Dr. Emre Erdoğan Political Participation of Turksih Youth
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Dr. Emre Erdoğan Political Participation of Turksih Youth

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Workshop on the Political Participation of Young People 21-22 June, 2013. ...

Workshop on the Political Participation of Young People 21-22 June, 2013.
Gençlerin Siyasi Katılımı 21 – 22 Haziran 2013

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  • 1. An Example of «Reductio ad Absurdum» Method: Political Participation of Turkish Youth, if They were French… Dr. Emre Erdoğan
  • 2. Political Participation Patterns of Turkish Youth: 1998-2008 Percentages 1999 2003 2008 Voting 61,5 52,6 48,0 Being a member to the youth branch of a political party 10,0 8,3 9,0 Being a member to of a political party except the youth branch 6,0 3,5 4,1 Canvassing in a political campaign 6,7 4,1 5,0 Distributing brochures in a political campaign 8,1 5,3 5,3 Petitioning about a local problem 18,0 9,4 8,0 Petitioning about a personal problem 20,6 10,2 7,3 Participating in a political demonstration 12,8 9,4 11,3 Participating in a boycott 7,9 6,4 6,8 Participating in a protest activity conducted over internet 3,2 4,3 7,2 Being a member of a civil society organization 4,3 2,9 4,4
  • 3. Conventional vs. Unconventional Political Participation Percentages 1999 2003 2008 Voting 61,5 52,6 48,0 Being a member to the youth branch of a political party 10,0 8,3 9,0 Being a member to of a political party except the youth branch 6,0 3,5 4,1 Canvassing in a political campaign 6,7 4,1 5,0 Distributing brochures in a political campaign 8,1 5,3 5,3 Petitioning about a local problem 18,0 9,4 8,0 Petitioning about a personal problem 20,6 10,2 7,3 Participating in a political demonstration 12,8 9,4 11,3 Participating in a boycott 7,9 6,4 6,8 Participating in a protest activity conducted over internet 3,2 4,3 7,2 Being a member of a civil society organization 4,3 2,9 4,4
  • 4. 0% Belgium Cyprus Denmark Sweden Greece Spain Netherlands Finland Croatia Hungary Poland Turkey Russian Federation Germany Ukraine Norway Slovenia France Portugal Slovakia Israel Romania Bulgaria Ireland Switzerland Estonia Czech Republic United Kingdom Latvia Conventional Political Participation: Source ESS-2008 Voted 100% 80% 64% 60% 40% 20%
  • 5. 0% Member of a Party Worked for a Party Croatia Cyprus Greece Estonia Romania Norway Ireland Denmark Israel Sweden Belgium Portugal Finland Ukraine Slovenia Germany Netherlands Turkey Russian Federation Switzerland France Spain Bulgaria Slovakia Poland Latvia United Kingdom Czech Republic Hungary Conventional Political Participation: Source ESS-2008 15% 12,8% 10% 5%
  • 6. 0% Ukraine Latvia Poland Bulgaria Croatia Greece Hungary Czech Republic Portugal Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Israel Romania Estonia Belgium Russian Federation France United Kingdom Cyprus Spain Germany Netherlands Switzerland Sweden Norway Finland Denmark Turkey Political Participation in a Comparative Perspective: Trust in Politicians and Parliament 60% 40% 40,8% 20% Trust Parliament Trust in Politicians
  • 7. MDS Positioning Conventional Political Participation PL LV HUCZ SK UA HR BG GR PT EE SI IL IE BE GBRO FR RU ES DE NL CH CY NO SE FI TR DK
  • 8. Phylogenetic Tree AnalysisGeneologic Similarities: Neighbor-Net and Neighbor Joining algorithmes
  • 9. Unconventional Political Participation: Source EVS-2008 80% 60% 40% 0% RO RU SK HU LT BG BY CY MT SI LV EE AM PL MD PT NIR ES NCY GB GE TR UA NL CH HR CZ IE BA AT DE BE DK GR ME AL RS SE LU KOS MK NO FR IT AZ IS FI 20% Boycotts Lawful Demonstrations
  • 10. Unconventional Political Participation: Source EVS-2008 40% 0% BG BY CY EE FI GE IS LT LV NIR SI SK RO HU MD MT PT RU SE AM GB NL NO PL BE NCY IE ME LU ES RS BA TR UA CZ HR MK CH KOS DE AL AT DK FR AZ IT GR 20% Unofficial Strikes Occupying Buildings
  • 11. MDS Unconventional Political Participation -- Dim2 --> AZ UA BY MD AM TR BG HU RU GE FR IT GR ES LU KOS CY DK AL DE RS MK CH AT PT ME CZ LT MT RO LV EE PL BA NL SI IE SK NIR HR GB NCY -- Dim1 --> IS NO BE SE FI
  • 12. Phylogenetic Tree AnalysisGeneologic Similarities: Neighbor-Net and Neighbor Joining algorithms
  • 13. 0% SI CZ BG DE DK GR RS BA HR SK RO EE KOS AL CH HU TR LU PT MK NCY IT GB ME NIR CY AT SE BE LT NL NO LV PL FI MD IE ES MT FR IS BY UA RU AZ AM GE Education of Respondent 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Tertiary
  • 14. 0% TR PT BA IT CY MT SK HU AL NCY RS IE FR GR KOS NIR RO PL SI ME CZ CH AT ES HR BG MK LU DE BE GB RU MD DK NL UA EE FI SE IS AM NO LV LT BY AZ GE Education of Respondent’s Father 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Tertiary
  • 15. «If all countries had same distribution in R’s and F’s education levels?» Counterfactual Analysis If education level of Turkish youth and their fathers would be same with the French youth?
  • 16. Propensity Score Matching: Definition: Given X, the probability of receiving the treatment, depending to several covariates e (X) = P(T = 1|X) Treatment: Being a French citizen or not… Covariates: Respondent and Father’s Education Level
  • 17. Propensity Score Distribution 100% 80% 78,40% 60% 56,70% 40% 25,50% 20% 14,20% 10,80% 3,30% 4,10% 3,80% 3,20% 0,00% 0% <= ,20000 ,20001 - ,40000 ,40001 - ,60000 Turkey France ,60001 - ,80000 ,80001+
  • 18. France vs Turkey: After Weighting 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Signing a Petition Boycotts France Lawful Demonstrations Turkey Unofficial Strikes Turkey Unadjusted Occupying Buildings
  • 19. Father’s Education Level and Cohorts (Tertiary Education) 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% <= 1937 1938 - 1946 - 1952 - 1958 - 1964 - 1969 - 1975 - 1981 - 1986+ 1945 1951 1957 1963 1968 1974 1980 1985 Respondent Father
  • 20. MDS Unconventional Political Participation RU BG UA RO AM BY HU LT PL NCY LV TR MT SK EE ME PT BA AL CZ NIR MD AZ GE RS MK CY GR NL HR GB AT CH DE KOS ES SIIE FI LU DK IT FR IS NO BE SE
  • 21. Phylogenetic Tree AnalysisGeneologic Similarities: Neighbor-Net and Neighbor Joining algorithms
  • 22. Thanks and Questions