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GEOG3839.15, The North American Drought Atlas

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  • 1. READING FOR THURSDAYDavid Meko and Connie Woodhouse (2010), Application ofstreamflow reconstruction to water resources management.M.K. Hughes et al. (eds.), Dendroclimatology, Developments inPaleoenvironmental Research.
  • 2. QUESTIONWhat was Denver Water’s key concernregarding its water supply?
  • 3. QUESTIONWhat specific test did Denver Water use toassess whether or not tree rings wereskillful estimators of river flow?
  • 4. h p://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/tree-ring-laboratory/
  • 5. Ed Cook Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
  • 6. Observed discharge, Colorado River Compact allocation (16.5 MAF)
  • 7. Low reservoirPhotograph: Glen MacDonald
  • 8. “ [The early 21st century drought] highlights both the extreme vulnerability of the semi-arid western United States to precipitation deficits and the need to be er understand long-term drought variability ” and its causes in North America. Cook et al., 2004
  • 9. “ To this end, we have used centuries-long, annually resolved tree-ring records to reconstruct annual changes in both drought and wetness over large ” portions of North America. Cook et al., 2004
  • 10. THE NORTH AMERICAN DROUGHT ATLAS
  • 11. Tree-ring chronologies (red dots) Cook et al., JQS, 2010
  • 12. Palmer Drought Severity Index The PDSI incorporates historical records of precipitation and temperature into a water-balance model to estimate the amount of water available in the soil relative toaverage conditions and is typically produced once a month.
  • 13. +4 extreme wet -4 extreme drought (compared to ‘average’ for that place)
  • 14. One hundred years of drought history around Minneapolis-St. PaulSource: North American Drought Atlas
  • 15. Drought grid (blue dots) Cook et al., JQS, 2010
  • 16. Network reconstruction
  • 17. Drought grid (blue dots) Cook et al., JQS, 2010
  • 18. Source: Woodhouse et al., 2006
  • 19. Average PDSI, AD 1580 to 1600
  • 20. HOW DO WE KNOWTHIS WORKS?
  • 21. empirical comparisons
  • 22. Dalhart, TX, 1938
  • 23. Source: David Stahle
  • 24. Tree ringSource: David Stahle
  • 25. June 1833 All-time record flooding on the Arkansas, Canadian, and Verdigris Rivers in Oklahoma. 950 displaced Creek and Seminole drown on floodplain farmsteads.Source: David Stahle
  • 26. Source: David Stahle
  • 27. Tree-ring records through time Cook et al., Science, 2004
  • 28. Quality of PDSI estimates from tree rings Cook et al., JQS, 2010
  • 29. WHY RECONSTRUCT THE PDSI?
  • 30. Source: David Stahle
  • 31. Seasonal precipitation ‘bias’ of NADASt. George et al., The Holocene, 2010
  • 32. APPLICATIONS
  • 33. Cook et al., 2007, Earth Science Reviews
  • 34. How has the extent of severedrought changed through time?
  • 35. Observed (blue) and tree-ring (red) PDSI in ‘The West’
  • 36. A 1,000 years of drought in the West Cook et al., Science, 2004
  • 37. How do other aspects of the climate system influence thefrequency or severity of drought?
  • 38. EL NIÑ0SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
  • 39. Source: St. George et al., 2010
  • 40. Can the Drought Atlas help us placehistorical events within a context of long-term environmental change?
  • 41. Square Tower House Mesa Verde, ColoradoSource: David Stahle
  • 42. Square Tower House Great Pueblo Drought Mesa Verde, Colorado A.E. Douglass (1929)Source: David Stahle
  • 43. North American Drought Atlas h p://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/paleo/pd08plot.pl
  • 44. Source: Ingmar Zahorsky
  • 45. “ Much of the world’s population lives in monsoon Asia and depends on monsoon rainfall for water ” and agricultural fertility. Wahl and Morrill, 2010
  • 46. Average spatial pa erns of precipitation and wind during summerE R Wahl, C Morrill Science 2010;328:437-438
  • 47. MONSOON ASIA DROUGHT ATLASh p://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/cook2010/cook2010.html
  • 48. Photograph: Kevin Anchukaitis
  • 49. Tree-ring records across Monsoon AsiaE R Cook et al. Science 2010;328:486-489
  • 50. Tree rings show extent of ‘Great Drought’, 1876-1878E R Cook et al. Science 2010;328:486-489
  • 51. Was the ‘Great Drought’ caused by ENSO or the North Pacific Ocean?E R Cook et al. Science 2010;328:486-489
  • 52. “ The MADA is a crucial step forward for paleoclimate studies in a region that is of great social and climatological interest, but where the development of tree-ring archives faces immense challenges and ” instrumental data coverage is limited. Wahl and Morrill, 2010
  • 53. READINGEugene Wahl and Carrie Morrill (2010), Towardunderstanding and predicting monsoon pa erns.Science 328, 437-438.
  • 54. GRADUATE STUDENT READINGBüntgen et al. (2011), 2500 years of European climatevariability and human susceptibility. Science 331, 578-582.