Leading the Case-Shiller HPI with Altos Research Housing Market Indicators
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Leading the Case-Shiller HPI with Altos Research Housing Market Indicators

on

  • 897 views

The Altos Research housing market leading indicators provides our clients with a 60-day lead on the Case-Shiller national and regional housing composites. These indicators are available by metro, ...

The Altos Research housing market leading indicators provides our clients with a 60-day lead on the Case-Shiller national and regional housing composites. These indicators are available by metro, city, and zip code for use in default risk modeling, RMBS portfolio valuations, whole loan assessments, and LTVs. Contact Scott Sambucci with questions about our market analytics. [scott@altosresearch.com | (415) 931 7942]

Statistics

Views

Total Views
897
Views on SlideShare
893
Embed Views
4

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
11
Comments
0

2 Embeds 4

http://www.slideshare.net 3
http://www.slashdocs.com 1

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment
  • Turns out that the residential real estate market is extremely efficient – slow compared to financial markets – but efficient. Transactions are generally grouped by week or month, instead of minute-by-minute. Sellers change the asking prices based on buyer behavior. A seller that sees little or no activity on their listed home will usually respond with a price reduction within a 1-3 month period. Alternately, homes price closer to the buyer strike price will move rapidly off of the market

Leading the Case-Shiller HPI with Altos Research Housing Market Indicators Leading the Case-Shiller HPI with Altos Research Housing Market Indicators Presentation Transcript

  • Altos Research Real-Time Housing Market Indicators
    Leading the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
  • Leading the Case-Shiller HPI
    S&P/Case-Shiller HPI is reported with a 60-day lag, and subject to revision
    Altos Research real-time housing indicators are compared to:
    Calendar time event
    Reported time event
    Leading indicators provide 2-8 month forecast of trend and magnitude changes in the CS HPI
  • Supply & Demand Indicators
    Median Price
    Asking price of available on-market/active listings.
    Positively correlated to CS with 3-4 month lead time.
    Price of New Listings
    Asking price of each week’s new market supply.
    Positively correlated with 4-5 month lead time.
    Price of Listings Absorbed
    Proxy for sold prices. Properties exit the market, then typically close 60-120 days later.
    Percent Price Decreased
    Percentage of active sellers who have take at least one price reduction in most recent 90-day period
    Negatively correlated with 4-8 month lead time.
    Inventory
    Total count of active listings
    Negatively correlated with 2-6 month lead time.
  • Additional Leading Indicators
    Days-on-market (mean & median)
    Time-on-market to determine future price forecasting period
    Market Action Index
    Market absorption rate
    Percent Relisted
    Seller psychology indicator.
    Magnitude Price Decrease
    Measures amount of seller price reductions
    Year-on-Year Measures (Price, DOM, Inventory)
  • Today’s on-market prices lead tomorrow’s transaction prices
  • Today’s price reduction means lower transaction prices tomorrow…
    Increasing number of price reductions indicate market weakness ahead - leads to lower future prices.
  • …While new sellers enter the market to influence future prices
  • Supply levels affect prices
  • Seattle (SEXR)
  • Seattle Price Reductions
  • Chicago (CHXR)
  • Chicago Price Reductions
  • Chicago Inventory
  • Los Angeles (LXXR)
  • Contact Altos Research
    Scott Sambucci, VP Data Analytics
    O: (415) 931-7942
    M: (415) 596-0804
    E: scott@altosresearch.com
    B: http://blog.altosresearch.com
    W: www.altosresearch.com