Vinod Khosla 2.25.09


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Vinod Khosla\'s talk on the power of technology to revolutionize the alternative fuels industry

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  • Vinod Khosla 2.25.09

    1. 1. Renewable Energy: Maintech, not Cleantech Vinod Khosla Khosla Ventures Feb 2009
    2. 2. “ all progress depends on the unreasonable man” George Bernard Shaw
    3. 3. “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.”
    4. 4. <ul><li>“ The ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered a means of communication” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>-Western Union Internal Memo, 1876 </li></ul></ul>Problem: Misunderstanding Technology
    5. 5. “ There is no reason for any individuals to have a computer in their home” -Ken Olsen, President, Chairman and Founder of DEC, 1977 Excuse: Missing Applications
    6. 6. “ Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible” -Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society 1895 Problem: Understanding of Physics
    7. 7. <ul><li>&quot;Everything that can be invented has been invented.&quot; </li></ul><ul><ul><li>-Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899 </li></ul></ul>Problem: Underestimating people
    8. 8. “ It is the mark of an educated person to look for precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.” Aristotle
    9. 9. oil price forecasts (1985-2005) Data/Source: World Oil Prices (current $ / Barrel)- EIA Office of Integration Analysis and Forecasting Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual 10-yr Forecast Error 5-yr Forecast Error
    10. 10. gas price forecasts (1985-2005) Data/Source: Natural Gas Wellhead Prices (current $ /1000cf) - EIA Office of Integration Analysis and Forecasting Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual 10-yr Forecast Error 5-yr Forecast Error
    11. 11. coal price forecasts (1985-2005) Data/Source: Coal Prices to Elec. Generating Plants (current $ /million btu) - EIA Office of Integration Analysis and Forecasting Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 10-yr Forecast Error 5-yr Forecast Error
    12. 12. the US market for mobile subscribers <ul><li>Fortune (1984 => 1989) </li></ul><ul><li>McKinsey for AT&T (1980 => 2000) </li></ul><ul><li>Herschel Shosteck </li></ul><ul><li>(1994 => 2004) </li></ul>Source Actual <ul><li>3.5M </li></ul><ul><li>109M </li></ul><ul><li>182M </li></ul>The same mistakes are repeated again and again! Forecasts <ul><li>1M </li></ul><ul><li>0.9M </li></ul><ul><li>60-90M </li></ul>Source: American Heritage Magazine -
    13. 13. yesterday’s technology, tomorrow’s forecast <ul><li>1980’s phone </li></ul><ul><li>The actual market </li></ul>
    14. 14. quantitative modeling flaws <ul><li>Models with given inputs are precise but inaccurate </li></ul><ul><ul><li>low “standard deviation”, but with high “standard error” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>input the measurable, ignore the immeasurable Black Swan’s </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>obscured embedded assumptions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Food price controversy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>World Bank study 75% of price rise due to biofuels </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>USDA notes only 3% of total price change </li></ul></ul>
    15. 15. “ extrapolation of the past” vs. “inventing the future”
    16. 16. …” relevant scale ” solutions for <ul><li>… oil </li></ul><ul><li>… coal </li></ul><ul><li>… materials </li></ul><ul><li>… (efficiency of oil & coal use) </li></ul>
    17. 17. 1990: Chindia ≈ 13% of CO 2 emissions 2005: Chindia ≈ 23% of CO 2 emissions 2030: Chindia ≈ 34% of CO 2 emissions EIA
    18. 18. “ China and India together account for 79 percent of the projected increase in world coal consumption from 2005 to 2030” EIA
    19. 19. …” relevant cost ” …” relevant scale ” …” relevant adoption ”
    20. 20. … the chindia test only scalable if competitive unsubsidized
    21. 21. … the scaling model brute force or exponential, distributed…
    22. 22. … the adoption risk financial, consumer acceptance, market entry
    23. 23. <ul><li>But how do we evaluate solutions…? </li></ul>
    24. 24. <ul><ul><ul><li>Trajectory: “What is” or “What Can Be” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Scalability Trajectory </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Cost Trajectory </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Adoption Risk </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Capital Formation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Optionality </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Carbon Reduction Capacity </li></ul></ul></ul>key criteria
    25. 25. … cost and carbon trajectory
    26. 26. Cost trajectory: Undesirable (hydrogen fuel cell?) Subsidy/Support Needed Cost Fossil Fuel Cost Fossil + Carbon Cost Time
    27. 27. cost: driving down the cost curve Source: “The Carbon Productivity Challenge”, McKinsey – Original from UC Berkely Energy Resource Group, Navigant Consulting
    28. 28. cost: not all technology curves are the same Cheapest now does not mean cheapest later! Trajectory Matters! Solar PV Wind Coal
    29. 29. declining technology cost … Crystalline Silicon Amorphous Silicon Thin-Film Thin-Film Multi-Junction Generations of Solar Photovoltaics…
    30. 30. but tech cost decline isn’t enough… Construction Cost Inputs (Feedstock/Land) Technology Cost Total Cost Total cost decline is based on relative proportion of cost “types”…
    31. 31. Carbon trajectory: Undesirable (natural gas?) Carbon Emissions Trajectory Desired Goal (80% below fossil?) Time
    32. 32. … the adoption risk financial, consumer acceptance, market entry
    33. 33. adoption risk - $2,500 nano Internal combustion engine or Hydrogen / electric?
    34. 34. adoption risk: U.S. mill closures
    35. 35. … optionality
    36. 36. Pyrolisis optionality: biofuels feedstocks & pathways … Mixalco Process Glycerin Natural Oils BioDiesel (FAME or FAEE) Methanol/Ethanol Gasification Syngas Fermentation Ethanol/Butanol BTL Diesel Mixed Higher Alcohol Methane Microbial cultures Dimethylfuran Gasoline, Diesel, Hydrocarbons Ethanol, Butanol, Renewable Petroleum FermDiesel Sugars/ Starch Fermentation Biogasoline ETG via catalysis Biomass Cellulose/ Hemicellulose Acid or Enzyme Hydrolysis Saccharification Ethanol Algae + Sunlight – CO2 Cell Mass Hydrocracking Waste Fischer-Tropspch catalysis BioDiesel (FAME or FAEE) Catalytic Conversion Butanol Diesel Transesterification Catalysis and Aqueous phase Reforming Fermentation Catalytic Conversion Ethanol Biocrude
    37. 37. optionality: hybrids or biofuels? Time % of power from liquid fuel % of power from electric sources 0% 0% 100% 100% Fast (relative) battery tech development Slow battery tech development
    38. 38. … capital formation
    39. 39. <ul><li>Short Innovation Cycles (3-5 years) </li></ul><ul><li>Short investor return cycles </li></ul><ul><li>Mitigate technical & market risk cheaply </li></ul><ul><li>Unsubsidized market competition </li></ul>Private money will flow to ventures that return investment in 3-5 year cycles! capital formation
    40. 40. … carbon reduction capacity
    41. 41. Carbon Productivity Growth Required = 5.6%/yr World GDP Growth = 3.1%/yr Source: “The Carbon Productivity Challenge”, McKinsey – Original GDP projection from Global Insight through 2037 Less reduction now, but greater capacity to respond in the future? Carbon Productivity = GDP / Emissions World GDP Growth Emission decrease to 20GT CO 2 e by 2050 = - 2.4%/yr carbon reduction capacity: 10X increase in carbon productivity!
    42. 42. Growth Offers the Greatest Carbon Reduction Opportunity ! carbon reduction capacity is key Improvement of current stock Replacement of old stock Growth stock
    43. 43. goal: cost, carbon reduction capacity, carbon & scaling trajectory, capital formation, low adoption risk, & optionality
    44. 44. <ul><li>But be vary of irrational ideas…. </li></ul>
    45. 45. irrational ideas: toilet paper <ul><li>I propose a limitation be put on how many sqares [sic] of toilet paper can be used in any one sitting.  Now, I don't want to rob any law-abiding American of his or her God-given rights, but I think we are an industrious enough people that we can make it work with only one square per restroom visit,  except, of course, on those pesky occasions where 2 to 3 could be required. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>- Sheryl Crow </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Source - </li></ul>
    46. 46. irrational ideas: “ green bikinis” <ul><li>Source - </li></ul>
    47. 47. irrational ideas: eat kangaroos, not cows! Source – “ SYDNEY (Reuters) - Farming kangaroos instead of sheep and cattle in Australia could cut by almost a quarter the greenhouse gases produced by grazing livestock, which account for 11 percent of the nation's annual emissions, said a new study.”
    48. 48. irrational ideas: “ no flags, no footprint” <ul><li>“ But a few days into the Euro 2008 football championships fans are being advised not to fly their flags - because they could damage the environment… Austria's automobile club, the OAMTC, says attaching two flags to a car leads to an increased petrol consumption of &quot;up to half a litre a kilometre on motorways and rural stretches&quot;.” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>- The Guardian </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Source - </li></ul>
    49. 49. irrational ideas: Shell’s “sustainable” tar sands <ul><li>UK advertising authority: Shell mislead public by claiming tar sands as “sustainable” source! </li></ul>Source –
    50. 50. irrational ideas: “ how to green” books <ul><li>Source - </li></ul>
    51. 51. irrational ideas: zero-emission buses? <ul><li>3-year Oakland pilot : zero-emission hydrogen fuel cell buses </li></ul><ul><li>diesel @ $1.61/mile vs. hydrogen @ $51.66/mile ! </li></ul>Source: ABC News - solutions must make economic sense!
    52. 52. irrational ideas: Zero Emission Buildings <ul><li>... the new fashion? </li></ul>
    53. 53. …” lets face the facts” <ul><li>… Prius : vs. painting 1000 sq-ft of roof white </li></ul><ul><li>… Wind & PV: unscalable solutions without storage! </li></ul><ul><li>… “ Classic” Biodiesel: a technological dead-end! </li></ul><ul><li>… CCS Coal: “FutureGen” or “Nevergen”? </li></ul><ul><li>… Hydrogen powered cars: a bridge to nonsense? </li></ul>
    54. 54. “ no change bigotry” vs. “environmental everything” vs. pragmentalists
    55. 55. irrational ideas: the “Exxon view”? <ul><li>Discipline, Patience, Vision ≠ Green! </li></ul>Source – NY Times
    56. 56. … technology expands the “Art of the Possible” … today’s “unimaginable” or tomorrow’s “conventional wisdom” … the power of ideas driven by entrepreneurial energy
    57. 57. “ Black Swans” and forecasting
    58. 58. “ black swan” solutions ? Technology shocks are classic “Black Swans”! Strategy: More “at bats”; “shots on goal” Source: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of “The Black Swan” <ul><li>“ rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability” </li></ul>
    59. 59. <ul><ul><ul><li>“ more coal plants meant cleaner air” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ more driving meant less carbon” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ cement was carbon negative & free” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ a million year crude production cycle reduced to hours?” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ engines were twice as efficient cutting world oil consumption in half” </li></ul></ul></ul>“ what if…” We are working on these & imagining the future!
    60. 60. <ul><li>Cement that sequesters CO2, instead of emitting it! </li></ul>Calera
    61. 61. Biocrude Crude oil Refinery Kior: “biocrude” replaces crude Millions of Years
    62. 62. Kior: Millions of years  Minutes! 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 TAN ( mgKOH/g ) Oxygen (wt %) Biomass Thermal Cracking (Pyrolysis- seconds) Geo Thermal Conversion (Million of years) Catalytic Cracking (BCC in minutes)
    63. 63. Transonic <ul><ul><li>Gasoline engines at high compression ratios </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>New injector technology is multi-fuel capable </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Precision ignition timing </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>50-100% mileage improvement </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Near term goal: 100mpg diesel “Prius” </li></ul></ul>
    64. 64. Soraa/Kaai/Lumenz: lasers and lighting
    65. 65. <ul><li>… prefabricated, environmentally friendly, cheaper, LEEDS homes </li></ul>Living Homes
    66. 66. <ul><ul><ul><li>fusion happened at low temperatures” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ nuclear plants produced no waste” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ batteries were 10-100X better” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ plant chlorophyll solar cells produced electricity or fuels” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ algae could excrete its oil production” </li></ul></ul></ul>“ what if…” Others have proposed these!
    67. 67. not your niche markets anymore! <ul><li>Corn Ethanol </li></ul><ul><li>Biodiesel </li></ul><ul><li>Solar PV </li></ul><ul><li>Wind </li></ul><ul><li>Geothermal </li></ul>The Markets You Think Of The New Green <ul><li>Engines ($200B) </li></ul><ul><li>Lighting ($80B - US) </li></ul><ul><li>Appliances ($10’sB+ ) </li></ul><ul><li>Batteries + Flow Cells ($50B+) </li></ul><ul><li>Gasoline ($500B+) </li></ul><ul><li>Diesel ($500B+) </li></ul><ul><li>Jet Fuel ($100B+) </li></ul><ul><li>Cement ($100B+) </li></ul><ul><li>Water ($500B+) </li></ul><ul><li>Glass ($40B) </li></ul><ul><li>Home Building (!!!) </li></ul><ul><li>BioPlastics ($10’sB+) </li></ul><ul><li>Generation - $250B - US </li></ul><ul><li>Solar Thermal </li></ul><ul><li>EGS </li></ul><ul><li>Clean Coal </li></ul><ul><li>New Nukes </li></ul>
    68. 68. … our renewable portfolio
    69. 69. Cellulosic Ethanol Sugar Feedstocks Starch Feedstocks Tools Solar Natural Gas Mechanical Efficiency Electrical Efficiency Cellulosic Future Fuels Plastics Water Materials Sequestration Tools EPC Waste Water Water Desalination PVC Plasticizers Polyurethane Polyethylene Glass Cement Distributed Solar Utility Scale Solar Coal Efficiency Oil Homes Engines Appliances Pumps Lighting Batteries Motors Engineered Geothermal Wind Storage Synthetic Natural Gas Corn/ Sugar Fuels Wind Building Materials Geothermal Butanol Cellul. Diesel Cellul. Gasoline Cellul. Jet Fuel Khosla Ventures Renewable Portfolio
    70. 70. Mascoma Range Coskata Lanza Cilion Tools Solar Natural Gas Mechanical Efficiency Electrical Efficiency Cellulosic Future Fuels Plastics Water Materials Nanostellar Codon NanoH2O Draths Segetis Soladigm Calera Stion Ausra Infinia PVT Coal Efficiency Oil PAX Streamline EcoMotors Transonic Tula Hybradrive Seeo Kaai Soraa Lumenz Topanga GIV Gridshift AltaRock Great Point Energy Corn/ Sugar Fuels Wind Building Materials Geothermal Amyris LS9 Gevo KiOR Khosla Ventures Renewable Portfolio Sakti3 Firefly Ramu
    71. 71. Together, our products will improve the way all people live
    72. 72. Calera Corporation Built on carbon negative cement
    73. 73. Living Homes And prefabricated, environmentally friendly, cheaper, LEEDS homes
    74. 74. Soladigm Using electrochromatic windows
    75. 75. Amyris LS9 Gevo Kior Mascoma Range Fuels Coskata LanzaTech Fueled from renewable sources
    76. 76. Ramu EcoMotors Transonic Firefly Seeo Sakti3 Nanostellar Tula Technologies With reduced fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions Hybradrive
    77. 77. Topanga Lit by high intensity, low power discharge lighting
    78. 78. Ausra Altarock Infinia Stion PVT Solar Using renewable electricity
    79. 79. Great Point Energy Cooking with natural gas from clean coal & biomass
    80. 80. Group IV Lumenz Reading with LED lighting Soraa
    81. 81. Kaai Watching HD laser TV
    82. 82. NanoH2O Drinking desalinated water
    83. 83. Segetis Safely using biobased plastics and chemicals
    84. 84. Draths Biobased materials for your home
    85. 85. Pax Streamline Staying comfortable with more efficient air conditioning
    86. 86. Change every aspect of daily living
    87. 87. to predict the future, invent it! <ul><li>Forecast 2015: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New “cheaper than fossil” technologies proven </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Forecast 2030 : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How will oil compete? </li></ul></ul>
    88. 88. … or get to work [email_address]
    89. 89. Biofuels Case Study
    90. 90. the biofuels Rationale: trajectory <ul><li>“ What is” or “What Can Be” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Chindia” solutions </li></ul><ul><li>Multiple improvement pathways </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid innovation cycles </li></ul><ul><li>Avoid “dead-end” (vegetable biodiesel, natural gas) </li></ul>
    91. 91. <ul><li>We propose </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Facility-level individual certification </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ LEEDS” like goodness rating </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tradable CLAW certificates </li></ul></ul><ul><li>C – CARBON relative to gasoline </li></ul><ul><li>L –net LAND use impact </li></ul><ul><li>A – AIR quality impact </li></ul><ul><li>W – WATER use relative to gasoline </li></ul>CLAW: doing biofuels right
    92. 92. US land: Little land use next 10 years <ul><li>Reality of Land Use </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Economics means lowest cost sources used first (waste) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Source: DOE 1.3B dry tons with “modest changes in land use” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Source: Winter cover crops: no marginal land usage </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sources: GMO, better worldwide yields, marginal or unused lands… </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Propagating the ILUC Myth: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ignore range of crops, practices, economic signals, value of optionality </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The “best science” is not good enough to use </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lack of zero ILUC model: absence of proof is not proof of absence </li></ul></ul>Land use will be immaterial through the current RFS standard!
    93. 93. <ul><li>Short rotation: winter cover crops </li></ul><ul><li>Long rotation: 10x10 year energy/row crops </li></ul><ul><li>Polyculture, perennial long rotation (Jackson, Tillman) </li></ul><ul><li>2.5b hectares of rainfed agriculture suitable land </li></ul><ul><li>Underutilized pasture land </li></ul><ul><li>Improved agricultural land </li></ul><ul><li>Multicrop forestry </li></ul><ul><li>Africa: low input agriculture? </li></ul><ul><li>… .. future inventions, optimizations, discoveries </li></ul>… better agronomic practices ?
    94. 94. energy crops: Sorghum 25 tons/acre (Prof. Holtzapple- Texas A&M)
    95. 95. the perennial advantage
    96. 96. Previously Switchgrass Previously Fallow
    97. 97. Where Will Biomass Come From? <ul><li>2030 Assumptions (Production): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>50% of annual crop land for winter cover crops and 70% of forest excess waste used </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Yields of 110 gallons per acre </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No recovery of degraded land is modeled; note 15.5M acres (or 70%) of land used for corn ethanol will be reclaimed in this scenario </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2030 Assumptions (Demand): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2030 AOE projections for US reduced by 20% to reflect CAFE / Energy Bill </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ethanol mileage discount of 15% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>90% of fleet is FFV </li></ul></ul>= Scenario 1: Demand - 2030 1,363M tons - 150 billion gallons at 110 gal/acre Waste 136M tons equiv. - 15 billion gallons of production Winter Cover Crops 735M tons - (158.5M acres at 4.6 tons/acre) Forest Excess Waste 158M tons Dedicated Crop Land 334M tons - 13.6M acres at 24 t/acre - 27.3M acres at 12 t/acre
    98. 98. Companies
    99. 99.
    100. 100. pilot plant
    101. 101. <ul><li>Ethanol for under $1.00 a gallon </li></ul>Coskata Biomass to Syngas Separation and recovery of Ethanol Biofermentation of syngas to ethanol
    102. 102. Steel mill waste gas Biomass syngas Ethanol & Butanol fuels OR + LanzaTech Process waste gas to fuel Carbon monoxide gas +
    103. 103. separation Milling Enzymes Nutrients Fermentation Gasoline Blend stock Chemical Precursor Feed Products Feedstock Gevo Biocatalyst Retrofit of ethanol plants Proprietary Bio-processing Future: Any bio-based sugar source Create market options Start with Jet Fuel Iso-Octane Proprietary Chemical processing Diesel Blend stock Regional Fuel and Chemical Biorefinery Diesel Chemical Products Materials gevo Advancing the New Era of Renewables
    104. 104. Synthetic Biology Recombinant Small Molecule Bio-Synthetic Pathway Gene 4 Gene 2 Gene 1 Gene 3 Gene 1 Artimisinin Source of genes Custom-Built Microbe Fermentation Diesel Synthetic Biology = Fermentation Diesel X Anti-Malarial
    105. 105. Hydrocarbon Biosynthesis Nature’s Energy Storage Metabolic modeling + Synthetic biology Renewable Feedstock LS9 Designer Biofuels & Chemicals X X X X X X X X >90% Energetic Yield From Feedstock Hydrocarbons
    106. 106. Biocrude Crude oil Refinery Kior: “biocrude” replaces crude Millions of Years
    107. 107. Kior: Millions of years  Minutes! 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 TAN ( mgKOH/g ) Oxygen (wt %) Biomass Thermal Cracking (Pyrolysis- seconds) Geo Thermal Conversion (Million of years) Catalytic Cracking (BCC in minutes)
    108. 108. biomass, geopolitics, and poverty Biomass & Poverty Belt
    109. 109. the “salve” for Africa? <ul><li>Carbon Price ($100’s billion per year?) </li></ul><ul><li>Biomass based Energy ($500 billion a year?) </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunities for “resource poor” (Solar & Biomass?) </li></ul><ul><li>vs. Aid, Debt Forgiveness, Trade Treaties … </li></ul>
    110. 110. … or get to work [email_address]
    111. 111. are biofuels root cause of deforestation? <ul><li>Source: Brazilian deforestation from Mongabay – citing Brazilian national Institute of Space Research </li></ul>What is the real, marginal impact of biofuels?
    112. 112. a pound of steak or a gallon of ethanol? <ul><li>Source: </li></ul>
    113. 113. livestock – the numbers Source: “The Climate Healers”, Saliesh Rao What is the real culprit in land use increase?
    114. 114. trajectory: biodiesel vs. ethanol vs. cellulosic Diesel “ Classic” Biodiesel Carbon reduction - 2008 80% Carbon reduction – 2012 80% Scalability (2030 Gallons/acre) 600-900 Sustainability (2030) Poor Unsubsidized 10 yr market competitiveness Poor (@ $45 oil price) Ethanol 20-30% 80% 2500 (cellulosic) High Good (@ $45 oil price) Cellulosic Diesel Not Available 80% 2500 (cellulosic) High Good (@ $45 oil price)