China in 2050

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A strategic foresight presentation on the impact of social capital on the future of China\'s economic sustainability

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China in 2050

  1. 1. Prepared by Stephen E. Brimmer [email_address]   November 2008
  2. 2. The Rise of China <ul><li>&quot;China is poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country&quot; </li></ul><ul><li>– National Intelligence Council </li></ul><ul><li>World’s second largest economy </li></ul><ul><li>Leading military power </li></ul><ul><li>Largest importer of natural resources </li></ul>
  3. 3. “ Giant with feet of clay” - Carol Lee Hamrin <ul><li>A low-trust authoritarian culture </li></ul><ul><li>A weak philanthropic tradition </li></ul><ul><li>Pervasive moral corrosion </li></ul><ul><li>Widespread social tensions </li></ul><ul><li>Spiritual/ideological contention </li></ul>Daniel 2: 31-45
  4. 4. Social Capital Deficit Source: International Futures Model
  5. 5. What is Social Capital? <ul><li>A “cultural component of modern societies” </li></ul><ul><li>An “informal norm that promotes cooperation” among groups </li></ul><ul><li>A contributor to “efficient functioning of modern economies” </li></ul><ul><li>A catalyst for trust, reciprocity, and social networking </li></ul><ul><li>Source: Fukuyama. Social Capital and Civil Society. October 1999. </li></ul>Dr. Francis Fukuyama Johns Hopkins University
  6. 6. Forecast Baseline <ul><li>China compared to World </li></ul><ul><li>China compared to India </li></ul>Economic Forecast
  7. 7. Forecast Baseline World Leadership Forecast
  8. 8. Forecast Baseline <ul><li>China compared to World </li></ul><ul><li>China compared to India </li></ul>Governance Forecast
  9. 9. Forecast Scenarios <ul><li>Markets first – presumes globalization, rapid technological innovation and economic growth </li></ul><ul><li>Security first – economic disparities and environmental pressures generate conflict </li></ul><ul><li>Policy first – governments in-adequately address environ-mental and social issues </li></ul><ul><li>Sustainability first –a new paradigm emerges with transforming societal values </li></ul>World Scenarios 
  10. 10. Forecast Scenarios World Scenarios Graph
  11. 11. Forecast Scenarios Governance Improvement Scenario
  12. 12. Forecast Scenarios Governance Improvement Scenario
  13. 13. Forecast Scenarios <ul><li>Additional benefits of Governance Improvement Scenario </li></ul>
  14. 14. Conclusion <ul><li>“ Can China maintain social stability in the face of what appear to be unprecedented levels of rural-to-urban migration? </li></ul><ul><li>...And if China falters, what effect will its instability have on the rest of the world.?” </li></ul>
  15. 15. <ul><li>How can organizations identify trends and emerging issues on their horizon that will likely shape their strategy? </li></ul><ul><li>How do strategic leadership teams combine anticipatory management with traditional management processes? </li></ul><ul><li>How can leaders think about the future, change and uncertainties in a way that refocuses organizational strategy? </li></ul>Strategic foresight attempts to answer questions such as:
  16. 16. To learn more about the benefits strategic foresight may provide you and your organization, contact: Steve Brimmer [email_address]

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