11. CRAY-1 " Supercomputer ".
1979
Preis: $8.8MM
"Die Anzahl der Transistoren in einer
dichten integrierten Schaltung
verdoppelt sich etwa alle zwei Jahre."
Gordon Moore
Bezahlbare Intelligenz heute:
2,5x die Leistung von CRAY-1
zum Preis eines Kaffees.
Mooresches Gesetz
Bezahlbare Intelligenz
13. Metcalfe`s Law
Wert der Platform
wächst exponentiell
mit der Zahl der
Nutzer
Reisebüros
Finanzberater
Printmedien
Online markets
FinTech
Peer-to-peer
Who is
Next?
15. Albert Allen Bartlett, professor of physics and futurist
“The greatest shortcoming of
the human race is our
inability to understand the
exponential function.“
17. Bis 2029 wird die
Rechenleistung
der des
menschlichen
Gehirns
entsprechen.
Ein
Insekte
nhirn
Ein Maushirn
Ein
menschlic
hes Gehirn
Alle Gehirne
der
Menschheit
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Die Singularität
18. Sobald ein Geschäftsmodell digitalisiert ist, beginnt es
exponentiell zu wachsen…
...das führt zu einer Neudefinition und Neuverteilung
des "Wertes" zwischen etablierten und neuen
Marktteilnehmern....
...Industrien wachsen zusammen und es entstehen neue
Partnerschaften.
19. 20
- Identifikation technologischer
Neuerungen und Trends
- Steuerung der zentralen R&D Abteilung
- Schnittstelle zwischen Vorstand,
Business Units und Technik
- Externe Repräsentation zur
Positionierung von OSRAM als High
Tech Unternehmen
CTO
Technologie
Innovation Repräsentation
Strategie
- Strategische Weiterentwicklung des
Technologieportfolios
- Entwicklung einer
unternehmensübergreifenden
technologischen Vision
- Unternehmensweite
Programme/Projekte zur Stärkung der
Innovationfähigkeit
- Förderung einer Innovationskultur
- Entwicklung Partnernetzwerk
Aufgaben des CTOs
20. Führung
von Transaktional zu Transformational
• Vom Planungswahn zu
selbstverantwortlichen Teams
• Lernen aus Fehlern
• Agilität durch Transparenz mit Visualisierung
• Von Motivation von Mitarbeitern zu
Vermeidung von Demotivation
• Kultur der Respektvollen Respektlosigkeit
21. 22 OS Technology Review 2018 | CTO | US
Munich | March 15, 2018
Visualisierung / Transparenz:
Strategische Projektmatrix
0
250
750
1.000
500
13
Potenzieller Umsatz 2025
1
6
8
9
127
10
11
15
14
Standard
Leicht verfügbar auf
dem Markt
Current core
Starker USP
Next core Future core
5' F&E-Aufwand
BII GJ xx/xx
3 / 4
Umsatzp
otenzial
>2025
5
2
23. ONLY FOR INTERNAL USE
Führung
von Transaktional zu Transformational
• Vom Planungswahn zu
selbstverantwortlichen Teams
• Agilität durch Transparenz mit Visualisierung
• Von Motivation von Mitarbeitern zu
Vermeidung von Demotivation
• Kultur der Respektvollen Respektlosigkeit
24. Klar in der Sache
verbindlich
Wertschätzend dem
Menschen gegenüber
Respektlos
nicht wertschätzend
Unklar in der Sache
unverbindlich
Sowohl als auch
Weder noch
Führungsquadrat
Passiert schon mal Passiert schon mal
We are truly living in an era of Exponential Disruption
OSRAM with its legacy of 110 years is faced with external changes that are unprecedented
I would like to share my thoughts on how I see the changes happening around us, and what we, I mean each one of us here – and together the full innovation power of OSRAM – cab do to shape the future of OSRAM in this environment
The good thing is that OSRAM with its products and capabilities can address a wide range of applications covering market of up to 50 Billion
No doubt, we are mainly covering the areas of illumination
and starting our journey in the area of sensing,
but there is a big territory in other applications that we should go and conquer…
These megatrends move the use of light to the next level.
# formerly mainly illumination emergence of visualization / sensing / treatment in the past years
# new applications require more integrated technology beyond pure emitters
Technology + application = photonics = OS
Explain Trends and OSRAM solutions in Smart Mobility
Components for Autonomous driving
JV with system competence for intelligent front lighting
Explain Trends and OSRAM solutions in Smart Companions
Explain Trends and OSRAM solutions in Smart Infrastructure
We should realize that every part of OSRAM’s business will be dramatically affected by Digitalization…from R&D to Manufacturing to Customer-experience
The four laws govern the Digitalization…we as OSRAM should understand the implications of these four laws for our Business…
Another example is the Moore’s law
The computational power available doubles every two year- this is an exponential function
This inversely means that the cost of the computational power also falls down dramatically
Smartness suddenly becomes “affordable” smartness for many applications
If you think for moment, this law has some major implications for OSRAM
And the Nielsen’s law governs the rate of available bandwidth, which in-turn is required for connectivity
Another exponential function…also meaning the connectivity will become affordable for many applications that could not have afforded to be “online”
Digitalization, Platform and Information Economy are Phenomenon that are well and truly manifested in an exponential behavior
Smartphone disrupted Nokia
Uber disrupted Taxi
Who is next?
Ladies and Gentlemen, Welcome to the Era of Exponential Disruption!
Our company, a very successful company with an rich history of 110 years, is facing this situation
Now is the time for us to get together and think about what we need to do to not only survive, but also to thrive and dominate this Era of exponential disruption!
So what is exactly going on? Why do companies fall into this trap?
Well, the problem is…
Well, I call it: “The “Deception of the Exponential Function”
I would like to give you an example which explains “The Deception of the Exponential Function” very well
Here is an example from DNA sequencing….
In fact, let me read a short paragraph from the book called: Exponential Organizations: Why new organizations are ten times better, faster, and cheaper than yours, Salim Ismail…
Here is one more example
Explain Singularity: is the hypothesis that the invention of artificial superintelligence will abruptly trigger runaway technological growth, resulting in unfathomable changes to human civilization.
By 2029 the computational power will reach the capacity of Human Brain
If you think about it, aspects like Emotions that are considered to be really “Human”, may be to some extent captured in algorithms..
One fact to remember is: Once the business is Digitalized, it moves on the exponential curve………..
Think for instance about our LED Chips. Today they are not following an exponential change. But if smartness based on ICs packaged into our LEDs would be required for future functionalities the new product would have to follow the rules of exponential changed according Moore`s Law.
Let me guide you through our strategy along 4 areas.
4 bullet points
Here is one more example
Explain Singularity: is the hypothesis that the invention of artificial superintelligence will abruptly trigger runaway technological growth, resulting in unfathomable changes to human civilization.
By 2029 the computational power will reach the capacity of Human Brain
If you think about it, aspects like Emotions that are considered to be really “Human”, may be to some extent captured in algorithms..
Here is one more example
Explain Singularity: is the hypothesis that the invention of artificial superintelligence will abruptly trigger runaway technological growth, resulting in unfathomable changes to human civilization.
By 2029 the computational power will reach the capacity of Human Brain
If you think about it, aspects like Emotions that are considered to be really “Human”, may be to some extent captured in algorithms..
One fact to remember is: Once the business is Digitalized, it moves on the exponential curve………..
Think for instance about our LED Chips. Today they are not following an exponential change. But if smartness based on ICs packaged into our LEDs would be required for future functionalities the new product would have to follow the rules of exponential changed according Moore`s Law.