questions
32/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

33. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Putting It Together
Rich−state, poor−state gap in Republican vote
among poor, middle−income, and rich voters
20%
Republican vote in poor states, minus
r s
Republican vote in rich states
te
vo
e
om
nc
−i
10%
gh
rs
Hi
te
vo
e
m
inco
le−
idd
M oters
me v
0%
inco
Low−
1952−1968 1972−1988 1992−2004
33/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

34. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Race Explains Half the Pattern
Whites only: Rich−state, poor−state gap in Republican vote
among poor, middle−income, and rich voters
20%
Republican vote in poor states, minus
rs
te
Republican vote in rich states
vo
r s
e
te
it
vo
wh
ite
e
wh
om
10%
e
nc
om
−i
nc
gh
e −i
Hi
dl rs
id ote
M ev
hit
ew
c om
−in
0%
w
Lo
1952−1968 1972−1988 1992−2004
34/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

35. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Religion and State Income
MS
3.5
Average State Religious Attendance
AR AL
LA SC TN
UTKY
OK NC
SD GA
TX
KS
NE
WV ND MO
IAIN
3.0
VA MN
OH PA
WI IL
MI DE
NM FL MD
ID RI NJ
WY
CT
AZ CO NY
MT CA
OR WA MA
2.5
ME NV
NH
VT
$25,000 $35,000
Average State Income
35/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

36. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Inequality in the States
States with high and low income inequality
36/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

37. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Polarized Parties: Foreign Policy
Partisan disagreement over the Iraq war
100%
Percentage supporting the war
Republicans
75%
50%
Independents
25%
Democrats
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006
37/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

38. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Polarized Parties: Foreign Policy
Support for Korean war Support for Vietnam war
100%
Percentage supporting the war
75%
Democrats
Democrats
50%
Republicans Republicans
25%
0%
1951 1952 1966 1968 1970
38/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

39. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Polarized Parties: Domestic Policy
39/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

40. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Polarization in Red, Purple, and Blue States
Republican
Voters
states Senate
House
Battleground
Voters
states
House
Senate
Senate
Democratic
states
Voters
House
(liberal) (conservative)
Ideological Position
40/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

41. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Other Countries: Income and Voting
Asia and Oceania
25%
South Korea
Conservative vote share among rich, minus conservative vote share among poor
Australia
Taiwan
New Zealand Japan
0
Hong Kong
Israel
Europe
25%
Czech Finland
Poland
Romania Sweden
Bulgaria Spain ItalyGermany Denmark
Netherlands Norway
Slovenia United Kingdom Iceland
0
Ukraine
Russia Portugal Belgium Switzerland
Hungary
France Ireland
North and South America
25%
Peru
United States
Chile
Mexico Canada
0
Brazil
0 20,000 40,000
GDP per capita
41/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

42. Geography, Income, and Voters Explanations
Explanations and Implications Opiate of the Elites
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Supplementary Data
Other Countries: Income, Religion, and Voting
Ukraine Bulgaria Russia Romania Brazil
25%
−25% 0
Poland Hungary Czech Mexico Slovenia
25%
−25% 0
Conservative vote, compared to national average
Portugal Korea New Zealand Israel Italy
25%
−25% 0
Belgium Australia France Germany Netherlands
25%
−25% 0
Britain Ireland Sweden Hong Kong Denmark
25%
−25% 0
Iceland Switzerland Norway United States Japan
25%
−25% 0
Poor Rich Poor Rich Poor Rich Poor Rich Poor Rich
42/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

43. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Election 2008: What Really Happened?
National election returns
State-by-state election returns
Race, age, income
Pre-election polls
Congressional elections
43/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

44. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Obama Did as Well as Expected
Forecasting elections from the economy
Income growth Incumbent party’s share of the popular vote
Johnson vs. Goldwater (1964) more than 4%
Reagan vs. Mondale (1984)
Nixon vs. McGovern (1972) 3% to 4%
Humphrey vs. Nixon (1968)
Eisenhower vs. Stevenson (1956)
Stevenson vs. Eisenhower (1952)
2% to 3%
Gore vs. Bush, Jr. (2000)
Bush, Sr. vs. Dukakis (1988)
Bush, Jr. vs. Kerry (2004)
Ford vs. Carter (1976) 1% to 2%
Clinton vs. Dole (1996)
Nixon vs. Kennedy (1960)
0% to 1%
Bush, Sr. vs. Clinton (1992)
Carter vs. Reagan (1980) negative
45% 50% 55% 60%
44/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

45. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
The Polls Did Well
45/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

46. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
National Partisan Swing
46/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

47. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Swings are More National Than Before
47/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

48. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Whites and Minorities
48/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

49. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Young and Old
49/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

50. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Rich and Poor
50/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

51. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Rich and Poor, by State
51/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

52. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Religious and Secular
52/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

53. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Comparing votes for President and Congress
53/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State

54. Geography, Income, and Voters Election Returns
Explanations and Implications Demographics
Election 2008: What Really Happened? Congressional Elections
Further Questions?
54/54
Andrew Gelman Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State