GEOG3839.13, Global temperature reconstructions

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  • 1. Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
  • 2. Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
  • 3. Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
  • 4. a.k.a. Empirical Orthogonal Function analysisPRINCIPLE COMPONENTS ANALYSIS
  • 5. PC1 (group 1) PC3 (group 3) PC2 (group 2)
  • 6. Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
  • 7. Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
  • 8. most sitesSource: St. George and Luckman, 2001
  • 9. most sites farthest northSource: St. George and Luckman, 2001
  • 10. most sites farthest north unusual siteSource: St. George and Luckman, 2001
  • 11. LINEARREGRESSION
  • 12. yt = axt + b + ε
  • 13. Tjj = 0.23PC1 + -0.23PC3t+1 + 0.16PC2t+1 + -0.09PC1t+1 + -0.46
  • 14. Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
  • 15. “ Tree-ring-derived records have played a prominent role in a empts to establish how climate has varied ” in the recent past. — Jones et al., The Holocene, 2009
  • 16. G L O B A L T E M P E R AT U R E R E C O N S T R U C T I O N SPhotograph: Marianna
  • 17. Long, temperature-sensitive tree-ring records have been used to estimate average temperatures across the entire hemisphere or globe.Source: Esper et al., Science, 2002
  • 18. Source: Esper et al., Science, 2002
  • 19. Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2006
  • 20. Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2006
  • 21. Source: Osborne and Briffa, 2006
  • 22. “ ...this study provides evidence for intervals of significant warmth in the [Northern Hemisphere] within the so-called Medieval Warm Period and for significantly colder intervals during the so-called ” Li le Ice Age period. — Osborne and Briffa, 2006
  • 23. LINEARREGRESSION
  • 24. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
  • 25. Photograph: Mark Anbinder
  • 26. “ Tree-rings also allow the reconstruction of large-scale regional or global temperature pa erns defined by large networks of chronologies. ”— Brian Luckman
  • 27. Source: Briffa et al., Global and Planetary Change, 2004
  • 28. h p://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/temmaps/
  • 29. 1883“THE LOUDEST SOUND IN MODERN HISTORY”
  • 30. Krakatau, Indonesia 1883
  • 31. h p://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/temmaps/
  • 32. 1816THE “YEAR WITHOUT A SUMMER”
  • 33. Mount Tambora, Indonesia Its eruption in 1815 was the most explosive since AD 180
  • 34. Source: Briffa et al., Global and Biological Change, 2004
  • 35. h p://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/temmaps/
  • 36. Huaynaputina Peru
  • 37. “Trees are not thermometers or rain gagues.” Keith Briffa and colleagues
  • 38. THEDIVERGENCE PROBLEM
  • 39. the ‘divergence problem’ is defined as the tendency for tree growth at some previously temperature-limited northern sites to demonstrate a weakening in mean temperature response in recent decades.Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2008
  • 40. Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2008
  • 41. “ It is important to stress that not all high-latitude regions display this apparent decoupling between observed and dendroclimatically estimated temperatures. ” — Jones et al., The Holocene, 2009
  • 42. Source: Briffa et al., Global and Biological Change, 2004
  • 43. Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2008
  • 44. SURFACE TEMPERATURERECONSTRUCTIONSFOR T H E LAS T 2 , 00 0 Y E A R S NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES