LDT Future of Learning 2010

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  • 1. The Future of Learning (Yours) Eric Grant, LDT 05 Futurist, Edupreneur email: [email_address] twitter: senatorgrant
  • 2. Overview
    • Lecture: A Bit of Context for Today
    • 3. Discussion: Education in the Flat World
    • 4. Lecture: Tools Used by the Pros
    • 5. Activity: Scenario Development
    • 6. Lecture: Products of the Pros
    • 7. Discussion: What's Next?
  • 8. Suggested Reading
    • The World is Flat by Thomas Friedman
        • Optional: Education in the Flat World
    • Shift Happens 2.0
    • 9. Here Comes Everybody by Clay Shirky
    • 10. Wikinomics by Dan Tapscott
    • 11. Disrupting Class by Clayton Christensen
    • 12. A Whole New Mind by Daniel Pink
    • 13. Generations by Strauss and Howe
  • 14. Context for Today or: Explicit Learning Goals
    • Most likely, the Future is not that different from now
      • Demographics change, capacities increase, but humans still learn, work, play, love, and die
    • The Future is impossible to predict , and if you try, you will be wrong, and probably be ridiculed
      • But the future can be forecasted through a variety of fuzzy arts and rigorous methods
    • An unchanged Future is boring and useless
      • But talking about the extreme possibilities is much more interesting and generates better strategies
  • 15. Futurists, aka Futurismologists
    • Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology is the science, art and practice of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them.
    • 16. Futures Studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel.
    • 17. The discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends.
  • 18. Some Fun Foresight Shapes The future can often be depicted in terms of pendulum shifts The future sometimes looks like a long tail Source: Longtail.com Source: Wikipedia
  • 19. Some Fun Foresight Shapes The S-Curve is popular for forecasting adoption of new technologies and products But the Hype Cycle is usually more accurate Source: Gartner via Wikipedia Source: Wikipedia
  • 20. Some Fun Foresight Shapes The future can be depicted as a “cone of uncertainty” It becomes more uncertain the further out you try to look Trends that seem obvious now become wilder and more unpredictable
  • 21. Tools of the Pros: Trend Analysis
    • collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern, or trend, in the information
    • 22. often coupled with data visualizations, such as maps
  • 23. Tools of the Pros: the Delphi Method
    • systematic, interactive method which relies on a panel of independent experts
    • 24. experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds
    • 25. after each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments
    • 26. participants are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of the group
    • 27. it is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer
  • 28. Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning and our learning activity for today
    • (orginally) simulation games created by analysts for policy or military uses
    • 29. (now) plausible, but unexpectedly important situations and problems that exist in some small form in the present day, combined with narratives about where those situations may lead
  • 30. Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning Step 1: Choose a Focal Issue (and Timeframe)
    • example: How can we design learning environments for 2020 to ensure that all students succeed?
    • 31. example: How can we support continuing / lifelong learning in 2020?
    • 32. example: How can we ensure equity and access for all students in 2020?
    • 33. example: How can organizations maximize the potential of workers in 2020?
  • 34. Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning Step 2: Choose Your Critical Uncertainties
    • Make some basic assumptions
      • ex: the Earth will still support life in 2020
      • 35. ex: bandwidth, storage, and data will continue to increase over the next 10 years
    • Create a list of critical uncertainties that have identifiable possibile outcomes, and choose 2 that will work well together
      • ex: What will learning outcomes be? Fluid? Static?
      • 36. ex. What will the purpose of education be? Citizens? Workers?
      • 37. ex: How will teachers be trained in 10 years?
      • 38. ex: Will the world become flatter or isolated?
      • 39. ex: Where will learning happen?
    • Tip: Do not assign value judgements to critical uncertainties
    • 40. Arrange your critical uncertainties in a Cartesian plane (aka 2x2)
    Focal Issue: How can we design learning environments that ensure success for all learners in 2020? Learning Outcomes Where Learning Takes Place Any Time, Any Place In School Static Fluid
  • 41. Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning Step 3: Imagine details of each quadrant Focal Issue: How can we design learning environments that ensure success for all learners in 2020? Learning Outcomes Where Learning Takes Place Any Time, Any Place In School Static Fluid Scenario B: Supply and Demand for Democracy Scenario A: America Competes Scenario C: Hot, Flat, and Crowded Scenario D: Teacher-At-Large
  • 42. Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning Other Steps
    • Step 4: Create scenarios (stories) explaining how each quadrant might happen
    • 43. Step 5: Figure out how your (organization, institution, family, project, etc) could act most effectively in each situation
    • 44. Step 6: Over the next year or two, watch for signs that one of these scenarios might be playing out
    • 45. Step 7: Revise your scenarios every few years
  • 46. Learning Activity
    • As a large group, brainstorm 4 - 5 focal issues (5 minutes)
    • 47. Self-select into small groups to address one of the focal issues (20 minutes)
      • Identify several critical uncertainties; narrow down to 2
      • 48. Map to 2x2 and identify characteristics of each quadrant
    • Regroup to report out
  • 49. Products of the Pros: The Map of Future Forces
    • Trend Analysis and Visualization
    • 50. First Version 2006 to 2016 (2006)
    • 51. Second Version 2020 (March 2009)
    • 52. Created by KnowledgeWorks Foundation and Institute for the Future
    • 53. http://www.kwfdn.org/map
  • 54. Products of the Pros: Map of Future Forces 2020 Six Drivers of Change
      • Altered Bodies
      • 55. Amplified Organizations
      • 56. The Maker Economy
      • 57. Platforms for Resilience
      • 58. A New Civic Discourse
      • 59. Pattern Recognition
  • 60. Products of the Pros: Horizon Report
    • Trend Analaysis and Delphi Method, produced via Wiki
    • 61. Annual; latest version January 2010
    • 62. Produced by New Media Consortium and Educause Learning Intiative
    • 63. http://horizon.nmc.org/wiki/Main_Page
  • 64. Products of the Pros: The 2009 Horizon Report
    • Increasing globalization continues to affect the way we work, collaborate, and communicate
    • 65. The notion of collective intelligence is redefining how we think about ambiguity and imprecision
    • 66. Experience with and affinity for games as learning tools is an increasingly universal characteristic among those entering higher education and the workforce
    • 67. Visualization tools are making information more meaningful and insights more intuitive
    • 68. As more than one billion phones are produced each year, mobile phones are benefiting from unprecedented innovation, driven by global competition
  • 69. What's Next?
    • Do your scenarios fit with the forecasts of the pros?
    • 70. How can all of this help us?