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ICCT Global Transportation Overview

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Overview, scope of work, and preliminary conclusions of ICCT's Global Transportation Roadmap.

Overview, scope of work, and preliminary conclusions of ICCT's Global Transportation Roadmap.

Published in: Technology, Business
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  • 1. Pollutants The Roadmap is a tool to help policymakers • Local air pollutants (NOx, SOx, CO, PM) worldwide identify and understand trends in • GHGs (CO2, CH4, N2O) the transportation sector, assess emission impacts of different policy options, and Modes frame plans to effectively reduce emissions • On-road (LDVs, buses, 2 and 3 wheelers, HDTs) • Rail of both greenhouse gases (GHGs) and local • Marine (domestic/international) air pollutants. • Aviation (domestic/international) The core of the Roadmap is a spreadsheet- Regions based model developed in Microsoft Excel • United States, EU-27, China, India, Japan, Brazil, that calculates historical and future well-to- South Korea, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Russia, wheel (WTW) emissions from the Rest of Latin America, Rest of Europe, Rest of Asia-Pacific, Middle-East, and Africa. transportation sector for different policy scenarios. Years • 2000 to 2050 in 5-year increments The Roadmap compares the effects of policies that have been adopted and those that are under active discussion with the Outputs • WTW/WTT/TTW emissions policy potential for the largest vehicle • Energy consumption markets. • Vehicle stock and sales Slide 2
  • 2. NON MODE-SPECIFIC MODE-SPECIFIC INPUT PARAMETERS AND OUTPUTSINPUT PARAMETERS CALCULATIONS LDV INPUTS LDV CALCULATIONS BUS INPUTS BUS CALCULATIONS POLICY LEVERS 2-WHEELERS 2-WHEELERS INPUTS CALCULATIONS 3-WHEELERS 3-WHEELERS SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODULE INPUTS CALCULATIONS MODEL OUTPUTS LHDT INPUTS LHDT CALCULATIONS TURNOVER MODULE SUMMARY OF OUTPUTS MHDT INPUTS MHDT CALCULATIONS COUNTRY FUEL INPUTS DASHBOARD HHDT INPUTS HHDT CALCULATIONS SYSTEM CONFIGURATION PASSENGER RAIL INPUTS / CALCULATIONS FREIGHT RAIL INPUTS / CALCULATIONS AVIATION INPUTS / CALCULATIONS WATERBORNE INPUTS / CALCULATIONS 3
  • 3. LEGEND SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS INPUTS CALCULATION S OUTPUTS TRANSPORTATION ACTIVITY ∞ TURNOVER ALGORITHMVEHICLE SALES ∞ VEHICLE VEHICLE ∞ VEHICLE BY ACTIVITY POPULATION SALES TECHNOLOGY NEW FLEET ENERGY ∞ EFFICIENCY FUEL TTW EMISSION ∞ EMISSION CONSUMPTION STANDARDS FACTORSFUEL BLENDS WTT WTT TTW EMISSION EMISSIONS EMISSIONS FACTORS WTW EMISSIONS 4
  • 4. IMPROVE• Vehicle efficiency improvements• Faster introduction of emission standards• “Decarbonization” of fuels and electricity• Low sulfur fuelsAVOID• Transportation activity reduction through travel demand management, land-use policies, and improvements in efficiency of passenger and freight transportation systems.SHIFT• Mode shift to less energy-intensive modes (passenger and freight). 5
  • 5. 2030 GHG SAVINGS (GtCO2e) 16 NO POLICIES CASE ADOPTED POLICIES Assumes no policies adopted post Includes existing, enforceable and 2000. Intended only to be used for finalized regulations but assumes quantification of Adopted Policies. no further changes. 1.7 14 POLICY PIPELINE POLICY POTENTIAL 1.3 Considers all policies under active Includes technically feasible 12 regulatory development or that policies and plausible regulatory exist as formal, stated policy goals. timelines, without any consideration of political will. 10 2.5Gt CO2e 8 6 Adopted policies and those in the pipeline are not sufficient to revert the 50% REDUCTION FROM 2000 LEVELS 4 trend in increasing transportation emissions. The Policy Potential more than doubles the possible GHG savings 2 and results in relatively stable emissions 85% REDUCTION FROM 2000 LEVELS out to 2030. - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 6
  • 6. Transportation policies have the potential to reduce GHG emissions by 35% in 2030 (from a 2030 baseline assuming no transportation policies), equivalent to a total reduction of 5.5 GtCO2e. 6.0 Adopted Policies 5.0 Policy Pipeline Policy PotentialCO2 Savings (Gt CO2e) 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 - 2015 2020 2025 2030 7
  • 7. ADOPTED POLICIES POLICY PIPELINEThe majority of adopted policies in the Policies in the pipeline continue the successfultransportation sector have targeted efficiency approach of vehicle efficiency standardsstandards for light and heavy-duty vehicles, and expanding light and heavy-duty standards intowaterborne vessels. These are expected to additional regions and adding aircraftresult in substantial emission savings –1.7 standards. The pipeline also includesGtCO2e in 2030. investments in public transit and freight rail. Combined, these policies are expected to result in savings of 1.3 GtCO2e in 2030. Breakdown of GHG Savings Breakdown of GHG Savings from from Adopted Policies in 2030 Policy Pipeline in 2030 Aviation 5% Waterb orne Mode 20% Shift 16% HDV LDV 7% 49% LDV 73% HDV 30% 8
  • 8. Economic and demographic trends have some effect – either positive or negative depending on theregion – on the efficiency of the transportation system. However, most of the impact on transportationefficiency improvement is expected from policies. An example below is provided for the U.S., showinghow transportation policies have the potential to substantially improve how regions move people andfreight. 0.14 2010 0.12 2030 Adopted 2030 Policy Policies Pipeline 0.10 CO2e/ton-km 0.08 2030 Policy Potential 2030 No Policies 0.06 0.04 2030 Benchmark BUBBLE SIZE: 0.02 CO2e Emissions 0.00 - 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 9 CO2e/pas-km
  • 9.  10

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