GEOG5839.21, The Colorado River

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GEOG5839.21, The Colorado River

  1. 1. November 20Drought and dendrohydrology
  2. 2. WHAT ISDROUGHT?
  3. 3. A drought refers to an extended period of time when a regionreceives substantially less moisture than it does in most years.
  4. 4. METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHTSource: Chazz Layne
  5. 5. HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHTSource: David Sauchyn
  6. 6. AGRICULTURAL DROUGHTSource: library_chic
  7. 7. This past summer, the central and western USexperienced the worst drought in two decades.
  8. 8. Corn stalk destroyed by severe drought near Round Rock, Texas.Jay Janner
  9. 9. Despite the increase in productivity, you still can’t grow corn without water. bushels of corn per acre 2002 1993 1980 (flood year) 1983 1988Source: USDA
  10. 10. The Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant in Monticello, Minnesotashekleton
  11. 11. The mighty Mississippi in 1988
  12. 12. In the 1940s, Tucson was a small city with less than 40,000 residents.
  13. 13. Nearly 1 million people now live in the Greater Tucson Metropolitan Area.
  14. 14. Photograph: Nevada Tourism Media Relations
  15. 15. The Central Arizona Project is a 336-mile canal that diverts water from the Colorado Riverinto central and southern Arizona.
  16. 16. Source: Chazz Lane
  17. 17. Water transfers in the American southwest Courtesy Glen MacDonald
  18. 18. Photograph: Ben Amstutz
  19. 19. Photograph: Ben Amstutz
  20. 20. Photograph: Michael Koukoullis
  21. 21. THE COLORADO RIVER COMPACT divides water from the Colorado River among seven western states.
  22. 22. Observed discharge, Colorado River Compact allocation (16.5 MAF)
  23. 23. Low reservoirPhotograph: Glen MacDonald
  24. 24. “ We’ve never had to worry about our water resources. Our children will not enjoy that luxury. Patricia Mulroy Southern Nevada Water Authority ”
  25. 25. Observed discharge, Colorado River Compact allocation (16.5 MAF)
  26. 26. READINGDavid Meko and Connie Woodhouse (2010), Application ofstreamflow reconstruction to water resources management.M.K. Hughes et al. (eds.), Dendroclimatology, Developments inPaleoenvironmental Research.
  27. 27. 1How have tree rings been used to understandthe hydrology of the Colorado River? 2 More generally, what do tree rings have to say about drought across North America?
  28. 28. TRACING THE COLORADO
  29. 29. The history of precipitation andrunoff in the Colorado Basin asindicated by tree-ringsEdmund ShulmanPh.D. ThesisHarvard University1944
  30. 30. “The growth of trees is undoubtably controlled more bythe movement of water than by the movement of anyother single substance.” Hal Fri s Tree Rings and Climate
  31. 31. water stressnarrow ring reduced photosynthesis less cell expansion reduced cell division
  32. 32. INDIRECTRELATION
  33. 33. READINGDavid Meko and Connie Woodhouse (2010), Application ofstreamflow reconstruction to water resources management.M.K. Hughes et al. (eds.), Dendroclimatology, Developments inPaleoenvironmental Research.
  34. 34. Connie Woodhouse University of Arizona
  35. 35. Source: Woodhouse et al., 2006
  36. 36. stream gauge tree-ring estimateSource: Woodhouse et al., 2006
  37. 37. Source: Woodhouse et al., 2006
  38. 38. “ Average reconstructed annual flow for the period 1844–1848 was lower than the observed flow for 1999–2004. ” Connie Woodhouse et al. Water Resources Research, 2006
  39. 39. “ The long-term perspective provided by tree ring reconstructions points to looming conflict between water demand and supply in ” the upper Colorado River basin. Connie Woodhouse et al. Water Resources Research, 2006
  40. 40. MEGADROUGHT intensity at least equivalent to modern multiyear droughts duration longer than the several years to decade thereofSeager et al., Journal of Climate, 2008
  41. 41. Dave Meko University of Arizona
  42. 42. Relic tree, circa 323 BC Harmon Canyon, Utah
  43. 43. 1,200 years of Colorado River discharge Meko et al., GRL, 2007
  44. 44. THE COLORADO RIVER COMPACT divides water from the Colorado River among seven western states.
  45. 45. Tree rings provided the central evidence that caused municipal water agencies to“RETHINK OLDASSUMPTIONS” about worst-case scenarios for reservoir operations and re-evaluate the potential duration and geographic scope of severe drought.
  46. 46. GLOBAL DROUGHT FROM TREES
  47. 47. Terry Hash planted 800 acres of co on, corn, wheat and sorghum. Almost all of it was destroyed by the 2011 Texas drought.Jay Janner
  48. 48. Palmer Drought Severity Index The PDSI incorporates historical records of precipitation and temperature into a water-balance model to estimate the amount of water available in the soil relative toaverage conditions and is typically produced once a month.
  49. 49. +4 extreme wet -4 extreme drought (compared to ‘average’ for that place)
  50. 50. How much water is in this soil?
  51. 51. One hundred years of drought history around Minneapolis-St. PaulSource: North American Drought Atlas
  52. 52. Ed Cook Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
  53. 53. Drought grid (blue dots) Cook et al., JQS, 2010
  54. 54. Average PDSI, AD 1580 to 1600
  55. 55. HOW DO WE KNOWTHIS WORKS?
  56. 56. Dalhart, TX, 1938
  57. 57. Tree ringSource: David Stahle
  58. 58. June 1833 All-time record flooding on the Arkansas, Canadian, and Verdigris Rivers in Oklahoma. 950 displaced Creek and Seminole drown on floodplain farmsteads.Source: David Stahle
  59. 59. Source: David Stahle
  60. 60. How has the extent of severedrought changed through time?
  61. 61. Observed (blue) and tree-ring (red) PDSI in ‘The West’
  62. 62. A 1,000 years of drought in the West Cook et al., Science, 2004
  63. 63. Can the Drought Atlas help us placehistorical events within a context of long-term environmental change?
  64. 64. Square Tower House Great Pueblo Drought Mesa Verde, Colorado A.E. Douglass (1929)Source: David Stahle
  65. 65. North American Drought Atlas h p://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/paleo/pd08plot.pl
  66. 66. Source: Ingmar Zahorsky
  67. 67. “ Much of the world’s population lives in monsoon Asia and depends on monsoon rainfall for water and agricultural fertility. ” Wahl and Morrill Science, 2010
  68. 68. Average spatial pa erns of precipitation and wind during summerE R Wahl, C Morrill Science 2010;328:437-438
  69. 69. MONSOON ASIA DROUGHT ATLASh p://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/cook2010/cook2010.html
  70. 70. Tree rings show extent of ‘Great Drought’, 1876-1878E R Cook et al. Science 2010;328:486-489
  71. 71. “ The tree-ring record shows that droughts lasting decades have routinely gripped western North America. ” Jonathan Overpeck and Bradley Udall
  72. 72. GEOG5839 XT C L AS SNE

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