Peak	
  Oil	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Stephen	
  Graham	
  
Newcastle	
  University	
  
	
  
What	
  is	
  Peak	
  Oil?	
  
Actually	
  many	
  versions	
  (from	
  Atkinson,	
  2009),	
  	
  
Global	
  UrbanisaEon	
  and	
  ModernizaEon	
  Means	
  Big	
  Increases	
  in	
  
Energy	
  and	
  especially	
  Fossil	...
Recap:	
  Cyborg	
  CiEes,	
  Resource	
  Flows	
  and	
  Ecological	
  Footprints	
  
History	
  of	
  CiEes	
  and	
  Energy	
  Intensity	
  

•  ‘culture	
  advances	
  as	
  the	
  amount	
  of	
  energy	
...
Recap	
  2:	
  Cascading	
  Effects	
  
Supply Disruptions: Oil Shock
...the	
  world	
  has	
  never	
  faced	
  a	
  problem	
  like	
  this.	
  Without	
  massive	
  
miEgaEon	
  more	
  th...
PoliEcs	
  of	
  Denial	
  e.g.	
  Sprawl	
  and	
  Automobility	
  
Ironically,	
  Marketed	
  to	
  
address	
  and	
  Exploit	
  
Urban	
  ‘insecurity’	
  
Huge	
  Environmental	
  and	
  
geopoliEcal	
  ImplicaEons:	
  
New	
  ‘Great	
  Game’	
  to	
  
scramble	
  for	
  Caspi...
ExploitaEon	
  of	
  Alberta	
  Oil	
  Sands	
  
Biofuels	
  Land	
  Grab	
  
Might	
  Sprawl	
  End	
  up	
  Being	
  an	
  advantage?	
  

•  “Suburban	
  sprawl”	
  in	
  fact	
  gives	
  us	
  an	...
Problems	
  

•  Denial:	
  “There	
  is	
  sEll	
  almost	
  no	
  admission	
  that	
  
effecEve	
  acEon	
  to	
  halt	
...
?	
  	
  

SoluEons

•  EcolocalisaEon:	
  
TransiEon	
  
Towns	
  
Movement	
  
•  hhp://
www.transiEon
network.org/	
  
...
•  Take	
  the	
  Threat	
  Seriously—Create	
  Peak-­‐Oil	
  Strategies	
  
•  Plan	
  and	
  Build	
  CiEes	
  with	
  R...
Assessment	
  Recap	
  
• 

Assessment

• 

Semester 1 Submission: (On Turnitin): by 12 noon 10th January 2012

• 

A 3000...
Semester	
  2	
  
•  An 3000 word assessed essay (80% of Sem. 2
assessment ) designed to assess student’s ability to
under...
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Peak oil

  1. 1. Peak  Oil         Stephen  Graham   Newcastle  University    
  2. 2. What  is  Peak  Oil?  
  3. 3. Actually  many  versions  (from  Atkinson,  2009),    
  4. 4. Global  UrbanisaEon  and  ModernizaEon  Means  Big  Increases  in   Energy  and  especially  Fossil  Fuel  demand    
  5. 5. Recap:  Cyborg  CiEes,  Resource  Flows  and  Ecological  Footprints  
  6. 6. History  of  CiEes  and  Energy  Intensity   •  ‘culture  advances  as  the  amount  of  energy   harnessed  per  capita  per  year  increases,  or  as   the  efficiency  or  economy  of  the  means  of   controlling  energy  is  increased,  or  both.’   •  White,  L.  A.  (1959)  The  EvoluEon  of  Culture:  The  Development  of  CivilizaEon  to  the   Fall  of  Rome.  New  York:  McGraw-­‐Hill.  
  7. 7. Recap  2:  Cascading  Effects  
  8. 8. Supply Disruptions: Oil Shock
  9. 9. ...the  world  has  never  faced  a  problem  like  this.  Without  massive   miEgaEon  more  than  a  decade  before  the  fact,  the  problem  will   be  pervasive  and  will  not  be  temporary.  Pre-­‐  vious  energy   transiEons  were  gradual  and  evoluEonary.  Oil  peaking  will  be   abrupt  and  revoluEonary.     R.  Hirsch,  R.  Bezdek,  and  R.  Wendling,  Peaking  of  World  Oil  ProducEon:  Impacts,  MiEgaEon,  and  Risk  Management  (Oakton,  VA:   U.S.  Department  of  Energy,  NaEonal  Energy  Technology  Laboratory,  2005).  QuotaEon  from  page  64.  
  10. 10. PoliEcs  of  Denial  e.g.  Sprawl  and  Automobility  
  11. 11. Ironically,  Marketed  to   address  and  Exploit   Urban  ‘insecurity’  
  12. 12. Huge  Environmental  and   geopoliEcal  ImplicaEons:   New  ‘Great  Game’  to   scramble  for  Caspian   Basin  reserves  
  13. 13. ExploitaEon  of  Alberta  Oil  Sands  
  14. 14. Biofuels  Land  Grab  
  15. 15. Might  Sprawl  End  up  Being  an  advantage?   •  “Suburban  sprawl”  in  fact  gives  us  an  advantage.   Detached  houses  are  easy  to  retrofit,  and  the   space  around  them  allows  for  solar  access  and   space  for  food  producEon.  A  water  supply  is   already  in  place,  our  pampered,  unproducEve   ornamental  gardens  have  ferEle  soils  and  ready   access  to  nutrients,  and  we  live  in  ideal  areas   with  mild  climates,  access  to  the  sea,  the  city,   and  inland  country.”   •  D.  Holmgren,  “Retrofifng  the  Suburbs  for  Sustainability,”  CSIRO  Sustainability  Network  (March  30,  2005)  ,hhp:// www.energybulleEn.net/5104.html.  Accessed  March  20,  2007.  QuotaEon  from  page  9.  
  16. 16. Problems   •  Denial:  “There  is  sEll  almost  no  admission  that   effecEve  acEon  to  halt  global  warming  will  mean   pufng  the  global  economy  into  sharp  reverse  and  that   peak  oil  will  in  any  case  have  the  same  effect.  “   Atkinson  2010   •  More  of  the  same:  neoliberalised  global  capitalism   •  AssumpEon  that  the  problems  are  ‘technical’  and  not   (geo)poliEcal:  Or  assumpEon  that  capitalist   technological  innovaEon  will  simply  sustain  new   economic  sectors  based  on  green  energy  to  address   the  problem  
  17. 17. ?     SoluEons •  EcolocalisaEon:   TransiEon   Towns   Movement   •  hhp:// www.transiEon network.org/   But  voluntarisEc   and  small,   affluent,  eco-­‐ aware   minoriEes.  Tend   not  to  address   big  ciEes  or   mass   populaEons  
  18. 18. •  Take  the  Threat  Seriously—Create  Peak-­‐Oil  Strategies   •  Plan  and  Build  CiEes  with  Reduced  Car  Dependence  (but  what   about  retrofi,ng?)   •  Rebuild  Peri-­‐Urban  Agricultures   •  Facilitate  Localism   •  Regulate  for  the  Post-­‐Oil  TransiEon   •  Prepare  Risk  Management  Scenarios  for  the  Future  
  19. 19. Assessment  Recap   •  Assessment •  Semester 1 Submission: (On Turnitin): by 12 noon 10th January 2012 •  A 3000 word essay, as follows. •  Jon Coaffee and David Murakami Wood (2007) argue that global urbanization means that “security is becoming more civic, urban, domestic and personal: security is coming home.” Discuss this statement and illustrate your essay with examples. In your conclusions, explore some of the implications of your discussion for the governance and planning of cities. •  Reference: Coaffee, J. and Murakami Wood, D. (2007), “The Global Urban Response to Terrorist Risk Security is Coming Home: Rethinking Scale and Constructing Resilience,” International Relations 20: 503
  20. 20. Semester  2   •  An 3000 word assessed essay (80% of Sem. 2 assessment ) designed to assess student’s ability to undertake and present research which engages with theoretical, empirical and policy-relevant materials in a sophisticated and critical manner (words) •  An individual presentation (20% of semester 2 assessment) designed to assess student’s ability to present research which engages with theoretical, empirical and policy-relevant materials in a sophisticated and critical manner •  Seminars in two parts: 1. Case studies: Start of semester from Graduate Students and a few other colleagues •  2. You!
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