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Predicting the Housing Market with Buyer & Seller Psychology (Predictive Analytics Summit 2010)
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Predicting the Housing Market with Buyer & Seller Psychology (Predictive Analytics Summit 2010)

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Presented by Scott Sambucci (Altos Research) at the IE Group's Predictive Analytics Summit, "Predicting the Housing Market with Buyer & Seller Psychology" reviews real-time and leading housing market …

Presented by Scott Sambucci (Altos Research) at the IE Group's Predictive Analytics Summit, "Predicting the Housing Market with Buyer & Seller Psychology" reviews real-time and leading housing market indicators to predict future home prices.

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  • 1. PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS SUMMIT Scott Sambucci, Altos Research November 2010 | San Francisco, CA
  • 2. WHO, WHAT, WHERE, WHEN, WHY & HOW• Altos Research• Real-time housing market analytics• 180+ metros, 20,000 zip codes• What is happening & what will happen, not what happened• Wisdom of crowds• The Active Market to forecast future market activity
  • 3. APPLICATIONS OF REAL-TIME ANALYTICS• Current Market Conditions• Future Housing Prices• Consumer Sentiment• Mortgage Default Rates• Financial Market
  • 4. MISLEADING NATURE OF TRANSACTION PRICES
  • 5. MIAMI CONDOS: MARKET IMPROVED IN 2009? Did values really moved higher? The actives knew the market was weak
  • 6. PREDICTING FUTURE PRICES SPCS20R Active Prices 205.00 $445,000 195.00 $425,000 185.00 $405,000 175.00 165.00 $385,000 155.00 $365,000 145.00 $345,000 135.00 125.00 $325,000
  • 7. QE2 & THE HOUSING MARKET: SUPPLY & DEMANDPROBLEM
  • 8. CONSUMER SENTIMENT & HOUSING
  • 9. MORTGAGES 60 DAYS DELINQUENT FOR THEFIRST TIME
  • 10. FICO & LTVS – BECOMING IRRELEVANT
  • 11. DELINQUENCIES PEAK AT MARKET TROUGH New delinquencies perfectly correlated to market conditions
  • 12. MORTGAGE DEFAULT RATES & MARKET CONDITIONS New delinquencies perfectly correlated to market conditions
  • 13. THE HOUSING MARKET & THE S&P 500 S&P 500 Active Prices1,500.00 $415,0001,400.00 $405,0001,300.00 $395,0001,200.00 $385,0001,100.00 $375,0001,000.00 $365,000 900.00 $355,000 800.00 700.00 $345,000 600.00 $335,000 500.00 $325,000
  • 14. CONTACTScott Sambucci, VP Data AnalyticsAltos Researchwww.altosresearch.com(415) 931-7942scott@altosresearch.comhttp://blog.altosresearch.com@scottsambucci
  • 15. PROPERTY TAXEShttp://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2010/10/real-estate-and-municipal-revenue.html