The document discusses factors influencing demand for renewable energy in Egypt, with a focus on solar thermal energy. It presents current and projected future energy usage and generation in Egypt. The document proposes schemes for increasing electricity from private renewable sources, outlining potential penetration rates of 3%, 5%, 7%, and 10% and the corresponding impacts on annual energy usage and power generation. Hybridization of existing fossil fuel power plants with solar fields is also discussed as a way to generate electricity from renewable sources while reducing fossil fuel usage.

1. Mohamed Salah Elsobki (Jr.)
Faculty of Engineering – Cairo University
Energy Research Center
June 11, 2013
Date
Factors Influencing the demand on
Renewable energy
with focus on solar thermal energy

2. Factors Influencing the demand on
Renewable energy
• Supply
• Demand
• Legislations

3. 56
60
63
67
71
75
80
85
90
95
101
107
113
120
127
135
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
Millionton
From fuel products From N.G.
From Hydro From Wind
From Nuclear Local energy needs
Local energy needs with energy eff. Additional needed energy
Renewable - current 3000 MW
and target 13500 MW (9%) (2022)
Nuclear up 4000-5000
MW (6%) (2022)
Reduce energy use by 8,3%
(2022)
Retain Oil and NG levels
of production (40%)
(2022)
94% from fossil fuel and NG
5% hydro
1% from wind and others
‫المستقبل‬ ‫في‬ ‫المتوقع‬ ، ً‫ا‬‫حالي‬ ، ً‫ا‬‫سابق‬ ‫مصر‬ ‫في‬ ‫الطاقة‬ ‫وضع‬
The Status of Energy in Egypt: The Present, Past and Future

4. Objective
• Investigating the development of
electricity generation with less fuel by
integrating solar fields into existing
conventional thermal power plants.
• This will lead to electricity generation
form a RE source and reduce the
current amount of fossil fuels used.
Hybridization of Thermal Power Stations
with Solar Collection Fields ??

5. Annual Capacity based on stations type till
Year 2021/2022

6. Annual Energy Generated based on stations
type till Year 2021/2022

7. Annual Fuel Needs based on stations type till
Year 2021/2022

8. Ranking Criteria
Selection procedure
1. Age of the fossil plant,
2. Average capacity factor of the fossil plant,
3. DNI resource available at the plant site,
4. Land available surrounding the existing plant
– Available land inside stations boarder
– Available land inside and outside stations boarder
5. Topography of that land, and
6. Solar-use efficiency that could be expected if the plant
were augmented with a solar field.
– Parabolic Trough
– Power Tower

9. Final Ranking Results, Higher to lower score
(Parabolic Trough)
RatingScorePower Plant
Excellent4.9Kuraymat 1 (C.C)
Excellent4.7Kuraymat steam
Excellent4.7Oyoun Mousa
Excellent4.6Kuraymat 2 (C.C)
Excellent4.4Cairo South I
Excellent4.2Nubaria (1, 2, 3)
Excellent4.05Abu Sultan
Good4Walidia
Good3.85El-Atf
Good3.8Arish
Good3.8Wadi Hof
Good3.8Ataka
Good3.65Damietta
Good3.45Mahmoudia
Good3.35Damanhour
Good3.35Damanhour Ext

10. Walidia Steam Power Station
• A total of 41,649.67 m2 or 10.3 Acres are available
inside the station boarders to be covered by solar
collectors. It consists of two units, 312 MW each.

11. Walidia Solar Field annual Energy Flow

12. TOTAL
INDUSTRY
33%
4%12%
8%
38%
5%
Currently in 2012 TOTAL INDUSTRY
AGRICULTURE
PUBLIC UTILITIES+LIGHTING
COMMERCIAL & OTHERS
RESIDENTIAL
GOVERNMENT
‫إ‬‫فى‬ ‫الكهربائية‬ ‫الطاقة‬ ‫ستخدام‬،ً‫ا‬‫حالي‬ ،ً‫ا‬‫مصرسابق‬‫في‬ ‫المتوقع‬‫المستقبل‬
Electric energy use in Egypt :Past, Present and Future
16/06/2013 08:2612
Energy in Egypt .. going where Mohamed Salah Elsobki (Jr.)

13. ‫إنتاج‬ ‫تكلفة‬‫الطاقة‬‫الكهربائية‬
Cost of Electric Energy Generation
U.S. Average Levelized Costs (2010 $/megawatthour) for Plants Entering Service in
2017
Plant Type
Capacity Factor
(%)
Levelized Capital
Cost
Fixed
O&M
Variable O&M
(including fuel)
Transmissio
n
Investment
Total System
Levelized
Cost
Legend
Dispatchable Technologies
Conventional Coal 85 64.9 4 27.5 1.2 97.7 High
Advanced Coal 85 74.1 6.6 29.1 1.2 110.9
Advanced Coal with CCS 85 91.8 9.3 36.4 1.2 138.8 Low
Natural Gas-fired
Conventional Combined Cycle 87 17.2 1.9 45.8 1.2 66.1 Wind
Advanced Combined Cycle 87 17.5 1.9 42.4 1.2 63.1
Advanced CC with CCS 87 34.3 4 50.6 1.2 90.1 Solar
Conventional Combustion
Turbine 30 45.3 2.7 76.4 3.6 127.9
Advanced Combustion Turbine 30 31 2.6 64.7 3.6 101.8
Advanced Nuclear 90 87.5 11.3 11.6 1.1 111.4
Geothermal 91 75.1 11.9 9.6 1.5 98.2
Biomass 83 56 13.8 44.3 1.3 115.4
Non-Dispatchable Technologies
Wind 33 82.5 9.8 0 3.8 96
Solar PV 25 140.7 7.7 0 4.3 152.7
Solar Thermal 20 195.6 40.1 0 6.3 242
Hydro 53 76.9 4 6 2.1 88.9
Costs are expressed in terms of net AC power available to the grid for the installed capacity
Source U.S. Energy Information Administration , Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2012. Levelized Costs AEO 2012. July
2012

14. ‫الخاص‬ ‫القطاع‬ ‫من‬ ‫الطاقات‬ ‫إستخدام‬ ‫لزيادة‬ ‫المقترحة‬ ‫اآللية‬(‫والمتجددة‬ ‫تقليدي‬)(‫القدرة‬ ‫و‬ ‫الطاقة‬)
A proposed scheme to increase electricity from private sector (conventional & renewable
sources) (energy and power) – 3% penetration rate – Inverted Wedge Technique
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
AnnualElectricEnergy(GWh)
‫الكهربائية‬‫للطاقة‬‫السنوي‬‫إستخدام‬
(‫ج‬.‫و‬.‫س‬)
Year
‫سنة‬
5.7
4.8
4.03.8
3.0
2.3
1.6
1.0
0.50.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
PowerGW
‫الكهربائية‬‫القدرة‬(‫ج‬.‫و‬.‫س‬)
-‫إلى‬ ‫للكهرباء‬ ‫الكلي‬ ‫الصناعي‬ ‫االستخدام‬ ‫يصل‬77,421‫ج‬.‫و‬.‫س‬
‫منها‬27%‫المتجددة‬ ‫المصادر‬ ‫من‬‫بـ‬ ‫تقدر‬ ‫و‬20,904‫ج‬.‫و‬.‫س‬
-‫يقابلها‬5,7‫ج‬.‫المتجددة‬ ‫الطاقات‬ ‫سعات‬ ‫من‬ ‫و‬
Source: – Arab Electricity #110 – October/December 2012 ‫المصدر‬:‫عدد‬ ‫العربية‬ ‫الكهرباء‬110–‫أكتوبر‬/‫ديسمبر‬2012
Energy in Egypt .. going where Mohamed Salah Elsobki (Jr.)

15. Proposed Penetration Rate at 5%
‫المقترح‬ ‫للسوق‬ ‫الدخول‬ ‫معدل‬5%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
AnnualElectricEnergy(GWh)
‫الكهربائية‬‫للطاقة‬‫السنوي‬‫إستخدام‬
(‫ج‬.‫و‬.‫س‬)
Year
‫سنة‬
9.6
8.0
6.6
5.4
4.2
3.8
2.7
1.7
0.80.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
PowerGW
‫القدرة‬‫الكهربائية‬(‫ج‬.‫و‬.‫س‬)
-‫إلى‬ ‫للكهرباء‬ ‫الكلي‬ ‫الصناعي‬ ‫االستخدام‬ ‫يصل‬77,421
‫ج‬.‫و‬.‫منها‬ ‫س‬%45‫المتجددة‬ ‫المصادر‬ ‫من‬‫بـ‬ ‫تقدر‬ ‫و‬
34,839‫ج‬.‫و‬.‫س‬
-‫يقابلها‬9,6‫ج‬.‫المتجددة‬ ‫الطاقات‬ ‫سعات‬ ‫من‬ ‫و‬
Energy in Egypt .. going where Mohamed Salah Elsobki (Jr.)
Source: – Arab Electricity #110 – October/December 2012 ‫المصدر‬:‫عدد‬ ‫العربية‬ ‫الكهرباء‬110–‫أكتوبر‬/‫ديسمبر‬2012

16. Proposed Penetration Rate at 7%
‫المقترح‬ ‫للسوق‬ ‫الدخول‬ ‫معدل‬7%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
AnnualElectricEnergy(GWh)
‫الكهربائية‬‫للطاقة‬‫السنوي‬‫إستخدام‬
(‫ج‬.‫و‬.‫س‬)
Year
‫سنة‬
13.4
11.2
9.3
7.5
5.9
4.5
3.7
2.4
1.1
0.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
PowerGW
‫القدرة‬‫الكهربائية‬(‫ج‬.‫و‬.‫س‬)
-‫إلى‬ ‫للكهرباء‬ ‫الكلي‬ ‫الصناعي‬ ‫االستخدام‬ ‫يصل‬77,421‫ج‬.‫و‬.‫منها‬ ‫س‬
%63‫بـ‬ ‫تقدر‬ ‫و‬ ‫المتجددة‬ ‫المصادر‬ ‫من‬48,775‫ج‬.‫و‬.‫س‬
-‫يقابلها‬13,4‫ج‬.‫المتجددة‬ ‫الطاقات‬ ‫سعات‬ ‫من‬ ‫و‬
Energy in Egypt .. going where Mohamed Salah Elsobki (Jr.)
Source: – Arab Electricity #110 – October/December 2012 ‫المصدر‬:‫عدد‬ ‫العربية‬ ‫الكهرباء‬110–‫أكتوبر‬/‫ديسمبر‬2012

17. Proposed Penetration Rate at 10%
‫المقترح‬ ‫للسوق‬ ‫الدخول‬ ‫معدل‬10%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
AnnualElectricEnergy(GWh)
‫الكهربائية‬‫للطاقة‬‫السنوي‬‫إستخدام‬
(‫ج‬.‫و‬.‫س‬)
Year
‫سنة‬
19.1
16.0
13.2
10.7
8.4
6.4
4.5
3.4
1.6
0.6
0
5
10
15
20
PowerGW
‫القدرة‬‫الكهربائية‬(‫ج‬.‫و‬.‫س‬)
‫إلى‬ ‫للكهرباء‬ ‫الكلي‬ ‫الصناعي‬ ‫االستخدام‬ ‫يصل‬77,421‫ج‬.‫و‬.‫منها‬ ‫س‬%90
‫بـ‬ ‫تقدر‬ ‫و‬ ‫المتجددة‬ ‫المصادر‬ ‫من‬69,679‫ج‬.‫و‬.‫س‬
-‫يقابلها‬19,1‫ج‬.‫المتجددة‬ ‫الطاقات‬ ‫سعات‬ ‫من‬ ‫و‬
Energy in Egypt .. going where Mohamed Salah Elsobki (Jr.)
Source: – Arab Electricity #110 – October/December 2012 ‫المصدر‬:‫عدد‬ ‫العربية‬ ‫الكهرباء‬110–‫أكتوبر‬/‫ديسمبر‬2012

18. THANK YOU
Mohamed Salah Elsobki (Jr.)
Professor, Faculty of Engineering – Cairo University
Director Energy Research Center
June 11, 2013
Sobki54-2@hotmail.com
m.sobki@sobki.org