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    Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro Final presentation to Manitoba Hydro Presentation Transcript

    • The frequency, severity and causes of extreme droughts in the Winnipeg River basin Scott St. George Geological Survey of Canada
    • 2003
    • geosciences
    • EARTH SCIENCES RANKINGS 1. California Institute of Technology 2. Massachusetts Institute of Technology 3. Stanford University 4. University of California - Berkeley 5. Columbia University 6. University of Michigan 7. Pennsylvania State University 8. University of Arizona 9. Harvard University 10. University of Texas - Austin US News and World Report, 2006
    • 2008
    • The frequency, severity and causes of extreme droughts in the Winnipeg River basin Scott St. George Geological Survey of Canada
    • FU N DI N G A GE NCI ES Manitoba Hydro Manitoba Geological Survey Natural Resources Canada National Science and Engineering Council of Canada Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative
    • WINNIPEG RIVER STREAMFLOW
    • South Saskatchewan River at Saskatoon relative change in summer flow Schindler and Donahue, 2006, PNAS
    • LOW HIGH HIGH LOW St. George, 2007, Journal of Hydrology
    • trends
    • Annual discharge since 1924
    • Annual discharge since 1924 + 58% NO TREND + 52% + 46% NO TREND NO TREND NO TREND NO TREND
    • “ For monthly and annual average flow based on adjusted disaggregated flow data, upward trends are detected for the entire period from 1912 to 2006. Liu, 2007
    • Winnipeg River ≠ Saskatchewan River Western Hudson Bay Canadian Prairies
    • 1892
    • what happened before that?
    • paleoclimatology the study of the Earth’s climate prior to the period of instrumental measurements
    • R ECO R D S F RO M ANCIEN T TR EES
    • never trust one tree
    • 975 trees
    • 286,420 tree rings
    • Photograph courtesy Kurt Kipfmueller
    • 1783
    • 755 m3/s 847 m3/s 809 m3/s 770 m3/s 823 m3/s 787 m3/s 901 m3/s 3
    • TREE R I N G S A N D P R A IRI E DRO UG HT
    • Martin-Philippe Girardin Canadian Forest Service Greg Pederson United States Geological Survey Glen MacDonald David Sauchyn Emma Watson UCLA University of Regina Environment Canada Erik Nielsen Jacques Tardif Manitoba Geological Survey University of Winnipeg
    • 2,860 trees
    • Prairie tree-ring network
    • 755 m3/s 847 m3/s 809 m3/s 770 m3/s 823 m3/s 787 m3/s 901 m3/s 3
    • CLIMATE direct HYDROLOGY
    • CLIMATE direct direct PROXIES HYDROLOGY
    • CLIMATE direct direct PROXIES HYDROLOGY indirect
    • “ This must be voodoo. ” Anonymous water manager
    • How good are drought records from tree rings?
    • geography matters
    • Prairie tree-ring network
    • Palmer Drought Severity Index
    • 10 southern Alberta 3 2 5 1 Ringwidth PDSI 0 0 -1 -5 -2 -3 -10 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 St. George et al., (accepted), Journal of Climate Year (A.D.)
    • 10 southern Alberta 3 2 5 1 Ringwidth PDSI 0 0 -1 -5 r = 0.62 -2 -3 -10 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 St. George et al., (accepted), Journal of Climate Year (A.D.)
    • northwestern Ontario 3 6 2 4 1 Ringwidth 2 PDSI 0 0 -2 -1 -4 r = 0.40 -2 -6 -3 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 St. George et al., (accepted), Journal of Climate Year (A.D.) 59
    • 755 m3/s 847 m3/s 809 m3/s 770 m3/s 823 m3/s 787 m3/s 901 m3/s 3
    • How bad has drought been?
    • ‘Now’ ‘Then’ (AD 1900 - present) (AD 1500 - 1900)
    • 1783
    • How bad has drought been?
    • 1910
    • 1720s
    • How bad has drought been?
    • more persistent more severe eds ter sh me wa in so
    • 73
    • 74
    • P R O D U C T S AND APPLICATIONS
    • data
    • WORLD D ATA C E N T E R f o r PA L E O C L I M AT O L O G Y
    • Publications
    • Scott St. George Streamflow in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada: trends, extremes and climate linkages Journal of Hydrology 332, 396-411, 2007
    • Scott St. George, Dave Meko and Mike Evans Regional tree growth and inferred summer climate in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada since AD 1783 Quaternary Research 70, 158-172, 2008
    • Scott St. George, Dave Meko, Martin Girardin, Erik Nielsen, Greg Pederson, Dave Sauchyn, Jac Tardif, and Emma Watson The tree-ring record of summer drought in the Canadian Prairies Journal of Climate, in press
    • does the past really matter?
    • 3 main applications
    • climate change YOU CAN TOUCH
    • BENCHMARKS for recent events and trends
    • starting points for ‘paleo’ scenarios 91
    • VIC BAKER UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
    • “ HAPPEN AGAIN Common sense holds that what has really happened CAN VIC BAKER UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
    • F U TURE DI REC TION S
    • Prairie tree-ring network
    • northwestern Ontario 3 6 2 4 1 Ringwidth 2 PDSI 0 0 -2 -1 -4 r = 0.40 -2 -6 -3 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 St. George et al., (accepted), Journal of Climate Year (A.D.) 95
    • Can we do better ?
    • drought f ring width
    • drought f ring width ring chemistry
    • drought f ring width ring chemistry ring density
    • CLIMATE direct direct PROXIES HYDROLOGY indirect
    • HYDROLOGY
    • ? climate change geological
    • The frequency, severity and causes of extreme droughts in the Winnipeg River basin Scott St. George Geological Survey of Canada