• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
China in 2050
 

China in 2050

on

  • 6,178 views

A strategic foresight presentation on the impact of social capital on the future of China\'s economic sustainability

A strategic foresight presentation on the impact of social capital on the future of China\'s economic sustainability

Statistics

Views

Total Views
6,178
Views on SlideShare
6,149
Embed Views
29

Actions

Likes
1
Downloads
246
Comments
0

2 Embeds 29

http://www.slideshare.net 28
http://translate.googleusercontent.com 1

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    China in 2050 China in 2050 Presentation Transcript

    • Prepared by Stephen E. Brimmer [email_address]   November 2008
    • The Rise of China
      • "China is poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country"
      • – National Intelligence Council
      • World’s second largest economy
      • Leading military power
      • Largest importer of natural resources
    • “ Giant with feet of clay” - Carol Lee Hamrin
      • A low-trust authoritarian culture
      • A weak philanthropic tradition
      • Pervasive moral corrosion
      • Widespread social tensions
      • Spiritual/ideological contention
      Daniel 2: 31-45
    • Social Capital Deficit Source: International Futures Model
    • What is Social Capital?
      • A “cultural component of modern societies”
      • An “informal norm that promotes cooperation” among groups
      • A contributor to “efficient functioning of modern economies”
      • A catalyst for trust, reciprocity, and social networking
      • Source: Fukuyama. Social Capital and Civil Society. October 1999.
      Dr. Francis Fukuyama Johns Hopkins University
    • Forecast Baseline
      • China compared to World
      • China compared to India
      Economic Forecast
    • Forecast Baseline World Leadership Forecast
    • Forecast Baseline
      • China compared to World
      • China compared to India
      Governance Forecast
    • Forecast Scenarios
      • Markets first – presumes globalization, rapid technological innovation and economic growth
      • Security first – economic disparities and environmental pressures generate conflict
      • Policy first – governments in-adequately address environ-mental and social issues
      • Sustainability first –a new paradigm emerges with transforming societal values
      World Scenarios 
    • Forecast Scenarios World Scenarios Graph
    • Forecast Scenarios Governance Improvement Scenario
    • Forecast Scenarios Governance Improvement Scenario
    • Forecast Scenarios
      • Additional benefits of Governance Improvement Scenario
    • Conclusion
      • “ Can China maintain social stability in the face of what appear to be unprecedented levels of rural-to-urban migration?
      • ...And if China falters, what effect will its instability have on the rest of the world.?”
      • How can organizations identify trends and emerging issues on their horizon that will likely shape their strategy?
      • How do strategic leadership teams combine anticipatory management with traditional management processes?
      • How can leaders think about the future, change and uncertainties in a way that refocuses organizational strategy?
      Strategic foresight attempts to answer questions such as:
    • To learn more about the benefits strategic foresight may provide you and your organization, contact: Steve Brimmer [email_address]