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Forecasting seo-v1-251010

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Forecasting seo-v1-251010 Forecasting seo-v1-251010 Presentation Transcript

  • Forecasting for SEO
    Neil Walker
    CTO
    Just Search Ltd
  • Who am I?
    Who am I? Neil Walker
    URL: www.seomad.com
    Twitter: @theukseo
    Current Position:
    • Owner of SEO Consultancy Firm SEO MAD LTD
    Background:
    • Chief technical Officer (CTO) for Just Search Ltd
    Experience
    • Worked or been involved with SEO for over 2500 clients in the UK and nearly 5000 clients for Pan Europe.
  • Learning Objectives
    The purpose of this seminar is to show you how to create a factual SEO Business Plan / Case by:
    Predicting organic traffic to your website
    Analysing the potential income
    Studying the investment required
    Working out profit & loss for your business plan.
    Carrying out ongoing tracking of your predictions
    Looking at long term goals by reviewing the potential from ranking between positions 10-5 against 3-1.
  • Google’s Domination
  • Click Through Rates
  • Organic vs PPC Click Through RatesPt.1
  • Organic vs PPC Click Through RatesPt.2
  • Organic Click Through Rates (Eye Tracking 2004)
    People have been interested in CTR for many years.
    This image was highlighted by SEO Researcher.com based on research from Cornell University from 2004
  • Organic Click Through Rates (AOL 2006)
    August of 2006 AOL leaked millions of search records
  • Organic Click Through Rates (Google 2010) Pt.1
    This month GWT enhanced their Top Search Query Function.
    At Just Search we compiled sample data from 100 clients across 1500 key phrases.
  • Organic Click Through Rates (Google 2010) Pt.2
    We took the data and also segmented in by Key Phrase length, again this revealed some interesting information about ranking No.1
  • Organic Click Through Rates (Google 2010) Pt.3
    Finally we took the data and segmented by Brand, General, Location and Specific Product key word searches.
  • Organic CTR
    From the collated data we can now make an educated guess at the Click Through Rate if your website ranks on the first page for a given keyword
    Position 2-10 = CTR 4.85%
  • Conversion Rates
  • Website Conversion Rates Pt1
    PPC is a good way to find out your website’s conversion rate, however if you do not have this luxury, there are a number of sources which can give you an idea of Average Conversion rates.
  • Website Conversion Rates Pt2
    We also researched the Google Analytics accounts for the data of13 websites over a total of 166,699 keywords.
  • Website Conversion Rates Pt3
    From the collated data we can now make an educated guess at the conversion rate of a website
    Average Conversion Rate = 2.9%
  • Keyword Analysis
  • Keyword Analysis Pt.1
    Use a tool to give you the predicted traffic i.e.
    https://adwords.google.com/select/KeywordToolExternal
    Microsoft-advertising-intelligence
    https://adwords.google.com/o/Targeting/Explorer
  • Keyword Analysis Pt.2
    Take a look at your competitors, their demographic, what keywords they are trying to rank for useful tools for this are:
    www.semrush.com
    www.keywordspy.com
    www.alexa.com
    www.google.com/adplanner
  • Keyword Analysis Pt.3
    We now have the following data:
    • CTR on Ranking Organically between 2-10
    • Average Website Conversion Rate
    • Exact predicted Monthly Traffic per keyword
    We now need:
    • Potential Timescale to gain results
    • Average Gross Profit per service / product.
    • Average Order Values
  • Income, Investment & Timescales
  • Predicting Timescales Pt1
    This requires expertise!!
    • If you’re client-side, then get estimated timescales from a potential SEO provider
    • If you’re agency-side, then look at all the factors required to gain a ranking and use your experience to predict a timeline.
  • Predicting Timescales Pt2
    Research shows the following can affect timescales within SEO.
    Increase in Links
    Age of Site
  • Predicting Timescales Pt3
    Further research also shows the following affecting factors:
    Industry
    No of competing Pages.
  • Investment Required
    Again client-side – You will get potential cost from your SEO Provider.
    Agency-side – You need to think about:
  • Potential Income
    Finally, to put your business plan together you need to know your potential Gross Profit %.
    • Either an average GP
    • Or even better a GP per product.
    You will also need to look at your potential Average Order Values or Product / Service Prices
    • Carry out market research
    • E-commerce site / service site
  • Quick Overview
    You should now have the following data:
    • First Page CTR
    • Website Conversion Rate
    • Potential Keywords & Traffic
    • Predicted Timescales
    • Investment Required
    • Average Order Value
    • Average Gross Profit
  • Financials
  • Putting it together
    Use Excel to put all your information together
  • Pivot Table
    Create a Pivot Table
    Analyse the potential income you will start receiving for each keyword for each month.
  • Investment
    Your SEO Company advises it will cost you £2500 pcm
    Will you make a profit?
    How long will it take you to break even?
    How long will it take to pay back your investment?
  • Profit & Loss Year 1
  • Payback
  • 2 Year Profit Forecast
  • Tracking
  • Ongoing Tracking
    Use Google Analytics
    Set up Conversion Goals
    Set up Goal Funnels
    Set up E-commerce tracking (if applicable)
    Set up Webmaster tools and monitor CTR
    Set up web ranking reports to monitor positions
    This will allow you to track the Business Plan you are working towards
  • Google Analytics – Custom Reporting Pt.1
    You can drill down by Source, then display:
    • Visits
    • Transaction
    • Product Revenue
    By Keyword.
    This tells you which keywords are making money!
  • Let’s look at Real Data !
  • Real Data – CTR & Conversion(Month 11)
  • Predictions vs.. Actual Data
  • Actual P&L Year 1
  • Actual Payback
  • Future Goals
  • Traffic vs.. Investment
    • 12 months later you are ranking on the first page
    • Average Ranking positions of 10 to 5.
    • How much is a top 2 position worth to you?
    • How much are you willing to spend?
  • Traffic vs.. Investment
    • 23 x more traffic in No.1
    • 5.6 x more traffic in No.2
    • 3.7 x more traffic in No.3
    It is very likely that companies may need to double or triple SEO budgets to gain positions 1 & 2, this is well worth it!
  • Overview
  • Learning Objectives - Recap
  • Question / Debate