Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Climate change--choose your future wisely.
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Climate change--choose your future wisely.

556

Published on

Some of the slides as covered at the Maastricht School of Business and Economics. …

Some of the slides as covered at the Maastricht School of Business and Economics.

Published in: Business, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
556
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. futureproofed.comCLIMATE CHANGE:CHOOSE YOUR FUTURESerge de Gheldere
  • 2. THE CLIMATE PROJECT“Climate ambassador” for Al Gore
  • 3. THE CLIMATE PROJECT“Climate ambassador” for Al Gore
  • 4. GROEPT Engineering CollegeDirector
  • 5. We deliver bold,sustainable business solutions,creating value todayand tomorrow.
  • 6. Resolving(Design)Mapping(Measure)Launching(Build)
  • 7. CHOOSEYOURFUTURE
  • 8. FUTURE #1
  • 9. Oildecline
  • 10. Everything is oilProductionRaw materialsFoodLogistics
  • 11. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012© BP 2012
  • 12. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012© BP 2012Oil production/consumption by region
  • 13. Market shortfallconsumption -production7 Mbarrels/day
  • 14. This increase would be mostly driven by higher demandfrom non-OECD economies – in particular China and India.The expected rise in the oil price is unlikely to be smooth.
  • 15. Oil priceOil importTrade balanceItaly’s trade balance
  • 16. 1999 2011-60-45-30-15015300255075100Tradebalancebn$Oilprice$/barrelOil priceOil importTrade balanceItaly’s trade balance
  • 17. 1999 2011-60-45-30-1501530025507510020 $/barrel100 $/barrelTradebalancebn$Oilprice$/barrelOil priceOil importTrade balanceItaly’s trade balance
  • 18. 1999 2011-60-45-30-1501530025507510020 $/barrel100 $/barrel-12 bn $ -55 bn $Tradebalancebn$Oilprice$/barrelOil priceOil importTrade balanceItaly’s trade balance
  • 19. 1999 2011-60-45-30-1501530025507510020 $/barrel100 $/barrel-12 bn $ -55 bn $22 bn $-36 bn $Tradebalancebn$Oilprice$/barrelOil priceOil importTrade balanceItaly’s trade balance
  • 20. International Energy Agency(feb 2013)Southern Europe=same position as ItalyOil import bill EU: $ 668 bln 2013
  • 21. International Energy Agency:“The existing fields are declining so sharplythat in order to stay where we are in termsof production levels in the next 25 years,we have to find and developfour new Saudi Arabias.”(40 M barrels/day)No cheap oil left
  • 22. German army“Sicherheitspolitische Implikationen knapper Ressourcen”Streitkräfte, Fähigkeiten und Technologien im 21. Jahrhundert- Umweltdimensionen von Sicherheit -• Oil decline results in shrinking logistics• Governments are not prepared to dealwith shortage of vital goods• Impoverishment will lead toextremism and domestic conflicts
  • 23. German army“Sicherheitspolitische Implikationen knapper Ressourcen”Streitkräfte, Fähigkeiten und Technologien im 21. Jahrhundert- Umweltdimensionen von Sicherheit -Proposed solutions—focus on principles of:• Resilience,• Flexibility,• Self-sufficiency
  • 24. If you’re 28 or younger,you have never experienceda colder than average monthin your life.
  • 25. The next 10 years may be themost important ones since thebeginning of mankind.
  • 26. World Economic Forumin collaboration with :Marsh & McLennan CompaniesSwiss Reinsurance CompanyWharton Center for Risk Management,University of PennsylvaniaZurich Financial ServicesGlobalRisks2011SixthEditionAn initiative of the Risk Response NetworkWorld Economic ForumJanuary 2011Climate changemost important riskof next 10 years(January 2011)WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
  • 27. Economicimpact(billion$)Likelihood of occurring in the next 10 years
  • 28. “World is more atrisk as persistenteconomic weaknesssaps our ability totackle environmentalchallenges.”World economic forum2013Global Risks 2013Eighth EditionAn Initiative of the Risk Response NetworkInsight Report
  • 29. iftheriskweretooccurEconomicEnvironmentalGeopolitical54324.143.93.83.73.63.53.43.33.23.132.92.82.7Critical fragile statesMajor systemic financial failureWater supply crisesChronic fiscal imbalancesSevere income disparityChronic labour market imbalancesRisingreligiousfanaticismMismanagement of population ageingTerrorismPersistent extreme weatherCyber attacksMismanaged urbanizationSpecies overexploitationMassive incident of data fraud/theftRising rates ofchronic diseaseEntrenched organized crimeMassive digital misinformationUnforeseen negativeconsequencesof regulationMilitarization of spaceLand and waterwayuse mismanagementUnmanageable inflation or deflationCritical systems failureVulnerabilityto pandemicsUnmanaged migrationRecurringliquiditycrisesIrremediable pollutionUnsustainable population growthFood shortage crisesGlobal governance failureRising greenhouse gas emissionFailure of climate change adaptationFailure of diplomaticconflict resolutionExtreme volatility in energy and agriculture pricesDiffusion of weapons of mass destructionUnforeseen consequences of new life science technologiesBacklash against globalizationBacklash against globalizationUnprecedented geophysical destructionIneffective illicit drug policiesUnforeseen consequencesof nanotechnologyWidespread illicit tradeProliferation of orbital debrisFailure of intellectual property regimeAntibiotic-resistantbacteriaPervasive entrenched corruptionHard landing of an emerging economyUnilateral resource nationalizationUnforeseenconsequencesof climatechange mitigationProlongedinfrastructureneglectVulnerability togeomagneticstormsMineral resource supplyvulnerabilityImpactiftheriskweretooccurLikelihood to occur in the next ten yearsEconomicEnvironmentalGeopoliticalSocietalTechnological1 2 3 4 5543212.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4 4.1 4.23.73.63.53.43.33.23.132.92.82.72.62.5Critical fragile statesChronic labour market imbalancesRisingreligiousfanaticismMismanagement of population ageingTerrorismPersistent extreme weatherCyber attacksMismanaged urbanizationSpecies overexploitationMassive incident of data fraud/theftRising rates ofchronic diseaseEntrenched organized crimeMassive digital misinformationUnforeseen negativeconsequencesof regulationMilitarization of spaceLand and waterwayuse mismanagementUnmanageable inflation or deflationCritical systems failureVulnerabilityto pandemicsUnmanaged migrationRecurringliquiditycrisesIrremediable pollutionUnsustainable population growth Failure of diplomaticconflict resolutionUnforeseen consequences of new life science technologiesBacklash against globalizationBacklash against globalizationUnprecedented geophysical destructionIneffective illicit drug policiesUnforeseen consequencesof nanotechnologyWidespread illicit tradeProliferation of orbital debrisFailure of intellectual property regimeAntibiotic-resistantbacteriaPervasive entrenched corruptionHard landing of an emerging economyUnilateral resource nationalizationUnforeseenconsequencesof climatechange mitigationProlongedinfrastructureneglectVulnerability togeomagneticstormsMineral resource supplyvulnerabilityEconomicEnvironmentalGeopoliticalSocietalTechnological1 2 3 4 554321
  • 30. Haïti Dominican RepublicThe climate projectEcosystem services:“interest” onnatural capitalLiving systems (capital)Ecosystem services (interest)Ecosystem services• Water purification• Flood management• Pollination• Buffering extreme weather• Soil formation• Photosynthesis:CO2 to O2Ecosystem services
  • 31. Creative commons: Nicolas Guerin• Water purification• Flood management• Pollination• Buffering extreme weather• Soil formation• Photosynthesis:CO2 to O2Ecosystem services
  • 32. Hyland seeds• Water purification• Flood management• Pollination• Buffering extreme weather• Soil formation• Photosynthesis:CO2 to O2Ecosystem services
  • 33. TEEB - The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversityteebweb.orgTheEconomicsofEcosystems&BiodiversityTEEB FOR POLICY MAKERSSUMMARY: RESPONDING TO THE VALUE OF NATURE
  • 34. MELTING PERMAFROSTCOAL MININGCOAL PLANTSCROP BURNINGOIL PRODUCTIONFOREST BURNINGLAND TRANSPORTATIONLANDFILLSFERTILIZATIONINDUSTRIAL AGRICULTUREINDUSTRIAL PROCESSESWhere Do Greenhouse Gases Come From?
  • 35. Tropospheric CO2July 2003363CO2 Concentration PPMV386Source: NASA/JPL
  • 36. Tropospheric CO2July 2008363CO2 Concentration PPMV386Source: NASA/JPL
  • 37. CO2ConcentrationCO2(ppmv)400Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA3203403603803001802002202402602802012 CO2 Concentration: 400 ppmTemp.inF°800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0Age (years BP)
  • 38. Jim HansenDirector of NASA Goddard Institutefor Space Studies“The last time CO2 wasas high as today,sea level was higher byat least 15 meters”
  • 39. Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA2012 CO2 Concentration: 400 ppmCO2ConcentrationCO2(ppmv)400320340360380300180200220240260280Temp.inF°800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0Age (years BP)
  • 40. Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAAAfter 35 more years at the current rate of increaseCO2ConcentrationCO2(ppmv)400320340360380300180200220240260280Temp.inF°800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0Age (years BP)420440460480500520540560580600
  • 41. 1980
  • 42. 2005
  • 43. 2007
  • 44. © Bryon and Cherry Alexander
  • 45. Photo courtesy of Paul Grabhorn/ACIA
  • 46. Photo credit: Vladimir Lightovsky, University of Alaska Fairbanks
  • 47. Source: University of Alaska - Fairbanks/INE, 2007
  • 48. Source: University of Alaska - Fairbanks/INE, 2007
  • 49. Positive feedback loops
  • 50. Photo: Paul Souders/Corbis
  • 51. 1880 – 2010-0.5-0.2500.250.50.75AnomalyRelativeto1901–2000Mean(°C)1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010Source: National Climatic Data Center; NOAA
  • 52. Change in Annual Global Temperature1880 – 2010-0.5-0.2500.250.50.75AnomalyRelativeto1901–2000Mean(°C)1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010Source: National Climatic Data Center; NOAA
  • 53. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Source: Alexander, L. V., et al., Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res., 111,D05109, doi:10.1029/2005JD006290, 2006 © 2006 American Geophysical Union. Reproduced by permission of American Geophysical Union.210-1-2-3Worldwide
  • 54. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Increase in Heavy Precipitation DaysSource: Alexander, L. V., et al., Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res., 111,D05109, doi:10.1029/2005JD006290, 2006 © 2006 American Geophysical Union. Reproduced by permission of American Geophysical Union.210-1-2-3Worldwide
  • 55. Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, National Center for Computational SciencesAs temperatures increase, the oceansevaporate more moisture into the sky
  • 56. Photo: AP Photo/Lori MehmenOrchard, IowaJune 10, 2008
  • 57. © 2010 Sean R. Heavey
  • 58. “The only plausible explanation for therise in weather-related catastrophes isclimate change.”Munich ReOne of the two largest reinsurance companies in the worldSeptember 27, 2010
  • 59. Source: Darren SeilerAustralia Drought
  • 60. Upsala Gletsjer19282004ArgentinaPhoto: © Greenpeace/De Agostini/Beltra
  • 61. Portage Gletsjer1914 2004AlaskaPhotos: NOAA Photo Collection and Gary Braasch – WorldViewOfGlobalWarming.org
  • 62. RhoneGlacier© Gesellschaft fuer oekologische Forschung
  • 63. RhoneGlacier© Gesellschaft fuer oekologische Forschung
  • 64. All of this is now,and with ‘only’0.8 °C
  • 65. “Climate change has alreadyheld back global development.It is already a significant cost to theworld economy, while inaction on climatechange can be considered one of theleading global causes of death.”ClimateVulnerableForumCLIMATEVULNERABILITYMONITORA GUIDE TO THE COLD CALCULUS OF A HOT PLANET2NDEDITIONCLIMATEVULNERABILITYMONITORAGUIDETOTHECOLDCALCULUSOFAHOTPLANET
  • 66. 400.000climate changerelated deaths/yearClimateVulnerableForumCLIMATEVULNERABILITYMONITORA GUIDE TO THE COLD CALCULUS OF A HOT PLANET2NDEDITIONCLIMATEVULNERABILITYMONITORAGUIDETOTHECOLDCALCULUSOFAHOTPLANET1.200 bn $climate and carbonrelated losses/year(2011)
  • 67. Jim HansenDirector of NASA Goddard Institutefor Space Studies“We are just nowexperiencingthe full effect ofCO2 emitted until 1980s”
  • 68. CO2ConcentrationCO2(ppmv)400Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA3203403603803001802002202402602802012 CO2 Concentration: 400 ppmTemp.inF°800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0Age (years BP)
  • 69. Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA2012 CO2 Concentration: 400 ppmCO2ConcentrationCO2(ppmv)400320340360380300180200220240260280Temp.inF°800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0Age (years BP)
  • 70. Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAAAfter 35 more years at the current rate of increaseCO2ConcentrationCO2(ppmv)400320340360380300180200220240260280Temp.inF°800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0Age (years BP)420440460480500520540560580600
  • 71. Risk of coastal floodingMillions at risk in 2080s35003000250020001500100050003503002502001501005001,0°C 1,5°C 2,0°C 2,5°C 3,0°CHunger,malaria,flooding(millionpeopleatrisk)Risk of hungerwatershortage(millionpeopleatrisk)Global temperature increase above pre-industrial (°C)Risk of malaria
  • 72. Risk of water shortageRisk of coastal floodingMillions at risk in 2080s35003000250020001500100050003503002502001501005001,0°C 1,5°C 2,0°C 2,5°C 3,0°CHunger,malaria,flooding(millionpeopleatrisk)Risk of hungerwatershortage(millionpeopleatrisk)Global temperature increase above pre-industrial (°C)Risk of malaria
  • 73. All wateron earth
  • 74. All wateron earthAll atmosphereon earth
  • 75. How many Gigatons ...
  • 76. Unburnable Carbon –Are the world’s financial marketscarrying a carbon bubble?
  • 77. You want me to leave it down here?May 4th 2013 | From the print editionEnergy firms and climate changeUnburnable fuelEither governments are not serious about climate change or fossil-fuel firms areovervaluedMARKETS can misprice risk, as investorsin subprime mortgages discovered in 2008.Several recent reports suggest thatmarkets are now overlooking the risk of“unburnable carbon”. The share prices ofoil, gas and coal companies depend in parton their reserves. The more fossil fuels afirm has underground, the more valuable itsshares. But what if some of those reservescan never be dug up and burned?If governments were determined toimplement their climate policies, a lot ofthat carbon would have to be left in theground, says Carbon Tracker, a non-profitorganisation, and the Grantham ResearchInstitute on Climate Change, part of theLondon School of Economics. Theiranalysis starts by estimating the amount ofcarbon dioxide that could be put into theTweetTweet 575AdverCoE-RecLike 2.4kDigital & mobile Events Topics A-Z Newsletters JobsSearchRegister SubscribeLog inWorld politics Business & finance Economics Science & technology Culture Blogs Debate & discuss Audio & video Print editionYou want me to leave it down here?May 4th 2013 | From the print editionEnergy firms and climate changeUnburnable fuelEither governments are not serious about climate change or fossil-fuel firms areovervaluedMARKETS can misprice risk, as investorsin subprime mortgages discovered in 2008.Several recent reports suggest thatmarkets are now overlooking the risk of“unburnable carbon”. The share prices ofoil, gas and coal companies depend in parton their reserves. The more fossil fuels afirm has underground, the more valuable itsshares. But what if some of those reservescan never be dug up and burned?If governments were determined toimplement their climate policies, a lot ofthat carbon would have to be left in theground, says Carbon Tracker, a non-profitorganisation, and the Grantham ResearchInstitute on Climate Change, part of theLondon School of Economics. Theiranalysis starts by estimating the amount ofcarbon dioxide that could be put into theTweetTweet 575AdvertisementComment (143) PrintE-mail Reprints & permissionsRecent ActivityOtherwordly comforts25 people recommended this.Gastronauts on Mars18 people recommended this.In God Some Trust573 people recommended this.Horribly rotten, comically stupid339 people recommended this.Like 2.4k
  • 78. Unburnable Carbon – Are the world’s financial markets carrying a carbon bubble?CHINATotal GtCO267.46Coal58.69Oil8.46Gas0.31RUSSIATotal GtCO2252.98Coal160.84Oil75.39Gas16.75USATotal GtCO2156.49Oil111.68Coal33.83Gas10.98UKTotal GtCO2105.5Oil51.52Coal49.35Gas4.63CANADATotal GtCO227.88Oil19.95Coal6.74Gas1.19AUSTRALIATotal GtCO221.97Coal18.72Oil2.70Gas0.55INDIATotal GtCO212.63Coal12.28Gas0.19Gas0.53ITALYTotal GtCO28.04Oil7.51BRAZILTotal GtCO214.63Oil11.45Coal3.01Gas0.17FRANCETotal GtCO218.24Oil17.07Gas1.17JAPANTotal GtCO211.03Coal8.42Oil2.44Oil0.16Gas0.17SOUTHAFRICATotal GtCO217.96Coal17.9610 |Country Coal Oil Gas TotalINDONESIA 5.15 - - 5.15GREECE 4.56 - - 4.56SPAIN - 2.96 0.29 3.25SINGAPORE 3.21 - - 3.21THAILAND 2.55 0.33 0.12 3.0NORWAY - 2.23 0.25 2.48GERMANY 1.94 - 0.05 1.99ARGENTINA - 1.68 0.12 1.8KOREA - 1.56 - 1.56AUSTRIA - 1.02 0.06 1.08CZECH REPUBLIC 1.07 - - 1.07NETHERLANDS 0.62 - - 0.62SWEDEN - 0.47 0.00 0.47COLOMBIA - 0.35 0.01 0.36MEXICO 0.26 - - 0.26HUNGARY - 0.19 0.01 0.2CROATIA - 0.17 - 0.17Distribution of fossil fuel reservesbetween stock exchangesFig.4CHINATotal GtCO267.46Coal58.69Oil8.46Gas0.31RUSSIATotal GtCO2252.98Coal160.84Oil75.39Gas16.75USATotal GtCO2156.49Oil111.68Coal33.83Gas10.98UKTotal GtCO2105.5Oil51.52Coal49.35Gas4.63CANADATotal GtCO227.88Oil19.95Coal6.74Gas1.19AUSTRALIATotal GtCO221.97Coal18.72Oil2.70Gas0.55INDIATotal GtCO212.63Coal12.28Gas0.19Gas0.53ITALYTotal GtCO28.04Oil7.51BRAZILTotal GtCO214.63Oil11.45Coal3.01Gas0.17FRANCETotal GtCO218.24Oil17.07Gas1.17JAPANTotal GtCO211.03Coal8.42Oil2.44Oil0.16Gas0.17SOUTHAFRICATotal GtCO217.96Coal17.96| 11
  • 79. ... there is an alternative: invest in ourfuture, in ways that help us toaddress simultaneously the problemsof global warming, global inequalityand poverty, and the necessity ofstructural change.—Joseph Stiglitz
  • 80. USA Russia Belgium E.U. China India Target04812162017.312.810.07.5 7.21.6 1.2The global challenge is immensetonCO2e/person*year-90 % by 2050
  • 81. FACTOR 10ISNECESSARYPOSSIBLEATTRACTIVEPROFITABLE
  • 82. Multi-actor business modelsGovernment CompaniesConsumerCitizens
  • 83. From Dan Esty “Green to Gold”short term(more certain)long term(less certain)BoostupsideReducedownsideRevenues IntangiblesCosts Risks
  • 84. “European Heads of State (...)commit at least 20% of the entireEU budget from 2014-2020 toclimate-related spending.”8 feb 2013Connie Hedegaard,European Commissioner for Climate Action
  • 85. 80% DECARBONIZATION OVERALL MEANS NEARLY FULLDECARBONIZATION IN POWER, ROAD TRANSPORT AND BUILDINGS2
  • 86. “The purpose of thecorporation needsto be redefined ascreating shared value.Creating economicvalue in waythat also createsvalue for society.”Michael PorterHarvard Business School
  • 87. “In business, we havespent years manufacturingdemand,while missing themost important demandof all.”Michael PorterHarvard Business School
  • 88. VISIONWITHOUTEXECUTIONISHALLUCINATIONTHOMAS EDISON
  • 89. Natural Capitalism
  • 90. 4 STRATEGIES1.Radical natural resource efficacy2.Biomimetic production3.Solutions economy4.Reinvest in natural capitalwww.natcap.orgNatural Capitalism
  • 91. From the Drivepower Technology Atlas.Tunneling through the cost barrierFACTOR 10 improvement at lower initial costPipes Larger diameter; straight layoutLarger diameter; straight layoutLarger diameter; straight layoutPump specs. Smaller pumps and motorsSmaller pumps and motorsSmaller pumps and motorsCapital investment Lower than original designLower than original designLower than original designPumping power (hp) before: 95 after: 7 saving: 93%-90 %
  • 92. Tunneling through the cost barrierkWh/m2*jaarEnergieverbruik. kWh/m2*jaar0 10 20 30 40 50 60EnergieverbruikMeerinvesteringTotale kost = energieverbruik + meerinvesteringSpecific space heating demand [kWh/m2 * year]Totalcost,amortizedover30year[€/m2*year]Total cost = energy cost + construction costPeak heating load < 10 W/m2 --> ventilation system can be used forspace heating. Investing in a heating system is no longer required, andconstruction cost goes down.construction costs rise (better insulation,windows, equipement, workmanship, etc.) inorder to reduce heating demandenergy costs rise withheating demand
  • 93. Parans lighting systemOptical fibres transporting energy instead of data
  • 94. Exterior insulation for existing buildingsUV / rain / graffiti / impact resistant breathable building “skin”
  • 95. ENERGY RETROFIT OF 144 HOUSES (KERKRADE, NL)120 kWh/m2*j 25 kWh/m2*j• Modular prefab elements• 8 days/house• Inhabitants stay in house
  • 96. Kingspan - integrated roof elementsInterior finish, insulation, airtightness, structure, weatherproofing, PV
  • 97. Tony Malkin, ceo Empire State Building
  • 98. © Futureproofed factor 10 project • April 201130ivenewequipmentorcontrols.ologyssource: Empire State Building esbsuistanability.org30.000 ft
  • 99. © Futureproofed factor 10 project • April 2011source: Empire State Building esbsuistanability.orgProject Incremental cost Annual energy savingsDaylighting, lighting, plugsRadiative barrierWindowsChiller plant retrofitAir handling unitsPower generationDemand control ventilationTenant energy managementDirect digital controls8400 9412700 1904000 410-17300 6752400 7027000 320(included above) 117365 3965600 741Totals 13165 4172
  • 100. © Futureproofed factor 10 project • April 2011A landmark sustainability program for the Empire State Building 1A landmark sustainability programfor the Empire State BuildingA  model  for  optimizing  energy  efficiency,  sustainable  practices,  operating  expenses  and  long-­term  value  in  existing  buildingsEfforts to make buildings more environmentally sustainable haveproduced  hundreds  of  millions  of  square  feet  of  greener  office  space.  But  tens  of  billions  of  square  feet  remain  in  office  buildings  worldwide for which owners have made little or no progress in theareas  of  energy  efficiency  and  sustainability.Owners of multi-tenant buildings, which comprise the bulk ofoffice  space,  are  primarily  motivated  by  return  on  investment.  To  justify  the  costs  associated  with  energy  efficiency  retrofits,  owners  must be convinced that the investment will be repaid by somecombination of reduced operating expenses, higher rental ratesand  greater  occupancy  levels.  The  percentage  of  tenants  willing  to pay higher overall occupancy costs for green space is not large,and tenants that greatly value sustainability gravitate towardsnewer buildings that have been designed and built to higherenergy and environmental standards. In general, the incrementalcost  of  retrofitting  older  buildings  to  achieve  improved  energy  perfromance is more expensive than the incremental cost ofachieving the same performance in a new building.This  context  underscores  the  extraordinary  nature  of  the  commitment that Anthony E. Malkin of Empire State BuildingCompany has made to establish the Empire State Building asone  of  the  most  energy  efficient  buildings  in  New  York  City,  and arguably the world’s most environmentally consciousoffice  tower  built  before  World  War  II.  Just  as  extraordinary  as  Malkin’s  commitment  to  retrofitting  the  Empire  State  Building  was his decision to make the process transparent so that otherbuilding  owners–particularly  those  with  pre-­WWII  or  landmark  properties–would have an example to follow in pursuing their owngreen projects.Partnercompanies5Energy-efficiencyideas vetted60+Final projectsrecommended8Iterativedesign process8mos.Annual energysavings$4.4MEnergyreduction38%A landmark sustainability programfor the Empire State Building30.000 ft
  • 101. © Futureproofed factor 10 project • April 20110255075100Before Financing AfterEnergy performance contractingEnergy cost Retrofit cost30.000 ft
  • 102. © Futureproofed factor 10 project • April 2011source: Empire State Building esbsuistanability.org30.000 ft
  • 103. example- Storytelling Nuage Vert HelsinkiContinuous process of visualising, inspiring withgamification element. Allowing for broader media-support.
  • 104. High-definition, low-latency telepresence
  • 105. Mario Fleurinck, ceo Melotte
  • 106. From globalized analog production to direct digital local productionSuperior properties with dramatically reduced time, costs, carbon and resource use.MELOTTE
  • 107. Production process Melotte - green mix1290.0510.1270.1780.02 0.0160.0370.005Alloy Supplies ElectricityFuClassical production process (Pt)Production process Melotte - gray electricity (Pt)Production process Melotte - green mix (Pt)factor7
  • 108. Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)Curitiba, Brazil + 83 cities world wideMetro-like efficiency. Bus-like investment.
  • 109. Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)Curitiba, Brazil + 83 cities world wideProtected shelter, easy acces,with sale and validation of tickets
  • 110. Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)Curitiba, Brazil + 83 cities world wideRapid, easy access to and from busses
  • 111. Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)Curitiba, Brazil + 83 cities world wideReserved bus-lanes.High frequency in peak hours.
  • 112. BRT Curitiba• 2.2 m inhabitants• 70% use BRT• 28 % car drivers• Fuel/person 30% lower
  • 113. “Who killed the electric car”
  • 114. Tesla Roadstermore than 20 million real world kms
  • 115. 45 g CO2/km, well to wheel, grey electricity350 km radius0 - 100 km/h: 3.7 s0 g CO2/km, well to wheel, green electricityTesla Roadstermore than 20 million real world kms
  • 116. 515 kmradius4.4 s0-100 km/h45 gCO2/kmgrey5 + 2adults kidsPure electric vehicles with superior performance & increased convenienceAccelerating transition to increasingly affordable electric mobility.TESLA0 gCO2/kmgreenModel S
  • 117. Elon Musk, ceo Tesla
  • 118. GM bankruptcy
  • 119. Model S
  • 120. 4 STRATEGIES1.Radical natural resource efficacy2.Biomimetic, closed loopproduction3.Solutions economy4.Reinvest in natural capitalwww.natcap.orgNatural Capitalism
  • 121. --f"-y"---image&18& closing&the&circle
  • 122. !"!!!!!!!!! #$%&()*$+!$,!-!*./+()$0*+($%$)%++/$&.*&"2)%#)&-")3.*4-$)*50"6)$-07$)&-*&)!"#$$%&()#%*+,-$+.*+/%):4/.;-*$")01)"+";&.%;%&()%#)20)#0&-%#3)$;"#*.%0<=>!"#$%&(& !"#$%&()*+,(!$-)./#)+&",#0!"#$%&)& !"#$%&()*1($)2(./$-0!"#$%&$%()#*++,-)&.-/#0.&1,-)$,-%#-%2,/#-#)3&.$%,-0.",&$#)4."5#!"#$%&$(")#*+$#,$-6.%#&.")&#$57#&.%,-#.#&!)($)-&##$/(8!#)-%!)7.-%.($12!"#$%&%%&()*#*+($%$!"#$%&(& !"#$%&()*+,(!$-)./#)+&",#0!"#$%&)& !"#$%&()*1($)2(./$-0!2! carbon!footprint297,1!Mton3,4!Mton MaterialsCH43,2!Mton12,9!Mton16,1!MtonCH43,2!Mton7,1!Mton3,4!Mton2,4!Mton16,1!MtonWtEMaterials3,2!Mton 16,1!Mtonscenario:!Do!Nothingscenario:!Closing!the!Circle=!natural!!resourcesoutput!scenario!CtCoutput!scenario!DN+!!!input!marketimage&16& balance!between!scenarion!do&nothing!and!closing&the&circle!
  • 123. P+CIRCULAIREECONOMIE4Zesgeda1Resten tapijt,van nylon.2Het vezel uit tapijt (fluff),losgemaakt van debitumen ondergrond.3Herwonnen nylon teruggebracht tot deoervorm:caprolactam.daanteve4Gerecycled nylon als nieuw garen Econylvoor tapijtindustrie.
  • 124. Zesgeda3Herwonnen nylon teruggebracht tot deoervorm:caprolactam.5VAN GRONDSTOF TOT GRONDSTOFdaanteverwisselingen4Gerecycled nylon als nieuw garen Econylvoor tapijtindustrie.5Garen tot een superdunne mat geweven,met een minimum aan materiaal.6Nieuw product:Biosfera van InterfaceFLOR,op dit moment de duurzaamste vloertegel.
  • 125. CO2 as a Monomer for Polymer Synthesis(http://bioplastique.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/bayer_logo.jpg)(http://bioplastique.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/logo_main.jpg)(http://bioplastique.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/banner-cworld-logo.png)The low cost and low toxicity of CO2 make it an attractive industrial chemical reagent, and theutility of CO2 is dramatically illustrated by the fact that millions of tons of CO2 are consumed peryear in the industrial production of urea. Other methods for using CO2 as a practical carbonfeedstock are being aggressively investigated, and one of the most intensely studied processesinvolves the use of CO2 in the synthesis of polymers, especially polycarbonates andpolyurethanes. The current industrial synthesis of those materials is primarily based on thecondensation of highly toxic phosgene and aromatic or aliphatic diols. Because CO2 wouldprovide a less expensive, less toxic alternative to phosgene, considerable effort has gone intodeveloping those CO2-based synthesis .
  • 126. Surface Cleaning SolutionsDry Cleaning SolutionsSurface Cleaning Solutions Dry Cleaning SolutionsSatisfying High Industry RequirementsCustomers demand high quality, cost effective results that comply with regulatory and environmental requirements.The SAFE-TAINER™ System is a sustainable closed-loop solution for:Dry cleaningSurface cleaningDow branded chlorinated and non-chlorinated solvents are supplied and the waste is returned for recycling in theSAFE-TAINER™ System.Solutions and ApplicationsABOUT US SOLUTIONS & APPLICATIONS NEWS & MEDIA DOWNLOADS & LINKS WHERE TO BUY CONTACT US MY.WEBSERVICESAFECHEM Europe HomePrivacy Statement | Terms of Use | Accessibility Statement | Site MapCopyright © The Dow Chemical Company (1995-2013). All Rights Reserved.®™*Trademark of The Dow Chemical Company ("Dow") or an affiliated company of Dow®Responsible Care is a registered service mark of the American Chemistry CouncilEurope(Change to North America)Search SAFECHEMClosed-Loop Solutions
  • 127. 4 STRATEGIES1.Radical natural resource efficacy2.Biomimetic, closed loop production3.Solutions economy4.Reinvest in natural capitalwww.natcap.orgNatural Capitalism
  • 128. Industries & ApplicationsSolventsSAFE-TAINER™SystemService ElementsCOMPLEASE™Chemical LeasingProducts & ServicesService AllianceCHEMAWARE™ KnowledgeServicesTestimonialsSurface Cleaning SolutionsDry Cleaning SolutionsCOMPLEASE™ is an innovative offering for high qualitycleaning requirements of our customers. At the same time itsupports customer efforts regarding environmentalresponsibility.COMPLEASE™ combines the full SAFECHEM surface cleaningsolution optionally with high performance cleaning equipmentfor a fixed monthly leasing fee. The flexibility of the availabletechnical parameters allows continuous cleaning processoptimisation.Customers benefit from improved cleaning processes andresults, cost transparency and greater economic value.Further informationCOMPLEASE™ Chemical Leasing Information FolderIndividual Complete Solution for Quality Cleaning in Line with EnvironmentalRequirementsCOMPLEASE™ – Chemical LeasingABOUT US SOLUTIONS & APPLICATIONS NEWS & MEDIA DOWNLOADS & LINKS WHERE TO BUY CONTACT US MY.WEBSERVICESAFECHEM Europe Home : Surface Cleaning Solutions : Products & Services : COMPLEASE™ Chemical LeasingEurope(Change to North America)Search SAFECHEMFull Package
  • 129. MUD JEANS toevoegen
  • 130. 4 STRATEGIES1.Radical natural resource efficacy2.Biomimetic, closed loop production3.Solutions economy4.Reinvest in natural capitalwww.natcap.orgNatural Capitalism
  • 131. streetstreetlanewood
  • 132. Intensief groen 17.000 helft van dExtensief groen 45.500 21.0007.46717.000boswadi en tahelft ext. tu13.03317.50045.50017.0007.000Verharde rijwegIntensief beheerd groenExtensief beheerd groenBebouwde oppervlakteOnverharde rijwegVerharde rijwegIntensief beheerd groenExtensief beheerd groenBebouwde oppervlakteOnverharde rijwegafbeelding 5Verdeling van de oppervlaktes in een Ecovil-lage, in m2Verharde rijwIntensief behExtensief beBebouwde oOnverhardeVerharde rijwIntensief behExtensief beBebouwde oOnverhardeEcovillages levenscyclus analyse:Vergelijking landgebruikEcovillages1217.50069.95022.050Verharde rijwegIntensief beheerd groenExtensief beheerd groenBebouwde oppervlakteOnverharde rijwegafbeelding 5Verdeling van de oppervlaktes in een Ecovil-lage, in m2afbeelding 6Verdeling van de oppervlaktes in een traditio-nele verkaveling, in m2Verharde rijwegIntensief beheerd groenExtensief beheerd groenBebouwde oppervlakteOnverharde rijwegVerharde rijwegIntensief beheerd groenExtensief beheerd groenBebouwde oppervlakteOnverharde rijwegTraditionele wijk EcovillageVerdelingoppervlaktes(m2)Ecovillage-Levenscyclusanalysewoonwijk, inclusief con-an de totale oppervlaktede helft van de tuinen inos): onder extensief be-eld in bosreservaten) alsamenstelling en humus-ordert de biodiversiteitieve invloed op ecosys-van extensief beheer zijnden van exoten. Maaien,rmen van intensief be-n houdt rekening met deer natuur en aan het her-gekozen voor planten diendigheden. De voorkeurast is er ook plaats voorvestigen)n ecologi-smiddelenminimum.afbeelding 3Bovenaanzicht van een traditionele verkave-lingEcovillage-Levenscyclusanalyseincidentele ingrepen die de vegetatiestructuur en -samenstelling en humus-Extensief beheer bevordert de biodiversiteitin een natuurlandschap en heeft zodoende een positieve invloed op ecosys-temen en de diensten die zij leveren. Voorbeelden van extensief beheer zijnhet verwijderen van opslag uit een heide of het bestrijden van exoten. Maaien,chopperen, plaggen, dunnen en groepenkap zijn vormen van intensief be-heer.» extensieve tuinen: een ecologische siertuin houdt rekening met demenselijke wensen en behoeften; draagt bij aan meer natuur en aan het her-stel van het landschap. In een ecologische tuin wordt gekozen voor planten diezijn aangepast aan de grondsoort en aan de omstandigheden. De voorkeurgaat uit naar streekeigen bomen en struiken. Daarnaast is er ook plaats voorspontane natuur (plantensoorten die zich spontaan vestigen)en voor insecten, vogels en kleine zoogdieren. In een ecologi-sche tuin gebruikt men geen chemische bestrijdingsmiddelenof kunstmest. Er wordt bovendien gestreefd naar een minimumaan tuinafval en een zuinig energie- en waterverbruik.afbeelding 4Bovenaanzicht van de Ecovillage in Meche-lenafbeelding 3Bovenaanzicht van een traditionele verkave-lingExtensief groen 45.500 21.0007.46717.000boswadi en taludhelft ext. tuinen0 geenVerharde rijwegIntensief beheerd groenExtensief beheerd groenBebouwde oppervlakteOnverharde rijwegVerharde rijwegIntensief beheerd groenExtensief beheerd groenBebouwde oppervlakteOnverharde rijwegafbeelding 5Verdeling van de oppervlaktes in een Ecovil-lage, in m2Verharde rijwegIntensief beheerd groenExtensief beheerd groenBebouwde oppervlakteOnverharde rijwegVerharde rijwegIntensief beheerd groen
  • 133. jks afgelegd in Ecovillage < 5 km 1.747.138Traditionele wijk Ecovillage1.747.138 km2.278.582 kmGeredenautokilometers/jaar-23%Ecovillages levenscyclus analyse:Vergelijking personenvervoer• Autodelen: Cambio + Autopia• Groene infrastructuur
  • 134. Ecovillages levenscyclus analyse:Diensten transport: 62% minder km’sEcovillage-Levenscyclusanalysen Ecovillage - km Traditionele wijk - kmchtwagen (vuilnis, 2 x 83 218telwagen (post, 2 x 83 218oter (post, 4 x week) 166 437egd 332 873afbeelding 9In een traditionele wijk leggen de diensten(post en vuilnis) per ophaling 2.100m af, ineen Ecovillage is dat 800mTraditionele wijk Ecovillage332 km873 kmgeredendienstenkilometers/jaar-62%afbeelding 10In een Ecovillage leggen de diensten 62%minder kilometers af dan in een traditionelewijk12 Assumptie Futureproofed 2011, op basis van het grondplan van de EcovillageTraditionele afvalophaling & postbedeling2111 mAfvalophaling & postbedeling in Ecovillage778 m1/3eaI(eTraditionele wijk Ecovillagegeredendienstenkilom
  • 135. lanewoodstreetlanewood
  • 136. Ecovillages levenscyclus analyse:Geen infrastructuur nodig omregenwater op te vangenEcovillage-Levenscyclusanalyseafbeelding 13In een Ecovillage verdwijnt de impact van kunstmatige regenwateropvangvolledigTraditionele wijk Ecovillage36.429 m3Regenwatermetinfrastructuur/jaar0 m3- 100%Ecovillage-LevenscyclusanalyseDoor dit natuurlijk opvangsysteem wordt de impact van infrastructuur om regenwaterte bufferen gereduceerd tot nul.afbeelding 13In een Ecovillage verdwijnt de impact van kunstmatige regenwateropvangvolledigafbeelding 14Traditionele wijk EcovillageRegenwatermetinfrastructuur/jaar0 m3- 100%• Vermindering hoeveelheid• Hergebruik• Buffering
  • 137. - 60%- 92%Ecovillages levenscyclus analyse:Energieverbruik factor 10 beter
  • 138. gebruik, materialen en bouw)iet zichtbaar door cut-off):0,7%chtbaar door cut-off): 0,02%ditionele woonwijk bedraagtunten over 35 jaar.aAnalyse van een traditionele wijk (cut-ofWeging impactentraditionele wijk
  • 139. An(cu(extensief openbaar groen en tuinen).Weging impactenEcovillage
  • 140. Een LCA die de milieu-impact van een Ecovillage en een traditionele wijk meet, stelt onsin staat om een vergelijking te maken tussen de twee types wijken. We stellen vast dat dereductie van de impact van een Ecovillage zich in 90% van de gevallen situeert tussen41% en 75%, met een gemiddelde en mediaan van 58%. Dat is een verbetering metmeer dan een factor twee.- 30%- 58%Ecovillages levenscyclus analyse:Twee keer beter dan traditionele wijk- 58%
  • 141. De gemiddelde leeftijd is 48, het gemiddelde jaarlijks inkomen per huishouden be-draagt 3.550 ¤, 51% van de bevolking is vrouwelijk en 6% van de huishoudens heefteen lidmaatschap bij een natuurvereniging.De natuurwaardeverkenner neemt voor deze gegevens, deze oppervlakte en ditnatuurtype de volgende regulerende ecosysteemdiensten in rekening:WaardeNitraatverwijdering via biolo- 19 kg N / jaar 1.437 ¤ / jaarC opslag in bodem, strooi-sellaag en biomassa5 ton / jaar 987 ¤ / jaarN opslag in bodem 136 ton / jaar 10.065 ¤ / jaarP opslag in biomassa 1 ton / jaar 878 ¤ / jaarstof)50 kg PM / jaar 1.487 ¤ / jaarGeluidsreductie door bossen 54 dBA met bos 19.488 ¤ / jaar15TOTAAL 34.342 ¤ / jaarEcovillages: natuurwaardeverkennerOpenbaar groen levert voor 34.000 € / jaaraan ecosysteem diensten
  • 142. THIS ISOURMOMENT
  • 143. source: Al Gore — “Our choice”
  • 144. Super-grid
  • 145. 0801602403204002007 2010400342(bn$)400 bn$Worldwide fossil fuel ‘subsidy’2011WORLDENERGYOUTLOOKEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • 146. 02356Renewable Fossil5.61.5bn€the Netherlands:4 times more ‘subsidy’ forfossil than for renewable energy(Ecofys, 2011)
  • 147. 100 GW Wind EU• 39 nuclear powerplants• 57 million europeans27 Sep 2012
  • 148. CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER
  • 149. Source: Massive ChangeNew sources of solar income
  • 150. BENEFITS OF NORTH AFRICAN SOLARBoth the EU-27 andNorth Africa willbenefit from theirintroduction into theEuropean Energy grid.40.000 ft
  • 151. High Voltage DC connects it all
  • 152. Roadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon EuropeRoadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe OMA/AMOCompared to currenttransmissioninfrastructure,the requirementsfor transmissioncapacity betweenthe regions definedin the technicalreport aresignificant.INTER-REGIONAL TRANSMISSION REQUIREMENTS
  • 153. Roadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe OMA/AMORoadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon EuropeEU GRID ICONOGRAPHY
  • 154. Roadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe OMA/AMORoadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
  • 155. John DoerrVenture Capitalist (Kleiner Perkins)
  • 156. Managing the innovator’s dilemma0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021ProfitCO2€NEW RECTICEL€AS IS
  • 157. Kodak: world’s first digital camera (1975)
  • 158. Original Macintosh team
  • 159. You,as professionals,voters,consumerscan rise to the occasionand help shapethe next industrial revolution.
  • 160. Start here...
  • 161. think business ...
  • 162. ... and change the world.
  • 163. futureproofed.com

×