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Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
Forecasting seo-v1-251010
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Forecasting seo-v1-251010

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  • 1. Forecasting for SEO Neil Walker CTO Just Search Ltd
  • 2. Who am I? Who am I? Neil Walker URL: www.seomad.com Twitter: @theukseo Current Position: • Owner of SEO Consultancy Firm SEO MAD LTD Background: • Chief technical Officer (CTO) for Just Search Ltd Experience • Worked or been involved with SEO for over 2500 clients in the UK and nearly 5000 clients for Pan Europe.
  • 3. Learning Objectives The purpose of this seminar is to show you how to create a factual SEO Business Plan / Case by: 1. Predicting organic traffic to your website 2. Analysing the potential income 3. Studying the investment required 4. Working out profit & loss for your business plan. 5. Carrying out ongoing tracking of your predictions 6. Looking at long term goals by reviewing the potential from ranking between positions 10- 5 against 3-1.
  • 4. Google’s Domination
  • 5. Click Through Rates
  • 6. Organic vs PPC Click Through Rates Pt.1
  • 7. Organic vs PPC Click Through Rates Pt.2
  • 8. Organic Click Through Rates (Eye Tracking 2004) People have been interested in CTR for many years. This image was highlighted by SEO Researcher.com based on research from Cornell University from 2004
  • 9. Organic Click Through Rates (AOL 2006) 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 CTR Position in Google CTR vs. Organic Position August of 2006 AOL leaked millions of search records
  • 10. Organic Click Through Rates (Google 2010) Pt.1 This month GWT enhanced their Top Search Query Function. At Just Search we compiled sample data from 100 clients across 1500 key phrases.
  • 11. Organic Click Through Rates (Google 2010) Pt.2 We took the data and also segmented in by Key Phrase length, again this revealed some interesting information about ranking No.1
  • 12. Organic Click Through Rates (Google 2010) Pt.3 Finally we took the data and segmented by Brand, General, Location and Specific Product key word searches.
  • 13. Organic CTR From the collated data we can now make an educated guess at the Click Through Rate if your website ranks on the first page for a given keyword Position 2-10 = CTR 4.85%
  • 14. Conversion Rates
  • 15. Website Conversion Rates Pt1 PPC is a good way to find out your website’s conversion rate, however if you do not have this luxury, there are a number of sources which can give you an idea of Average Conversion rates. 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% Low Typical WCR High Typical WCR Low Finance WCR High Finance WCR Low E-commerce High E-commerce Average Conversionrate Type of Website Website Conversion Rates
  • 16. Website Conversion Rates Pt2 We also researched the Google Analytics accounts for the data of13 websites over a total of 166,699 keywords.
  • 17. Website Conversion Rates Pt3 From the collated data we can now make an educated guess at the conversion rate of a website Average Conversion Rate = 2.9%
  • 18. Keyword Analysis
  • 19. Keyword Analysis Pt.1 Use a tool to give you the predicted traffic i.e. 1. https://adwords.google.com/select/KeywordToolExternal 2. Microsoft-advertising-intelligence 3. https://adwords.google.com/o/Targeting/Explorer
  • 20. Keyword Analysis Pt.2 Take a look at your competitors, their demographic, what keywords they are trying to rank for useful tools for this are: 1. www.semrush.com 2. www.keywordspy.com 3. www.alexa.com 4. www.google.com/adplanner
  • 21. Keyword Analysis Pt.3 We now have the following data: CTR on Ranking Organically between 2-10 Average Website Conversion Rate Exact predicted Monthly Traffic per keyword We now need: Potential Timescale to gain results Average Gross Profit per service / product. Average Order Values
  • 22. Income, Investment & Timescales
  • 23. Predicting Timescales Pt1 This requires expertise!! -If you’re client-side, then get estimated timescales from a potential SEO provider -If you’re agency-side, then look at all the factors required to gain a ranking and use your experience to predict a timeline. Ranking Factors Age of site No. of pages No. of links Type of keyword Type of competition Internal linking Resource required On Page Work
  • 24. Predicting Timescales Pt2 Research shows the following can affect timescales within SEO. 1. Increase in Links 2. Age of Site
  • 25. Predicting Timescales Pt3 Further research also shows the following affecting factors: 1. Industry 2. No of competing Pages.
  • 26. Investment Required Again client-side – You will get potential cost from your SEO Provider. Agency-side – You need to think about: Investment factors On Page Work Required Link Building Budgets Link Acquisition Hours Content Writing Costs Offline Investment Costs
  • 27. Potential Income Finally, to put your business plan together you need to know your potential Gross Profit %.  Either an average GP  Or even better a GP per product. You will also need to look at your potential Average Order Values or Product / Service Prices  Carry out market research  E-commerce site / service site
  • 28. Quick Overview You should now have the following data:  First Page CTR Website Conversion Rate Potential Keywords & Traffic  Predicted Timescales Investment Required Average Order Value Average Gross Profit
  • 29. Financials
  • 30. Putting it together Use Excel to put all your information together Keyword Timescale (Months) Local Monthly Searches Organic % CTR No. of Visits pcm Conversion Rate No. of Sales pcm Average Order value Income GP% Profit trainers 9 201000 65.00% 4.85% 6337 2.90% 183.76 £43 £7,811.60 60% £4,686.96 running shoes 5 60500 65.00% 4.85% 1907 2.90% 55.31 £39 £2,131.67 60% £1,279.00 puma trainers 8 27100 65.00% 4.85% 854 2.90% 24.78 £73 £1,812.82 60% £1,087.69 trainers sale 3 5400 65.00% 4.85% 170 2.90% 4.94 £35 £172.79 60% £103.67 sportswear 3 33100 65.00% 4.85% 1043 2.90% 30.26 £27 £830.06 60% £498.03 crocs 9 110000 65.00% 4.85% 3468 2.90% 100.56 £40 £4,044.71 60% £2,426.83 football boots 7 135000 65.00% 4.85% 4256 2.90% 123.42 £46 £5,700.79 60% £3,420.47 nike trainers 5 70000 65.00% 4.85% 2207 2.90% 64.00 £46 £2,955.96 60% £1,773.58 reebok trainers 3 18100 65.00% 4.85% 571 2.90% 16.55 £46 £754.07 60% £452.44 golf shoes 5 60500 65.00% 4.85% 1907 2.90% 55.31 £57 £3,134.45 60% £1,880.67 basketball shoes 4 22200 65.00% 4.85% 700 2.90% 20.30 £47 £953.90 60% £572.34 sale trainers 3 720 65.00% 4.85% 23 2.90% 0.66 £47 £31.20 60% £18.72 sports clothing 2 8100 65.00% 4.85% 255 2.90% 7.41 £33 £247.78 60% £148.67 england away shirt 4 2900 65.00% 4.85% 91 2.90% 2.65 £34 £89.08 60% £53.45 karrimor 7 20500 65.00% 4.85% 646 2.90% 18.74 £53 £1,002.30 60% £601.38 tennis rackets 6 27100 65.00% 4.85% 854 2.90% 24.78 £29 £723.69 60% £434.22 football tops 4 5400 65.00% 4.85% 170 2.90% 4.94 £74 £366.81 60% £220.08 adidas predator football boots 2 3600 65.00% 4.85% 113 2.90% 3.29 £50 £165.91 60% £99.55 sports wear 3 8100 65.00% 4.85% 255 2.90% 7.41 £26 £190.98 60% £114.59 819320 25829 749.04 £33,120.58 £19,872.35
  • 31. Pivot Table Create a Pivot Table Analyse the potential income you will start receiving for each keyword for each month. Row Labels 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 trainers £7,812 running shoes £2,132 puma trainers £1,813 trainers sale £173 sportswear £830 crocs £4,045 football boots £5,701 nike trainers £2,956 reebok trainers £754 golf shoes £3,134 basketball shoes £954 sale trainers £31 sports clothing £248 england away shirt £89 karrimor £1,002 tennis rackets £724 football tops £367 adidas predator football boots £166 sports wear £191 Grand Total £414 £1,979 £1,410 £8,222 £724 £6,703 £1,813 £11,856
  • 32. Investment Your SEO Company advises it will cost you £2500 pcm Will you make a profit? How long will it take you to break even? How long will it take to pay back your investment?
  • 33. Profit & Loss Year 1 Internet World 2010 P&L Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 Month 7 Month 8 Month 9 Month 10 Month 11 Month 12 Year 1 Average Income £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ 2 Month Keywords - 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 4,551 379 3 Month Keywords - - 1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979 19,791 1,649 4 Month Keywords - - - 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 12,688 1,057 5 Month Keywords - - - - 8,222 8,222 8,222 8,222 8,222 8,222 8,222 8,222 65,777 5,481 6 Month Keywords - - - - - 1,363 1,363 1,363 1,363 1,363 1,363 1,363 9,541 795 7 Month Keywords - - - - - - 6,703 6,703 6,703 6,703 6,703 6,703 40,219 3,352 8 Month Keywords - - - - - - - 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 9,064 755 9 Month Keywords - - - - - - - - 11,856 11,856 11,856 11,856 47,425 3,952 Total - 414 2,393 3,803 12,025 13,388 20,091 21,904 33,760 33,760 33,760 33,760 209,055 17,421 COS Cost of Sale (40%) - 165 957 1,521 4,810 5,355 8,036 8,761 13,504 13,504 13,504 13,504 83,622 6,969 Total - 165 957 1,521 4,810 5,355 8,036 8,761 13,504 13,504 13,504 13,504 83,622 6,969 Total Gross Profit - 248 1,436 2,282 7,215 8,033 12,054 13,142 20,256 20,256 20,256 20,256 125,433 10,453 Sales & Marketing Costs SEO Costs 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 30,000 2,500 - Net Profit - 2,500 - 2,252 - 1,064 - 218 4,715 5,533 9,554 10,642 17,756 17,756 17,756 17,756 95,433 7,953 Accumulative Net Profit (2,500) (4,752) (5,816) (6,035) (1,320) 4,213 13,767 24,409 42,165 59,921 77,677 95,433
  • 34. Payback (10,000) (5,000) 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 Month 7 Month 8 Month 9 Month 10 Month 11 Month 12 SEO Payback Accumlative Profit Net Profit
  • 35. 2 Year Profit Forecast -4,000 -2,000 - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 NetProfit 2 Year Profit Forecast
  • 36. Tracking
  • 37. Ongoing Tracking 1. Use Google Analytics 2. Set up Conversion Goals 3. Set up Goal Funnels 4. Set up E-commerce tracking (if applicable) 5. Set up Webmaster tools and monitor CTR 6. Set up web ranking reports to monitor positions This will allow you to track the Business Plan you are working towards
  • 38. Google Analytics – Custom Reporting Pt.1 You can drill down by Source, then display: Visits Transaction Product Revenue By Keyword. This tells you which keywords are making money!
  • 39. Let’s look at Real Data !
  • 40. Real Data – CTR & Conversion (Month 11) Keyword Local Search Volume Visits CTR Transactions Conversion Rate Income pcm Avg. Order Value trainers 201000 2884 1.43% 136 4.72% £8,153 £60 running shoes 60500 1778 2.94% 74 4.16% £2,586 £35 puma trainers 27100 1566 5.78% 74 4.73% £41,455 £560 trainers sale 5400 2387 44.20% 87 3.64% £3,009 £35 sportswear 33100 2772 8.37% 62 2.24% £1,901 £31 crocs 110000 1529 1.39% 9 0.59% £187 £21 football boots 135000 1516 1.12% 87 5.74% £3,879 £45 nike trainers 70000 1516 2.17% 62 4.09% £2,660 £43 reebok trainers 18100 1417 7.83% 49 3.46% £1,915 £39 golf shoes 60500 1056 1.75% 12 1.14% £348 £29 basketball shoes 22200 1032 4.65% 62 6.01% £4,189 £68 sale trainers 720 557 77.36% 25 4.49% £823 £33 running shoes 40300 1778 4.41% 74 4.16% £2,586 £35 sports clothing 8100 509 6.28% 37 7.27% £1,889 £51 england away shirt 2900 248 8.55% 24 9.68% £1,579 £66 karrimor 20500 547 2.67% 49 8.96% £1,429 £29 tennis rackets 27100 323 1.19% 24 7.43% £1,317 £55 football tops 5400 280 5.19% 25 8.93% £1,330 £53 adidas predator football boots 3600 418 11.61% 25 5.98% £1,001 £40 sports wear 8100 506 6.25% 25 4.94% £848 £34 10.26% 5.12% £83,085
  • 41. Predictions vs.. Actual Data Subject Prediction Real Data (Month 11) Difference Visits for keywords 25,829 24,619 - 1,210 No. of sales 749 1,022 + 273 Average CTR 4.85% 10.26% + 5.41% Average Conversion Rate 2.90% 5.12% + 2.22% Income £33,120 £83,085 + £49,965 Average Order Value £44 £68 +£24
  • 42. Actual P&L Year 1 Internet World 2010 P&L Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 Month 7 Month 8 Month 9 Month 10 Month 11 Month 12 Year 1 Average Income £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ 2 Month Keywords - - 415 1,049 2,061 1,264 2,204 1,666 2,602 1,606 2,890 15,757 1,432 3 Month Keywords 2,379 845 4,694 4,709 6,830 5,544 5,910 10,166 10,365 18,318 8,497 78,256 7,114 4 Month Keywords 659 868 302 699 590 1,124 302 1,157 5,481 3,860 7,098 22,140 2,013 5 Month Keywords - 720 4,006 4,574 3,863 3,241 1,033 7,153 18,026 12,326 5,595 60,537 5,503 6 Month Keywords - - 211 - - - - 1,239 1,859 - 1,317 4,627 421 7 Month Keywords 2,866 12,607 6,460 - 965 6,304 6,283 3,350 4,076 26,764 5,308 74,982 6,817 8 Month Keywords 709 393 - - 249 224 1,064 - 771 1,783 41,455 46,646 4,241 9 Month Keywords - 9,328 10,655 9,360 7,494 6,760 6,637 4,499 13,100 7,943 8,340 84,116 7,647 Total 6,612 24,761 26,744 20,391 22,051 24,460 23,434 29,229 56,281 72,600 80,499 - 387,061 32,255 COS Cost of Sale (40%) 2,645 9,904 10,697 8,156 8,820 9,784 9,374 11,691 22,512 29,040 32,200 - 154,824 12,902 Total 2,645 9,904 10,697 8,156 8,820 9,784 9,374 11,691 22,512 29,040 32,200 - 154,824 12,902 Total Gross Profit 3,967 14,857 16,046 12,234 13,231 14,676 14,061 17,537 33,768 43,560 48,300 - 232,237 19,353 Sales & Marketing Costs Existing Income 6,612 6,612 6,612 6,612 6,612 6,612 6,612 6,612 6,612 6,612 6,612 6,612 79,344 6,612 SEO Costs 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 30,000 2,500 Total 9,112 9,112 9,112 9,112 9,112 9,112 9,112 9,112 9,112 9,112 9,112 9,112 109,344 9,112 - Net Profit - 5,145 5,745 6,934 3,122 4,119 5,564 4,949 8,425 24,656 34,448 39,188 - 9,112 122,893 10,241 Accumulative Net Profit (5,145) 600 7,534 10,656 14,775 20,339 25,287 33,713 58,369 92,817 132,005 122,893
  • 43. Actual Payback -10,000 -5,000 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 SEO Payback Net Profit Payback
  • 44. Future Goals
  • 45. Traffic vs.. Investment 12 months later you are ranking on the first page Average Ranking positions of 10 to 5.  How much is a top 2 position worth to you?  How much are you willing to spend?
  • 46. Traffic vs.. Investment 0% 500% 1000% 1500% 2000% 2500% 6-10 5 4 3 2 1 Increase in Traffic vs.. Increase in Investment Traffic Increase % Investment Increase %  23 x more traffic in No.1  5.6 x more traffic in No.2  3.7 x more traffic in No.3 It is very likely that companies may need to double or triple SEO budgets to gain positions 1 & 2, this is well worth it!
  • 47. Overview
  • 48. Learning Objectives - Recap Information Predicting Organic Traffic to your website Analysing the Potential Income Studying the investment required Working out profit & loss for your Business Plan. Carrying out ongoing tracking of your predictions Looking at long term goals by reviewing the potential from ranking between positions 10-5 against 3-1.
  • 49. Question / Debate

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