Examples of discharge analysis
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Examples discharge analyses (Princeton's hometown stream, the author's hometown stream in NJ, Santa Ana River in CA, the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon).

Examples discharge analyses (Princeton's hometown stream, the author's hometown stream in NJ, Santa Ana River in CA, the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon).

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Examples of discharge analysis Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Stony Brook,Princeton, NJ
  • 2. A rainy day Gageheight (ft) Peak of discharge 8am Wed 4/13 http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nj/nwis/uv/?site_no=014010 00&agency_cd=USGS Peak of rainfall 7pm Tues 4/12 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KTTN.htmlDischarge (cfs)  lag time of 13 hours
  • 3. A really rainy day Hurricane Irene, last August
  • 4. Peak Annual Discharge 1953-2011 Stony Brook at Princeton, NJ 10000 Tropical Storm Doria Hurricane Floyd 9000 8000 Peak annual discharge (cfs) 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 yearSensitivity of recurrence interval analysis to peak events?
  • 5. Recurrence Intervals Stony Brook, all data 100000Discharge (cfs) 10000 1000 1 10 100 1000 10000 Recurrence interval (years) Recurrence Intervals Stony Brook, w/o 2 largest events 100000 10000 1000 1 10 100 1000 10000
  • 6. Recurrence Intervals Stony Brook, all data 100000Discharge (cfs) 10000 RI of 13,500cfs 1000 ~1000 yrs (0.1%) 1 10 100 1000 10000 Recurrence interval (years) Recurrence Intervals Stony Brook, w/o 2 largest events 100000 10000 RI of 13,500cfs ~10000 yrs (0.01%) 1000 1 10 100 1000 10000 Both trendlines fit logarithmically
  • 7. Rahway River, at Springfield, NJ(LG’s hometown stream)
  • 8. 10000 9000 Rahway River at Springfield, NJ Hurricane Floyd Peak Annual Discharge 1938-2010 8000 7000 Hurricane Agnes (as a kid, More work LPG’s basement full of water, and 1980’s – mitigation proposed -cfs 6000 had fun paddling the floating (dikes, retention basins) $$$ sandbox around…) $$$ 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
  • 9. 10000 Hurricane Irene Rahway River at Springfield, NJ 9000 Peak Annual Discharge August 2011 1938-2011 8000 7000cfs 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
  • 10. Cranford inundated by flood waters; power could be out for five to seven days By the Cranford ChronicleMonday August 29, 2011 Cranford has sustained severe damage from Hurricane Irene. Residents wereordered to evacuate on Saturday, and had to be out by 8 p.m. Those who live in a 100-year flood zonearea, the order was expanded to include a 500-year flood zone area…The meandering Rahway River had always been one of the things that drew people to Cranford. Familiesrented canoes from the local canoe club to paddle through town. Joggers ran along winding paths along theriver’s banks. Cranford’s ties to the water helped earn the Union County township the nickname "Venice ofNew Jersey…―But this weekend, the river shocked much of the town when it broke through dikes and overflowed earthendams to flood residential neighborhoods and downtown streets…The damage in Cranford is immense. Areas of Cranford not touched by a flood before were inundated… Arelease from Cranford Police Department on Sunday event said "the Cranford Municipal Building and PoliceDepartment has been shut down due to flooding and severe damage. The Police Department is running out ofa mobile command post."Mayor Dan Aschenbach said the damage is staggering: Nearly 1,300 residences — or more than 15 percentof the township’s houses — have significant flood damage. Of those, nearly 200 houses had water up to thefirst floor. Seven have already been condemned. More than 6,000 residents lost power…
  • 11. Dave Pringle ’88
  • 12. Santa Ana River,Los Angeles area, CA
  • 13. 1938 1969 20071955
  • 14. The 1938 Los Angeles flood (in early 1938) was a major flooding event that wasresponsible for inundating much of Los Angeles, Orange and Riverside counties,California. The flood was caused by a pair of oceanic storms that swept inlandacross the area in February and March 1938, causing abnormal rainfall acrossmuch of coastal Southern California. 113[ to 115 people perished in the flood,which was one of the most catastrophic disasters in area history.[ The floodcaused the destruction of roads, bridges, and buildings, stranded hundreds ofpeople, and resulted in the flooding of three area rivers and their tributaries; thesewere the Santa Ana, Los Angeles and San Gabriel Rivers…The flooding event of 1938 was…considered a50-year flood, meaning that it has a 2 percentchance of occurring any given year. The floodresulted in $40 million of damages, and …heavilyaffected public opinion on the safety of arearivers, and as a result, the US Army Corps ofEngineers was prompted to begin channelizationof the river, and construction of more floodcontrol dams… The Santa Ana River, in flood in 1938.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles_Flood_of_1938
  • 15. 50000 45000 Santa Ana River, Santa Ana, CA Peak Annual Discharge 40000 1923-2010 35000 30000crs 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  • 16. 50000 ―50-yr flood‖ of 1938 45000 40000 Santa Ana River, Santa Ana, CA Peak Annual Discharge 35000 1923-2010 30000 In response:crs 25000 channelization, flood control dams 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  • 17. 50000 ―50-yr flood‖ of 1938 45000 40000 Santa Ana River, Santa Ana, CA Peak Annual Discharge 35000 1923-2010 30000 In response:crs 25000 channelization, flood control dams 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  • 18. Chase scene from “Terminator 2”Santa Ana River - note intense development of thearea, and artificial straightening and channelization of the
  • 19. Santa Ana River with water. without water.
  • 20. 50000 45000 …channelization, however, does not remove all dangers of floods; there were major floods in 40000 1969, 1980, 1983, 1992, and 1994, with the last 35000 said to probably be a 100-year flood 30000 ―100-yrcrs 25000 flood‖ 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  • 21. 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000crs 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  • 22. ―100-yr1000000 flood‖ 100000 ―50-yr flood‖ 10000cfs 1000 Santa Ana River, CA 100 Recurrence Interval 1923-2009 10 1 1 10 100 1000 years
  • 23. Colorado River,southwestern US
  • 24. gauging stationhttp://snobear.colorado.edu/Markw/Tye/grand_canyon_01.html
  • 25. Colorado River at Grand Canyon Peak Annual Discharge 1920-2006 250000 What happened 200000 here? Ideas? 150000cfs 100000 50000 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  • 26. 1953 Daily Discharge for 1 year 2007
  • 27. Glen Canyon Dam
  • 28. Lake PowellGlen Canyon Dam
  • 29. Glen Canyon Dam
  • 30. Lake Powell Glen Canyon Dam
  • 31. Colorado River at Grand Canyon Peak Annual Discharge 1920-2006 250000 Dam goes 200000 on line 150000cfs 100000 50000 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  • 32. 1953pre-dam Daily Discharge for 1 year 2007 post-dam
  • 33. 1000000 Recurrence intervals before and after Glen Canyon DamDischarge (cfs) 100000 pre dam post dam 10000 1 10 100 1000 Recurrence interval (years)
  • 34. Lake Powell Glen Canyon Dam
  • 35. at river mile 84.4(Downstream of Glen Canyon Dam)Sept 2007 ~10,000cfs
  • 36. 2008 High-Flow Experiment from Glen Canyon DamOn March 5, 2008, Secretary of the Interior Dirk Kempthorne pulled the leversat Glen Canyon Dam to release high flows into the Colorado River… Waterwas released through Glen Canyon Dams powerplant and bypass tubes to amaximum amount of approximately 41,500 cubic feet per second for about 60hours. The experiment was designed to enhance the habitat in the canyon andits wildlife, and learn more about these complex natural systems…
  • 37. March 8-9, 2008
  • 38. at river mile 84.4 (Downstream of Glen Canyon Dam) Sept 2007 ~10,000cfsMarch 2008 ~10,000cfs
  • 39. Lake PowellHoover Dam Glen Canyon Dam
  • 40. Lake MeadHoover Dam
  • 41. Hoover Dam
  • 42. Lake Mead from Hoover Dam, down to 55% capacity (April 2012)
  • 43. Water Use in Southwest Heads for a Day of Reckoning NYTimes September 27, 2010
  • 44. NYTimes September 27, 2010 by Felicity BarringerWater Use in Southwest Heads for a Day ofReckoningA once-unthinkable day is looming on the Colorado River…For the first time, federalestimates issued in August indicate that Lake Mead, the heart of the lower Coloradobasin’s water system — irrigating lettuce, onions and wheat in reclaimed corners ofthe Sonoran Desert, and lawns and golf courses from Las Vegas to Los Angeles —could drop below a crucial demarcation line of 1,075 feet.If it does, that will set in motion a temporary distribution plan approved in 2007 bythe seven states with claims to the river and by the federal Bureau ofReclamation, and water deliveries to Arizona and Nevada would be reduced….Thiscould mean more dry lawns, shorter showers and fallow fields in thosestates, although conservation efforts might help them adjust to the cutbacks.California, which has first call on the Colorado River flows in the lower basin, wouldnot be affected…
  • 45. NYTimes July 21, 2011 by Julia PyperA Paradox for the Wests Plumbing System: Flood on theTop, Drought on the BottomThe Colorado River…(is) a life source of the more than 30 million people who rely onit…But in recent years, the Colorado River has become less reliable. Since1999, abnormally low precipitation totals and hot and dry conditions have brought reservoirwater levels close to record lows. The multiyear drought, the most severe sincedocumentation began more than 100 years ago, has put the water supply in the thirstySouthwest in jeopardy.This year, heavy snowpack and spring precipitation have brought the region some relief bypartially refilling the reservoirs. But…the southern end of the Colorado River continues tostop shy of the Sea of Cortez, where it used to run until the late 1990s.The paradox is that this season stands in such stark contrast to the past 11 years ofdrought, highlighting the types of variability that climate change can wreak on thehydrological cycle. "Its not at all uncommon for the basin to have high runoff years in alonger period of drought," said Pamela Adams… "We can see that in both the past 100years of data, plus you can see it in the tree-ring data."Concerns regarding the reliability of the Colorado River system to meet the future needs ofBasin resources in the 21st-century are heightened, given the likelihood of increasingdemand for water throughout the Basin, coupled with projections of reduced supply due toclimate change," wrote the authors of the report..