Evolution of Heavy-Duty Vehicle GHG and Fuel Economy Standards
Advanced vehicle technologies
1. The Potential Role of Hydrogen and
Fuel Cells in Solving the Climate,
Environmental and Energy
Challenges.
Alan C. Lloyd, Ph.D.
President, International Council on Clean Transportation
Joint 12th IPHE Implementation and Liaison (ILC)
& Steering Committee (SC) Meeting
December 2, 2009
2. International Council on Clean Transportation
Goal of the ICCT is to dramatically reduce
conventional pollutant and greenhouse gas
emissions from all transportation sources in
order to improve air quality and human
health, and mitigate climate change.
Promotes best practices and comprehensive
solutions to:
– Improve vehicle emissions and efficiency
– Increase fuel quality and sustainability of
alternative fuels
– Reduce pollution from the in-use fleet, and
– Curtail emissions from international goods
movement.
The Council is made up of leading
regulators and experts from around the
world."
www.theicct.org Slide 2
3. Outline
Introduction and background
Changing global landscape
Market deployment opportunities
Fuel cell transportation applications
Stationary energy generation opportunities
Future needs and prognosis
Slide 3
4. Motivation for Deploying Zero to Near
Zero Emission Technologies
Conventional air
and other Pollution
Potential dramatic
GHG reduction
Energy security/
independence
issues
5. Augmenting CO2: Control to
Mitigate Climate Change
In addition to CO2 reduction, need more “fast
action” policies (Molina et al. 2009)
Reduction of HFCS with high GWP
Reduction of precursor gases to ozone formation
Reduction of black carbon (B.C. and/or soot)
Strong link between conventional pollutants and
GHG
Slide 5
6. Share of Global Black Carbon
Emissions from all Sources in 2000
Source: Bond, T.. (2009) Black carbon: Emission sources and prioritization. Presentation at the 2009 International
Workshop on Black Carbon. 5-6 Jan 2009. London, UK.
7. Global Warming Potential (GWP)
Estimated from IPCC 2007
GWP20 GWP100 GWP500
Black carbon 1600 460 140
Methane 72 25 7.6
Nitrous oxide 289 298 153
Sulfur oxides -140 -40 -12
Organic carbon -240 -69 -21
Carbon dioxide 1 1 1
Source: ICCT (2009) A Policy-relevant Summary of Black Carbon Climate Science and Appropriate Emission
Control Strategies. Available online at http://www.theicct.org
Note: The methodology used for black carbon was also used for organic carbon and sulfur oxides. Values for
black carbon, organic carbon and sulfur oxides were not published by the IPCC and are not official estimates.
8. Global Demand for Cars
COUNTRY POPULATION (Millions) CARS per 1000 people
Italy 58.2 595
Germany 82.7 565
Canada 32.9 561
Australia 20.6 507
France 60.9 496
Sweden 9.1 462
USA 303.9 461
UK 60.0 457
Japan 128.3 441
Norway 4.7 439
S. Korea 48.1 240
India 1,135.6 8
Kenya / Philippines 36.0 / 85.9 9
China 1,331.4 18
Slide 8
9. Expected Economic Growth
Country GDP Growth % 2010
China 8.6
India 6.3
Vietnam 6.0
France 0.9
Germany 0.5
UK 0.6
Canada 2.0
USA 2.4
Brazil 3.8
Source: Economist 2009
Slide 9
10. Market Deployment Opportunities
Global environment and climate challenges require
actions to increase efficiency and decarbonize fuels
Magnitude of challenge will require sustained effort
to dramatically reduce pollution and GHG
Hydrogen in transportation and stationary
applications can play a role – how significant
depends on policies and actions in the next few
years
Slide 10
11. Source: Honda Fuel Cell Vehicle Activities presentation by Stephen Ellis,
Manager FCV Marketing
Slide 11
12. Transportation Applications
Most H2 applications will use fuel cell
vehicles
H2 ICE also being demonstrated by BMW
and Mazda
H2 also being used in heavy duty engines in
blends with CNG
Slide 12
13. Source: Overview of Mazda Hydrogen Vehicles, DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cell
Technical Advisory Committee
Slide 13
14. Source: Overview of Mazda Hydrogen Vehicles, DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cell
Technical Advisory Committee
Slide 14
15. Source: Overview of Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Activities by Sunita Satyapal,
Acting Program Manager, DOE Fuel Cell Technologies Program
Slide 15
16. Well-to-Wheels Comparison of
Future (2035) Propulsion Systems
Need Lower
Carbon Fuels
Need Lower
Carbon Electricity
» MIT
On
the
Road
in
2035
16
17. Challenges: Liquid Fuel Advantage
ENERGY FUTURE: Think Efficiency
Energy density per Energy density per weight
volume
kWh/liter vs gasoline KWh/kg vs gasoline
Gasoline 9.7 13.2
Diesel fuel 10.7 110% 12.7 96%
Ethanol 6.4 66% 7.9 60%
Hydrogen at 10,000 psi 1.3 13% 39 295%
Liquid hydrogen 2.6 27% 39 295%
NiMH battery 0.1-0.3 2.1% 0.1 0.8%
Lithium-ion battery (present time) 0.2 2.1% 0.14 1.1%
Lithium-ion battery (future) 0.28 ? 2.1%
Source: American Physical Society, Sept. 2008, Chapter 2, Table 1
17
19. Source: On the Road to Sustainable Mobility – Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles by
Michael Schweizer, Product Management – Advanced Product Planning
Mercedes- Benz USA
Slide 19
20. Challenges: Development
Potential barriers to new propulsion systems
– Higher vehicle first cost
• Learning & economies of scale not realized
– Fueling
• Storage, infrastructure, range issues
• May be higher or lower (electricity) cost
– Safety, reliability, durability concerns Courtesy AC Transit
– Customer lack of awareness & risk aversion
– Manufacturers risk aversion
– Sunk capital costs in current technology Daimler Fuel Cell Vehicle
21. Source: Overview of Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Activities by Sunita Satyapal,
Acting Program Manager, DOE Fuel Cell Technologies Program
Slide 21
22. Challenges: Commercialization
Production build-up issues in addition to potential
development barriers:
– Development lead times and availability across
product platforms
– Capital investment required
– Supply of critical systems/components
– Capacity utilization
Competition from continuing improvements
from conventional technologies
23. Source: GM HTAC Review Automotive Fuel Cells by Keith Cole, Director Advanced
Technology Vehicle Strategy & Legislative Affairs
Slide 23
24. Source: On the Road to Sustainable Mobility – Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles by Michael Schweizer, Product
Management – Advanced Product Planning Mercedes- Benz USA
Slide 24
25. Stationary Source Applications
Rifkin Third Industrial Revolution Concept;
– Buildings as renewable energy sources
– Smart grid
– Hydrogen as storage, potential link with transportation
Portable Power
– Small consumer electronics (mobile phones, laptops)
– Micro fuel cells
Large fuel cells
– FC energy deployment
– UTC applications
Fork lifts
Telecom back-up power
Slide 25
26. Sierra Nevada Brewing Co. – Chico, California, USA
Natural or bio-gas is fed to the Fuel Cell , where hydrogen gas is extracted and combined
with oxygen from the air to produce electricity, heat, and water. Heat is then recovered
and used to heat water for brewing and the electricity is used throughout the brewery.
Fuel Cells are efficient, quiet, and produce extremely low emissions.
Completed one of the largest fuel cell installation in the United States - installing four
250-kilowatt co-generation fuel cell power units to supply electric power and heat to the
brewery.
Slide 26
27. Solutions
Extended Run Backup Power
Telecom Base Transceiver Stations
UPS
Highway/Railway Signaling and Communications
Surveillance, Sensing, Pumping, SCADA
Source: IdaTech 2009
29. Hydrogen Energy California (HECA)
Project: Hydrogen-fuelled power plant with carbon capture and sequestration
combined enhanced oil recovery
Location: Kern County, California, USA
Partners:
Type: Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) with carbon capture and
sequestration combined with enhanced oil recovery
Output: 390 gross MW
Feedstock: Petroleum coke and coal as needed
CO2 capture: Over 2 million tons per year
Projected construction start: 2011
Projected target completion: 2015
Status: Applied for California Energy Commission permit in 2009
Source: http://www.hydrogenenergy.com/content_329_kern_county_california
Slide 29
30. Source: (Revised) Application for Certification for Hydrogen Energy California Kern County,
California by URS Hydrogen Energy International, Submitted to California Energy
Commission
Slide 30
31. Top Emitters of GHGs in California,
2008 (In Metric Tons)
1. Chevron Refinery, Richmond: 4,792,052
2. Shell Oil Refinery, Martinez: 4,570,475
3. BP Refinery, Carson: 4,504,286
4. Chevron Refinery, El Segundo: 3,603, 446
5. Dynegy Power Plant, Moss Landing: 2,962,149
6. Exxon Refinery, Torrance: 2,852,374
7. Valero Refinery, Benicia: 2,796,057
8. Tesoro Refinery, Martinez: 2,703,145
9. Southern California Edison – Mountain View Power Plant, Redlands:
2,697,142
10. La Paloma Power Plant, McKittrick: 2,544,398
Source: California Air Resources Board
Slide 31
32. Conclusions
Environmental, climate and energy challenges present an excellent
opportunity for H2 and fuel cells
Market potential has to recognize advancement in conventional
technologies
Need clean advanced technologies and fuels including light weight
platforms for transportation
Cost will continue to be a major issue as with most “game- changing”
technologies, e.g. batteries and fuel cells, cost and infrastructure will
pose significant challenges
Close cooperation between government and industry, and among nations
will be required over a sustained period
Slide 32
33. Global Risk, Global Action
“When I began looking at the subject of climate
change, what I find first thing to hit me was
the magnitude of the risks and the potentially
devastating effects on the lives of people
across the world. We were gambling the
planet.”
-Sir Nicholas Stern
Blueprint for a Safer Planet, 2009
Slide 33
34. Global Actions
Global cooperation necessary to confront
environmental, climate and economic threats
IPHE is an example of such cooperation
Slide 34
