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Prairie megadroughts: drought, proxies and decadal climate variability in the western Canadian interior

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    Prairie megadroughts: drought, proxies and decadal climate variability in the western Canadian interior - Presentation Transcript

    1. PRAIRIE MEGADROUGHTS water, proxies and decadal climate variability in the western Canadian interior scott st. george geological survey of canada
    2. Photo: NASA’s Earth Observatory
    3. Renewable water resources, by country Brazil Russia Canada USA China India Columbia Peru Zaire 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 km3/y Source: Shiklomanov and Rodda, 2003
    4. Photo: NASA’s Earth Observatory
    5. Calgary
    6. Photo: Haley Catton
    7. Winnipeg
    8. Photo: Manitoba Hydro
    9. Net income, Manitoba Hydro 3 2 0 constant 2009 SEK (billions) -2 -3 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: Annual reports of the Manitoba Hydro-Electric Board
    10. AP Photo/U.S. Coast Guard, Lt. Brendan Evans
    11. Past dynamics ➜ Future behavior PRESENT PAST FUTURE Precipitation Drought risks Discharge Sustainable yield Lake level Flood hazards Soil moisture
    12. DECADAL VARIABILITY AND PRAIRIE WATER How important is decadal-to-multidecadal variability to the 1 hydroclimate of western Canada and North America?
    13. DECADAL VARIABILITY AND PRAIRIE WATER How important is decadal-to-multidecadal variability to the 1 hydroclimate of western Canada and North America? PRAIRIE DROUGHTS SINCE AD 1500 What tree rings tell us about severity, persistance and 2 dynamics of past droughts on the Prairies.
    14. D E CA D AL CLIMAT E VA R I A B I L I T Y
    15. PDO NEGATIVE AMO NEGATIVE PDO NEGATIVE AMO POSITIVE McCabe et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2004
    16. Where is decadal variability strong? in precipitation
    17. Noise Interannual Trend Multidecadal Decadal
    18. Normalized variance 10 60°N 8 50°N 6 40°N 4 30°N 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 Period (years) Ault and St. George, Journal of Climate, in submission
    19. The PDO fingerprint on winter precipitation -0.6 correlation Ault and St. George, Journal of Climate, in submission
    20. Winter precipitation - decadal band 0% 10% 20% 30% variance
    21. Northern California winter precipitation Decadal variance = ~30 percent
    22. Northern California Ault and St. George, Journal of Climate, in submission
    23. Levee break, Sacramento River Photo: California Department of Water Resources
    24. Northern California Ault and St. George, Journal of Climate, in submission
    25. D2M in the ENSO-PDO ‘null’ -0.6 correlation Ault and St. George, Journal of Climate, in submission
    26. Photo: NASA’s Earth Observatory
    27. CLIMATE HISTORY OF CANADA Younger Demise of Laurentide Dryas Ice Sheet 20 16 12 8 4 0 THOUSANDS OF YEARS AGO Final Drainage of Lake Agassiz LAST GLACIAL MODERN MAXIMUM OBSERVATIONS
    28. D R OUGHT FROM P R A IR IE T R EES
    29. MEGADROUGHT intensity at least equivalent to modern multiyear droughts duration longer than the several years to decade thereof Seager et al., Journal of Climate, 2008
    30. Martin-Philippe Girardin Canadian Forest Service Greg Pederson United States Geological Survey David Sauchyn Glen MacDonald Emma Watson UCLA University of Regina Environment Canada Erik Nielsen Jacques Tardif Manitoba Geological Survey University of Winnipeg
    31. Photo: Emma Watson
    32. Photo: Greg Brooks
    33. 2008
    34. 1875
    35. Photo: Erik Nielsen
    36. Photo: Erik Nielsen
    37. 49 Photo: Erik Nielsen
    38. Prairie tree-ring network
    39. Palmer Drought Severity Index
    40. 52
    41. Calgary
    42. southern Alberta 10 3 2 5 1 Ringwidth PDSI 0 0 -1 -5 -2 -3 -10 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year (A.D.) St. George et al., Journal of Climate, 2009
    43. southern Alberta 10 3 2 5 1 Ringwidth PDSI 0 0 -1 -5 r = 0.62 -2 -3 -10 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year (A.D.) St. George et al., Journal of Climate, 2009
    44. Drought history - western Prairies PDSI 6 4 observations 2 0 -2 tree rings -4 -6 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Year (AD) St. George et al., Journal of Climate, 2009
    45. MEGADROUGHT intensity at least equivalent to modern multiyear droughts duration longer than the several years to decade thereof Seager et al., Journal of Climate, 2008
    46. 58 oN 1718 - 1722 56 oN 54 oN 52 oN 50 oN 48 oN oW 90 114 oW oW 96 o o 108 W 102 W Ringwidth anomaly (deviations) −2 −1 0 1 2 -2 0 +2
    47. 1842 to 1876 Below average Above average
    48. Photo: Stephen Wolfe
    49. Winnipeg
    50. Drought history - eastern Prairies PDSI 4 observations 2 0 -2 tree rings -4 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Year (AD) St. George et al., Journal of Climate, 2009
    51. 1680-1720
    52. Lake Mina
    53. Lake Mina, Minnesota Pollen-inferred 4 effective moisture (cm) 2 0 -2 -4 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 Year (AD) St. Jacques et al., Quaternary Science Reviews, 2008
    54. 1997 Red River flood Photo: Greg Brooks
    55. no response flood signatures 1 - 2 metres
    56. Flood damaged Normal growth 68 Photo: Suzana Radivojevic
    57. 350 years of Red River floods St. George and Nielsen, The Holocene, 2003
    58. Winnipeg population: 680,000 River diversion Main channel Photo: Greg Brooks
    59. Prairie tree-ring network
    60. WORLD DATA CENTER for PALEOCLIMATOLOGY
    61. “ This must be voodoo.” Anonymous water manager
    62. davidstahle edwardcook malcolmcleveland matttherrel davidmeko henrigrissino-mayer emmawatson brianluckman Tree-ring data document 16th century megadrought over North America EOS 81, p121, 2000
    63. davidstahle edwardcook malcolmcleveland matttherrel davidmeko henrigrissino-mayer emmawatson brianluckman Tree-ring data document 16th century megadrought over North America but not Canada EOS 81, p121, 2000
    64. 100% MORE CERTAIN Woodhouse et al., 2006 Meko et al., 2001 80% Upper Colorado River Sacramento River Meko et al., 2007 Colorado River Woodhouse, 2007 Middle Boulder Creek 60% Case and MacDonald, 2003 explained Saskatchewan River Beriault and Sauchyn, 2006 Churchill River Bonin and Burn, 2005 variance Athabasca River 40% Gedalof et al., 2007 Watson and Luckman, 2005 Columbia River Bow River 20% LESS CERTAIN 0% Canada USA
    65. seasonality
    66. Medicine Hat, Alberta 25 80 20 15 60 Precipitation mm) Temperature (°C) 10 5 40 0 -5 20 -10 0 -15 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Source: Environment Canada, Adjusted Historical Canadian Climate Data, 1895 – 2006
    67. St. George et al., unpublished results
    68. 83
    69. INSTRUMENTAL PDSI ENSO +0.5 0 correlation coefficient -0.5
    70. HIGH spatial coherence STRONG connections to remote forcings GOOD hydrological proxy
    71. LOW spatial coherence MODEST connections to remote forcings POOR hydrological proxy
    72. 87
    73. e iv t a rn te l worst-case scenarios a
    74. FU T U R E D I RE C T ION S
    75. Experimental snowpack reconstruction Canadian Rockies St. George, unpublished results
    76. Winter precipitation - decadal band 0% 10% 20% 30% variance
    77. RANDOM INPUT after Klemeš, Drought prediction: a hydrological perspective, 2000
    78. RANDOM INPUT STORAGE after Klemeš, Drought prediction: a hydrological perspective, 2000
    79. RANDOM INPUT STORAGE ‘REDDENED’ OUTPUT after Klemeš, Drought prediction: a hydrological perspective, 2000
    80. RANDOM INPUT STORAGE ‘REDDENED’ OUTPUT POTENTIAL CLIMATE FORCINGS? after Klemeš, Drought prediction: a hydrological perspective, 2000
    81. Ault, unpublished results Variance lake records instrumental PDSI tree-ring PDSI precipitation Frequency (yrs)
    82. CLIMATE direct HYDROLOGY
    83. CLIMATE direct direct PROXIES HYDROLOGY
    84. CLIMATE direct direct PROXIES HYDROLOGY indirect
    85. HYDROLOGY
    86. Lake Winnipeg and its watershed
    87. Photo: Erik Nielsen
    88. web.mac.com/scottstgeorge

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