Forecasting for SEO Neil Walker CTO Just Search Ltd
Who am I? Who am I? Neil Walker URL: www.seomad.com Twitter: @theukseo Current Position:
Owner of SEO Consultancy Firm SEO MAD LTD
Chief technical Officer (CTO) for Just Search Ltd
Worked or been involved with SEO for over 2500 clients in the UK and nearly 5000 clients for Pan Europe.
Learning Objectives The purpose of this seminar is to show you how to create a factual SEO Business Plan / Case by: Predicting organic traffic to your website Analysing the potential income Studying the investment required Working out profit & loss for your business plan. Carrying out ongoing tracking of your predictions Looking at long term goals by reviewing the potential from ranking between positions 10-5 against 3-1.
Click Through Rates
Organic vs PPC Click Through RatesPt.1
Organic vs PPC Click Through RatesPt.2
Organic Click Through Rates (Eye Tracking 2004) People have been interested in CTR for many years. This image was highlighted by SEO Researcher.com based on research from Cornell University from 2004
Organic Click Through Rates (AOL 2006) August of 2006 AOL leaked millions of search records
Organic Click Through Rates (Google 2010) Pt.1 This month GWT enhanced their Top Search Query Function. At Just Search we compiled sample data from 100 clients across 1500 key phrases.
Organic Click Through Rates (Google 2010) Pt.2 We took the data and also segmented in by Key Phrase length, again this revealed some interesting information about ranking No.1
Organic Click Through Rates (Google 2010) Pt.3 Finally we took the data and segmented by Brand, General, Location and Specific Product key word searches.
Organic CTR From the collated data we can now make an educated guess at the Click Through Rate if your website ranks on the first page for a given keyword Position 2-10 = CTR 4.85%
Website Conversion Rates Pt1 PPC is a good way to find out your website’s conversion rate, however if you do not have this luxury, there are a number of sources which can give you an idea of Average Conversion rates.
Website Conversion Rates Pt2 We also researched the Google Analytics accounts for the data of13 websites over a total of 166,699 keywords.
Website Conversion Rates Pt3 From the collated data we can now make an educated guess at the conversion rate of a website Average Conversion Rate = 2.9%
Keyword Analysis Pt.1 Use a tool to give you the predicted traffic i.e. https://adwords.google.com/select/KeywordToolExternal Microsoft-advertising-intelligence https://adwords.google.com/o/Targeting/Explorer
Keyword Analysis Pt.2 Take a look at your competitors, their demographic, what keywords they are trying to rank for useful tools for this are: www.semrush.com www.keywordspy.com www.alexa.com www.google.com/adplanner
Keyword Analysis Pt.3 We now have the following data:
CTR on Ranking Organically between 2-10
Average Website Conversion Rate
Exact predicted Monthly Traffic per keyword
We now need:
Potential Timescale to gain results
Average Gross Profit per service / product.
Average Order Values
Income, Investment & Timescales
Predicting Timescales Pt1 This requires expertise!!
If you’re client-side, then get estimated timescales from a potential SEO provider
If you’re agency-side, then look at all the factors required to gain a ranking and use your experience to predict a timeline.
Predicting Timescales Pt2 Research shows the following can affect timescales within SEO. Increase in Links Age of Site
Predicting Timescales Pt3 Further research also shows the following affecting factors: Industry No of competing Pages.
Investment Required Again client-side – You will get potential cost from your SEO Provider. Agency-side – You need to think about:
Potential Income Finally, to put your business plan together you need to know your potential Gross Profit %.
Either an average GP
Or even better a GP per product.
You will also need to look at your potential Average Order Values or Product / Service Prices
Carry out market research
E-commerce site / service site
Quick Overview You should now have the following data:
First Page CTR
Website Conversion Rate
Potential Keywords & Traffic
Average Order Value
Average Gross Profit
Putting it together Use Excel to put all your information together
Pivot Table Create a Pivot Table Analyse the potential income you will start receiving for each keyword for each month.
Investment Your SEO Company advises it will cost you £2500 pcm Will you make a profit? How long will it take you to break even? How long will it take to pay back your investment?
Profit & Loss Year 1
2 Year Profit Forecast
Ongoing Tracking Use Google Analytics Set up Conversion Goals Set up Goal Funnels Set up E-commerce tracking (if applicable) Set up Webmaster tools and monitor CTR Set up web ranking reports to monitor positions This will allow you to track the Business Plan you are working towards
Google Analytics – Custom Reporting Pt.1 You can drill down by Source, then display:
By Keyword. This tells you which keywords are making money!
Let’s look at Real Data !
Real Data – CTR & Conversion(Month 11)
Predictions vs.. Actual Data
Actual P&L Year 1
Traffic vs.. Investment
12 months later you are ranking on the first page
Average Ranking positions of 10 to 5.
How much is a top 2 position worth to you?
How much are you willing to spend?
Traffic vs.. Investment
23 x more traffic in No.1
5.6 x more traffic in No.2
3.7 x more traffic in No.3
It is very likely that companies may need to double or triple SEO budgets to gain positions 1 & 2, this is well worth it!