Oil Scenario Vulnerability

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Oil model price shock model for estimating the impacts on purchasing power of various global events.

Oil model price shock model for estimating the impacts on purchasing power of various global events.

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  • 1. Oil Price Shock Scenarios
  • 2. This map shows the baseline vulnerability index for the model, a metric based on the ratio of foreign oil dependency to domestic oil stocks. The higher the value, the greater the vulnerability to import shocks.
  • 3. In the event of a Russian invasion of the Ukraine, Europe would take the hardest hit in reduction of purchasing power. The Netherlands, Belgium, and Sweden are particularly hard hit
  • 4. A loss of Iranian oil would have the largest impact on purchasing power in South East Asia, particularly in Japan.
  • 5. Large reductions in purchasing power from a stoppage of Venezuelan oil is most strongly felt in the Caribbean, Central and South America.
  • 6. A price shock to Nigerian oil is felt throughout the global market, but most significantly in the Caribbean, the Netherlands, Sweden, and China
  • 7. Supporting Tables