This month’s Regional Snapshot looks at automation and the potential impact on metro Atlanta jobs. Which occupations are at greater risk for automation? Which jobs are “safe?” Read on for the answers to these questions, and more…

1. Atlanta Regional Commission
For more information, contact:
mcarnathan@atlantaregional.com
Us, Robots?
Possible Impacts of Automation
on Jobs in Metro Atlanta

2. In Sum
• Overall, employment growth is strong in metro Atlanta, but several occupations that employ
thousands of residents are at-risk for automation in the future.
• The “Retail Salespersons” occupation employs the most workers in metro Atlanta and is at high risk
of automation as more and more technologies come online.
• Many of the “safest” occupations are concentrated in healthcare and other services that require a
“human touch”.
• Low-skill and low-paying occupations, in general, are at the highest risk of automation.
• Most of the occupations with the highest risk of automation employ high percentages of younger
workers.

3. Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Overall, metro Atlanta’s job growth has been near the top nationally for several years now, signaling a full recovery from the effects of the Great
Recession that lingered locally until 2012. Though job growth remains strong in metro Atlanta, this month’s Regional Snapshot explores
potential job market disruption due to automation.
3.3
3.0
2.5
2.3
2.0
1.6
1.5
1.4 1.4
1.2
0.9 0.9
0.3
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Atlanta Dallas Phoenix Miami San Francisco Boston Philadelphia United States Houston Washingotn DC Los Angeles New York Chicago
Year-Over-Year Percent Job Growth April 2016- April 2017
Metro Atlanta A National Leader in Job Growth

4. The Risk Factor of Automation
• Other major concerns in the job landscape are threats from technology, defined as (the chances of)
“automation”
• A 2013 Oxford University study found that 47% of US jobs were at risk
– A more recent Oxford report put the risk for certain occupations higher
• Transportation and logistics at 80%
• Sales at 63%
• A recent perception survey done by Survey Monkey indicates that 60% of workers are threatened by
automation
• New data from Burning Glass allows us to assess the risks by occupation at the metro area
– Burning Glass defines automation risk as the probability that a given occupation will be computerized within the next 20 years
– Burning Glass classified occupations by scoring into risk category quartiles. The bottom two quartiles of scores (including occupations such
as Home Health Aides) are designated as having low risk of automation; the third quartile of scores e.g. Machinists have medium risk; the
top quartile e.g. Insurance Underwriters are classified as having high risk of automation.

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0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000
First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers
Maintenance and Repair Workers, General
Software Developers, Applications
Business Operations Specialists, All Other
Sales Reps, Services, All Other
Team Assemblers
First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks
Accountants and Auditors
Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners
Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive
Stock Clerks and Order Fillers
Registered Nurses
Sales Reps, Whole/Manufacturing, not Tech/Scientific
Office Clerks, General
Waiters and Waitresses
Cashiers
General and Operations Managers
Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food
Customer Service Representatives
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand
Retail Salespersons
Top 20 Occupations and Risk of Automation
Top Occupations and Risk Levels Due to Automation
The “Retail Salespersons” occupation employs the
most workers, and it is at high risk of automation,
according to recent data from Burning Glass.
Data Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Burning Glass

6. “Safest” And “Most Threatened” Occupations
Occupation Name
Probability of
Computerization
Recreational Therapists 0.28%
Emergency Management Directors 0.30%
First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers 0.30%
Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers 0.31%
Audiologists 0.33%
Healthcare Social Workers 0.35%
Occupational Therapists 0.35%
Orthotists and Prosthetists 0.35%
Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons 0.36%
First-Line Supervisors of Fire Fighting and Prevention Workers 0.36%
Lodging Managers 0.39%
Dietitians and Nutritionists 0.39%
Choreographers 0.40%
Sales Engineers 0.41%
Instructional Coordinators 0.42%
Psychologists, All Other 0.43%
Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 0.44%
Dentists, General 0.44%
First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives 0.44%
Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists 0.45%
Occupation Name
Probability of
Computerization
Legal Secretaries 98%
Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks 98%
Timing Device Assemblers and Adjusters 98%
Milling and Planing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic 98%
Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers 98%
Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders 98%
Etchers and Engravers 98%
Driver/Sales Workers 98%
Insurance Underwriters 99%
Tax Preparers 99%
Mathematical Technicians 99%
Title Examiners, Abstractors, and Searchers 99%
Library Technicians 99%
Telemarketers 99%
New Accounts Clerks 99%
Cargo and Freight Agents 99%
Data Entry Keyers 99%
Watch Repairers 99%
Sewers, Hand 99%
Photographic Process Workers and Processing Machine Operators 99%
Many of the occupations that seem to be the “safest” are those in the health care field which requires personal interactions, like therapists
and social workers.
Data Source: Burning Glass

7. 35%
31%
36%
34%
36%
37%
33%
27%
24%
26%
28%
26%
27%
26%
39%
45%
38% 38%
39%
36%
41%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Atlanta Boston Charlotte Chicago Cleveland Dallas Denver
Metro Comparison
Share of Employment by Risk of Automation
High Risk Medium Risk Low Risk
Data Source: Burning Glass
The above chart uses data from Burning Glass to compare automation risk, by category, for Atlanta and peer metros. 62 percent of
Atlanta jobs are in occupation groupings with “medium” or “high” risk of automation. Overall, there are not large differences among
metros, regarding the overall shares of jobs at risk of automation. However, metros like Boston and Denver--with higher levels of
educational attainment and higher concentrations of higher-tech industries—have larger shares of jobs at “low-risk” of automation.

8. $32,498
$38,725
$32,811
$34,997 $33,939 $34,546 $36,154
$38,469
$46,217
$38,303
$41,181
$38,881 $38,749
$42,294
$75,399
$87,280
$73,261
$75,738
$66,670
$74,314
$79,304
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
Atlanta Boston Charlotte Chicago Cleveland Dallas Denver
Metro Comparison
Mean Wage by Risk of Automation
High Risk Medium Risk Low Risk
This chart compares average wages by automation risk category, across peer metros. In general, the high risk categories have the lowest
wages. The Atlanta metro’s mean wage in the “high-risk” category is lower than that in any other metro. While some of the explanation
may lie in our relatively low cost of living, our area’s relative ranking on this measure is still cause for concern.
Data Source: Burning Glass

9. Educational Attainment Nationally
Rank Occupation
Number of
Workers
Percent
Change,
2015-16
Share of
Total
Workers
Mean
Wage
% with a HS
Diploma or
less
% with Some
College or an
Associate's
% with a
Bachelor's
or higher
1 Retail Salespersons 85,800 1% 3.45% $ 25,490 36% 43% 21%
2 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 65,430 13% 2.63% $ 18,660 62% 33% 4%
3 Cashiers 59,980 4% 2.41% $ 20,030 55% 38% 8%
4 Waiters and Waitresses 49,890 0% 2.00% $ 19,230 44% 45% 12%
5 Office Clerks, General 46,830 -1% 1.88% $ 30,430 33% 48% 19%
6
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and
Executive
34,930 0% 1.40% $ 37,260 31% 49% 20%
7 Accountants and Auditors 27,500 -4% 1.11% $ 79,070 4% 17% 78%
8 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 26,670 0% 1.07% $ 41,110 32% 50% 19%
9 Team Assemblers 24,420 11% 0.98% $ 27,800 66% 29% 5%
10 Cooks, Restaurant 19,920 5% 0.80% $ 24,050 70% 26% 4%
Top 10 Employing Occupations at Risk of Automation
Data Source: Burning Glass
This table ranks the high-risk occupations (as classified by Burning Glass) by number of jobs in those occupations, as well as provides data
on each occupation’s share of jobs, recent growth trends, mean wages, and workforce educational attainment. Four of the top ten job
occupations at risk of automation have 50 percent or more of their workers holding a high school diploma or less. These workers will have
great need for retraining and upskilling to fill other higher-demand jobs in the “new economy”.

10. Analysis performed by ARC’s Research & Analytics Group Detailed Occupation (SOC)
Major Industry Sector
Accountants
and Auditors
Cooks
Combined Food
Preparation and
Serving Workers,
Including Fast Food
Waiters and
Waitresses
Cashiers
Retail
Salespersons
Bookkeeping,
Accounting,
and Auditing
Clerks
Secretaries and
Administrative
Assistants
Office Clerks,
General
Miscellaneous
Assemblers
and Fabricators
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Public Administration
Unspecified Manufacturing
Unspecified Trade
Top 10 Automation Risk Occupations by Industry Concentration
Data Source: American Community Survey (ACS) via PUMs
The Burning Glass automation risk data are available by occupation only, but assessing trends by industry is also critical. This table analyzes Census
micro-data to categorize at- risk occupations by two-digit NAICS sector. Retail Trade and Accommodation & Food Services sectors are the most
vulnerable, but there is also some exposure in the higher-wage Manufacturing and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services sectors.

11. Percent of Jobs At Risk of
Automation, By County
A different study out of Ball State University compiled results across
several separate studies that assessed the risk of automation. Using
data from one particular study out of Oxford (referenced earlier), the
authors estimated the percent of all jobs at risk to automation by
county. The values range from roughly 48 percent to 67 percent in the
state. However, many of metro Atlanta counties have among the lowest
automation risks in the state. Educational attainment is a key factor.
60.6% to 66.6%
59.1% to 60.6%
58.1% to 59.1%
57.0% to 58.1%
47.9% to 57.0%
Data Source: “How Vulnerable Are American Communities to Automation, Trade, &
Urbanization?”, Ball State University, CBER & Rural Policy Research Institute

12. Relationship Between Automation Risk and
Educational Attainment is Strong
Percent of Adult Population (25+) with at Least a Bachelor’s Degree
PercentofJobsatRiskToAutomation
One key determinant of
vulnerability of jobs to automation
is the educational attainment for
the workforce in a given county. This
scatterplot shows that relationship.
The counties with highest percent of
adults with at least a bachelor’s
degree have, in general, the lowest
risk of job losses due to automation.
Despite this strong correlation, a
high percentage of jobs in all
counties are at risk to automation.
Data Source: “How Vulnerable Are American Communities to Automation, Trade, &
Urbanization?”, Ball State University, CBER & Rural Policy Research Institute

13. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
Retail Salespersons
Fast Food and Counter Workers
Laborers and Material Movers, Hand
Cashiers
Waiters and Waitresses
Customer Service Representatives
General and Operations Managers
Miscellaneous Managers
Stock Clerks and Order Fillers
Cooks
Driver/Sales Workers and Truck Drivers
Building Cleaning Workers
Office Clerks, General
Registered Nurses
First-Line Supervisors of Sales Workers
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and…
Elementary and Middle School Teachers
Accountants and Auditors
Childcare Workers
Barbers, Hairdressers, Hairstylists and…
Software Developers and Programmers
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants
Nursing, Psychiatric, and Home Health Aides
Maintenance and Repair Workers, General
Construction Laborers
Top 25 Employing Occupations by Total Approx. Replacement Demand
2017 to 2027
Data Source: JobsEQ
There are other factors to explore in trying to understand the
future of the region’s workforce. This chart looks at the
replacement demand of the top employing occupations in
metro Atlanta. The majority of replacement demand is due to
retirement (about 50 percent), migration, shifts between
occupations, or by workers temporarily leaving the workforce.
Replacement demand shows that there a large number of
employment opportunities in occupations otherwise in
decline—as we see above with the concentrations in retail
trade and basic services.
Of course, humans may not necessarily be needed to meet all
of these demands, particularly in the case of Retail
Salespersons.

14. 0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Retail Salespersons Cashiers Secretaries and
Administrative
Assistants
Accountants and
Auditors
Waiters and
Waitresses
Cooks Bookkeeping,
Accounting, and
Auditing Clerks
Office Clerks,
General
Miscellaneous
Assemblers and
Fabricators
Combined Food
Preparation and
Serving Workers,
Including Fast Food
AgeCohortQuotient Top 10 Automation Risk Occupations by Age Cohort Quotient
2011-2015 ACS
<25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
Data Source: American Community Survey (ACS) via PUMS
Finally, this chart looks at the concentration of workers by age in those occupations that are at the highest risk due to automation. Values
above 1.0 indicate higher concentrations for given age groups . For example, in the “Retail Salespersons” occupation, workers are twice as
likely to be under the age of 25 than the workforce as a whole—the “quotient” on the left axis is 2.0. This is the case for four of the ten
occupations shown. Thus, with the current age profile of these occupations, younger workers ore more likely to be impacted by automation.