There is no longer meaningful debate whether man-made climate change is a reality. Climate sceptics, without concern for the facts, will continue feed the medias insatiable appetite for controversy - just as the tobacco industry once did to defend cigarettes against the overwhelming evidence of their harm. But Government’s and scientists globally have been persuaded by the overwhelming evidence. The Inter-Governmental panel on Climate Change is clear stating in its recently publish 4 th Report that ” Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.” The scale of the risk was made clear by the Government’s former Chief Scientist, Sir David King, when in 2004 he famously stated “ Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today, more serious even than the threat of terrorism.“ The 2007 IPCC report however appears to have underestimated the rate of warming and global change
Beyond 2020 greater reductions in C-emissions are unlikely to be met by further efficiency improvements – alternative fuels needed Slide shows how emissions reductions achieved IEA Act and Blue Map scenarios Remember Act 3-5 deg warming; Blue 2-3 Act 70% efficiency ; 22 % bio ; 9% elect Blue 52% effic ; 17% bio ; 31% elect & H2 IEA also ACT scenario most likely end point of current policies – focused upon improving tail-pipe CO2 & efficiency of driving. To avoid dangerous climate change increased penetration RTFs essential – question is which fuel?
There are a number of criteria which must be met before RTF can compete with petroleum Tech Readiness – reliable; acceptable veh performance / range Are both purchase & running cost competitive – car buyers don’t do, or believe complex life-cycle calcs Are vehicles available – 12 yrs after 1 st hybrid 5 models UK Is infrastructure available – people wont buy if refuelling is inconvenient ; will begin with return to depot but for more widespread adoption public £ needed initially – don’t Q whether public money should be spent on roads Is the product acceptable to a good share drivers – not 10% early adopters - greens and technophiles but majority o drivers – concerned with image; performance; etc Is the fuel genuinely sustainable Look across fuels considered today + EVs honest answer is NO – except 1 st G biofuels – which have sustainability concerns Biomethane – closest ; 2 nd G & EVs ; H2 further
Government statistics indicate lorries and vans represent 35% of UK transport emissions (where international emissions are excluded). Cars are the largest source and unsurprisingly have, to date been the focus of public attention and policy making to reduce emissions. The efforts being directed by Government at reducing emissions from lorries and vans is disproportionately low for their net contribution to emissions. Government statistics show the use of vans has resulted in a 50% increase in emissions since 1990 so that these now account for 13% of domestic transport emissions. Lorries currently account for 22% of transport emissions and have grown by almost a third over the same period. The high level statistics contain uncertainty highlighted in the recent report on Transport and CO2 by the Commission on Integrated Transport. This showed that the trend emissions figures for lorries and vans can vary by a factor of 3, depending on the data deployed. It is nevertheless indisputable that emissions for both HGVs and Vans are rising and are the principal reason for rising road transport emissions since the improvements in car efficiency have tended to offset the increased number and average distance driven by passenger cars. Biomethane - Low carbon, Low running costs Limited but growing range of NG van - Caddy (VW), Sprinter (Merc), Daily (Iveco) RH drive trucks now becoming available - Econic (Merc), Dual-fuel options - Hardstaff, Cleanair Power Limited infrastructure - Dual fuel options or depot refuelling High purchase cost - +c£20k truck
From 09.09 200 buses in Oslo Sweden has around 15,000 NGVs with 55% of the fuel from biomethane and 15 Swedish cities having biomethane powered bus fleets, such as Stockholm (photo below) which is replacing bioethanol fueled buses to move to 100% biomethane fueled from 2009 Lille in France has operated 127 of the region’s bus fleet on biomethane proving the reliability and cost-effectiveness and aim to move 100% of their bus fleet to biomethane by 2011
This is not a surprising outcome but recent history is littered with technologies which have been hailed as a silver bullet for Tackling transport CO2 emissions – technology fix that avoids the need to address less palatable options – like the need to manage demand for transport Explain images All have great potential – none are a panacea Our efforts need to be directed as readying the market for the transformation that must come in road transport 2020-2040 – such as huge undertaking
The evidence of global warming is now unequivocal and accepted by Government’s and scientists globally. The Stern Report, IPCC 4 th Report and Bali Declaration makes a strong successor to Kyoto increasingly likely with the new US President likely to be significantly more supportive. The EU and UK are leading demands for global emissions reductions and implementing policies across all sectors to lower emissions to meet binding and increasingly demanding targets To date, commercial vehicles have been largely unimpacted by carbon constraints, but: Transport and commercial vehicles specifically are a growing and important source of GHG emissions Public pressure and corporate responsibility is increasingly demanding lower carbon intensity freight movement Road haulage is a highly carbon intensive mode Efficiency improvements to date are modest The political appetite to regulation has been strengthened by the proposals for cars making EU regulation on commercial vehicles increasingly likely. Truck / van brands will increasingly need to differentiate their performance based upon their efficiency and in particular produce vehicles with different technology tailored to different applications and markets such as urban delivery. The Eco-Van/Lorry Challenge is an important initiative to stimulate innovation and I am delighted to support such an important initiative.
Keynote Biomethane A Renewable Fuel Greg Archer Low C V P
The role of alternative fuels (including biomethane) in reducing transport emissions UK National Biomethane Conference 4 th June 2009 Greg Archer Managing Director, Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership
Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership Accelerating a sustainable shift to low carbon vehicles and fuels in the UK Stimulating opportunities for UK businesses
A quick plug ! <ul><li>The climate imperative </li></ul><ul><li>Auto-industry support - investing in a sustainable industry or bailing out past failures? </li></ul><ul><li>Advanced and alternative fuels - including electric solutions </li></ul><ul><li>Cutting road transport carbon driving local action </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic marketing and technical approaches to delivering the car CO2 targets </li></ul><ul><li>What Car? Green Awards and Revolve Brighton to London Eco-Rally </li></ul><ul><li>Vehicle displays and inside exhibitions </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Open mic’ session </li></ul>
Scope <ul><li>The scale of the challenge </li></ul><ul><li>The need for renewable fuels </li></ul><ul><li>Biomethane opportunities in transport </li></ul><ul><li>New legislative developments </li></ul><ul><ul><li>RTFO </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>EU Directives </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bus Service Operators Grant </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The way forward </li></ul>
“ Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level“ IPCC 2007
Continuing transport emission growth will consume the entire EU CO2 emissions cap for 2050 DGENV 2009
To 2020 most transport emissions reductions will be delivered by vehicle efficiency improvements - Beyond 2020 further decarbonisation of transport will require significant penetration of renewable fuels - More ambitious emissions reductions require greater penetration of renewable fuels IEA 2008, Energy Technology Status and Outlook
There are currently issues with all alternative fuels ….. but opportunities exist in specific niche sectors The relative scores do not represent LowCVP policy 1 st G Bio 2 nd G Bio Driver acceptability Sustainability Infrastructure deployment Vehicle availability Cost competitiveness Technology readiness EV Bio-CH4 H2-FCV H2-IC Criteria
Lorries, vans and buses represents 38% of UK transport sector emissions – Biomethane offers a promising way to reduce emissions DfT 2008
The small amounts of biogas supplied through the RTFO are sustainable 69% 100% 100% 0.03% Biogas 70% 1% 18% 16% Bioethanol 42% 16% 18% 84% Biodiesel % GHG-saving % meeting acceptable social perf % meeting acceptable env perf % Volume Fuel
EU Renewable Energy and Fuel Quality Directives provide further support for sustainable biofuels (including biomethane) <ul><li>Target of 10% renewable energy in transport by 2020.Transposition deadline likely November 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Biofuels must fulfil the sustainability criteria </li></ul><ul><ul><li>minimum GHG savings of 35%, rising to 60% by 2018 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>not from land with high biodiversity, primary forest, carbon stocks, wetlands </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>information on measures taken for soil, water and air protection – comitology </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Complementary Fuel Quality Directive (FQD) requires fuel suppliers to reduce the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of road transport fuels </li></ul><ul><ul><li>6% reduction by 2020 relative to a baseline of the EU average figure in 2010 </li></ul></ul>
Biomethane buses receive additional support under new UK subsidy arrangements <ul><li>Natural gas buses receive 100% duty exemption (19.26p/ kg) </li></ul><ul><li>From 2010-13 the duty differential on NG will be retained </li></ul><ul><li>Biogas buses now receive additional 6p/km payment as a low carbon emission bus </li></ul><ul><ul><li>c£3k pa </li></ul></ul>
Recent history shows there are no “silver bullets” - Government should support a portfolio of promising solutions 2008 2006 Recent fashions in low carbon vehicle technologies 2004
In conclusion …. <ul><li>Evidence of accelerating, “dangerous climate change” is growing </li></ul><ul><li>Growing transport emissions would consume the entire EU CO2 budget by 2050 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Vans, trucks and buses emit over a third of UK transport CO2 emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Renewable fuels will make an important contribution to decarbonising transport </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Biomethane has considerable potential for commercial vehicles and buses - in the right applications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>RTFO demonstrates biomethane is sustainable – but currently only supplied in small volumes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New low carbon emission bus subsidy for biogas gases </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New EU directives support biofuels with good GHG-savings </li></ul></ul><ul><li>There are no silver bullets and technology alone will not sufficiently reduce transport emissions </li></ul><ul><li>LowCVP is keen to work with the industry to find ways to accelerate the use of biomethane for transport </li></ul>
Any Questions? 020 3178 7860 The Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership [email_address] www.lowcvp.org.uk
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