Slideshow Transcript

1. Slide 1: TALES IN the story of Prairie drought TIMBER written in tree rings
2. Slide 4: stationarity A stationary time series is free of trends, shifts or periodicity, and has statistical parameters that remain constant through time.
3. Slide 5: STATIONARIT Y
4. Slide 6: Christopher Milly, Julio Betancourt, Malin Falkenmark, Robert Hirsch, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Dennis Lettenmaier, Ronald Stouffer Stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science 319, 573-574, 2008
5. Slide 8: risk
6. Slide 9: photograph courtesy Manitoba Hydro
7. Slide 10: climate change variability
8. Slide 11: 40000 600 total energy 400 (000 000 kWh) 30000 200 20000 0 -200 10000 -400 0 -600 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Source: Annual reports of the Manitoba Hydro-Electric Board
9. Slide 12: 40000 600 total energy 400 (000 000 kWh) 30000 200 20000 0 -200 10000 net income -400 ($M CDN) 0 -600 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Source: Annual reports of the Manitoba Hydro-Electric Board
10. Slide 13: 58% Percentage of Canada’s power supply 19% 12% 6% 3% 2% Source: Canadian Electricity Association
11. Slide 14: 100 years of stream and lake gauging
12. Slide 15: resource allocation
13. Slide 16: worst-case scenarios
14. Slide 20: 100 years of stream and lake gauging
15. Slide 21: not enough
16. Slide 23: South Saskatchewan River at Saskatoon relative change in summer flow Schindler and Donahue, 2006, PNAS
17. Slide 24: Annual discharge since 1924 + 58% NO TREND + 52% + 46% NO TREND NO TREND NO TREND NO TREND
18. Slide 25: How bad can Prairie drought get?
19. Slide 27: relative change in runoff at mid-century Milly et al., 2005, Nature
20. Slide 28: 100 years of stream and lake gauging
21. Slide 30: R ECO R D S F RO M ANCIEN T TR EES
22. Slide 31: Photograph by Andy Frassetto
23. Slide 33: Tree-ring display at elementary school Photograph courtesy Tom Swetnam
24. Slide 34: dendrochronology the dating and study of annual rings in trees, and their application to problems in archeology, climatology, ecology and many other disciplines
25. Slide 35: ARIZ ONA
26. Slide 36: A. E. Douglass University of Arizona
27. Slide 37: “ The trees composing the forest rejoice and lament with its successes and failures and carry year by year something of its story in their annual rings. A.E. DOUGLASS
28. Slide 38: Same environmental forcings Similar growth patterns
29. Slide 39: Same environmental forcings Similar growth patterns
30. Slide 42: Photograph by Howard Arnott
31. Slide 43: Global network of tree-ring records 42
32. Slide 45: 44
33. Slide 48: Martin-Philippe Girardin Canadian Forest Service Greg Pederson United States Geological Survey Glen MacDonald David Sauchyn Emma Watson UCLA University of Regina Environment Canada Erik Nielsen Jacques Tardif Manitoba Geological Survey University of Winnipeg
34. Slide 49: Photo: Tom Harlan
35. Slide 50: Photo: Peter Kelly
36. Slide 53: Photo: Greg Pederson
37. Slide 54: 53
38. Slide 55: never trust one tree
39. Slide 56: 2,860 trees
40. Slide 57: 889,862 tree rings
41. Slide 59: Prairie tree-ring network
42. Slide 60: How bad can Prairie drought get?
43. Slide 61: 755 m3/s 847 m3/s 809 m3/s 770 m3/s 823 m3/s 787 m3/s 901 m3/s 3
44. Slide 62: “ This must be voodoo. ” Anonymous water manager
45. Slide 63: How good are drought records from tree rings?
46. Slide 64: geography matters
47. Slide 65: 10 southern Alberta 3 2 5 1 Ringwidth PDSI 0 0 -1 -5 -2 -3 -10 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 St. George et al., (accepted), Journal of Climate Year (A.D.)
48. Slide 66: 10 southern Alberta 3 2 5 1 Ringwidth PDSI 0 0 -1 -5 r = 0.62 -2 -3 -10 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 St. George et al., (accepted), Journal of Climate Year (A.D.)
49. Slide 67: northwestern Ontario 3 6 2 4 1 Ringwidth 2 PDSI 0 0 -2 -1 -4 r = 0.40 -2 -6 -3 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 St. George et al., (accepted), Journal of Climate Year (A.D.) 66
50. Slide 70: seasonality
51. Slide 72: Photo: New York Times 71
52. Slide 73: 72
53. Slide 74: 73
54. Slide 75: “ Trees are not thermometers or raingauges. KEITH BRIFFA AND COLLEAGUES
55. Slide 76: 755 m3/s 847 m3/s 809 m3/s 770 m3/s 823 m3/s 787 m3/s 901 m3/s 3
56. Slide 77: Very wet Wet Average Dry Very dry
57. Slide 80: How bad can Prairie drought get?
58. Slide 81: ‘Now’ ‘Then’ (AD 1900 - present) (AD 1500 - 1900)
59. Slide 82: geography matters
60. Slide 83: base map courtesy Lake of the Woods Control Board
61. Slide 84: 1783
62. Slide 86: How bad can Prairie drought get?
63. Slide 87: 1910
64. Slide 89: more persistent more severe
65. Slide 90: 1860s
66. Slide 91: 1842 to 1876 Above average Below average
67. Slide 92: 1842 to 1876 Above average Below average
68. Slide 93: 1842 to 1876 Above average Below average
69. Slide 94: 91
70. Slide 95: 1720s
71. Slide 96: 58 oN 56 oN 1718 - 1722 54 oN 52 oN 50 oN 48 oN oW 90 114 oW o o oW 96 108 W 102 W Ringwidth anomaly −2 -2 −1 0 0 1 2 +2 (deviations)
72. Slide 97: “ Trees are not thermometers or raingauges. KEITH BRIFFA AND COLLEAGUES
73. Slide 98: 1 1936-1940 0.8 0.6 Probability 0.4 0.2 0 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 PDSI
74. Slide 99: 1 1936-1940 0.8 0.6 Probability 27 percent 0.4 below -5 PDSI 0.2 0 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 PDSI
75. Slide 100: 1 1936-1940 0.8 0.6 Probability 0.4 9 percent 0.2 below -6 PDSI 0 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 PDSI
76. Slide 102: How bad can Prairie drought get?
77. Slide 103: more persistent more severe eds ter sh me wa in so
78. Slide 104: t per fect “ Pa bu leo d t can ata a be a re no n imp rovem ent. ” Ben Harding nvironm ental AMEC E
79. Slide 105: LE SS ONS L E A RNED
80. Slide 106: PUBLICATIONS 1 WINNIPEG RIVER STREAMFLOW St. George, S. 2007. Streamflow in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada: trends, extremes and climate linkages. Journal of Hydrology 332, 396-411. 2 TREE-RING RECORDS FROM NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO St. George, S., Meko, D.M. and Evans, M.E. 2008. Regional tree growth and inferred summer climate in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada since AD 1783. Quaternary Research 70, 158-172. 3 PRAIRIE DROUGHTS SINCE AD 1500 St. George, S., Meko, D.M., Girardin, M.P., Nielsen, E., Pederson, G., Sauchyn, D.J., Tardif, J. and Watson, E. (accepted). The tree-ring record of summer drought in the Canadian Prairies. Journal of Climate.
81. Slide 107: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo
82. Slide 110: 105
83. Slide 112: 3 main applications
84. Slide 113: climate change YOU CAN TOUCH
85. Slide 114: BENCHMARKS for recent events and trends
86. Slide 115: starting points for ‘paleo’ scenarios 110
87. Slide 117: Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Agency
88. Slide 118: City of Calgary
89. Slide 119: Alberta Environment Agriculture Canada Alberta Parks AMEC City of Calgary DIAND Ducks Unlimited Environment Canada EPCOR Water Services Golder Associates Government of Yukon Klohn Crippen Berger Ltd. Landscape Irrigation Solutions Ltd. Manitoba Hydro Manitoba Water Stewardship Natural Resources Canada North Saskatchewan Watershed Alliance Parks Canada Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Agency R. Halliday & Associates Sahtu Renewable Resources Board Saskatchewan Agriculture Saskatchewan Water Authority Siksika Nation Sustainability Resources Inc. University of Calgary University of Saskachewan
90. Slide 120: USER PRIORITIES
91. Slide 121: USER PRIORITIES 1 DATA ACCESS make paleohydrological data and meta-data more accessible to users and other non-scientists, and create community standards for data quality and methods
92. Slide 122: USER PRIORITIES 1 DATA ACCESS make paleohydrological data and meta-data more accessible to users and other non-scientists, and create community standards for data quality and methods 2 TECHNICAL WORKSHOPS hold workshops for small groups on the technical aspects of proxy records and paleohydrological reconstruction
93. Slide 123: USER PRIORITIES 1 DATA ACCESS make paleohydrological data and meta-data more accessible to users and other non-scientists, and create community standards for data quality and methods 2 TECHNICAL WORKSHOPS hold workshops for small groups on the technical aspects of proxy records and paleohydrological reconstruction 3 TEST PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS focused studies to address (1) whether or not current projections are based on abnormally wet or dry conditions and (2) if the stationarity assumption is valid
94. Slide 124: USER PRIORITIES 1 DATA ACCESS make paleohydrological data and meta-data more accessible to users and other non-scientists, and create community standards for data quality and methods 2 TECHNICAL WORKSHOPS hold workshops for small groups on the technical aspects of proxy records and paleohydrological reconstruction 3 TEST PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS focused studies to address (1) whether or not current projections are based on abnormally wet or dry conditions and (2) if the stationarity assumption is valid 4 KEEP SCIENTISTS AND USERS TALKING continue engagement between scientists and users, especially in regards to the development of new scientific products and their potential applications
95. Slide 125: VIC BAKER UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
96. Slide 126: “ HAPPEN AGAIN Common sense holds that what has really happened CAN VIC BAKER UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
97. Slide 127: Photo: Monceau web.mac.com/scottstgeorge