The impact of decadal climate variability on terrestrial ecosystems

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Can we anticipate how key aspects of the climate system and the terrestrial environment are likely to behave over the coming decades?

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The impact of decadal climate variability on terrestrial ecosystems

  1. GEOG8280 THE IMPACT OF DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS
  2. “ Climate is now recognized as being continuously variable, on all scales of time. J. Murray Mitchell Jr. Quaternary Research, 1976 ”
  3. Source: Bartlein (2006), Encyclopedia of Quaternary Science
  4. DECADALCLIMATE VARIABILITY
  5. “ ‘Drought’ people get. ‘Decadal-scale climate variability’ gets me that glazed eye look. John Fleck Albuquerque Journal ”
  6. Behold, there comes seven years of great plentythroughout all the land of Egypt: And there shallarise a er them seven years of famine; and allthe plenty shall be forgo en in the land of Egypt;and the famine shall consume the land; Genesis 41, 29-30
  7. Benoit Mandelbrot March 2007
  8. Source: Wolfgang Beyer
  9. “ We shall speak of “Joseph-wild” behavior when the we est decade within a century includes an extraordinary “term” of wet years. ”
  10. Pacific Decadal Oscillation index3210-1-2-3 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
  11. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index
  12. Source: Cook et al., (2006), Science
  13. Source: Tim Shanahan, University of Texas at Austin
  14. “ Climate is now recognized as being continuously variable, on all scales of time. J. Murray Mitchell Jr. Quaternary Research, 1976 ”
  15. DOESTHE DECADAL TIMESCALE REALLY MATTER?
  16. “ An improved understanding of [Decadal Climate Variability] is very important because stakeholders and policymakers want to know the likely climate trajectory for the coming decades for applications to water resources, agriculture, energy, and infrastructure development. ”
  17. Low reservoirSource: Glen MacDonald
  18. GEOG8280 MAJOR TOPICS
  19. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relationto rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S.David B. Enfield, Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez and Paul J. TrimbleGeophysical Research Le ers, 2001
  20. September 12The role of the oceans
  21. Does the state of the PDO and AMO influence the frequency of drought? AMOnegative AMOpositive PDOpositive PDOnegativeMcCabe et al, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2004
  22. September 20 Impacts on terrestrial climatesSource: Franklin Hunting
  23. “ ... the use of high-resolution paleoclimate proxy data should be expanded because the short observational record and model uncertainty are unable to simulate [Decadal Climate Variability]... ” Mehta et al. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2011
  24. September 27 Its past behaviorSource: Stella Cousins
  25. “ Historical contingencies, whereby particular events leave persistent imprints, are widely acknowledged as critical factors in evolutionary biology. ” Jackson et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009
  26. September 27 Ecological impactsSource: Eli Sagor
  27. “ Although global coupled models designed in the last 15 years are able to generate DCV pa erns that resemble observed DCV pa erns, the models tend to displace them spatially ” and temporally with respect to observed pa erns. Mehta et al. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2011
  28. November 15Can models simulate this behavior?
  29. OBSERVATIONS PROXIES MODELS
  30. ~10 yr~100 yr = variability low ‘n’ observations
  31. October 22 or 23Extracting decadal pa erns
  32. “ Discharge or lake records ‘‘have a tendency to exhibit more pronounced and smoother cycles’’ than precipitation because of storage. ” Vit Klemeš
  33. November 8Contrary perspectives
  34. Do proxiesPUMP UP low-frequency signals?
  35. DETERMINISTIC? STOCHASTIC?
  36. SIGNAL? NOISE?
  37. December 10 or 11Future research directions
  38. GEOG8280COURSE STRUCTURE
  39. PLEASE READ
  40. 35% In-class discussionResearch proposal 5% 30% Collaborative presentations Final report 30%
  41. GEOG8280 ABOUT ME
  42. GEOG8280 ABOUT YOU
  43. 1 Who are you and what is your program and department? 2 Why are you interested in decadal variability (or why might you be interested) ? 3 What prior coursework or experience of yours is most connected to this topic?
  44. “ The decadal time scale offers a critical bridge for informing adaptation strategies as ” climate varies and changes. Meehl et al., BAMS, 2009
  45. GEOG8280 THE IMPACT OF DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS
  46. WHAT IS DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY?
  47. Source: Bartlein (2006), Encyclopedia of Quaternary Science
  48. course blogh p://blog.lib.umn.edu/stgeorge/decadalblog/
  49. GEOG8280 XT C L AS SNE

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