Financial Analysis - Veolia environnement operates utility and public tran…

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Financial Analysis - Veolia environnement operates utility and public tran…

  1. 1. 15.03.2013 Company Analysis - OverviewTicker: VIE FP Veolia Environnement SA Benchmark: Veolia Environnement operates utility and public transportation businesses. The EN Paris: VIE, Currency: EUR CAC 40 INDEX (CAC) Company supplies drinking water, provides waste management services, manages andCurrency: maintains heating and air conditioning systems, and operates rail and road passenger transportation systems.Sector: Utilities Industry: Multi-Utilities Year:Telephone 33-1-71-75-01-67 Revenue (M) 29439 Business Segments in EUR Sales (M) Geographic Segments in EUR Sales (M)Website www.veoliaenvironnement.com No of Employees #N/A N/A Water 12617 France 11459Address 36-38 Avenue Kleber Paris, 75116 France Waste Management 9740 Rest of Europe 5536Share Price Performance in EUR Energy 7290 Germany 2739Price 10.08 1M Return 7.5% Transportation United Kingdom 263252 Week High 12.16 6M Return 5.6% United States 228752 Week Low 7.38 52 Wk Return -11.0% Asia 191252 Wk Beta 1.07 YTD Return 10.1% Rest of the World 1610Credit RatingsBloomberg HY1 6% 0%S&P BBB+ Date 24.11.2000 Outlook NEG 7%Moodys Baa1 Date 07.02.2012 Outlook STABLE 25%Fitch BBB+ Date 22.05.2012 Outlook NEG 8%Valuation Ratios 40% 42% 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E 9%P/E 17.8x 20.4x - 508.3x 18.3x 13.6x 11.5xEV/EBIT 16.4x 16.3x 23.4x 17.6x - - -EV/EBITDA 8.6x 7.9x 5.9x 6.0x 7.7x 7.2x 6.4xP/S 0.3x 0.4x 0.1x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 10%P/B 1.5x 1.3x 0.6x 0.7x 0.6x 0.7x 0.7x 33%Div Yield 5.2% 5.5% 8.3% 7.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 20%Profitability Ratios % 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15EGross Margin 17.2 19.2 15.9 15.8 16.2 16.8 - France Rest of EuropeEBITDA Margin 10.0 12.9 12.8 10.2 9.0 9.4 9.9Operating Margin 5.3 6.2 3.2 3.5 4.3 4.7 5.3 Germany United Kingdom Water Waste Management EnergyProfit Margin 1.7 1.9 -1.7 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.7 United States AsiaReturn on Assets 1.2 1.1 -1.0 0.8 1.6 1.8 0.9Return on Equity 8.1 7.3 -6.6 5.5 4.0 5.1 6.2 Rest of the WorldLeverage and Coverage Ratios 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12Current Ratio 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 Current Capitalization in EURQuick Ratio 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 519.7EBIT/Interest 2.1 2.1 1.1 1.2 Market Capitalization (M) 5260.0Tot Debt/Capital 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Cash and ST Investments (M) #N/A N/ATot Debt/Equity 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.9 Total Debt (M) #N/A N/AEff Tax Rate % 21.6 28.0 239.8 52.5 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0 LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0 Investments (M) 0.0 Enterprise Value (M) Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  2. 2. Company Analysis - Analysts RatingsVeolia Environnement SATarget price in EURBroker Recommendation Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price Price Brokers Target Price 18 16 100% 18% 18% 21% 19% 19% 22% 23% 16 14 25% 26% 24% 25% 24% 80% 14 12 22% 18% 12 10 36% 31% 21% 24% 39% 25% 34% 38% 60% 30% 33% 8 10 8 6 40% 6 4 57% 59% 50% 50% 54% 52% 46% 45% 43% 4 2 20% 43% 42% 43% 2 0 Day by Day Brean Murray Bryan Garnier & Morgan Stanley Barclays Raymond S&P Capital IQ Natixis Securities(ESN) Kepler Capital Partners SA Credit Suisse Exane BNP JPMorgan Macquarie BPI Generale HSBC Nomura DZ Bank AG Dimensions AlphaValue Berenberg Bank Goldman Sachs Deutsche Bank Carret & Co Societe James Hammer Paribas Markets CM - CIC 0% 0 EVA Cie mars.12 avr.12 mai.12 juin.12 juil.12 août.12 sept.12 oct.12 nov.12 déc.12 janv.13 févr.13 Buy Hold Sell Price Target Price Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date 28-Feb-13 52% 24% 24% 15-Mar-13 10.08 9.82 Credit Suisse MICHEL DEBS underperform 9.00 13-Mar-13 31-Jan-13 54% 21% 25% 14-Mar-13 10.27 9.82 EVA Dimensions AUSTIN BURKETT hold 12-Mar-13 31-Dec-12 59% 18% 23% 13-Mar-13 10.21 9.82 Goldman Sachs DARIO CARRADORI neutral/neutral 11.30 11-Mar-13 30-Nov-12 57% 22% 22% 12-Mar-13 10.30 9.83 S&P Capital IQ STEWART SCHARF hold 11.00 8-Mar-13 31-Oct-12 43% 33% 24% 11-Mar-13 10.35 9.83 AlphaValue FABRICE FARIGOULE buy 12.30 7-Mar-13 28-Sep-12 43% 30% 26% 8-Mar-13 10.63 9.83 Bryan Garnier & Cie JULIEN DESMARETZ buy 13.00 6-Mar-13 31-Aug-12 42% 38% 19% 7-Mar-13 10.54 9.87 Day by Day VALERIE GASTALDY buy 11.90 5-Mar-13 31-Jul-12 50% 31% 19% 6-Mar-13 10.52 9.87 Societe Generale VINCENT AYRAL buy 9.80 1-Mar-13 29-Jun-12 45% 34% 21% 5-Mar-13 10.42 9.87 Morgan Stanley EMMANUEL TURPIN Equalwt/In-Line 10.00 1-Mar-13 31-May-12 46% 36% 18% 4-Mar-13 10.22 9.84 Raymond James EMMANUEL RETIF outperform 11.10 1-Mar-13 30-Apr-12 50% 25% 25% 1-Mar-13 9.64 9.84 CM - CIC Securities(ESN) OLIVIER BAILS hold 9.50 1-Mar-13 30-Mar-12 43% 39% 18% 28-Feb-13 9.64 9.58 Natixis PHILIPPE OURPATIAN buy 13.50 1-Mar-13 27-Feb-13 9.51 9.58 Exane BNP Paribas OLIVIER VAN DOOSSELAERE underperform 9.00 1-Mar-13 26-Feb-13 9.04 9.58 JPMorgan NATHALIE F CASALI underweight 7.00 22-Feb-13 25-Feb-13 9.25 9.58 Macquarie ATALLAH ESTEPHAN underperform 7.50 22-Feb-13 22-Feb-13 9.15 9.58 BPI LOUIS BOUJARD buy 11.30 11-Feb-13 21-Feb-13 9.03 9.74 Berenberg Bank ANDREW FISHER buy 10.80 5-Feb-13 20-Feb-13 9.37 9.74 Barclays JULIE ARAV overweight 11.00 25-Jan-13 19-Feb-13 9.56 9.74 HSBC VERITY MITCHELL overweight 10.50 18-Jan-13 18-Feb-13 9.47 9.74 Deutsche Bank JAMES BRAND hold 8.00 7-Jan-13 15-Feb-13 9.38 9.74 Nomura MARTIN YOUNG buy 9.90 12-Dec-12 14-Feb-13 9.28 9.74 Hammer Partners SA CHRIS MOORE sell 7.00 24-Apr-12 13-Feb-13 9.72 9.74 DZ Bank AG HASIM SENGUEL buy 13.00 29-Feb-12 12-Feb-13 9.71 9.74 Kepler Capital Markets TEAM COVERAGE not rated 31-Oct-11 11-Feb-13 9.56 9.74 Brean Murray Carret & Co MICHAEL E GAUGLER hold 6-Sep-11 8-Feb-13 9.70 9.64 7-Feb-13 9.61 9.69 6-Feb-13 9.51 9.69 5-Feb-13 9.44 9.69 4-Feb-13 9.31 9.61 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  3. 3. 15.03.2013Veolia Environnement SA Company Analysis - Ownership Ownership TypeOwnership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution Geographic Ownership 0%Shares Outstanding (M) 519.7 France 69.26% 1% 1% 4%Float 73.1% Norway 9.11% 3%Short Interest (M) United States 7.24% 6%Short Interest as % of Float Luxembourg 5.72% 43%Days to Cover Shorts Switzerland 3.02% 7%Institutional Ownership 42.83% Ireland 1.07%Retail Ownership 57.12% 57% Britain 0.97%Insider Ownership 0.05% Others 3.61% 9% 69% Institutional Ownership Distribution Investment Advisor 34.83% Government 25.26% Corporation 17.39% Institutional Ownership Retail Ownership Insider Ownership Mutual Fund Manager 13.29% France Norway United States LuxembourgPricing data is in EUR Others 9.23% Switzerland Ireland Britain OthersTop 20 Owners: TOP 20 ALL Institutional OwnershipHolder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source CountryCAISSE DES DEPOTS ET 47873873 0 482329270 9.17% 31.12.2011 Co File FRANCE 9%GROUPE INDUSTRIEL MA 32888732 0 331353975 6.30% 31.12.2011 Co File FRANCEGROUPAMA ASSET MANAG 29366758 0 295870087 5.62% 31.12.2011 Co File FRANCE 36%VELO INVEST 24681519 0 248666304 4.73% 31.12.2011 Co File NORWAY 13%ELECTRICITE DE FRANC 20577271 0 207316005 3.94% 31.12.2011 Co File FRANCEVEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT 14237927 0 143447115 2.73% 31.12.2011 Co File FRANCEAMUNDI 13947585 -16312801 140521919 2.67% 31.12.2011 13G FRANCEVANGUARD GROUP INC 6531940 158722 65809296 1.25% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATESPICTET & CIE 6461052 304 65095099 1.24% 30.11.2012 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND 17% 25%NATIXIS ASSET MANAGE 6190509 -64740 62369378 1.19% 31.01.2013 MF-AGG FRANCEPICTET ASSET MANAGEM 5783427 -224399 58268027 1.11% 30.11.2012 MF-AGG BRITAINMANDARINE GESTION 5636031 -643999 56783012 1.08% 28.02.2013 MF-AGG FRANCEBLACKROCK 5122492 120729 51609107 0.98% 13.03.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATESALLIANZ ASSET MANAGE 4776617 155025 48124416 0.91% 28.02.2013 ULT-AGG GERMANY Investment Advisor Government Corporation Mutual Fund Manager OthersAQR CAPITAL MANAGEME -3701595 -965860 -37293570 -0.71% 25.10.2012 Short UNITED STATESING INTERNATIONAL AD 3159183 -1040593 31828769 0.61% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG LUXEMBOURGJULIUS BAER MULTIPAR 3065847 92713 30888409 0.59% 29.02.2012 MF-AGG LUXEMBOURGAVIVA PLC 2974900 0 29972118 0.57% 28.02.2013 MF-AGG BRITAINB & G FUND PLC -2401599 678713 -24196110 -0.46% 04.03.2013 ShortMARSHALL WACE LLP -2140556 678713 -21566102 -0.41% 04.03.2013 Short BRITAINTop 5 Insiders:Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date SourcePROGLIO HENRI 248077 2499376 0.05% 31.12.2011 Co FileFREROT ANTOINE 10793 108739 0.00% 31.12.2011 Co FileSCHWEITZER LOUIS 5828 58717 0.00% 31.12.2011 Co FileMICHEL SERGE 3094 31172 0.00% 31.12.2011 Co FileBOUTON DANIEL 3065 30880 0.00% 31.12.2011 Co File Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  4. 4. Company Analysis - Financials I/IVVeolia Environnement SAFinancial information is in EUR (M) Equivalent EstimatesPeriodicity: Fiscal Year 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15EIncome StatementRevenue 30079 28603 22500 25245 28620 32628 35765 33952 28764 29647 29439 27066 27747 29586 - Cost of Goods Sold 24638 23726 18346 20561 23427 26930 30013 28116 23255 24919 24795Gross Income 5441 4877 4154 4684 5193 5699 5751 5836 5509 4728 4643 4385 4661 - Selling, General & Admin Expenses 3720 3336 2673 2791 3126 3308 3840 4050 3714 3771 3610 (Research & Dev Costs) 93 95 63 63 66 85 92 90 87 112Operating Income 1721 1541 1481 1893 2067 2390 1911 1786 1795 957 1033 1176 1315 1580 - Interest Expense 694 638 829 782 784 970 1111 864 852 862 839 - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) -44 8 14 -14 14 3 43 10 0 8 - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) 152 2431 -181 -99 -135 -280 -275 -196 -196 -138 -109Pretax Income 919 -1535 819 1225 1404 1698 1032 1108 1139 225 303 581 744 987 - Income Tax Expense 437 274 184 423 410 420 462 239 319 539 159Income Before XO Items 481 -1809 635 802 994 1278 570 869 820 -314 144 - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 106 -1 23 -139 27 -29 2 -386 - Minority Interests 142 246 138 179 236 327 304 258 291 173 136Diluted EPS Before XO Items 1.24 1.56 1.88 2.18 0.57 1.30 1.10 (0.99) 0.02Net Income Adjusted* 339 -2055 231 623 758 933 405 584 605 272 72 294 394 495EPS Adjusted 0.90 (4.99) 0.30 1.57 1.89 2.17 0.89 1.24 1.26 0.55 0.14 0.55 0.74 0.87Dividends Per Share 0.81 0.81 0.67 0.84 1.03 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.21 0.70 0.70 0.66 0.67 0.67 Payout Ratio % 65.7 53.4 53.5 55.0 58.1 215.0 97.8 110.9 1.20 0.90 0.76Total Shares Outstanding 403 403 397 399 404 457 458 479 485 505 520Diluted Shares Outstanding 412 403 399 404 435 460 471 482 496 507EBITDA 3682 3481 3484 3325 3262 3710 3384 3392 3698 3805 3014 2441 2600 2940*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges. Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  5. 5. Company Analysis - Financials II/IVPeriodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15EBalance SheetTotal Current Assets 15358.7002 15609.9004 15169.3 13541.6 15023.7 17214 19084.3 20221.7 20371.9 21948.5 22038.4 + Cash & Near Cash Items 2382 2538 4660 2336 2658 3116 3850 5614 5407 5724 5548 + Short Term Investments 169 1113 189 61 66 0 0 + Accounts & Notes Receivable 11146 10433 7292 8239 9779 9304 9702 9081 9252 8493 10306 + Inventories 1175 1068 589 676 732 839 1022 997 1131 1021 1018 + Other Current Assets 488 458 2439 2229 1789 3955 4511 4529 4582 6711 5166Total Long-Term Assets 26568 23221 20657 22768 25100 29093 30042 29595 31055 28457 22574 + Long Term Investments 1522 1368 2914 3053 5953 5529 6319 6204 6159 5931 3317 Gross Fixed Assets 24143 24722 21314 24092 16912 18886 19492 19990 21116 18673 Accumulated Depreciation 9602 10303 10356 11741 8993 9683 10064 10608 11413 10185 + Net Fixed Assets 14541 14419 10958 12352 7919 9203 9427 9382 9703 8488 6838 + Other Long Term Assets 10506 7433 6784 7363 11229 14361 14296 14009 15193 14038 12419Total Current Liabilities 15404 15291 16150 13793 15514 18069 18274 17657 18116 19680 18682 + Accounts Payable 6308 6242 9576 10374 5734 12945 13592 13076 13774 12599 11599 + Short Term Borrowings 3796 3827 5846 2645 3360 4264 3685 3438 3214 4383 3918 + Other Short Term Liabilities 5300 5222 728 774 6420 860 997 1143 1128 2699 3166Total Long Term Liabilities 17700 17375 14728 16823 18056 18047 21320 22029 22507 20890 16804 + Long Term Borrowings 12913 12586 12157 13723 14002 13948 17064 17647 17896 16707 13084 + Other Long Term Borrowings 4787 4788 2571 3100 4055 4099 4256 4382 4610 4184 3720Total Liabilities 33104 32666 30878 30616 33570 36116 39594 39686 40623 40571 35486 + Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Minority Interest 2585 2680 1726 1891 2193 2578 2531 2670 2929 2765 1974 + Share Capital & APIC 8287 8287 8500 8539 8704 11538 11373 11714 11823 12207 11077 + Retained Earnings & Other Equity -2049 -4802 -5277 -4736 -4344 -3925 -4372 -4253 -3947 -5137 -3925Total Shareholders Equity 8823 6165 4948 5694 6553 10191 9532 10131 10804 9835 9126Total Liabilities & Equity 41927 38831 35826 36309 40124 46307 49126 49817 51427 50406 44612Book Value Per Share 15.49 8.66 8.12 9.54 10.79 16.67 15.30 15.58 16.25 13.99 13.76 15.63 14.97 14.98 Tangible Book Value Per Share -5.59 -5.60 -12.54 -8.75 -10.70 -8.83 -9.56 -9.17 -6.36 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  6. 6. Company Analysis - Financials III/IVPeriodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15ECash FlowsNet Income 339 -2055 392 623 759 928 405 584 559 -490 394 281 371 473 + Depreciation & Amortization 1961 1940 2003 1432 1195 1319 1473 1606 1903 2848 1981 + Other Non-Cash Adjustments 480 2816 828 1294 951 838 1106 249 81 -115 -471 + Changes in Non-Cash Capital -463 398 294 -52 -112 -167 -81 432 106 -41 103Cash From Operating Activities 2317 3098 3517 3296 2793 2919 2902 2872 2648 2203 2007 + Disposal of Fixed Assets 198 226 316 174 141 213 330 259 205 169 174 + Capital Expenditures -2603 -2456 -1964 -2082 -2018 -2519 -2781 -2105 -2084 -2258 -2302 -1724 -2199 -2222 + Increase in Investments -1131 -474 -511 -1213 -1652 -2240 -1308 -661 -915 -736 -580 + Decrease in Investments 1573 494 2314 338 645 542 719 978 923 1728 3182 + Other Investing Activities -146 -903 19 244 -20 -16 -296 178 41 -53 -46Cash From Investing Activities -2109 -3112 175 -2540 -2904 -4018 -3335 -1352 -1830 -1150 428 + Dividends Paid -300 -309 -390 -374 -479 -564 -754 -434 -736 -547 -547 + Change in Short Term Borrowings -2032 399 1789 -2936 -239 -1535 -1437 -1324 -938 -535 -1269 + Increase in Long Term Borrowings 4194 4133 931 3134 1997 2060 3590 3301 538 745 1326 + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings -3870 -3791 -3469 -2319 -1001 -1363 -185 -1515 -149 -315 -1660 + Increase in Capital Stocks 1554 10 167 81 247 3058 3 162 137 5 3 + Decrease in Capital Stocks 0 0 -183 0 0 0 -80 + Other Financing Activities -208 -210 -617 -753 -41 -103 23 66 191 -142 -314Cash From Financing Activities -662 231 -1772 -3167 484 1554 1160 256 -957 -789 -2459Net Changes in Cash -454 217 1920 -2411 373 454 728 1776 -140 264 -25Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) -287 643 1553 1214 776 400 122 767 564 -56 -295 187 -170 -31Free Cash Flow To Firm 77 2196 1726 1331 1130 736 1444 1177 -1260 103Free Cash Flow To Equity -1797 1609 -224 2420 1488 220 9Free Cash Flow per Share -0.76 1.56 3.85 3.06 1.94 0.93 0.26 1.63 1.17 -0.11 -0.58 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  7. 7. Company Analysis - Financials IV/IVPeriodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15ERatio AnalysisValuation Ratios Price Earnings 24.3x 21.2x 23.9x 30.3x 28.2x 38.4x 17.8x 20.4x 508.3x 18.3x 13.6x 11.5x EV to EBIT 14.8x 15.5x 17.1x 16.3x 19.4x 19.3x 15.5x 16.4x 16.3x 23.4x 17.6x EV to EBITDA 6.9x 6.9x 7.3x 9.3x 12.3x 12.5x 8.7x 8.6x 7.9x 5.9x 6.0x 7.7x 7.2x 6.4x Price to Sales 0.3x 0.3x 0.5x 0.6x 0.8x 0.8x 0.3x 0.3x 0.4x 0.1x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x Price to Book 1.4x 2.4x 3.2x 3.9x 5.3x 3.7x 1.5x 1.5x 1.3x 0.6x 0.7x 0.6x 0.7x 0.7x Dividend Yield 3.7% 3.9% 2.6% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 5.5% 5.2% 5.5% 8.3% 7.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6%Profitability Ratios Gross Margin 18.1% 17.1% 18.5% 18.6% 18.1% 17.5% 16.1% 17.2% 19.2% 15.9% 15.8% 16.2% 16.8% EBITDA Margin 12.2% 12.2% 15.5% 13.2% 11.4% 11.4% 9.5% 10.0% 12.9% 12.8% 10.2% 9.0% 9.4% 9.9% Operating Margin 5.7% 5.4% 6.6% 7.5% 7.2% 7.3% 5.3% 5.3% 6.2% 3.2% 3.5% 4.3% 4.7% 5.3% Profit Margin 1.1% -7.2% 1.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 1.1% 1.7% 1.9% -1.7% 1.3% 1.1% 1.4% 1.7% Return on Assets 0.8% -5.1% 1.0% 1.7% 2.0% 2.1% 0.8% 1.2% 1.1% -1.0% 0.8% 1.6% 1.8% 0.9% Return on Equity 5.7% -42.3% 11.7% 17.7% 18.6% 15.5% 5.5% 8.1% 7.3% -6.6% 5.5% 4.0% 5.1% 6.2%Leverage & Coverage Ratios Current Ratio 1.00 1.02 0.94 0.98 0.97 0.95 1.04 1.15 1.12 1.12 1.18 Quick Ratio 0.89 0.92 0.75 0.77 0.81 0.69 0.74 0.83 0.81 0.72 0.85 Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) 2.48 2.42 1.79 2.42 2.64 2.47 1.72 2.07 2.11 1.11 1.23 Tot Debt/Capital 0.65 0.73 0.78 0.74 0.73 0.64 0.69 0.68 0.66 0.68 0.65 Tot Debt/Equity 1.89 2.66 3.64 2.87 2.65 1.79 2.18 2.08 1.95 2.14 1.86Others Asset Turnover 0.70 0.71 0.60 0.70 0.75 0.76 0.75 0.69 0.57 0.58 0.62 Accounts Receivable Turnover 2.59 2.65 2.54 3.25 3.18 3.42 3.76 3.62 3.14 3.34 3.13 Accounts Payable Turnover 3.81 3.76 2.26 2.07 2.92 2.89 2.28 2.11 1.74 1.88 2.05 Inventory Turnover 18.13 21.16 22.15 32.51 33.28 34.28 32.25 27.85 21.86 23.17 24.32 Effective Tax Rate 47.6% 22.5% 34.5% 29.2% 24.7% 44.8% 21.6% 28.0% 239.8% 52.5% Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  8. 8. Company Analysis - Peers Comparision VEOLIA SUEZ AMER STATES EDF GDF SUEZ RWE AG PENNON GRP PLC UNITED UTILITIES SEVERN TRENT FORTUM OYJ ENEL SPA E.ON SE ELEC DE STRASBRG SABESP GAS NATURAL SDG ENVIRONNE ENVIRONNEME WATELatest Fiscal Year: 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 03/2012 03/2012 03/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2011 12/201252-Week High 13.06 12.23 18.99 20.35 37.12 797.00 816.00 1836.00 18.90 3.30 19.80 56.14 108.00 97.20 15.8552-Week High Date 16.03.2012 16.03.2012 19.03.2012 21.08.2012 20.03.2012 19.07.2012 14.08.2012 14.08.2012 15.03.2012 14.01.2013 14.09.2012 05.03.2013 03.04.2012 28.02.2013 08.03.201352-Week Low 7.38 7.81 13.39 14.05 26.36 589.00 590.00 1442.71 12.81 2.02 12.42 34.90 88.00 66.57 8.3652-Week Low Date 16.11.2012 19.11.2012 29.11.2012 01.03.2013 08.02.2013 19.11.2012 12.04.2012 05.04.2012 23.07.2012 24.07.2012 08.02.2013 10.04.2012 04.12.2012 19.03.2012 23.07.2012Daily Volume 1268525 231213 477625 1654346 1282796 820874 2282284 383751 598767 42407694 3798839 164954 193 271800 992050 Current Price (3/dd/yy) 10.08 10.01 14.67 14.52 28.64 629.00 693.50 1636.00 15.15 2.60 13.04 55.26 96.00 92.70 15.56 52-Week High % Change -22.8% -18.1% -22.8% -28.6% -22.9% -21.1% -15.0% -10.9% -19.8% -21.3% -34.1% -1.6% -11.1% -4.6% -1.9% 52-Week Low % Change 36.6% 28.1% 9.5% 3.3% 8.7% 6.8% 17.5% 13.4% 18.3% 28.5% 5.0% 58.3% 9.1% 39.3% 86.1%Total Common Shares (M) 519.7 506.9 1846.7 2357.3 614.7 360.6 681.8 237.6 888.4 9403.4 1906.8 18.8 7.2 227.8 1000.7 Market Capitalization 5260.0 5107.4 27113.6 35034.2 17559.8 2293.7 4728.9 3899.6 13458.8 24411.1 26093.0 1064.5 688.3 21120.5 15565.7Total Debt 17001.6 10070.8 64501.0 57552.0 19946.0 2529.9 5855.2 4398.8 8777.0 66539.0 25944.0 342.7 7.1 8596.3 20432.0Preferred Stock - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Minority Interest 1973.6 1871.1 4854.0 11462.0 1613.0 - - 7.9 616.0 16387.0 3862.0 - 0.8 - 1618.0Cash and Equivalents 5547.8 2508.2 22307.0 11383.0 5276.0 425.3 321.2 295.1 963.0 9891.0 6097.0 1.3 232.2 2150.0 5693.0 Enterprise Value 18687.4 15042.8 74161.6 92665.2 33842.8 4466.7 10555.7 8072.0 21888.8 97446.1 49802.0 1365.8 575.2 27928.9 31922.7 ValuationTotal Revenue LFY 29438.5 15102.0 72729.0 97038.0 50771.0 1233.1 1564.9 1770.6 6159.0 82699.0 132093.0 466.9 707.3 9941.6 24904.0 LTM 29438.5 15102.0 72729.0 97038.0 50771.0 1224.2 1595.1 1802.3 6159.0 82699.0 132093.0 466.0 707.3 10488.9 24904.0 CY+1 27066.4 15331.7 72654.4 80580.1 53031.9 1225.5 1643.6 1832.8 6262.5 79507.9 110567.7 473.0 - 10677.0 24059.1 CY+2 27746.7 15911.4 75121.5 80720.6 53783.0 1286.8 1700.5 1877.5 6483.4 80500.8 112480.4 484.3 - 10778.3 24929.1EV/Total Revenue LFY 0.8x 0.9x 1.0x 1.0x 0.7x 3.9x 6.8x 4.6x 3.4x 1.2x 0.4x 2.5x 0.8x 2.6x 1.2x LTM 0.8x 1.0x 1.0x 1.0x 0.7x 3.9x 6.7x 4.5x 3.4x 1.2x 0.4x 2.6x 0.9x 2.5x 1.2x CY+1 0.7x 1.0x 1.0x 1.0x 0.6x 3.8x 6.2x 4.5x 3.5x 1.0x 0.4x - - 2.7x 1.3x CY+2 0.6x 0.9x 1.0x 1.0x 0.6x 3.8x 6.2x 4.4x 3.4x 1.0x 0.4x - - 2.7x 1.2xEBITDA LFY 3014.4 2077.9 14342.0 18401.0 9055.0 413.0 900.0 786.7 2360.0 16150.0 8443.0 133.3 129.2 3123.2 4865.0 LTM 3604.0 1980.7 14342.0 18401.0 9201.0 407.0 905.1 777.5 2403.0 16150.0 8443.0 146.1 130.7 3395.5 4885.0 CY+1 2441.3 2513.8 15963.9 14006.2 8775.6 410.8 964.3 828.6 2433.7 16076.7 9478.0 151.0 - 3576.0 4896.8 CY+2 2600.1 2682.1 16809.5 14153.5 8605.6 433.1 1008.4 852.5 2434.3 16301.5 9661.2 156.5 - 4276.3 5041.2EV/EBITDA LFY 7.6x 6.9x 5.1x 5.1x 3.9x 11.6x 11.9x 10.4x 8.9x 6.3x 6.0x 8.7x 4.4x 8.2x 6.2x LTM 6.4x 7.2x 5.1x 5.1x 3.9x 11.8x 11.8x 10.5x 8.7x 6.3x 6.0x 7.9x 4.3x 7.6x 6.1x CY+1 7.2x 5.9x 4.6x 5.8x 3.9x 11.3x 10.6x 9.9x 9.0x 5.1x 5.1x - - 8.0x 6.5x CY+2 6.8x 5.5x 4.5x 5.6x 4.0x 11.3x 10.4x 9.7x 9.0x 4.9x 5.0x - - 6.7x 6.0xEPS LFY 0.02 0.68 2.06 1.33 1.95 0.47 0.47 0.88 - 0.09 1.81 2.82 8.14 5.37 1.45 LTM 0.78 0.49 1.80 0.71 2.13 0.48 0.48 0.94 1.59 0.09 1.14 2.82 8.14 7.20 1.45 CY+1 0.55 0.65 1.76 1.36 3.88 0.42 0.40 0.92 1.28 0.34 1.30 2.75 - 7.05 1.35 CY+2 0.74 0.76 1.91 1.41 3.55 0.44 0.43 0.96 1.26 0.36 1.39 2.76 - 8.67 1.46P/E LFY 12.9x 20.3x 8.1x 20.4x 13.4x 13.1x 14.6x 17.5x 9.6x 28.8x 11.4x 19.6x 11.8x 12.9x 10.7x LTM 12.9x 26.4x 8.1x 10.9x 13.4x 13.3x 14.2x 15.9x - - 7.2x 19.6x 11.8x 12.9x - CY+1 18.3x 15.4x 8.3x 10.7x 7.4x 14.9x 17.4x 17.7x 11.8x 7.7x 10.0x 20.1x - 13.1x 11.5x CY+2 13.6x 13.2x 7.7x 10.3x 8.1x 14.4x 16.0x 17.0x 12.1x 7.2x 9.4x 20.1x - 10.7x 10.6xRevenue Growth 1 Year (0.7%) 1.8% 11.4% 7.0% 3.3% 6.4% 3.4% 3.5% (0.0%) 6.6% 16.9% 11.4% 25.8% 7.7% 18.2% 5 Year (2.9%) - 6.1% 7.2% 4.1% 7.9% (5.1%) 3.5% 7.7% 9.1% 16.4% 9.2% 9.6% 13.6% 19.2%EBITDA Growth 1 Year (20.8%) - 1.7% 14.5% 9.3% 3.2% 0.0% (0.7%) (1.5%) (6.1%) 97.8% - - (3.1%) 3.6% 5 Year (4.1%) 3.6% (1.7%) 20.7% 3.1% 5.7% 0.9% 2.7% 3.4% 10.7% (5.3%) 8.3% 5.0% 4.2% 17.0%EBITDA Margin LTM 12.0% 13.4% 19.7% 19.0% 18.1% 33.2% 56.7% 43.1% 39.0% 19.5% 6.4% 32.5% 21.5% 32.4% 19.6% CY+1 9.0% 16.4% 22.0% 17.4% 16.5% 33.5% 58.7% 45.2% 38.9% 20.2% 8.6% 31.9% - 33.5% 20.4% CY+2 9.4% 16.9% 22.4% 17.5% 16.0% 33.7% 59.3% 45.4% 37.5% 20.3% 8.6% 32.3% - 39.7% 20.2% Leverage/Coverage RatiosTotal Debt / Equity % 237.7% 203.6% 249.4% 96.3% 134.6% 307.7% 331.8% 451.9% 86.0% 181.0% 74.2% 83.9% 2.6% 81.5% 154.1%Total Debt / Capital % 65.1% 59.6% 67.7% 44.7% 54.8% 75.5% 76.8% 81.8% 44.8% 55.6% 40.1% 45.6% 2.5% 44.9% 57.9%Total Debt / EBITDA 5.500x 5.131x 4.497x 3.128x 2.168x 6.466x 6.606x 5.673x 3.653x 4.120x 3.073x 2.357x 0.077x 2.529x 4.183xNet Debt / EBITDA 4.238x 4.038x 2.942x 2.509x 1.594x 5.339x 6.438x 5.355x 3.252x 3.508x 2.351x 2.063x -0.871x 2.005x 3.017xEBITDA / Int. Expense 3.593x 4.988x 5.871x 7.468x 7.250x 2.156x 2.853x 2.337x 7.867x 6.247x 2.900x 5.630x 1218.642x 7.174x 5.266x Credit RatingsS&P LT Credit Rating BBB+ - A+ A *- BBB+ - - BBB- A- BBB+ A- A+ - BB+ BBBS&P LT Credit Rating Date 24.11.2000 - 17.01.2012 29.01.2013 27.07.2012 - - 28.01.2010 27.11.2012 08.03.2012 27.07.2012 30.07.2010 - 01.12.2011 17.12.2010Moodys LT Credit Rating Baa1 A3 Aa3 A1 A3 - - Baa1 A2 Baa2 A3 A2 - - WRMoodys LT Credit Rating Date 07.02.2012 20.05.2009 14.01.2009 03.07.2012 19.07.2011 - - 08.09.2009 15.07.2005 05.11.2012 05.10.2011 12.08.1993 - - 27.10.1999 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

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