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Digital In A Downturn Broadcast Asia2009 Fina
Digital In A Downturn Broadcast Asia2009 Fina
Digital In A Downturn Broadcast Asia2009 Fina
Digital In A Downturn Broadcast Asia2009 Fina
Digital In A Downturn Broadcast Asia2009 Fina
Digital In A Downturn Broadcast Asia2009 Fina
Digital In A Downturn Broadcast Asia2009 Fina
Digital In A Downturn Broadcast Asia2009 Fina
Digital In A Downturn Broadcast Asia2009 Fina
Digital In A Downturn Broadcast Asia2009 Fina
Digital In A Downturn Broadcast Asia2009 Fina
Digital In A Downturn Broadcast Asia2009 Fina
Digital In A Downturn Broadcast Asia2009 Fina
Digital In A Downturn Broadcast Asia2009 Fina
Digital In A Downturn Broadcast Asia2009 Fina
Digital In A Downturn Broadcast Asia2009 Fina
Digital In A Downturn Broadcast Asia2009 Fina
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Digital In A Downturn Broadcast Asia2009 Fina

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End of days for TV? Following an opportunity to particpate in BroadcastAsia last week here in Singapore, I took a gander on making a few predictions on what was in store for Asia given trends in …

End of days for TV? Following an opportunity to particpate in BroadcastAsia last week here in Singapore, I took a gander on making a few predictions on what was in store for Asia given trends in television and the onset of online, interactive alternatives:

1) Asia will leverage its broadband roll-out in order to be among the world’s first in delivering new video-telecom, e-government, and energy-management services

2) A new breed of interactive programming that combines gaming with television-style drama will dominate the Korean and Japanese entertainment landscape

3) China will struggle with these changes; intermittently clamping down then opening up, before the real revolution in digital media takes off

4) Indian software developers will unfurl new concepts in virtual (re: “cloud”) computing that lead to server and network optimization and higher levels of operational efficiency

5) Asian broadcast & cable operators will be vying for a place alongside the telecommunications’ companies who start offering bundled voice, broadband and interactive entertainment services

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  • 1. Digital in a Downturn Broadcasting at a Crossroads Steve Stine June 2009 Human Capital Management Talent Retention Leadership Consulting 0
  • 2. The Future of TV? Predicting the demise of TV is nothing new… “By all measures, TV was a superb technology for its time. Indeed, its presence and properties defined the time. But now its time is over. The television age is giving way to the much richer, interactive technologies of the computer age.” - George Gilder (Life After Television, 1994) ”The growth of personal computers is happening so rapidly that the future open-architecture television is the PC, period…In other words, there is no TV-set industry in the future. It is nothing ore or less than a computer industry; displays filled with tons of memory and lots of processing power.” - Nicholas Negroponte (Being Digital, 1995) Yet, TV hangs on…and some would argue, even thrives in a climate loaded with new media and gadgetry… 0000000 1
  • 3. Television Perceptions Through Time “Television is chewing gum for the eyes.” - Frank Lloyd Wright (American architect and commentator) ”Pictures are for entertainment, messages should be delivered by Western Union.” - A. Samuel Goldwyn (American film producer) “The media is too concentrated, too few people own too much. There's really five companies that control 90 percent of what we read, see and hear. It's not healthy.” - Ted Turner (media mogul) “Television is more interesting than people. If it were not, we would have people standing in the corners of our rooms.” - Alan Corenk (comedian) “Television is an anesthetic for the pain of the modern world.” - unknown “Whoever controls the media, controls the mind.” - Jim Morrison (musician) 0000000 2
  • 4. Is the Sun Setting on Television? The TV industry is still rife with commercial and technical issues: Broadcast & Cable operators still control the content levers The advertising model is geared to encourage TV spend above and beyond all other mediums Interactivity is technologically limited and commercially discouraged User interface (re: the remote control) is clumsy and obsolete Operators are reluctant to aggressively bundle add-ons such as consoles, sling boxes, or others, concerned that consumers will reduce standard viewing 0000000 3
  • 5. The Broadcast & Cable Providers’ Quandary How do I drive How can I anticipate How do I grow my service & channel fickle viewer tastes advertising revenue loyalty? & preferences? base? What service How can I ensure bundles are most that consumer free attractive to each time is spent consumer segment watching TV? and why? What can I do to What kind of new How do I balance counter growing media strategy distribution charges consumer interest in could best reinforce against household Web video & regular viewership? penetration? programming? 0000000 4
  • 6. The New Paradigm Three interdependent phenomenon are aligning to produce a new culture of entertainment wants & needs 1. Content – traditionally generated by a small group of media elite is giving way to an increasing amount of independent and user-generated product CONTENT 2. Bandwidth – the lynchpin to Web video – is expanding at a record pace, driving user adoption of Web video 3. Community – Facebook, Linked-in, Twitter, and many other Internet sub- BANDWIDTH COMMUNITY cultures are demonstrating the “power of the collective” and challenging the status quo 0000000 5
  • 7. Content Six primary applications are driving change: 1. YouTube is the single largest source for video viewing on the Web, representing 40+ percent of all Web video viewing 2. Video Conferencing will explode as the killer application in coming years. 3. Amateur Video from more than 500 million digital camera owners around the world who take, store, and share digital photos and video on their PCs 4. Motion Pictures - Netflix, Blockbuster, Apple, Hulu, and many others are creating new, inexpensive and alternative means of delivering HD-quality films to TVs, PCs, and mobile phones 5. Online Gaming, underpinned by new graphic processing power, global gamers represent a fast-growing and heavy-user segment 6. IPTV, backed by telcos who see the writing on the wall, less they invest now and diversify away from basic voice communication services. 0000000 6
  • 8. Bandwidth “The U.S. Internet of 2015 will be at least 50 times larger than it was in 2006… These changes will entail a total new investment of some US$137 billion in the worldwide Internet infrastructure by 2010.” - “Estimating the Exaflood” Discovery Institute, Jan 2008 “The number of servers in the U.S. nearly quintupled from 1997 to 2007.” - International Herald Tribune, June 15, 2009 “More than 200 million users have uploaded more than 15 billion photos, making Facebook the world’s largest photo-sharing service.” - International Herald Tribune, June 15, 2009 Apple sold nearly US$1.9 billion in movie and music content on iTunes in 2008 - BusinessWeek, June 3, 2009 0000000 7
  • 9. Community Online communities may be the greatest social force to be unleashed on the human race since the advent of modern transportation The world is “flat,” but there are well- springs of interest groups, fan clubs, and social movements that are gaining influence and altering behaviors Increasingly, social networks will form the backbone of content development, distribution and prioritization Human beings are “tribal” by nature, and will therefore be inclined toward and influenced by their digital communities as real-time access and quality of communication improves 0000000 8
  • 10. The Evolutionary Impact An inevitable shift will occur toward “interactive” mediums as they become increasingly user-friendly and easily accessible New content development models will emerge that are dynamic vs. static in nature High Definition (HD) services will delay the shift to interactive mediums and devices, but it will not be able to prevent it News & entertainment choices will be made in line with community trends and recommendations 0000000 9
  • 11. The Inevitability of Multi-Channel Digital Distribution Infrastructure & Regulatory Advances Content providers & distributors are are driving change and growth… defending against commercial change… Telecom Service Providers are expanding Content Providers say pirating and revenue bandwidth to the home and office cannibalization prevent them from making changes or deploying digital Technologists are innovating and improving graphic processing and social media technologies Advertisers & Media Buyers prefer the high- margin, low-risk traditional media channel and Governments are promoting lower prices and deplore the low-margin, high-risk digital mediums universal access to broadband and 3G mobile services Marketers - who hold the advertising purse strings – remain conservative and risk averse Private Equity firms are seeing new bandwidth- driven business opportunities and backing Consumers erroneously believe that all content infrastructure and service deployment can and should be made available free-of-charge Neophytes are responding to new, easy-to-use Device Manufacturers would rather “control” technologies that offer simple access to digital media access as opposed to promoting open content standards and open platforms 0000000 10
  • 12. Control 0000000 11
  • 13. Choice 0000000 12
  • 14. Asia Trends Japanese broadband is the world’s fastest and cheapest Korea has the highest broadband penetration in the world Singapore is embarking on a state-of-the-art nationwide roll-out of high-speed networks China is the fastest growing internet market in the world 0000000 13
  • 15. Asia Predictions Asia will leverage its broadband roll-out in order to be among the world’s first in delivering new video-telecom, e-government, and energy-management services A new breed of interactive programming that combines gaming with television-style drama will dominate the Korean and Japanese entertainment landscape China will struggle with these changes; intermittently clamping down then opening up, before the real revolution in digital media takes off Indian software developers will unfurl new concepts in virtual (re: “cloud”) computing that lead to server and network optimization and higher levels of operational efficiency Asian broadcast & cable operators will be vying for a place alongside the telecommunications’ companies who start offering bundled voice, broadband and interactive entertainment services 0000000 14
  • 16. Injecting New Talent into Old Business Models Investors who understand the fast-moving dynamics of an internet world must lend their experience and expertise in infusing old media and telcos with capital and talent Traditional media companies will need to recruit and incentivize business development and strategy leaders to generate new multi-platform products and services designed to delight customers on all fronts Regional telcos will need to hire talent from new and old media companies in order to infuse their traditional “service” and “infrastructure” businesses with people who offer “new” ways of thinking and behaving Asian corporate leaders must assume greater risk and experimentation in order to test a vast array of new digital media-related revenue opportunities 0000000 15
  • 17. Serving clients from 60 cities around the world 0000000 16

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