Telecommunications Industry: Trends, Challenges & Opportunities Dr. Sayeed Ghani IBA, Center for Computer Studies 15 th December, 2007

Overview Market Trends Technology Trends Challenges/Opportunities

Market Trends

Technology Trends

Challenges/Opportunities

Tech Stocks Have Outperformed S&P500 YTD… Although Tech Stocks underperformed market in 6 of last 7 years Tech stocks outperformed the market in 2007

Although Tech Stocks underperformed market in 6 of last 7 years

Tech stocks outperformed the market in 2007

Telecomm Industry $1.5 Trillion global revenues Telecommunication Equipment: $70B Worldwide Spending

$1.5 Trillion global revenues

Telecommunication Equipment: $70B Worldwide Spending

Pakistan Mobile Industry Growth in Subscribers

Worldwide Growth: Fixedline vs. Mobile Telephone and Internet Users Worldwide (Millions)

Private ownership worldwide 1991 – 2007

ICTs become more available But disparities persist between regions … Penetration of major ICTs by region, 2005

International Internet Traffic and Capacity, 2003-2008

Voice over IP Growth in number of worldwide VoIP subscribers was about 90% in 2006

Growth in number of worldwide VoIP subscribers was about 90% in 2006

Optical Networking Breakthrough! Capacity Increase & reduction in costs

Data Explosion Storage Data is increasing at a staggering rate: World wide data stored on computer hard disks is increasing at a rate of 30%; about 10 Exabytes (10 18 ) each year – equivalent to about 70,000 libraries of congress, each with 17 million books! Accounting for a $70 B industry.

Storage Data is increasing at a staggering rate:

World wide data stored on computer hard disks is increasing at a rate of 30%; about 10 Exabytes (10 18 ) each year – equivalent to about 70,000 libraries of congress, each with 17 million books! Accounting for a $70 B industry.

Changing Characteristics: Hello Social Networking!

New Traffic Characteristics

Market Trends Technology Trends Challenges/Opportunities

Market Trends

Technology Trends

Challenges/Opportunities

Convergence - Industry

Mobile/Wireless Trends

Wireless technologies target segments.

802.16 Fixed WiMax / 802.11

802.16e Mobile WiMax

The Wireless Vision: A Disappearing Technology An example: The light bulb Penetration Time Exclusive ” Everyone” has it Vanishing technology In almost every home Why isn’t there an outlet here? In a few homes 1900 1950 2000

Overview Market Trends Technology Trends Challenges/Opportunities

Market Trends

Technology Trends

Challenges/Opportunities

Technology vs. Privacy Location Tracking Mobile phone can spy even when off: Roving bug!

Technology vs. Privacy

Location Tracking

Mobile phone can spy even when off: Roving bug!

Pakistan: Progress in ICT The Telecom Industry – phenomenal growths: Attracting one of the highest Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan Deregulation of the telecom sector Six mobile companies 14 LDI & 18 WLL companies cutting edge new services at lower costs number of cell phone subscribers from 0.2 million to about 70 million (last 7 years) The Internet Industry – phenomenal changes: The number of cities connected to the Internet: from 29 to about 2400. Tariffs for PTCL’s International Internet bandwidths: from US$87,000 to US$1,000 per month for a 2MB circuit. number of Internet users: from 200,000 to over 12 million.

The Telecom Industry – phenomenal growths:

Attracting one of the highest Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan

Deregulation of the telecom sector

Six mobile companies

14 LDI & 18 WLL companies

cutting edge new services at lower costs

number of cell phone subscribers from 0.2 million to about 70 million (last 7 years)

The Internet Industry – phenomenal changes:

The number of cities connected to the Internet: from 29 to about 2400.

Tariffs for PTCL’s International Internet bandwidths: from US$87,000 to US$1,000 per month for a 2MB circuit.

number of Internet users: from 200,000 to over 12 million.

Growth of ICT Usage Banking Sector Focus on Technology – competitive edge Numbers of ATMs in Pakistan: tripled in the last 5 years to around 1500 ATMs across 30 major cities ATM networks: 1 Link and MNET The number of online branches in Pakistan: from 400 in 1999 to 2,000+ at present E-enabled plastic cards in banks: from 0.3 million in 1999 to over 4 million

Banking Sector

Focus on Technology – competitive edge

Numbers of ATMs in Pakistan: tripled in the last 5 years to around 1500 ATMs across 30 major cities

ATM networks: 1 Link and MNET

The number of online branches in Pakistan: from 400 in 1999 to 2,000+ at present

E-enabled plastic cards in banks: from 0.3 million in 1999 to over 4 million

Issues & Opportunities Network Readiness Index Network Readiness Index Pakistan Ranked 67/115 in 2005 and now down to 84/122 in 2006/07 Pakistan still categorized in the Low Access Category Total Teledensity in Pakistan at ~ 45% However rural Teledensity ~ 1% The BPO industry E.g. Call Centers, data processing, MT $150+ bn (India has over $10 bn share growing at 70%) Potential to provide large scale job opportunities

Network Readiness Index

Network Readiness Index Pakistan Ranked 67/115 in 2005 and now down to 84/122 in 2006/07

Pakistan still categorized in the Low Access Category

Total Teledensity in Pakistan at ~ 45%

However rural Teledensity ~ 1%

The BPO industry

E.g. Call Centers, data processing, MT

$150+ bn (India has over $10 bn share growing at 70%)

Potential to provide large scale job opportunities

Thank You!