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Tales in timber - the story of Prairie drought written in tree rings

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    Tales in timber - the story of Prairie drought written in tree rings - Presentation Transcript

    1. TALES IN the story of Prairie drought TIMBER written in tree rings
    2. stationarity A stationary time series is free of trends, shifts or periodicity, and has statistical parameters that remain constant through time.
    3. STATIONARIT Y
    4. Christopher Milly, Julio Betancourt, Malin Falkenmark, Robert Hirsch, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Dennis Lettenmaier, Ronald Stouffer Stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science 319, 573-574, 2008
    5. 100 years of stream and lake gauging
    6. resource allocation
    7. worst-case scenarios
    8. photograph courtesy Manitoba Hydro
    9. risk
    10. climate change variability
    11. 40000 600 total energy 400 (000 000 kWh) 30000 200 20000 0 -200 10000 -400 0 -600 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Source: Annual reports of the Manitoba Hydro-Electric Board
    12. 40000 600 total energy 400 (000 000 kWh) 30000 200 20000 0 -200 10000 net income -400 ($M CDN) 0 -600 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Source: Annual reports of the Manitoba Hydro-Electric Board
    13. 58% Percentage of Canada’s power supply 19% 12% 6% 3% 2% Source: Canadian Electricity Association
    14. 100 years of stream and lake gauging
    15. enough?
    16. regional differences
    17. South Saskatchewan River at Saskatoon relative change in summer flow Schindler and Donahue, 2006, PNAS
    18. Annual discharge since 1924 + 58% NO TREND + 52% + 46% NO TREND NO TREND NO TREND NO TREND
    19. uncertain futures
    20. relative change in runoff at mid-century Milly et al., 2005, Nature
    21. alternative?
    22. paleoclimatology the study of the Earth’s climate prior to the period of instrumental measurements
    23. R ECO R D S F RO M ANCIEN T TR EES
    24. Photograph by Andy Frassetto
    25. Tree-ring display at elementary school Photograph courtesy Tom Swetnam
    26. ARIZ ONA
    27. A. E. Douglass University of Arizona
    28. “ The trees composing the forest rejoice and lament with its successes and failures and carry year by year something of its story in their annual rings. A.E. DOUGLASS
    29. Same environmental forcings Similar growth patterns
    30. Same environmental forcings Similar growth patterns
    31. Photograph by Howard Arnott
    32. Global network of tree-ring records 44
    33. 755 m3/s 847 m3/s 809 m3/s 770 m3/s 823 m3/s 787 m3/s 901 m3/s 3
    34. CLIMATE direct HYDROLOGY
    35. CLIMATE direct direct PROXIES HYDROLOGY
    36. CLIMATE direct direct PROXIES HYDROLOGY indirect
    37. Photo: Tom Harlan
    38. Photo: Peter Kelly
    39. Photo: Greg Pederson
    40. 60
    41. Martin-Philippe Girardin Canadian Forest Service Greg Pederson United States Geological Survey Glen MacDonald David Sauchyn Emma Watson UCLA University of Regina Environment Canada Erik Nielsen Jacques Tardif Manitoba Geological Survey University of Winnipeg
    42. 2,860 trees
    43. 889,862 tree rings
    44. Prairie tree-ring network
    45. climate change variability
    46. How bad can Prairie drought get?
    47. 755 m3/s 847 m3/s 809 m3/s 770 m3/s 823 m3/s 787 m3/s 901 m3/s 3
    48. “ This must be voodoo. ” Anonymous water manager
    49. How good are drought records from tree rings?
    50. geography matters
    51. 10 southern Alberta 3 2 5 1 Ringwidth PDSI 0 0 -1 -5 -2 -3 -10 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 St. George et al., (accepted), Journal of Climate Year (A.D.)
    52. 10 southern Alberta 3 2 5 1 Ringwidth PDSI 0 0 -1 -5 r = 0.62 -2 -3 -10 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 St. George et al., (accepted), Journal of Climate Year (A.D.)
    53. northwestern Ontario 3 6 2 4 1 Ringwidth 2 PDSI 0 0 -2 -1 -4 r = 0.40 -2 -6 -3 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 St. George et al., (accepted), Journal of Climate Year (A.D.) 76
    54. seasonality
    55. Photo: New York Times 79
    56. 80
    57. 81
    58. “ Trees are not thermometers or raingauges. KEITH BRIFFA AND COLLEAGUES
    59. 755 m3/s 847 m3/s 809 m3/s 770 m3/s 823 m3/s 787 m3/s 901 m3/s 3
    60. Very wet Wet Average Dry Very dry
    61. t per fect “ Pa bu leo d t can ata a be a re no n imp rovem ent. ” Ben Harding nvironm ental AMEC E
    62. How bad can drought get?
    63. 100 years of stream and lake gauging
    64. ‘Now’ ‘Then’ (AD 1900 - present) (AD 1500 - 1900)
    65. geography matters
    66. base map courtesy Lake of the Woods Control Board
    67. 1783
    68. How bad can drought get?
    69. 1910
    70. How bad can drought get?
    71. more persistent more severe
    72. 1860s
    73. 1842 to 1876 Above average Below average
    74. 1842 to 1876 Above average Below average
    75. 1842 to 1876 Above average Below average
    76. 101
    77. 1720s
    78. 58 oN 56 oN 1718 - 1722 54 oN 52 oN 50 oN 48 oN oW 90 114 oW o o oW 96 108 W 102 W Ringwidth anomaly −2 -2 −1 0 0 1 2 +2 (deviations)
    79. “ Trees are not thermometers or raingauges. KEITH BRIFFA AND COLLEAGUES
    80. 1 1936-1940 0.8 0.6 Probability 0.4 0.2 0 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 PDSI
    81. 1 1936-1940 0.8 0.6 Probability 27 percent 0.4 below -5 PDSI 0.2 0 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 PDSI
    82. 1 1936-1940 0.8 0.6 Probability 0.4 9 percent 0.2 below -6 PDSI 0 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 PDSI
    83. ‘Now’ ‘Then’ (AD 1900 - present) (AD 1500 - 1900)
    84. LE SS ONS L E A RNED
    85. PUBLICATIONS 1 WINNIPEG RIVER STREAMFLOW St. George, S. 2007. Streamflow in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada: trends, extremes and climate linkages. Journal of Hydrology 332, 396-411. 2 TREE-RING RECORDS FROM NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO St. George, S., Meko, D.M. and Evans, M.E. 2008. Regional tree growth and inferred summer climate in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada since AD 1783. Quaternary Research 70, 158-172. 3 PRAIRIE DROUGHTS SINCE AD 1500 St. George, S., Meko, D.M., Girardin, M.P., Nielsen, E., Pederson, G., Sauchyn, D.J., Tardif, J. and Watson, E. (accepted). The tree-ring record of summer drought in the Canadian Prairies. Journal of Climate.
    86. WORLD D ATA C E N T E R f o r PA L E O C L I M AT O L O G Y
    87. does the past really matter?
    88. 100 years of stream and lake gauging
    89. 3 main applications
    90. climate change YOU CAN TOUCH
    91. BENCHMARKS for recent events and trends
    92. starting points for ‘paleo’ scenarios 118
    93. Alberta Environment Agriculture Canada Alberta Parks AMEC City of Calgary DIAND Ducks Unlimited Environment Canada EPCOR Water Services Golder Associates Government of Yukon Klohn Crippen Berger Ltd. Landscape Irrigation Solutions Ltd. Manitoba Hydro Manitoba Water Stewardship Natural Resources Canada North Saskatchewan Watershed Alliance Parks Canada Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Agency R. Halliday & Associates Sahtu Renewable Resources Board Saskatchewan Agriculture Saskatchewan Water Authority Siksika Nation Sustainability Resources Inc. University of Calgary University of Saskachewan
    94. USER PRIORITIES
    95. USER PRIORITIES MAKE PALEO-DATA MORE ACCESSIBLE
    96. USER PRIORITIES MAKE PALEO-DATA MORE ACCESSIBLE HOLD TECHNICAL WORKSHOPS
    97. USER PRIORITIES MAKE PALEO-DATA MORE ACCESSIBLE HOLD TECHNICAL WORKSHOPS TEST PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS
    98. USER PRIORITIES MAKE PALEO-DATA MORE ACCESSIBLE HOLD TECHNICAL WORKSHOPS TEST PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS KEEP SCIENTISTS AND USERS TALKING
    99. VIC BAKER UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
    100. “ HAPPEN AGAIN Common sense holds that what has really happened CAN VIC BAKER UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
    101. Photo: Monceau web.mac.com/scottstgeorge

    + Scott St. GeorgeScott St. George, 2 years ago

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