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TREE-RING RECORDS REVEAL CLIMATE HISTORY

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Scott St. George
Scott St. George

1. Tree ring records from across the Northern Hemisphere provide a powerful tool to study past climate, though the information that can be recovered varies regionally depending on climate influences on individual tree species. 2. The large global tree ring network allows understanding of tree-climate relationships without being influenced by decisions to include or exclude certain records, improving the accuracy of paleoclimate reconstructions. 3. Tree ring records have been used to generate reconstructions of large-scale climate drivers like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, though conclusions depend on the choice of reconstruction method and data.

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SEEINGTHEFORESTFOR THETREE(RING)S An overview of tree-ring width records across the Northern Hemisphere University of North Carolina | Department of Geography | October 24, 2014
Andrew Douglass Flagstaff 1898
Hal Fri"s 1964
Large sets of ring-width data have provided the foundation for many proxy estimates of regional or global surface temperature. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, AR5, Working Group 1
The Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas generated yearly maps of drought severity Source: Cook et al., Science, 2010 based on ring-width and other tree-ring measurements.
Surrogate estimates of discharge have been used to produce ‘worst-case’ scenarios for water supplies in major western rivers, including the Colorado. Source: Meko et al., Geophysical Research Le!ers, 2007
TREE-RING MYTHS
“IF NO RING WAS FORMED IN A GIVEN YEAR, ” THAT CREATES A FURTHER COMPLICATION, INTRODUCING AN ERROR IN THE CHRONOLOGY ESTABLISHED BY COUNTING RINGS BACK IN TIME. Dr. Michael Mann Penn State News, February 6, 2012
“ MANY HIGH-RESOLUTION PALEOCLIMATE RECORDS, SUCH AS THOSE BASED ON TREE RINGS, ” ARE BIASED TOWARDS RECORDING CLIMATE CONDITIONS DURING THE SUMMER SEASON, THE CRITICAL PERIOD FOR PLANT GROWTH. Ersek et al., Nature Communications, 2012
“ CONVERSELY, GROWTH RATES IN ” DROUGHT SENSITIVE TREES ARE PRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT DURING THE GROWING SEASON (I.E., SPRING AND SUMMER)… Steinman et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2012
Source: Erika Wise
1Despite their simplicity, the millions of observations that make up the global tree-ring network provide us with a powerful and flexible tool to study forest vigor and climate.
2The climate ‘filtering’ conducted by individual trees creates major regional differences in information that may be recovered from the hemispheric network.
3Because the Northern Hemisphere ring-width network is now so large, our understanding of tree-environment relations must not be influenced by decisions to include or exclude certain records.
Dr. Toby Ault Cornell University
MILLIONSOFRINGS
SIMPLE NOT ‘EASY’
How many tree rings can you count?
Source: Peter Brown
Sarah Appleton Crater Lake, Oregon
Source: Sarah Appleton
1807 1808 1809 1811 1812 1813 Source: Sarah Appleton
Source: Sarah Appleton
The trees composing the forest rejoice and lament with its successes and failures and carry year by year something of its story in their annual rings.” “ A. E. Douglass University of Arizona
Source: Baillie (1982)
Source: Phil Camill
Source: Uday Kunwar Thapa
The International Tree-Ring Database holds more than 3,200 records Pinus Picea Quercus Pseudotsuga Larix Nothofagus Austrocedris Phyllocladus Agathis Source: St. George, PAGES News, 2014 from every continent except Antarctica.
1Despite their simplicity, the millions of observations that make up the global tree-ring network provide us with a powerful and flexible tool to study forest vigor and climate.
THEIMPRINTOFCLIMATE
Tree-ring display at elementary school Photograph: Tom Swetnam
Dr. Hal Fri"s University of Arizona
Fri"s, H.C. Growth-rings of trees: their correlation with climate. Science 154, 973-975 (1966).
“THROUGH SEVERAL DIFFERENT STUDIES ” MY ASSOCIATES AND I HAVE ACCUMULATED MORE THAN 40 REPLICATED SAMPLES OF TREE RINGS FROM A VARIETY OF SPECIES AND SITES NEAR WEATHER STATIONS HAVING RELATIVELY LONG AND CONTINUOUS RECORDS, IN ARIZONA, COLORADO, CALIFORNIA, AND ILLINOIS. Dr. Hal Fri"s Science, 1966
LOW-ELEVATION FORESTS IN SEMI-ARID REGIONS carry-over effects from wintertime climate HIGH-ELEVATION OR HIGH-LATITUDE FORESTS climate during the growing season
The principles outlined by Fri"s have guided the collection of tree-ring records at thousands of locations around the planet since the 1970s. Pinus Picea Pseudotsuga Quercus Larix A C 36ºN 18ºN records records B 54ºN 72ºN 90ºN 180ºW 120ºW 60ºW 0º 60ºE 120ºE 180ºW 2000 1000 12% 6% 0º Source: St. George et al., Geophysical Research Le!ers, 2013
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6 +0.8 correlation coefficient (ring-width vs. local climate)
(a) Winter precipitation WINTER PRECIPITATION Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
Winter precipitation WINTER PRECIPITATION Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
WINTER PRECIPITATION (a) Winter precipitation (b) Summer precipitation Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
(b) Summer precipitation SUMMER PRECIPITATION Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
(b) Summer precipitation SUMMER PRECIPITATION Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
SUMMER PRECIPITATION (b) Summer precipitation (c) Summer temperature Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
(c) Summer temperature SUMMER TEMPERATURE -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 +0.2 +0.4 +Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
(c) Summer temperature SUMMER TEMPERATURE Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6 +0.8
SUMMER TEMPERATURE (c) Summer temperature -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6 +0.8 Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
Fri"s, H.C. Growth-rings of trees: their correlation with climate. Science 154, 973-975 (1966).
summer temperature winter precipitation summer precipitation
summer temperature winter precipitation summer temperature summer precipitation winter precipitation summer
summer temperature winter precipitation summer precipitation
GEOGRAPHICBIASES
Angiosperms (including Quercus) diverged from the gymnosperms at least 140 mya.
Xiaolu (Grace) Li Cornell University
Vaganov et al., In Dendroclimatology, 2010
Synthetic tree-ring records generated by a forward model (and modern climate data) oW 120exhibit the same spatial pa"erns in climate response as do real trees. 60oW 0o 60oE 120oE 75oN 90oN SOIL MOISTURE : TEMPERATURE Source: LI et al., in preparation
2The climate ‘filtering’ conducted by individual trees creates major regional differences in information that may be recovered from the hemispheric network.
Cook et al., Earth Science Reviews, 2007
PLANETARYDENDROCLIMATOLOGY
The International Tree-Ring Database holds more than 3,200 records Pinus Picea Quercus Pseudotsuga Larix Nothofagus Austrocedris Phyllocladus Agathis Source: St. George, PAGES News, 2014 from every continent except Antarctica.
BENEFITS OF LARGE NETWORKS assign more weight to behavior exhibited by many records and tree species reduce emphasis given to unusual records that may be dominated by non-climatic noise improve the accuracy of paleoclimate reconstructions Source: Meko et al., Journal of Climate, 1993
Climate field reconstructions can only be produced through analysis of large arrays of proxy data. Source: Wise and Dannenberg, Nature Communication, 2014
ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation
H H PACIFIC WARM POOL
“El Niño-Southern Oscillation-related hydroclimatic variability in the western United States is characterized by a north– south dipole pa"ern of precipitation anomalies with opposing signs.” Source: Wise, Geophysical Research Le!ers, 2010
EL NIÑO enhances tree growth LA NIÑA suppresses tree growth
ENSO Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION
... the use of high-resolution paleoclimate proxy data should be expanded because the short observational record and model uncertainty are unable to simulate [Decadal Climate Variability]... “ ” Mehta et al., 2011 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
PDO Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
There are several proxy estimates of the PDO index during the past several centuries, each developed from different sets of tree-ring data Source: Kipfmeuller et al, Geophysical Research Le!ers, 2012 and a variety of reconstruction approaches.
Dr. Kurt Kipfmueller University of Minnesota
“ ANY CONCLUSION ” THAT EXTENSIVE WILDFIRES ARE MORE OR LESS COMMON WHEN THE PDO IS IN ONE PHASE OR THE OTHER DEPENDS ENTIRELY ON THE CHOICE OF PDO RECONSTRUCTION. Kipfmueller et al., Geophysical Research Le!ers, 2012
The International Tree-Ring Database holds more than 3,200 records Pinus Picea Quercus Pseudotsuga Larix Nothofagus Austrocedris Phyllocladus Agathis Source: St. George, PAGES News, 2014 from every continent except Antarctica.
TYPE 1 ERROR
LARGE POOL OF POTENTIAL CANDIDATES SMALL NUMBER OF PREDICTORS
3Because the Northern Hemisphere ring-width network is now so large, our understanding of tree-environment relations must not be influenced by decisions to include or exclude certain records.
The International Tree-Ring Database holds more than 3,200 records Pinus Picea Quercus Pseudotsuga Larix Nothofagus Austrocedris Phyllocladus Agathis Source: St. George, PAGES News, 2014 from every continent except Antarctica.
TREE-RING RECORDS REVEAL CLIMATE HISTORY

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TREE-RING RECORDS REVEAL CLIMATE HISTORY

  • 1. SEEINGTHEFORESTFOR THETREE(RING)S An overview of tree-ring width records across the Northern Hemisphere University of North Carolina | Department of Geography | October 24, 2014
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 5.
  • 7. Large sets of ring-width data have provided the foundation for many proxy estimates of regional or global surface temperature. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, AR5, Working Group 1
  • 8. The Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas generated yearly maps of drought severity Source: Cook et al., Science, 2010 based on ring-width and other tree-ring measurements.
  • 9. Surrogate estimates of discharge have been used to produce ‘worst-case’ scenarios for water supplies in major western rivers, including the Colorado. Source: Meko et al., Geophysical Research Le!ers, 2007
  • 10.
  • 12. “IF NO RING WAS FORMED IN A GIVEN YEAR, ” THAT CREATES A FURTHER COMPLICATION, INTRODUCING AN ERROR IN THE CHRONOLOGY ESTABLISHED BY COUNTING RINGS BACK IN TIME. Dr. Michael Mann Penn State News, February 6, 2012
  • 13. “ MANY HIGH-RESOLUTION PALEOCLIMATE RECORDS, SUCH AS THOSE BASED ON TREE RINGS, ” ARE BIASED TOWARDS RECORDING CLIMATE CONDITIONS DURING THE SUMMER SEASON, THE CRITICAL PERIOD FOR PLANT GROWTH. Ersek et al., Nature Communications, 2012
  • 14. “ CONVERSELY, GROWTH RATES IN ” DROUGHT SENSITIVE TREES ARE PRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT DURING THE GROWING SEASON (I.E., SPRING AND SUMMER)… Steinman et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2012
  • 16.
  • 17. 1Despite their simplicity, the millions of observations that make up the global tree-ring network provide us with a powerful and flexible tool to study forest vigor and climate.
  • 18. 2The climate ‘filtering’ conducted by individual trees creates major regional differences in information that may be recovered from the hemispheric network.
  • 19. 3Because the Northern Hemisphere ring-width network is now so large, our understanding of tree-environment relations must not be influenced by decisions to include or exclude certain records.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22. Dr. Toby Ault Cornell University
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 31. How many tree rings can you count?
  • 33. Sarah Appleton Crater Lake, Oregon
  • 34.
  • 36. 1807 1808 1809 1811 1812 1813 Source: Sarah Appleton
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 40. The trees composing the forest rejoice and lament with its successes and failures and carry year by year something of its story in their annual rings.” “ A. E. Douglass University of Arizona
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 46. The International Tree-Ring Database holds more than 3,200 records Pinus Picea Quercus Pseudotsuga Larix Nothofagus Austrocedris Phyllocladus Agathis Source: St. George, PAGES News, 2014 from every continent except Antarctica.
  • 47.
  • 48. 1Despite their simplicity, the millions of observations that make up the global tree-ring network provide us with a powerful and flexible tool to study forest vigor and climate.
  • 50. Tree-ring display at elementary school Photograph: Tom Swetnam
  • 51. Dr. Hal Fri"s University of Arizona
  • 52. Fri"s, H.C. Growth-rings of trees: their correlation with climate. Science 154, 973-975 (1966).
  • 53. “THROUGH SEVERAL DIFFERENT STUDIES ” MY ASSOCIATES AND I HAVE ACCUMULATED MORE THAN 40 REPLICATED SAMPLES OF TREE RINGS FROM A VARIETY OF SPECIES AND SITES NEAR WEATHER STATIONS HAVING RELATIVELY LONG AND CONTINUOUS RECORDS, IN ARIZONA, COLORADO, CALIFORNIA, AND ILLINOIS. Dr. Hal Fri"s Science, 1966
  • 54. LOW-ELEVATION FORESTS IN SEMI-ARID REGIONS carry-over effects from wintertime climate HIGH-ELEVATION OR HIGH-LATITUDE FORESTS climate during the growing season
  • 55. The principles outlined by Fri"s have guided the collection of tree-ring records at thousands of locations around the planet since the 1970s. Pinus Picea Pseudotsuga Quercus Larix A C 36ºN 18ºN records records B 54ºN 72ºN 90ºN 180ºW 120ºW 60ºW 0º 60ºE 120ºE 180ºW 2000 1000 12% 6% 0º Source: St. George et al., Geophysical Research Le!ers, 2013
  • 56. -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6 +0.8 correlation coefficient (ring-width vs. local climate)
  • 57. (a) Winter precipitation WINTER PRECIPITATION Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
  • 58. Winter precipitation WINTER PRECIPITATION Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
  • 59. WINTER PRECIPITATION (a) Winter precipitation (b) Summer precipitation Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
  • 60.
  • 61.
  • 62.
  • 63. (b) Summer precipitation SUMMER PRECIPITATION Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
  • 64. (b) Summer precipitation SUMMER PRECIPITATION Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
  • 65. SUMMER PRECIPITATION (b) Summer precipitation (c) Summer temperature Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
  • 66.
  • 67. (c) Summer temperature SUMMER TEMPERATURE -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 +0.2 +0.4 +Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
  • 68. (c) Summer temperature SUMMER TEMPERATURE Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6 +0.8
  • 69. SUMMER TEMPERATURE (c) Summer temperature -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6 +0.8 Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
  • 70.
  • 71. Fri"s, H.C. Growth-rings of trees: their correlation with climate. Science 154, 973-975 (1966).
  • 72. summer temperature winter precipitation summer precipitation
  • 73. summer temperature winter precipitation summer temperature summer precipitation winter precipitation summer
  • 74. summer temperature winter precipitation summer precipitation
  • 76. Angiosperms (including Quercus) diverged from the gymnosperms at least 140 mya.
  • 77. Xiaolu (Grace) Li Cornell University
  • 78. Vaganov et al., In Dendroclimatology, 2010
  • 79. Synthetic tree-ring records generated by a forward model (and modern climate data) oW 120exhibit the same spatial pa"erns in climate response as do real trees. 60oW 0o 60oE 120oE 75oN 90oN SOIL MOISTURE : TEMPERATURE Source: LI et al., in preparation
  • 80. 2The climate ‘filtering’ conducted by individual trees creates major regional differences in information that may be recovered from the hemispheric network.
  • 81.
  • 82. Cook et al., Earth Science Reviews, 2007
  • 84. The International Tree-Ring Database holds more than 3,200 records Pinus Picea Quercus Pseudotsuga Larix Nothofagus Austrocedris Phyllocladus Agathis Source: St. George, PAGES News, 2014 from every continent except Antarctica.
  • 85. BENEFITS OF LARGE NETWORKS assign more weight to behavior exhibited by many records and tree species reduce emphasis given to unusual records that may be dominated by non-climatic noise improve the accuracy of paleoclimate reconstructions Source: Meko et al., Journal of Climate, 1993
  • 86. Climate field reconstructions can only be produced through analysis of large arrays of proxy data. Source: Wise and Dannenberg, Nature Communication, 2014
  • 87. ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation
  • 88. H H PACIFIC WARM POOL
  • 89. “El Niño-Southern Oscillation-related hydroclimatic variability in the western United States is characterized by a north– south dipole pa"ern of precipitation anomalies with opposing signs.” Source: Wise, Geophysical Research Le!ers, 2010
  • 90. EL NIÑO enhances tree growth LA NIÑA suppresses tree growth
  • 91. ENSO Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
  • 92.
  • 93.
  • 95. ... the use of high-resolution paleoclimate proxy data should be expanded because the short observational record and model uncertainty are unable to simulate [Decadal Climate Variability]... “ ” Mehta et al., 2011 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
  • 96. PDO Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
  • 97. There are several proxy estimates of the PDO index during the past several centuries, each developed from different sets of tree-ring data Source: Kipfmeuller et al, Geophysical Research Le!ers, 2012 and a variety of reconstruction approaches.
  • 98. Dr. Kurt Kipfmueller University of Minnesota
  • 99. “ ANY CONCLUSION ” THAT EXTENSIVE WILDFIRES ARE MORE OR LESS COMMON WHEN THE PDO IS IN ONE PHASE OR THE OTHER DEPENDS ENTIRELY ON THE CHOICE OF PDO RECONSTRUCTION. Kipfmueller et al., Geophysical Research Le!ers, 2012
  • 100. The International Tree-Ring Database holds more than 3,200 records Pinus Picea Quercus Pseudotsuga Larix Nothofagus Austrocedris Phyllocladus Agathis Source: St. George, PAGES News, 2014 from every continent except Antarctica.
  • 102. LARGE POOL OF POTENTIAL CANDIDATES SMALL NUMBER OF PREDICTORS
  • 103. 3Because the Northern Hemisphere ring-width network is now so large, our understanding of tree-environment relations must not be influenced by decisions to include or exclude certain records.
  • 104.
  • 105.
  • 106.
  • 107.
  • 108. The International Tree-Ring Database holds more than 3,200 records Pinus Picea Quercus Pseudotsuga Larix Nothofagus Austrocedris Phyllocladus Agathis Source: St. George, PAGES News, 2014 from every continent except Antarctica.