0
The frequency, severity and causes
       of extreme droughts in the
             Winnipeg River basin


                 ...
2003
geosciences
EARTH SCIENCES RANKINGS
       1. California Institute of Technology
       2. Massachusetts Institute of Technology
     ...
2008
The frequency, severity and causes
       of extreme droughts in the
             Winnipeg River basin


                 ...
FU N DI N G A GE NCI ES

                 Manitoba Hydro
           Manitoba Geological Survey
            Natural Resourc...
WINNIPEG RIVER STREAMFLOW
South Saskatchewan River at Saskatoon



relative change
in summer flow




Schindler and Donahue, 2006, PNAS
LOW                     HIGH




                                 HIGH    LOW




St. George, 2007, Journal of Hydrology
trends
Annual discharge since 1924
Annual discharge since 1924

+ 58%
                                        NO TREND
         + 52%




                   ...
“
For monthly and annual
average flow based on
adjusted disaggregated flow
data, upward trends are
detected for the entire p...
Winnipeg River
                 ≠   Saskatchewan River


                     Western Hudson Bay


                      C...
1892
what happened
before that?
paleoclimatology
 the study of the Earth’s climate prior to the
 period of instrumental measurements
R ECO R D S F RO M ANCIEN T TR EES
never trust
   one tree
975
 trees
286,420
    tree rings
Photograph courtesy Kurt Kipfmueller
1783
755 m3/s

847 m3/s

809 m3/s

770 m3/s

823 m3/s

787 m3/s

901 m3/s
     3
TREE R I N G S A N D P R A IRI E DRO UG HT
Martin-Philippe Girardin
            Canadian Forest Service


                                                         Gr...
2,860
   trees
Prairie tree-ring network
755 m3/s

847 m3/s

809 m3/s

770 m3/s

823 m3/s

787 m3/s

901 m3/s
     3
CLIMATE




    direct




             HYDROLOGY
CLIMATE




          direct       direct




PROXIES                         HYDROLOGY
CLIMATE




          direct                  direct




PROXIES                                    HYDROLOGY
            ...
“ This
  must
   be
 voodoo. ”
Anonymous water
    manager
How  good      are
drought records from
     tree rings?
geography matters
Prairie tree-ring network
Palmer
Drought
Severity
Index
10                               southern Alberta                            3

                                          ...
10                               southern Alberta                               3

                                       ...
northwestern Ontario                                    3
       6
                                                       ...
755 m3/s

847 m3/s

809 m3/s

770 m3/s

823 m3/s

787 m3/s

901 m3/s
     3
How bad   has
drought been?
‘Now’ ‘Then’
(AD 1900 - present)   (AD 1500 - 1900)
1783
How bad   has
drought been?
1910
1720s
How bad   has
drought been?
more persistent
more severe                  eds
                      ter sh
              me wa
        in so
73
74
P R O D U C T S AND APPLICATIONS
data
WORLD
D ATA C E N T E R f o r
PA L E O C L I M AT O L O G Y
Publications
Scott St. George
Streamflow in the Winnipeg
River basin, Canada: trends,
extremes and climate linkages
Journal of Hydrology...
Scott St. George, Dave Meko and Mike Evans
Regional tree growth and
inferred summer climate in
the Winnipeg River basin,
C...
Scott St. George, Dave Meko, Martin Girardin, Erik
Nielsen, Greg Pederson, Dave Sauchyn, Jac Tardif,
and Emma Watson
The t...
does the past
 really matter?
3
main
applications
climate change

YOU CAN TOUCH
BENCHMARKS
  for recent events and trends
starting points for
‘paleo’ scenarios
                      91
VIC BAKER
UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
“ HAPPEN AGAIN
Common sense holds that what has really happened


CAN

                             VIC BAKER
            ...
F U TURE DI REC TION S
Prairie tree-ring network
northwestern Ontario                                    3
       6
                                                       ...
Can we do
better ?
drought
          f   ring width
drought
          f     ring width


              ring chemistry
drought
          f     ring width


              ring chemistry


               ring density
CLIMATE




          direct                  direct




PROXIES                                    HYDROLOGY
            ...
HYDROLOGY
?
  climate change
geological
The frequency, severity and causes
       of extreme droughts in the
             Winnipeg River basin


                 ...
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro
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Transcript of "Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro"

  1. 1. The frequency, severity and causes of extreme droughts in the Winnipeg River basin Scott St. George Geological Survey of Canada
  2. 2. 2003
  3. 3. geosciences
  4. 4. EARTH SCIENCES RANKINGS 1. California Institute of Technology 2. Massachusetts Institute of Technology 3. Stanford University 4. University of California - Berkeley 5. Columbia University 6. University of Michigan 7. Pennsylvania State University 8. University of Arizona 9. Harvard University 10. University of Texas - Austin US News and World Report, 2006
  5. 5. 2008
  6. 6. The frequency, severity and causes of extreme droughts in the Winnipeg River basin Scott St. George Geological Survey of Canada
  7. 7. FU N DI N G A GE NCI ES Manitoba Hydro Manitoba Geological Survey Natural Resources Canada National Science and Engineering Council of Canada Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative
  8. 8. WINNIPEG RIVER STREAMFLOW
  9. 9. South Saskatchewan River at Saskatoon relative change in summer flow Schindler and Donahue, 2006, PNAS
  10. 10. LOW HIGH HIGH LOW St. George, 2007, Journal of Hydrology
  11. 11. trends
  12. 12. Annual discharge since 1924
  13. 13. Annual discharge since 1924 + 58% NO TREND + 52% + 46% NO TREND NO TREND NO TREND NO TREND
  14. 14. “ For monthly and annual average flow based on adjusted disaggregated flow data, upward trends are detected for the entire period from 1912 to 2006. Liu, 2007
  15. 15. Winnipeg River ≠ Saskatchewan River Western Hudson Bay Canadian Prairies
  16. 16. 1892
  17. 17. what happened before that?
  18. 18. paleoclimatology the study of the Earth’s climate prior to the period of instrumental measurements
  19. 19. R ECO R D S F RO M ANCIEN T TR EES
  20. 20. never trust one tree
  21. 21. 975 trees
  22. 22. 286,420 tree rings
  23. 23. Photograph courtesy Kurt Kipfmueller
  24. 24. 1783
  25. 25. 755 m3/s 847 m3/s 809 m3/s 770 m3/s 823 m3/s 787 m3/s 901 m3/s 3
  26. 26. TREE R I N G S A N D P R A IRI E DRO UG HT
  27. 27. Martin-Philippe Girardin Canadian Forest Service Greg Pederson United States Geological Survey Glen MacDonald David Sauchyn Emma Watson UCLA University of Regina Environment Canada Erik Nielsen Jacques Tardif Manitoba Geological Survey University of Winnipeg
  28. 28. 2,860 trees
  29. 29. Prairie tree-ring network
  30. 30. 755 m3/s 847 m3/s 809 m3/s 770 m3/s 823 m3/s 787 m3/s 901 m3/s 3
  31. 31. CLIMATE direct HYDROLOGY
  32. 32. CLIMATE direct direct PROXIES HYDROLOGY
  33. 33. CLIMATE direct direct PROXIES HYDROLOGY indirect
  34. 34. “ This must be voodoo. ” Anonymous water manager
  35. 35. How good are drought records from tree rings?
  36. 36. geography matters
  37. 37. Prairie tree-ring network
  38. 38. Palmer Drought Severity Index
  39. 39. 10 southern Alberta 3 2 5 1 Ringwidth PDSI 0 0 -1 -5 -2 -3 -10 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 St. George et al., (accepted), Journal of Climate Year (A.D.)
  40. 40. 10 southern Alberta 3 2 5 1 Ringwidth PDSI 0 0 -1 -5 r = 0.62 -2 -3 -10 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 St. George et al., (accepted), Journal of Climate Year (A.D.)
  41. 41. northwestern Ontario 3 6 2 4 1 Ringwidth 2 PDSI 0 0 -2 -1 -4 r = 0.40 -2 -6 -3 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 St. George et al., (accepted), Journal of Climate Year (A.D.) 59
  42. 42. 755 m3/s 847 m3/s 809 m3/s 770 m3/s 823 m3/s 787 m3/s 901 m3/s 3
  43. 43. How bad has drought been?
  44. 44. ‘Now’ ‘Then’ (AD 1900 - present) (AD 1500 - 1900)
  45. 45. 1783
  46. 46. How bad has drought been?
  47. 47. 1910
  48. 48. 1720s
  49. 49. How bad has drought been?
  50. 50. more persistent more severe eds ter sh me wa in so
  51. 51. 73
  52. 52. 74
  53. 53. P R O D U C T S AND APPLICATIONS
  54. 54. data
  55. 55. WORLD D ATA C E N T E R f o r PA L E O C L I M AT O L O G Y
  56. 56. Publications
  57. 57. Scott St. George Streamflow in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada: trends, extremes and climate linkages Journal of Hydrology 332, 396-411, 2007
  58. 58. Scott St. George, Dave Meko and Mike Evans Regional tree growth and inferred summer climate in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada since AD 1783 Quaternary Research 70, 158-172, 2008
  59. 59. Scott St. George, Dave Meko, Martin Girardin, Erik Nielsen, Greg Pederson, Dave Sauchyn, Jac Tardif, and Emma Watson The tree-ring record of summer drought in the Canadian Prairies Journal of Climate, in press
  60. 60. does the past really matter?
  61. 61. 3 main applications
  62. 62. climate change YOU CAN TOUCH
  63. 63. BENCHMARKS for recent events and trends
  64. 64. starting points for ‘paleo’ scenarios 91
  65. 65. VIC BAKER UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
  66. 66. “ HAPPEN AGAIN Common sense holds that what has really happened CAN VIC BAKER UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
  67. 67. F U TURE DI REC TION S
  68. 68. Prairie tree-ring network
  69. 69. northwestern Ontario 3 6 2 4 1 Ringwidth 2 PDSI 0 0 -2 -1 -4 r = 0.40 -2 -6 -3 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 St. George et al., (accepted), Journal of Climate Year (A.D.) 95
  70. 70. Can we do better ?
  71. 71. drought f ring width
  72. 72. drought f ring width ring chemistry
  73. 73. drought f ring width ring chemistry ring density
  74. 74. CLIMATE direct direct PROXIES HYDROLOGY indirect
  75. 75. HYDROLOGY
  76. 76. ? climate change geological
  77. 77. The frequency, severity and causes of extreme droughts in the Winnipeg River basin Scott St. George Geological Survey of Canada
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