2010 Housing Market Leading Indicators, presented by Altos Research
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Presentations slides from the "2010 Housing Market Leading Indicators, presented by Altos Research" webinar hosted by Scott Sambucci, VP of Data Analytics with Altos Research on January 27, 2010, ...

Presentations slides from the "2010 Housing Market Leading Indicators, presented by Altos Research" webinar hosted by Scott Sambucci, VP of Data Analytics with Altos Research on January 27, 2010, examining early housing market trends emerging in 2010.

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2010 Housing Market Leading Indicators, presented by Altos Research Document Transcript

  • 1. 2010 Housing Market Who’s with you today? Leading Indicators Scott Sambucci, VP, Data Analytics presented by  scott@altosresearch.com Altos Research  (415) 931 7942 - direct  http://blog.altosresearch.com  Twitter: @AltosResearch Scott Macwhinnie, Sales Manager, Institutional & Corporate Markets EMERGING TRENDS IN THE 2010  scottm@altosresearch.com HOUSING MARKET  (646) 435-1100- direct Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 2 Altos 10-City Composite Grab you coffee… Lots to cover  Altos Research Seller Confidence Indicators  Pending Mortgage Market Effects  S&P/Case-Shiller HPI  Selected Regional & Metro Trends  (including the reason why being a Cubs fan isn’t the worst thing about living in Chicago…) Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 3 Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 4 1
  • 2. Sellers show the way Price Discovery Trends Price Reductions: Elevated but improving Price vs. Inventory 2
  • 3. The Lagging Luxury Market Quartile 1: Most expensive 25% of properties Quartile 2: Top Middle 25% Quartile 3: Bottom Middle 25% Quartile 4: Least expensive 25% of properties Example: 80 homes for sale in a market (city or zip code)  4 "quartiles" (groups) each have 20 properties based on individual property prices.  Allows for market definition by price, not just geography Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 9 The Washington Post: “Stakes are high as government plans exit from mortgage markets” "We did what we thought was necessary to stabilize the market, but we don't think the government should continue special efforts forever," said Michael S. Barr, an assistant secretary at the Treasury Department. "As you bring stability, private participants come back in. We do expect this now that the market has stabilized. I'm not going to say there will be no effect on rates, but we do think you are seeing market signs and market signals that there should be an orderly transition." When Fed stops funding mortgages, there’s a scenario that says “everything stops” Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 12 3
  • 4. S&P/Case ShillerHPI Altos 10-City Composite: Leading the SPCSI by 3-4 months  Oct ‘09 released on  Nov ‘09 released on Median Ask Price Case-Shiller 12/29/09: Reported up 1/26/09: Down $560,000 230 220 0.2%, fractionally $540,000 210 $520,000 200  Oct ‘09 revised on  14 of 20 markets 190 $500,000 1/26/20: Now down moved negatively in 180 $480,000 170 fractionally November 160 $460,000  Altos – Trough in Jan,  By we already knew $440,000 150 140 peak in June that… How?... $420,000 130 date Feb-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Apr-09 Jun-09 Apr-08 Jun-08 Apr-07 Jun-07  CS - Trough April, in Peak in Sept Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 14 New sellers expecting lower sales prices San Francisco-Oakland MSA One of six SPCSI markets that moved positively in Nov ’09 SF List Prices peaked in Nov ‘09 4
  • 5. Los Angeles-Orange County MSA Los Angeles MSA: New Sellers One of six SPCSI markets that moved positively in Nov ’09 Prices held steady through most of Fall ‘09 Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 18 Phoenix MSA Phoenix: New Sellers less confident One of six SPCSI markets that moved positively in Nov ’09 Peaked in July, but… Short sales/REOs take longer to close 5
  • 6. Scottsdale’s Lagging Luxury Market… Atlanta MSA  Spring ‘09 gains gone– back to Jan 2009 price levels  ATXR peaked in August, reported November It’s bad enough being a Cubs fan... City Trends ≠ MSA Trends Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 23 6
  • 7. The Northwest: Seattle & Portland Grab an umbrella… Strong stock market through 2008 2009 Market: Cause & Effect? 2010 – Now What?  Fed will stop supporting mortgage markets  Price Floor Evidence  Are private lenders going to pick up the slack?  Will RMBS resume to off-load risk?  Stimulus Response  The Annual Macy’s Sale, er, Home buyer tax  Government Mortgage Rates credit re-expires in April ’10  Expect ST strength through July/August as homes going to contract in April close, then fall off in latter half of 2010 Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 27 Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 28 7
  • 8. And then…? The 2011 Crystal Ball  Supply & Demand metrics  Prices start the same by year end 2010  Shadow inventory  Double dip recession means we’re exactly the same place in Jan ‘11 as now.  Infrastructure & Political Will  Even with significant economic recovery, economists generally agreed that massive private lending expansion required, which is clearly not evident right now Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 29 Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 30 And Finally… Give us a call Scott Sambucci, VP, Data Analytics  Altos Research RE Derivatives Report  scott@altosresearch.com  Stats Datasheet for the fellow “data geeks”  (415) 931 7942 - direct out there  http://blog.altosresearch.com  Invitation to view of Data & Market Analytics  Twitter: @AltosResearch Platform Scott Macwhinnie, Sales Manager, Institutional  Attending the American Securitization Forum & Corporate Markets next week? Let us know.  scottm@altosresearch.com  Check out http://blog.altosresearch.com  646-435-1100- direct Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 31 Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 32 8