Taf Pine Bridge Serkan Elden Speech


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Turk Arap Forum- Istanbul, Turkey, June 2011

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Taf Pine Bridge Serkan Elden Speech

  1. 1. The New Championsof the Capital World Serkan ELDEN Turkish Arab Economic Forum Istanbul April 26 & 27, 2011Neither PineBridge Investments (Turkey) Ltd. nor PineBridge Investments Partners LLC or any other company within the PineBridge Investments group of companies (collectively, the “PineBridge InvestmentsGroup”) is licensed to provide investment advisory, marketing or portfolio management in Turkey. This presentation is for general informational purposes only, and is not intended nor shall it be interpreted as anoffer, solicitation or recommendation for investors in any vehicle or product advised by the PineBridge Investments Group nor for advisory services by the PineBridge Investments Group as may be contemplatedby the Turkish Commercial Code and the Turkish Code of Obligations, the Capital Markets Laws and the “Communiqué Regarding the Principles on Venture Capital Investment Trusts” of the Capital Markets Boardof Turkey, or otherwise with respect to the offer, purchase or sale of any security or financial product. No person should act or refrain from acting in reliance on any information provided in thispresentation. Statements of facts and opinions expressed are those of the speaker individually and are not the opinion or position of the PineBridge Investments Group. No undertaking, representation orwarranty, whether express or implied, is given by the PineBridge Investments Group, their shareholders, advisors or any of their directors, partners, officers, employees or agents as to the accuracy orcompleteness of the information presented.Any opinion expressed in this presentation may be subject to change without notice. We are not soliciting or recommending any action based on this material. Investment information and comments statedhere, are not within the scope of investment advisory activity. Investment advisory services is provided in accordance with a contract of engagement for such services and concluded between brokerage houses,portfolio management companies, non-deposit banks and clients. Comments and recommendations stated here rely on the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations.These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk and return preferences. For this reason, to make an investment decision by relying solely on the information stated here may not bring about outcomes that fit yourexpectations.
  2. 2. The New Champions of the Capital World Source: http://www.ancient-wisdom.co.uk/pirireismap.htm1
  3. 3. World EU US China Gateway Turkey, Middle East, Africa, Russia/Central Asia2
  4. 4. Population and GDP EU Pop (mn) GDP (US$ tr) CAGR CAGR $16 0% 501 4% 469 $7.0 US 1990 2009 1990 2009 Pop (mn) GDP (US$ tr) GATEWAY CAGR Pop (mn) GDP (US$ tr) CAGR ASI ASIA1 1% $14 5% CAGR249 307 Pop (mn) GDP (US$ tr) 2% 1,4 CAGR $4.9 $5.8 6% 924 CAGR 1% 2,48 $1.5 1,98 CAGR $6.2 11%1990 2009 1990 2009 1990 2009 1990 2009 $0.7 1990 2009 1990 2009 1Asiaincludes China and India Source: IMF, World Bank, January 2011. CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate. 3
  5. 5. Foreign Direct Investment - Net Inflows (US $Bn) EU CAGR $221 3% US $165 CAGR -9% $321 2000 2009 ASI ASIA1 $134 GATEWAY CAGR CAGR $112 12% 2000 2009 25% $102 $41 $14 2000 2009 2000 2009 1Asia includes China and India Source: Eurostat, World Bank. January 2011. CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate.4
  6. 6. World Wealth EU HNWI Population (mn) HNWI Wealth (US$ tr) AMERICAS 15% 3.0 7% 9.5HNWI Population (mn) HNWI Wealth (US$ tr) 2.6 8.9 20% 34% 3.6 17.4 ASI ASIA 3.0 13.0 HNWI Population (mn) HNWI Wealth (US$ tr) 2004 2009 2004 2009 36% 37% 3.0 9.7 2.2 7.1 2004 2009 2004 2009 GATEWAY1 HNWI Population (mn) HNWI Wealth (US$ tr) 2004 2009 2004 2009 50% 33% 1.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 2004 2009 2004 2009 1Gateway Region includes Middle East Source: World Wealth Report 2007 and 2010 of Capgemini and Merrill Lynch. HNWI – High Net Worth Individual. 5
  7. 7. Sovereign Wealth Funds Regional - 20101 Regional Top 10 Largest - US $bn, 20102 Qatar 62 Libya 65 Americas Other, 193 Hong Kong 4% 2% 203 Kuwait Russia 220 Asia, Singapore 333 Europe, 41% 395 Norway 19% 436 Saudi Arabia China 733 United Arab Emirates 738 0 500 1000 Gateway, 34% Top 10 Largest - US $bn, 20073 Russia 32 Alaska 35 Australia 40 Kuwait 70 Saudi Arabia 300 China 300 Norway 312 Singapore 430 United Arab Emirates 875 1Gateway 0 500 1000 Region includes MENA and Africa; Americas include North and Latin America. Source: PE Report of Preqin, 2011. 2Source: Getmoney.com, January 2010. 3Source: http://chenesseau.net/4.html.6
  8. 8. TURKEY: A Gateway Destination in the Gateway Region GDP 2000 2010 US$ 266 bn US$ 729 bn FDI (NET INFLOWS) FOREIGN TRADE VOLUME 2000 2010 2000 2010 US$ 0.9 bn US$ 7.0 bn 116 US$ 116 bn US$ 299 bn M&A TRANSACTIONS 2002 2010 US$ 0.6 bn US$ 26.4 bn Source: IMF Database, World Bank Database; EMPEA Database, December 2008; Ernst & Young M&A Transactions Report 2010; Turkish Statistical Institute Database, UNCTAD Global Investment Trends Monitor Report, January 17, 2010.7
  9. 9. TURKEY: Developing Relations With the Middle EastFDI (NET INFLOWS) FOREIGN TRADE VOLUME (US$ mn) (US$ bn) 245 CAGR CAGR 28.7 74% 23% 6.6 52002 2009 2002 2009 Source: Turkish Statistical Institute Database. January 2011. 8
  10. 10. TURKEY: In The Flow of a Major Global Resource Basin Gateway Region as a % of Total Global Resources 1 AGRICULTURAL ENERGY MINING GOODS Gateway Region Oil Natural Gas Coal Gold Platinum Copper Phosphate Wheat Cotton MENA 64.7% 45.8% 0.2% 1.1% NA 1.5% 47.2% 7.1% 3.5% Sub-Saharan Africa 5.1% 3.5% 2.9% 21.1% 88.7% 7.4% 10.5% 1.0% 5.9% Russia/FSU 10.0% 30.7% 26.9% 17.9% 8.7% 7.3% 1.3% 15.3% 7.3% Total 79.8% 79.6% 30.9% 40.1% 97.5% 16.3% 59.0% 23.4% 16.7% Turkey as a major oil & gas transit country 2 PER DAY OIL NATURAL GAS Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline ~ 2730 barrels Iraq-Turkey Pipelines ~457 barrels Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum Pipeline 10-14 mn m3 Iran –Turkey Pipeline ~18 mn m3 Russia-Turkey Pipelines ~54mn m3 Turkey- Europe Pipelines ~43 mn m3 1 Source:radikal.com.tr , milliyet.com.tr, arsiv.ntvmsnbc.com, ilgazetesi.com.tr, alternaturk.org, zaman.com.tr. 2 Source:BP Energy Statistical Review, June 2009, USGS Commodity Statistics and Information, December 2008, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, December 2008.9
  11. 11. TURKEY & MIDDLE EAST: Creating Regional Champions with M&A – Private Equity M&A Volume (US$ bn) PE Investment Volume (US$ bn) 5.7 39.4 5.4 37.2 34.0 30.6 2.7 2.2 9.2 0.9 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: EMPEA Database, 2010; Ernst & Young M&A Transactions Report 2010.10
  12. 12. TURKEY & MIDDLE EAST: A Fruitful Relationship THANK YOU serkan.elden@pinebridge.com11
  13. 13. Disclosure Statement PineBridge Investments is a group of international companies acquired by Pacific Century Group from American International Group, Inc. in March 2010. PineBridge companies provide investment advice and market asset management products and services to clients around the world. PineBridge Investments is a service mark proprietary to PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited. Services and products are provided by one or more affiliates of PineBridge Investments. Certain middle and back office functions incidental to the services and products provided by PineBridge Investments and its affiliates may be outsourced to third parties. Readership: This document is intended solely for the addressee(s). Its content may be legally privileged and/or confidential. Opinions: Any opinions expressed in this document may be subject to change without notice. We are not soliciting or recommending any action based on this material. Risk Warning: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Our investment management services relate to a variety of investments, each of which can fluctuate in value. The value of portfolios we manage may fall as well as rise, and the investor may not get back the full amount originally invested. The investment risks vary between different types of instruments. For example, for investments involving exposure to a currency other than that in which the portfolio is denominated, changes in the rate of exchange may cause the value of investments, and consequently the value of the portfolio, to go up or down. In the case of a higher volatility portfolio the loss on realization or cancellation may be very high (including total loss of investment), as the value of such an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. In making an investment decision, prospective investors must rely on their own examination of the merits and risks involved. Unless otherwise noted, all information contained herein is sourced from PineBridge Investments internal data. The content included herein has been shared with various in-house departments within the member companies of PineBridge Investments, in the ordinary course of completion. All PineBridge Investments member companies comply with the confidentiality requirements of their respective jurisdictions. Parts of this presentation may be based on information received from sources we consider reliable. We do not represent that all of this information is accurate or complete, however, and it may not be relied upon as such. PineBridge Investments Europe Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority ("FSA"). In the UK this communication is a financial promotion solely intended for professional clients as defined in the FSA Handbook and has been approved by PineBridge Investments Europe Limited. Approved by PineBridge Investments Ireland Limited. This entity is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In Australia, this document is intended for a limited number of wholesale clients as such term is defined in chapter 7 of the Corporations Act 2001 (CTH). The entity receiving this document represents that if it is in Australia, it is a wholesale client and it will not distribute this document to any other person whether in or outside of Australia. In Hong Kong, in relation to collective investment schemes which are subject to the Advertising Guidelines Applicable to Collective Investment Schemes Authorized under the Product Codes issued by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), the issuer of this document is PineBridge Investments Hong Kong Limited, licensed and regulated by the SFC. It has not been reviewed by the SFC. PineBridge Investments Singapore Limited is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (the”MAS”). In Singapore, this material is intended for an institutional investor as defined in Section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter289). This material is not reviewed or endorsed by the MAS. PineBridge Investments Middle East Limited is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. When being offered by PineBridge Investments Middle East Limited this document is intended for Professional Clients only and no other person should act upon it. The financial products and services to which this material relates will only be made available to persons who meet the regulatory criteria to be treated as Professional Clients of PineBridge Investments Middle East Limited. PineBridge Investments Web Address: www. pinebridge.com Rev. 29/11/201012